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Multi Stoch - expanding upon 'Spud's Stochastic Thread Theory'

  • #81
  • Dec 1, 2016 1:34am Dec 1, 2016 1:34am
Quoting whateveridon
{quote} What do you try to refer from: trading this live ?.
I have tested this out on demo for around 6 months, with mixed success initially, but have shown gradual improvements in my ROI over time as I refined the strategy to where it is today. I feel that 3 weeks of consistent returns on a live account is enough to warrant its release.

I started out with a very small account, and am making daily withdrawals of ALL profits, so at the start of each new trading day I am left with JUST the initial deposit amount in the account. This keeps me accountable, as consistent results are the backbone of what I am trying to achieve.

I do feel the weight of responsibility when sharing any strategy on here that has the potential to cause loss to a user, so I am trying to leave no stone unturned. But at the same time I don't feel that 6 months of forward-testing is warranted for something that I am not trying to "sell" for a profit.

At the end of the day it is a free strategy. If you follow it to the letter, you should earn PIPs month-in and month-out. But, as always, test on DEMO until you are happy with the results.
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  • #82
  • Dec 1, 2016 1:42am Dec 1, 2016 1:42am
¡Thank you!.
  • #83
  • Dec 1, 2016 6:37pm Dec 1, 2016 6:37pm
Hello thread,

It has been brought to my attention by a subscriber that there is an error in one of the formulas for one of the set-up alerts. It is for the 1st alert, as follows:

1) When C1 ((SLOW K AV < D) AND C2 (SLOW K AV > D)) (remembering this was a BUY formula example - opposite for a SELL).
This initial alert identifies the first piece of evidence we need, where all Stochastic threads are grouped in an oversold zone on one candle, and then by the next candle close the SLOW K group has risen above the D signal line.

This above formula has not taken into account the fact that the values are grouped together in an extreme zone at the time there was a D signal line crossover.

So the formula should read: When C1 ((SLOW K AV < D) AND C2 ((SLOW K AV > D) < OSX)) (and of course we use an opposite formula for a SELL).

A change has been requested of the programmer to ensure this logic is updated in the indicator. My apologies to anyone who has read and been confused by this error but has not come forward to let me know.

Please note that I am open to receiving PM messages detailing any concerns you may have about aspects of the strategy if they seem to contain glaringly obvious errors, as in this example. Also, there are areas that have not yet been covered (or even researched) by me which are very important, i.e. the concept of divergence, which was George Lane's "bread and butter". Therefore I am open to enlisting the help of anyone who is able to assist me in deciding upon the logic for a formula that recognises divergence, as long as it makes sense within the overall strategy and doesn't confuse it.

To reiterate however, I am NOT open to accepting requests to ADD new indicators to the strategy.

In addition to the above, I will be adding in the option to Take Profit at ROUND NUMBERS in addition to using Pivot Points and the Daily Open, as these levels are another important consideration when examining price action.

Cheers and have yourself a day full of GREEN PIPs!
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  • #84
  • Dec 1, 2016 7:37pm Dec 1, 2016 7:37pm
ANOTHER MTF EXAMPLE - M15 entry with H1 confluent conditions.

G'day there, and welcome to another day of MTF analysis! Good to have you with us

Today I will be looking at a medium term time frame MTF example, that being the M15 as the entry signal, with the H1 showing confluence and offering us more confidence in the trade.

I have decided on GBPJPY this time for something a little different...I usually only trade EURUSD (*yawn*). The screen-shots have been placed side by side to see everything a little easier.

Firstly, take a look at the H1 on the right. There were no set-up alerts 1 or 2, we jumped straight to 3, indicated by the DARKORANGE vertical line. FYI the indicator will display whichever alert is the most recent in the series, so if alerts 1, 2 AND 3 all occur on the same candle, then only alert 3 will display, as in this screen-shot example.

Notice also that the H1 has formed a ROPE, well, close enough to a ROPE anyway. There is a really nice point detailing a possible strong reversal. We would not have known it was a point until the close of that candle, another reason to be patient and wait for candles to close before entering! So the alert came in at the close of the 13:00 hrs candle on the H1, which means we are now at 14:00 hrs and we start checking the lower TF for a possible entry.

