Decided to exit at the op of he channel.
- #1,043
- Nov 30, 2016 12:50pm Nov 30, 2016 12:50pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
Worth watching on daily chart.
Any advice to avoid false signals like this? Of course is impossible to get 100% trades profit... but something to help would be good On this screenshot you can see its break the trendline where i placed the black retangle {image}
Hope it helps a bit, and of course the others can correct me if im wrong
Greetz,
TheJube.
- #1,045
- Nov 30, 2016 2:48pm Nov 30, 2016 2:48pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
{quote} If you put the Ichimoku on your chart, you will see that the bar didn't close below both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, so you entered too fast, we must wait for price breaking the trendline + closing below the Tenkan and Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku. Also, you can put a 100-period SMA on your chart and see that price is above, indicating an uptrend
- #1,046
- Nov 30, 2016 5:31pm Nov 30, 2016 5:31pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
{quote} If you put the Ichimoku on your chart, you will see that the bar didn't close below both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, so you entered too fast, we must wait for price breaking the trendline + closing below the Tenkan and Kijun-sen of the Ichimoku. Also, you can put a 100-period SMA on your chart and see that price is above, indicating an uptrend
. I don't want to talk in behalf of the author of this thread, but here is what I do before entering a trade:- Check if there is a hidden divergence pattern. This was the case in your GBPAUD 4 HR chart, alhough I prefer bigger moves (retracements) from the price and indicators.
- Check if price reached a major Fib level. This was the case in the middle chart where it retraced from 76.4. It is ok for minor Fib level also.
- Check if the HD pattern is in a strong trend. In the 4HR chart, it looks like it, but if you look at the next higher timeframe (daily), you can see that price is going up. It doesn't mean that you could not get a few pips, but the odds are not in your favour. As Dany suggested to me, you can check the major trend by looking at Kijun-sen and Tanken-sen of the higher timeframe. At the time of decision, price was below Tanken but above Kijun in the daily chart, which is not good. I personally use Donchian middle lines to simulate Kijun and Tenkan of higher TF (dotted pinkish lines). Also it is best if you are in the right side of the cloud which is not the case in the 4HR and daily charts.
- Probably one of the most important signal is the cross of price trendline. In our case, we can hardly define any trendline at all. I draw one (thin black line), but it is not based on strong pivots.
- I use other confirmation signals: the cross of TDI in the trading chart and also the cross of 0 level from my MACD in the next smaller TF. The latter occured (vertical line of the 1HR TF), but not the cross of TDI.
- Check the news before entering. I got stopped out many times because of a stupid announcement I should have waited for. In our case, I don't think there was any major news for either currencies.
That's all I can think of for now.
- #1,051
- Nov 30, 2016 9:47pm Nov 30, 2016 9:47pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
Here is an example of a good environment for hidden divergence trading. Clear strong trend. Actually, it should be a good environment for any strategy 
.
. Here is an example of a good environment for hidden divergence trading. Clear strong trend. Actually, it should be a good environment for any strategy
First you wait for break trendline, then after you wait for make some hidden divergence for enter on the trade.
After the hidden divergence, you can check its bounced on 38.2 fibonacci, it means it can go until 1.618 on fib extension which get us around 1:4 to 1:5 risk/reward
- #1,054
- Nov 30, 2016 11:00pm Nov 30, 2016 11:00pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
Going to sleep. Wil see how it did in the morning.
- #1,057
- Dec 1, 2016 7:14am Dec 1, 2016 7:14am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
Next few candles will be determinant.
- #1,058
- Dec 1, 2016 7:24am Dec 1, 2016 7:24am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
Here's a situation where timeframes are in conflict. It happens often. My feeling is that price will go down because of that wicky candle on the daily chart. Also because price is bouncing at the down kumo on the weekly chart. But price will tell.
- #1,059
- Dec 1, 2016 7:29am Dec 1, 2016 7:29am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
This is not an ideal situation despite the clear HD pattern on the 1HR chart because of the ranging trend on the 4HR. Also price is above the 4HR Tenkan and Kijun.
- #1,060
- Dec 1, 2016 9:16am Dec 1, 2016 9:16am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,987 Posts
Finally got stopped out. Should have paid more attention to the doji on the 4HR chart.
