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AUD/USD

  • #100,081
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:31am Dec 1, 2016 12:31am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} No one cares about your demo account.. You can literally take a trade and be negative thousands or dollars and just hold it until it goes your way. You live account shows $1000 of profit since July 2016
Thats makes it 20% profit

1st trade was placed in October
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,082
  • Dec 1, 2016 12:43am Dec 1, 2016 12:43am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : If sellers are indeed there, then this is the move I';m waiting for : {image}

Update : Looking for sell :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #100,083
  • Dec 1, 2016 2:31am Dec 1, 2016 2:31am
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Is that you or so else's video cheers
taken from here

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmv...qRvh0QGAf-86_Q

gives a good weekly analysis

twitter.com/gettoefl
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #100,084
  • Dec 1, 2016 3:15am Dec 1, 2016 3:15am
Buy 73935 tp 74118

I give it 2 hours to get there if not I'll close sl at 73905
  • #100,085
  • Dec 1, 2016 4:05pm Dec 1, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting Noors
Buy 73935 tp 74118 I give it 2 hours to get there if not I'll close sl at 73905
good scalping
  • #100,086
  • Dec 1, 2016 5:41pm Dec 1, 2016 5:41pm
Iron ore rebound.....ping pong ball


http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ir...casino-2016-12
  • #100,087
  • Dec 1, 2016 10:35pm Dec 1, 2016 10:35pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} good scalping
I hope he kept it longer than 2hrs, cos based on the time of his post, 2hrs later the price was at 7375.

Looks like a minor double bottom at 7370 btw. Given NFPs later, as has usually been the case, high risk of an upward reversal...profit taking from all those short trades. The USD has already started unwinding some of its gains.
  • #100,088
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:26am Dec 2, 2016 1:26am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Update : Looking for sell : {image}

At this trade I was stopped out. There was no room to cover our trade for a 100% risk mitigation. As long as the trend remain unchanged, the trades will be taken only to the short side.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #100,089
  • Dec 2, 2016 3:55am Dec 2, 2016 3:55am
so risk is off and aud is still up today...can't wait to see the huge reversal.....aud retail is up, because they are using more credit...following the same pattern of usa before the housing collapse
  • #100,090
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:03am Dec 2, 2016 6:03am
we all see diff things I guess

In a daily chart I still see a channel going up which I don't think it has been safely broken to the downside to go short...
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  • #100,091
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:08am Dec 2, 2016 6:08am
Quoting ell3
{quote} I hope he kept it longer than 2hrs, cos based on the time of his post, 2hrs later the price was at 7375. Looks like a minor double bottom at 7370 btw. Given NFPs later, as has usually been the case, high risk of an upward reversal...profit taking from all those short trades. The USD has already started unwinding some of its gains.
Yes I can see that too...bloody market moving suckers they never show clear signs at least to us short sighted noobies!
I know the sentiment from many here is clearly going down...
  • #100,092
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:18am Dec 2, 2016 6:18am
Quoting thewriter30
we all see diff things I guess In a daily chart I still see a channel going up which I don't think it has been safely broken to the downside to go short... {image}
Its a better idea to look at the chart further back. From your image the uptrend is broken as it has made a lower low than the previous low. On a bigger scale the day chart is neither a down or up trend. The down trend was broken in Feb this year and when on to make a higher high in march and a higher low in may and since stuck in a ranging trend. Until price either breaks .78500 or .71300 current trend is range bound.

4H chart is down
week is down
month is down
H1 downtrend broken.
daily ranging
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,093
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:30am Dec 2, 2016 6:30am
Hey Paul,

I will try to look for that...I still think that even though the channel was broken in daily, it went back as per my chart so it seemed to me like a false (at the moment) break.
When i zoom out a lot I can see the amazingly long downtrend leg and then like triangle pointing up (flag???)

cheers

ps it's late in aussie land
  • #100,094
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:32am Dec 2, 2016 6:32am
BTW
Can these sentiments from dailyFX be trusted? I know some of you guys look at sentiments to consider a contrarian approach to what most retailers do
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  • #100,095
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:43am Dec 2, 2016 6:43am
Quoting thewriter30
BTW Can these sentiments from dailyFX be trusted? I know some of you guys look at sentiments to consider a contrarian approach to what most retailers do {image}
Maybe keep an eye on it.

Where does price go when sentiment is long and where does price go when sentient is short?
Also look at Oanda client sentiment and IG market client sentiment. Also down load Ctrader platform if your broker has it. Ctrader has a sentiment tool inbuilt into the platform from all Ctrader users. If your broker dont have it open a demo with pepperstone.

You will be surprised the results you find
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,096
  • Dec 2, 2016 6:43am Dec 2, 2016 6:43am
it seems like to going to change direction to up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Let Market Tell You
  • #100,097
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:50am Dec 2, 2016 7:50am
Quoting thewriter30
BTW Can these sentiments from dailyFX be trusted? I know some of you guys look at sentiments to consider a contrarian approach to what most retailers do {image}
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Maybe keep an eye on it. Where does price go when sentiment is long and where does price go when sentient is short? Also look at Oanda client sentiment and IG market client sentiment. Also down load Ctrader platform if your broker has it. Ctrader has a sentiment tool inbuilt into the platform from all Ctrader users. If your broker dont have it open a demo with pepperstone. You will be surprised the results you find

on my broker's client sentiment view, it's the opposite...top clients = 74% short AUD. they separate out the "top clients" (those who've been in overall profit for 3 consecutive months) from all clients. this is interesting, because when the price reaches certain levels, you can suddenly see a sizable change in % short/long. trusting in the success of the "top clients", whatever they're basing their analysis on to take up positions, there's a higher chance of credibility believing in the direction they're in. of course then again, those numbers could just be manipulated by the broker as a market maker! but i think CMC markets has a pretty decent reputation. generally otherwise i personally find that the idea of "when everyone is short, price goes up" doesn't really hold much fact.
  • #100,098
  • Dec 2, 2016 8:00am Dec 2, 2016 8:00am
why on earth is this going up?
  • #100,099
  • Dec 2, 2016 8:03am Dec 2, 2016 8:03am
Quoting ell3
{quote} {quote} on my broker's client sentiment view, it's the opposite...top clients = 74% short AUD. they separate out the "top clients" (those who've been in overall profit for 3 consecutive months) from all clients. this is interesting, because when the price reaches certain levels, you can suddenly see a sizable change in % short/long. trusting in the success of the "top clients", whatever they're basing their analysis on to take up positions, there's a higher chance of credibility believing in the direction they're in. of course then again,...
what i found with the ctrader sentiment specially on the AUD when sentiment is long price is short and then once price bottoms you will see sentiment switch to short then price goes up.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #100,100
  • Dec 2, 2016 8:05am Dec 2, 2016 8:05am
hmm. NFPs didnt really move the market much. data this week has failed to move the USD any higher, suggesting market fatigue. the longer the USD remains stuck where it is, the higher the risk of a correction as more desks start trimming long bets. imo, the AUD/USD is all about yield differentials. so if the data hasn't spurred more USD buying >> the market is insufficiently convinced that the fed will get more hawkish (i.e. more rate hikes) >> no new catalyst to drive the A/U lower -- so as i mentioned earlier this week, i guess Fed speak will be the important one to look out for now.

in other words, what looks like a consolidation before further downside may turn into a reversal. in my humble opinion.
i will still nonetheless look to sell for now, but from above the 200h MA at 7450ish (catching a failed break), with a stop 10 pips above at 7460 (confirmation of a successful break). note that i trade on shorter time frames.

have a good weekend everyone!
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