Now head over to the M15 and notice how we received a similar alert 3 at the close of the 13:00 hrs candle (13:15). There is already an ENTRY alert showing at 13:15, so we enter without further delay. We are above the Pivot Point, so all is looking good.

Your choice of SL procedure, either from the options available in the indicator or your own personal fave. Draw-down was very minimal here, just a few pips plus spread, which is ideal on a larger TF.

Regarding TP levels, because we are on a larger TF than the previous example, you have the choice of playing it safe and getting out early at the Daily Open (around 25 pips), or stick with the strength of the H1 ROPE and riding that all the way to the next PP (close to 190 pips). You can easily change the indicator settings "Use Daily Open as TP?" to off if you prefer a longer-term trade.

NOTE: I am less inclined to wait until an opposite alert signal as my exit alert on these longer time frames. It seems like a whole lot of wasted time for very little return.

That will do it for another day. I will hopefully have an indicator update later today from my programmer, so will advise when I know more.

Have an awesome day / night ahead!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY MTF M15 with H1.PNG Size: 157 KB
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  • #85
  • Dec 1, 2016 7:51pm Dec 1, 2016 7:51pm
Quoting kirkleaforex
ANOTHER MTF EXAMPLE - M15 entry with H1 confluent conditions. G'day there, and welcome to another day of MTF analysis! Good to have you with us Today I will be looking at a medium term time frame MTF example, that being the M15 as the entry signal, with the H1 showing confluence and offering us more confidence in the trade. I have decided on GBPJPY this time for something a little different...I usually only trade EURUSD (*yawn*). The screen-shots have been placed side by side to see everything a little easier. Firstly, take a look at the...
KirkleaForex,

Thanks for the beautiful write ups. Just wanted to say, your thread is a temple of zen and serenity. You really have a calm and positive attitude as your posts are really soothing to the mind.

Have a nice day.
  • #86
  • Dec 1, 2016 8:59pm Dec 1, 2016 8:59pm
ANOTHER MTF SCALP EXAMPLE - EURUSD 1 minute entry with 5 minute showing confluence.

I know, I know! I said that was all for the day...but surely another example can't hurt, can it?

I was asleep when this move happened, but it is a great way of showing the importance of recognising divergence.

Actually, to be totally precise (and in keeping with the teachings of our good friend Mr G. Lane), divergence for a bullish set-up is referred to as "convergence"...the lines are "converging", or moving toward one another over time, instead of separating. So George identified Bullish "CONVERGENCE" and Bearish "DIVERGENCE" as part of his entry set-ups.

This example will show a great example of scalping Bullish convergence, which in turn proves how powerful Stochastics can be (on ALL time frames) at revealing changes in momentum, which in turn offer us insights into possible changes in price direction.

See the 5 minute chart (on the right). We have set-up alerts 1, 2 and 3 occurring between 17:00hrs and 17:15hrs, so essentially we have our 3 ducks in a row on the 5 minute chart by 17:20hrs.

What was happening over on the 1 minute? Well, quite a lot it seems! We are getting set-up alerts 1, 2 and 3 between 16:55hrs and 17:01hrs, and we receive an ENTRY alert at 17:03.

Do we take it?

If we were trading merely the 1 minute we might have entered with a BUY, but looking at a slightly bigger picture shows us some important information.

The 5 minute BBCL is sloping sharply downward...we have been experiencing some significant downward momentum, so why would we buy into this? It is a recipe for potential loss...

After waiting on the sidelines for a short while, by around 17:35 the 5 minute chart reveals bullish convergence after there was a rejected attempt at breaking down through the PP and Daily Open. And the idea that momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish is becoming clearer.

We receive another set-up alert 3 on the 1 minute at 17:28, and even after there is an obvious cross of K AV above the 50 line, the 1 minute BBCL is still sloping downward, so we don't get our ENTRY alert.

ENTRY alert finally comes at the close of the candle at 17:41, and so we enter at 17:42. Draw-down is minimal at around 3 pips plus spread and within 5 candles we are in profit. If we were targeting the PP above it would have earned us around 17 pips.

