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Bored Fibonacci trade RR: 1:1.2

  • #41
  • Edited 8:07am Oct 17, 2016 7:54am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting TudorIoan
London's, it's also ranked like this(?): 1. AUDUSD (still the first?) 2. GER30 (what TF's better for DAX ?) 3. GBPUSD 4. USDJPY ...now I'm thinking to give a try to DAX (next to AUD) if you're saying is working smoothly on London
yes, the dax behaves really like clockwork .. just scroll back a few days and check it out ..
however do NOT trade the first 2 hour of Frankfurt (first hour London) !!
the volatility picks up dramatically, the setups usually still valid .. but if the Dax goes against you 100 pips in 1 minute .. that means you 300$ in the hole.

kind of a large risc for a 15-30$ trade

usually i trade the dax Gap .. (on another account) right if the bell sounds in Frankfurt, and then let it go for 2 hours ..
as the London opening will give it another punch .. .. after that .. its pretty much "normal" till the market closes ..
- avoid News of course (they are pretty much predictable, but thereis almost always a large swing in the oposite direction).

timeframwise ... after the big wave is over .. go in with M5 .. then zoom out to 15-30 till german afternoon) .. then back to M5

actually even the big swings are easy to capture .. but its going pretty fast, sometimes i draw the extension on the same candle ..
like watch the price pulls back ... draw extension .. and place pending order already .. and then just keep moving it with the price ..

many times i had +2% Trades in just 1 M5 candle
but that requires really serious attention.

also, also iam much better Shorting than Buying .. (also no clue why that is) as the setups work in both directions.
if i have 10 long and 10 short setups .. i usually take 8 of the short setups but only maybe 3 or so of the long setups.
usually the outcome for long and short is the same ... but i being alot more confident with going short.
it's maybe a psycological thing ... because i draw the extention anyway .. even if i not take the trade .. thats is good for training ..
especially the realtime drawing needs training ... if raw the extention .. and mark where you would have placed the order .. helps alot.

instead of the trade i just put a box there where the order would have been filled .. so i can see if the trade would be a winner or looser ..
see picture ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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helps alot.. especially if you draw the extention in unfinished candles, as afterwards there is no way to re-evaluate your entry reasons
  • #42
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:34am Nov 2, 2016 6:34am
Folowed your recommendations and I'm a DAX addict now.
DAX works smoother than E/U for that expansion stuff.
I'm currently doing some expreimental changes.
I'll let you know if I'll come up with some brilliant results
Member
  • #43
  • Nov 13, 2016 8:55am Nov 13, 2016 8:55am
Quoting TudorIoan
Folowed your recommendations and I'm a DAX addict now. DAX works smoother than E/U for that expansion stuff. I'm currently doing some expreimental changes. I'll let you know if I'll come up with some brilliant results
dax is awesome . i don't trade forex at all after the Frankfurt bell.

simply because volatility is a killer for this strategy as i trade large with tight SL ..
but the dax does rock it HARD !!

so fo me its now pretty much like this (order by prority):
Asia:
- USDJPY
- AUDUSD

Europe:
- DAX
- DAX
- DAX
- DAX
- AUDUSD

US:
- DAX
- Russel2000

i dropped USDCAD completly after making sme analysis .. most loosing trades from this pair ..


the dax is kind of expensive .. (i have no micro lot on Pepperstone) ..
but the outcomes are great anyway just have to zoom in more to meet my risk parameters
so i usually very quick in hedging instead of using stoploss ...
strategy does however not change because of that, my winning rate in the dax is by about 65% now.
  • #44
  • Nov 23, 2016 2:14am Nov 23, 2016 2:14am
LookS GREAT will be paying attention.. and reading in detail.. thks
  • #45
  • Nov 23, 2016 7:14pm Nov 23, 2016 7:14pm
USDJY.. 5 min got this for 14 clear..ABC..2 dtops.. will watch to see if it goes again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46
  • Edited 12:21pm Nov 29, 2016 6:42am | Edited 12:21pm
Hi
I'm runnin' tests on some new expansion numbers.
entry: 38; TP: 123 (~61.8x2); SL: -47 (RR 1:1)
Why? Because saved many of following situations (see EUR/USD M5 chart)

And I think that on the same entry level (38) we got a reasonable close TP (123) ...but a much lose SL(-47)!

