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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,901
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:52am Dec 1, 2016 9:52am
Quoting Lock
Please note the clean one single pip below B period low: weak hands there selling.
It was A period low (very sorry for that). I hope you understood what I was speaking about. It was the single pip left clean below A period low and above B period high. As any exact reference used to trade is a clear sign of the weak hands ruling. Weak hands are the only ones who know and use such exact references.
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  • #1,902
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:56am Dec 1, 2016 9:56am
C inside period of B: go with the break(if any) is the rule. If the break fails natural target opposite side of the balance.
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  • #1,903
  • Dec 1, 2016 9:57am Dec 1, 2016 9:57am
We got 3 periods closed below pit november highest high and no periods closed below pit november highest close
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  • #1,904
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:07am Dec 1, 2016 10:07am
Quoting Lock
C inside period of B: go with the break(if any) is the rule. If the break fails natural target opposite side of the balance.
D failed above inside period C and here we are at the opposite side of C. Now watch out if D will not be able to stay below the poor low.
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  • #1,905
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:30am Dec 1, 2016 10:30am
Lock, what is your interpretation at the moment....

Did we saw bigger timeframes kicking in at todays high at 1.2695 or is it still old-money?

If old-money..... (I believe then we now see a liquidation....?!) if true....then I think we are in a bigger balancing period from 11.11 to new low around 1.23 (just below this). If so then I think from there we possibly can expect bigger time-frames again
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,906
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:34am Dec 1, 2016 10:34am
This is what I wrote 3 hours ago:

Quoting Lock
{quote} The pit gap downside from 11.11 if upcoming pit will open around here will be a double pass gap. It is at 25255-25595. The minus developments left by current sharp fast move are at 2555-25595, 25665-2592 and 2598-26135. The highest GB november close is at 26043. The valley between the last 2 major composite pocs* is around 2586 * the closest major composite poc is at 26358. We got now 5...
So: where we are now?

The fact is that any price action is the consequence of what occurred before, specially how it occurred. We are watching clearly liquidation after a short covering. Only if the double pass gap will be preserved we could think at something bigger (meaning stronger) upside.
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  • #1,907
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:38am Dec 1, 2016 10:38am
I'm off for a while: if you are interested, re read all what I wrote from this morning. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
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  • #1,908
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:41pm Dec 1, 2016 12:41pm
Quoting Lock
This is what I wrote 3 hours ago: {quote} So: where we are now? The fact is that any price action is the consequence of what occurred before, specially how it occurred. We are watching clearly liquidation after a short covering. Only if the double pass gap will be preserved we could think at something bigger (meaning stronger) upside.
19:41+1GMT (edited untill 19:42)
The double pass is still in place but we got a cluster poor low at 25685 that I do not think could resist. Above we left F period high weak as it is a tag of the "earlymorning" low made by B period low* and the preUS poor high at 26955. The shape of the current profile lokks like a "b" and this seems to confirm that today we saw a liquidation.

London closed at 25945 just below the highest GB close of November (26043)

*this level is also the highest close for november pit session.
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  • #1,909
  • Dec 1, 2016 3:08pm Dec 1, 2016 3:08pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} 19:41+1GMT (edited untill 19:42) The double pass is still in place but we got a cluster poor low at 25685 that I do not think could resist. Above we left F period high weak as it is a tag of the "earlymorning" low made by B period low* [...]*this level is also the highest close for november pit session.
22:08+1GMT
So price took out the cluster poor low at 25685, then here we are back at the F period high/B period low/highest close for november pit session (25965). Let's see where it is going to close today.

I'm off. See you tomorrow. Best L.
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  • #1,910
  • Edited 3:14am Dec 2, 2016 3:00am | Edited 3:14am
16/12/02 FRIDAY 10:00+1GMT (edited untill 10:14)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

GB opened inside yesterday range(25036-26605)/value, below yesterday GB unchanged at 2645 and above GB close 25945: it is now at the highest November GB close 26043. So we are in balance with a substantial acceptation of yesterday prices. Balance and eventually test/s above and/or below yesterday range boundaries are expected for GB session.
Yesterday GB session didn't test the GB highest high of November at 2673 (that has been tested only by preUS session who left a poor high above it at 26955)

Yesterday pit session liquidated most of the GB sharp short covering upside leaving only one of the minus development left by GB at 2555-25595. Pit session was also not able to fill the double pass gap downside at 25255-25595.

So the nearest main references for today are (from up to down):

  1. the higher main composite poc at 2733;
  2. the yesterday preUS poor high at 26955;
  3. the GB November high at 2673;
  4. the old pit gap downside at 26645-27285;
  5. the closest composite poc at 2636;
  6. the main volume valley between composite pocs at 2584:
  7. the pit double pass gap at 25255-25595;
  8. the weekly breakeven at 25122;
  9. the lower main composite poc at 2417;

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  • #1,911
  • Dec 2, 2016 3:24am Dec 2, 2016 3:24am
10:24+1GMT
Note that B period close (Tokyo close) was at 26085, below the highest Tokyo close of November at 26153, but very close to it: great uncertainty here for Tokyo.
The same thing for GB we are just above the highest GB close for November and we still didn't test it: instead GB made a poor low just above it.
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  • #1,912
  • Dec 2, 2016 3:30am Dec 2, 2016 3:30am
C inside period of B
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  • #1,913
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:26am Dec 2, 2016 6:26am
Quoting Lock
C inside period of B
13:26+1GMT

Today GB session was a textbook one: C was inside period of B where B and C highs where both at initial half back; D attempted a break below C balance low, closed below highest GB november close and failed to close below yesterday GB close; here the most important thing for a day timeframe perspective, was the single pip left clean below B period low (early morning low) by initial E period high: who sell there? Only weak hands. So at that point in time you got a cluster of weak highs (B and C) at initial half back, a weak high just one pip short the early morning low (initial E period high) and a non acceptation below yesterday GB session close. Everything pointed upside.