By the time it hit that PP there was a BUY alert on the 5 minute chart...so you could perhaps choose to stay in and ride the 5 minute entry signal for more PIPs.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT CONVERGENCE / DIVERGENCE

It is important to make note of the fact that the indicator in its initial release state will NOT have the ability to recognise convergence or divergence. It is something I plan to add in however, as these set-ups were a staple of George Lane's trading method. For the moment we just have to learn to recognise this ourselves manually.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MTF example M1 and M5.PNG Size: 170 KB
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  • #87
  • Dec 2, 2016 12:03am Dec 2, 2016 12:03am
Hi. I was interested in Spuds methods earlier. A question for you Kirkleaforex. I can't seem to figure out the D signal line. Please can u explain how to set it up? I allowed to show the 12,3,3 signal signal line show but doesn't look lie what u have on your chart.
  • #88
  • Dec 2, 2016 12:49am Dec 2, 2016 12:49am
Quoting Wahnone
Hi. I was interested in Spuds methods earlier. A question for you Kirkleaforex. I can't seem to figure out the D signal line. Please can u explain how to set it up? I allowed to show the 12,3,3 signal signal line show but doesn't look lie what u have on your chart.
Hey there. Until the indicator is released I am placing a normal Stochastic in the same indicator window with 12 as the D% setting and changing the K% colour to NONE. This should get you out of trouble for now. Let me know how you go.
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  • #89
  • Dec 2, 2016 1:20am Dec 2, 2016 1:20am
Quoting kirkleaforex
{quote} Hey there. Until the indicator is released I am placing a normal Stochastic in the same indicator window with 12 as the D% setting and changing the K% colour to NONE. This should get you out of trouble for now. Let me know how you go.
Thanks. The %D setting for this stochastic is 12. What about the values for %K and Slowing?
  • #90
  • Dec 2, 2016 2:38am Dec 2, 2016 2:38am
Quoting Wahnone
{quote} Thanks. The %D setting for this stochastic is 12. What about the values for %K and Slowing?
Hi again, sorry I was out doing my shopping and my phone was about to die so I rushed the answer.

To be honest this is a difficult question to answer fully at this stage. As D% is a derivative of K%, the D% is always going to be different for the new indicator's "K AV" value as it would be for a single "static" Stochastic K% value. I could suggest a number and it produce a great signal one minute, and an awful signal the next.

As an option, half-way between 24 and 6 is around 15, and I do remember Spud writing in his .pdf notes about how "special" he thought the 14 period was. So perhaps 14 could be used for a test for now until you get a handle on everything...it is something anyway! Slowing value is still 3.

You could also place several Stochs overlaid (all with the K% value colours switched to NONE) but with differently coloured D% values. Perhaps try out a 5, an 8, a 12, and then back-test and see what results you might have achieved with different settings. At the moment this is the best I can offer until I can offer you the indicator.

Regarding that, I still have not heard any update from my programmer, but will post here asap once I know something.
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  • #91
  • Edited 3:52am Dec 2, 2016 3:09am | Edited 3:52am
Hi thread, while we wait for the new indicator, I have something which some of you may find has some value.

My programmer coded up an indicator that offers some of the information that we need, i.e. it offers a single line for K AV, and an additional single line for D AV.

Now I am not interested in D AV, only a "static" D%, but at the very least it could offer you a way of testing out different settings and deciding on what works best for you.

Perhaps overlay a standard Stochastic with the K% value colour changed to NONE, and then in the attached MTF Stoch indicator's settings, change the D% value to NONE.

See attached screen-shots detailing how to set these up. Please note that the D% value suggestion is purely subjective at this stage until the new indicator is released.

Lastly, I have done a comparative test of the D% line between a standard Stochastic and the attached MTF Stochastic, and the result is a close match, so this might be a great option for you for the time being. See attached screen-shot detailing the result of having BOTH lines showing...the standard Stochastic D% line is solid WHITE, and the MTF Stochastic D% line is solid MAGENTA. The standard Stoch settings are 14/8/3, Exponential, Low/High, while the MTF Stoch settings are "K AV"/8/3, Exponential, Low/High.

Hope all of this works guys - let me know via PM if you are having trouble and I will assist where I can.