What do you think?
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Member
  • #47
  • Nov 29, 2016 10:20pm Nov 29, 2016 10:20pm
Quoting danc
USDJY.. 5 min got this for 14 clear..ABC..2 dtops.. will watch to see if it goes again {image}
yeah thats pretty much it ..
next drop to 38% would be my entry as we have 2 lower high then.

i do pretty much ignore anything else besides the priceaction eitself .. however i have always 2 charts open so i can see a bit a biggher picture.

currently experiementing with a Ichimoku background to point out some weak places more easy. (just to cut down the analysis part)
ill post a chart later about this.
  • #48
  • Nov 29, 2016 11:11pm Nov 29, 2016 11:11pm
Quoting TudorIoan
Hi I'm runnin' tests on some new expansion numbers. entry: 38; TP: 123 (~61.8x2); SL: -47 (RR 1:1) Why? Because saved many of following situations (see EUR/USD M5 chart) And I think that on the same entry level (38) we got a reasonable close TP (123) ...but a much lose SL(-47)! What do you think? {image}
looks like a good plan .. but based on your chart .. i would have rearranged the extention already as there are 2 beautiful higher highs and the 2nd lower low would give me the point to pin the low ..

i would have sure taken this trade .. entry arround 1.0658 with TP 1.0664 for 6 clean pips
i do not count pips .. so for me its more like +2% of my account balance in 10 minutes or so .. (can't get any better than that)
  • #49
  • Nov 29, 2016 11:15pm Nov 29, 2016 11:15pm
Quoting nullx8
(can't get any better than that)
well, never say never .. just 10 minutes ago this happens on USDJPY:
+40 Bucks extra because of positive slippage
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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P.S. i not use the ichimoku to make decitions .. its more a background thing to see where price is in the -52 picture .. so to say
prevents me from entering at stupid places .. the strategy is unchanged because of that .. just some well finetuning
  • #50
  • Nov 30, 2016 1:43am Nov 30, 2016 1:43am
Quoting nullx8
{quote} looks like a good plan .. but based on your chart .. i would have rearranged the extention already as there are 2 beautiful higher highs and the 2nd lower low would give me the point to pin the low .. i would have sure taken this trade .. entry arround 1.0658 with TP 1.0664 for 6 clean pips i do not count pips .. so for me its more like +2% of my account balance in 10 minutes or so .. (can't get any better than that)
Thnx for your answer.
I'm just testing that wicked levels
See, I'm trying all kind of stuff because I suck at picking entries
...and my results are not so good as yours, but I think I'd better not try to compesate that altering your levels no more
Member
  • #51
  • Nov 30, 2016 3:23am Nov 30, 2016 3:23am
Quoting TudorIoan
because I suck at picking entries
i suck in exits !!

seriously i blow all my winnings away so many times because i get emotional, giving myself reasons not to exit ... thats the killer !

usually i move the stoploss and if a position goes against me .. i get stoped out by way less than 50% of the original risk .. so even with 1:1 ratio .. 1 winner makes 3 loosers easy break even ... but well there is me being extra stupid in the way of accomplishing that on a consitent bases
  • #52
  • Edited 3:56am Nov 30, 2016 3:33am | Edited 3:56am
here is a Super-Cherry-picked Example for "Re-Evaluating" this was just 3 minutes ago on GBPJPY
the trades are real .. but the case is really School-book alike .. not happen often as clean as this. but i do re-evaluate trades on larger timeframes quite often.
but normally a 5 minute trade turns then to be a 3 hour trade .. not like the example below

i trade on the M7 chart .. i made the extension and placed a pending Buy on 38% with stoploss of 12 pip or so so the lot size is big because very little way to the stop.

however soon after i did see on the M20 chart (on the left) that there is also a nice pullback visible following a higher high and a higher low.
so i placed another order on the same pair but with a larger stoploss (24pip) that's why the lot size is smaller.

the 83% of the M20 is of course much higher than the one on the M7 .. so i let the M7 trade run as the M20 Chart did confirm it.
result: risked 360$ to get 1200 and all that in 9 Minutes. (360 because the smaller position did "hedge" the later entry .. i would have exited both if total p/l went negative ... need to have a VERY SHORT LEASH (Mouse always above the "close all button") if trade 2 positions on the same pair, as this simply double's the risk.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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P.S. on M7 you not see a red candle .. but it was there ! there is no need to wait for candles to close .. if you see a pullback on the live priceaction, thats good enough.
as time does not really matter while doing this so do not the open and close of the candles.