Infact E came back inside C and went up to C period high (the opposite side of the balance), then F and G highs tagged both the same cluster of weak m30 highs previously established at initial half back (B and C highs) and then eventually H period took out the cluster establishing a poor high with previous A period high.

Now we are before news and in the last 2 periods of pure GB action before preUS open. E low is weak at yesterday GB close, G low is weak at highest GB close for November, H low is at half back and we got a poor high. Plus we are inside yesterday pit session range. A good place to perform a shake out removing a lot of weak hands clustering around current balance above and below: so watch out!
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  • #1,914
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:31am Dec 2, 2016 6:31am
I period inside H
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  • #1,915
  • Dec 2, 2016 12:53pm Dec 2, 2016 12:53pm
19:53+1GMT
Yesterday preUS poor high at 26955 taken out: above we still have the old pit gap downside up to 27285. But It's Friday and we had a grinding market all day long, meaning weak hands ruling the environment. So I'm off for today. See you next week. Best L.
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  • #1,916
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:30pm Dec 2, 2016 1:30pm
Hi Lock, I'm trying to understand the sentiment/ reason behind the early morning ABCE high at IB half back and almost all inside each other, why this points to an upside move. I see yesterdays half back was rejected and think I understand it's contribution. Can you say more, thanks. Zaak
  • #1,917
  • Dec 3, 2016 5:39am Dec 3, 2016 5:39am
Lock,
do you know what might be this market profile? it gives different profile then other indicators....

example: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post9294187
  • #1,918
  • Edited 4:21pm Dec 4, 2016 4:07pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting Zaak
Hi Lock, I'm trying to understand the sentiment/ reason behind the early morning ABCE high at IB half back and almost all inside each other, why this points to an upside move. I see yesterdays half back was rejected and think I understand it's contribution. Can you say more, thanks. Zaak
Hi Zaak,
GB started correcting the Tokyo session too long inventories (liquidation): it continued liquidating down to D period low. At that point in time you know the following things:

GB opened inside previous range/value (read for confirmation the erarly morning report): as you know when you opened inside previous session you may generally expect balance at least initially because this particular open could mean initial acceptation of previous session prices. So you know you probably are in a balance/rotational environment.

You saw that the C period was inside B and that a break out is expected in that situation, plus you also know that if you have a failure during a breakout in one particular direction the natural taget is the opposite side of the balance from wich price broke. So when you didn't see continuation below C balance you know that the odds are in favor to a correction back to the opposite side of C.

When D broke below C period low you know that B and C highs were both at initial half back, meaning an exact reference used generally by weak hands: so the break was suspect just for this reason.

E opened and went up just a pip below early morning low (B period low): an other exact reference used by weak hands.

RECAP:

  1. you know you are probably in a balance/rotational weak environment.
  2. you know that there are a lot of probability that the initial move downside was a liquidation of the overnight inventories too long.
  3. you know that the B and C periods high are both established by weak hands.
  4. consequently you know that the break downside is risky because is lead by weak hands.
  5. you know that the early E period high is, again a weak hands reference.
  6. you know that if a break failes in one direction the natural target is the opposite side of the balance (C period high) and you know that this particular opposite side of the balance is also weak.


CONSEQUENCE:

any market generated information at that moment in time indicated to you that there are good odds for a correction of this initial move downside and you know that you have space to come up at least above the C period high: because you know that the only resistance present in this particular situation is made/formed by weak hands stops.

RESULT:

E came up to C high, making that level even more weak than before. F tagged it making almost impossible for that level to resist (all the weak hands stops are infact just above it). G tagged it again and eventually H broke the level.
But it made an other weak high tagging the early morning high (A period high) that became a poor high. SO you have space for a further move above it, that in fact happened with the final J period after the new balance of inside period I.

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  • #1,919
  • Dec 4, 2016 4:13pm Dec 4, 2016 4:13pm
Quoting Lock
19:53+1GMT Yesterday preUS poor high at 26955 taken out: above we still have the old pit gap downside up to 27285. But It's Friday and we had a grinding market all day long, meaning weak hands ruling the environment. So I'm off for today. See you next week. Best L.
23:13+1GMT
All the pit session grinding action upside retraced almost completely by this new Sydney opening. This does not surprise me at all considering that Friday pit session left downside something like 8 anomalies and that all the move started with a poor low established by preUS at 26127.

Consider anyway that Fiday pit session high is a poor high: carry this info forward.
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  • #1,920
  • Dec 4, 2016 4:18pm Dec 4, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting ruma29
Lock, do you know what might be this market profile? it gives different profile then other indicators.... example: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post9294187

Sorry, I do not know the tool this trader is using nor the settings of it. Try to ask him which times he set for the sessions, the row high of any letter and the timeframe is using (m30, H1, ...) Best L.
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