EDIT: changed pic to show correct settings for colour settings for MTF Stoch indicator - apologies...!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MTF Stoch Indicator colour setting suggestions 2.PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Comparison of Standard Stoch D% line with MTF Stoch.PNG Size: 134 KB
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 KH_MTF_Stochastic_Average.mq4   15 KB | 1,426 downloads
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  • #92
  • Edited 3:58am Dec 2, 2016 3:37am | Edited 3:58am
OK, so I am going out on a limb here and posting what I see as a potential trade opportunity for the coming London / NY session on the EURUSD.

DISCLAIMER: This is NOT a signal service - I am not recommending a trade and by taking one based on the following information you do so at your own RISK. What I offer here is simply a way of reading MTF information from several charts that offer me an inkling into what is more likely to happen. So...

Chart 1 - D1 screen-shot. Price has already challenged the DR2 line (Daily Resistance Pivot Point number 2) and is now back around the Daily Open.

Chart 2 - H4 screen-shot. H4 candle is about to close in 30 minutes or so (well, with Pepperstone it is, I don't know about with your broker...they can differ! *sigh*). Price has been rejected for the past 4 hours after testing the DR1 and is now testing a break down through the WR1. We need to see what happens by the close of this current candle for more definitive info.

What I really am interested in is the Stoch info on both the D1 and the H4.

On the D1 the short-term Stoch info (BLUE lines) has risen fairly strongly but the longer-term Stoch info (RED lines) are pretty well staying put, suggesting we are still very much Bearish for the longer term.

On the H4 There is a nice point / bend that has formed in the overbought zone and a ROPE is close to forming. This could mean anything at this stage, but if we get a nice bearish H4 candle at the close, I am feeling very SHORT on the EURUSD for the coming session.

EDIT: The OTHER interesting aspect of this actually contradicts all of the above. Price is currently challenging previous short-term resistance, so it could just as easily bounce and head up, depending on what happens with the USD this session. So beware...

EDIT 2: If price does head south for the next trading session, now is a great time to witness exactly what happens on the short-term time frames when price is already in oversold territory. Don't be sucked in to thinking that oversold conditions mean you should only look for BUY opportunities...

Trade well, people!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 1 - D1 chart EURUSD.PNG Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screeshot 2 - H4 chart EURUSD.PNG Size: 111 KB
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  • #93
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:38am Dec 2, 2016 4:38am
Quoting kirkleaforex
Hi thread, while we wait for the new indicator, I have something which some of you may find has some value. My programmer coded up an indicator that offers some of the information that we need, i.e. it offers a single line for K AV, and an additional single line for D AV. Now I am not interested in D AV, only a "static" D%, but at the very least it could offer you a way of testing out different settings and deciding on what works best for you. Perhaps overlay a standard Stochastic with the K% value colour changed to NONE, and then in the attached...
Thank you so much kirkleaforex......i found indicator stochastic from search....and try to edit with your setting.....thank you so much......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SUPER1.png Size: 39 KB
The Average Discount Everything
  • #94
  • Dec 2, 2016 4:47am Dec 2, 2016 4:47am
G'day again...

For anyone having difficulty getting this to look right on their screens (I have had a few PM's) please try out the attached template file.

It utilises the original SPUD template, available from his thread, with the additional indicators that I use. As long as you have already downloaded the indicators that I have posted in this thread for the strategy, your screen should look identical to the screenshot below.

Hope this helps you out while we continue to patiently wait for the indicator...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: KH SPUD template.PNG Size: 106 KB
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl KH SPUD MTF Stoch.tpl   17 KB | 1,152 downloads
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  • #95
  • Dec 2, 2016 5:20am Dec 2, 2016 5:20am
Quoting kirkleaforex
G'day again... For anyone having difficulty getting this to look right on their screens (I have had a few PM's) please try out the attached template file. It utilises the original SPUD template, available from his thread, with the additional indicators that I use. As long as you have already downloaded the indicators that I have posted in this thread for the strategy, your screen should look identical to the screenshot below. Hope this helps you out while we continue to patiently wait for the indicator... {file} {image} {image}

Thanks Man!
  • #96
  • Edited 10:35am Dec 2, 2016 5:46am | Edited 10:35am
I have just had a PM from a guy who was having problems with computer / CPU overload with having so many Stochastics loaded onto his chart - MT4 was freezing etc.

He has offered to post another version of the SPUD indicator which he finds helps in this regard, which I have agreed to as it will hopefully help out others having the same problem.

Please send me a PM at anytime if you are having any problems getting this set up correctly. Here to help

EDIT: Please download from following post #97. Cheers.
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  • #97
  • Dec 2, 2016 7:51am Dec 2, 2016 7:51am
Quoting kirkleaforex
I have just had a PM from a guy who was having problems with computer / CPU overload with having so many Stochastics loaded onto his chart - MT4 was freezing etc. He has offered to post another version of the SPUD indicator which he finds helps in this regard, which I have agreed to as it will hopefully help out others having the same problem. Please send me a PM at anytime if you are having any problems getting this set up correctly. Here to help
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sto.png Size: 150 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #MTF Stochastic Thread HTFS.mq4   5 KB | 1,013 downloads
File Type: mq4 #MTF Stochastic Thread LTFS.mq4   5 KB | 1,068 downloads
  • #98
  • Dec 2, 2016 8:47am Dec 2, 2016 8:47am
Hi Kirk,
Trying to ensure I have my charts set up "exactly" like yours - Looking at the pic of your indicator list, I can't seem to find the "Bollinger Band MA option" indicator.
From your chart, it doesn't look different than a normal BB, but I didn't want to assume anything, so I'm asking. Also, is there anything different about the "###AutoPivot2" (emphasis on "2") than the normal AutoPivot?
REALLY looking forward to this getting wrapped up. Being transparent here, feeling a little frustrated in that it feels like we're piecing this thing together...understanding it is a work in progress, but....
Nonetheless, enjoying the thread and everyone's friendly, supportive interaction with it.
  • #99
  • Dec 2, 2016 9:19am Dec 2, 2016 9:19am
Quoting lctrader11
Hi Kirk, Trying to ensure I have my charts set up "exactly" like yours - Looking at the pic of your indicator list, I can't seem to find the "Bollinger Band MA option" indicator. From your chart, it doesn't look different than a normal BB, but I didn't want to assume anything, so I'm asking. Also, is there anything different about the "###AutoPivot2" (emphasis on "2") than the normal AutoPivot? REALLY looking forward to this getting wrapped up. Being transparent here, feeling a little frustrated in that it feels like we're piecing this thing together...understanding...
Believe me, nobody is more frustrated than I am at the unfortunate turn of events that occurred to my programmer. I wouldn't wish that on anyone, but we are where we are, so I do appreciate everybody's patience.

I did say from the start that I wanted to have the entire strategy mapped out piece by piece prior to releasing the indicator, as I know what it is like when a shiny new object comes along...people like to swoop on it and the attention and focus on the strategy can become lost. I am just hoping people can understand the bigger picture before getting carried away and placing faith in an indicator they don't fully understand.

Regarding autopivot and the BB indi, I am sure I already posted them on here, but in case I haven't, please download them from below.

Thanks for sticking around and being patient with everything. Peace
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ###Auto Pivot2.ex4   24 KB | 830 downloads
File Type: ex4 Bollinger Band multiple MA option.ex4   17 KB | 828 downloads
File Type: mq4 Bollinger Band multiple MA option.mq4   6 KB | 947 downloads
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  • #100
  • Dec 2, 2016 11:06am Dec 2, 2016 11:06am
Quoting gazpacho
{quote} {file} {file} {image}
Applying the 2 modified versions of the H/L SPUD indicators from a guy experiencing CPU overload, what is the value of the one lone stochastic indicator left by itself?
Along those same lines, how many charts do you anticipate we'll be able to apply your new indicator to? By employing alerts, we will have the "luxury" of not having to stare at the charts all the time, but not wanting to miss any potential trade opportunities, that would mean applying the future indicator/template to multiple charts; that would be a lot of data being processed, especially at lower TFs. From another thread, I had applied a series of confluent indicators, and MT4 maxed out at 8 charts. I had never experienced that before, so now I'm cautious and know that it IS a reality that it can happen.

BTW, I exposed the %D AVG line that your programmer redid. I didn't care for it; seemed to be "late to the party" on several moves and just right on others. I'm sure it's behavior could be mapped out, but I would anticipate that the # of scenarios to keep track of where it would be accurate enough to use for confluence would not be effective/beneficial.
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