if you look close, the candle i used to pin the upper extension does have a large wig on top the price did pull back there. but went back up again .. that's why the candle itself is green as closing price was higher than opening price.
still its a large pullback. and that is what we need to get this done. (on a smaller timeframe the candle would have been red)

from my experience, waiting for candles to close does make it much less accurate as the prices do not watch the time .. sometime i draw the extension over serval candles .. where the one for the final decision is in the opposite color as in the same time the candle has been build, the pullback was finish already.
  • #53
  • Nov 30, 2016 5:42am Nov 30, 2016 5:42am
Quoting nullx8
here is a Super-Cherry-picked Example for "Re-Evaluating" this was just 3 minutes ago on GBPJPY the trades are real .. but the case is really School-book alike .. not happen often as clean as this. but i do re-evaluate trades on larger timeframes quite often. but normally a 5 minute trade turns then to be a 3 hour trade .. not like the example below i trade on the M7 chart .. i made the extension and placed a pending Buy on 38% with stoploss of 12 pip or so so the lot size is big because very little way to the stop. however soon after i did...
Gee, complicated stuff there
But I have to try this again in order to improve my trading entries ...and exits
Ok, wish you to be extra smart and give yourself reasons not to exit until the best moment!
Member
  • #54
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:41am Nov 30, 2016 6:41am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Gee, complicated stuff there
nah not complicated at all .. you really should have 2 timeframes open ...
it helps alot ..

if you have oinly one chart . you have to draw support and resistance lines .. and then after 1 hour nobody knows which line was for what ..
so i dont draw S/R at all .. i have a smaller window with a MUCH larger timeframe open .. so i can actually see them live ..
and well if there is a setup on the larger timeferame .. then the better

as you know a Up or down "Trend" on a smaller timeframe is mostly just a pullback or a reversal on a larger timeframe ..
so its always good to know how far you can actually go ... especially if you have a 5 lot order with a 5 pip stoploss
if there is resistance nearby .. the chance the stop gets hit is much higher than on a empty space .. (one of the reasons i use ichimoku)
but as i said before, it has no real basis on the strategy itself ... its always 38 in 83 out

oh btw .. let me quickly make a screenshoot of GBPJPY
Attached Image

20min after: stoploss hit! 83% is magic !

see this image:
the price went there before (Resistance)
easy to see with 2 timeframes
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  • #55
  • Nov 30, 2016 6:51am Nov 30, 2016 6:51am
Quoting nullx8
{quote} nah not complicated at all .. you really should have 2 timeframes open ... it helps alot .. if you have oinly one chart . you have to draw support and resistance lines .. and then after 1 hour nobody knows which line was for what .. so i dont draw S/R at all .. i have a smaller window with a MUCH larger timeframe open .. so i can actually see them live .. and well if there is a setup on the larger timeferame .. then the better as you know a Up or down "Trend" on a smaller timeframe is mostly just a pullback or a reversal on a larger...
2 TFs. Nice tips. Thnx. I'll put them to work. 83% stays magic
Member
  • #56
  • Nov 30, 2016 7:38am Nov 30, 2016 7:38am
Quoting TudorIoan
83% stays magic
okay thjis is a bad 83% example .. the original fib level 89 would have been reached too and "almost" 121 .. but well as you can see the price did retrace really far before going to 121% (because of the resistance)

it would sure get there (well if you look GBPJPY now you see its over 200% now
... but i had 4,1 Lots (2,7 + 1,4) open Long .. so a 52pip pullback would have generated a 4000$ equity drawdown ..
not the kind of money i would want to risk. so take less and get it over with, use the money for another trade instead
  • #57
  • Nov 30, 2016 8:00am Nov 30, 2016 8:00am
Quoting nullx8
{quote} okay thjis is a bad 83% example .. the original fib level 89 would have been reached too and "almost" 121 .. but well as you can see the price did retrace really far before going to 121% (because of the resistance) it would sure get there (well if you look GBPJPY now you see its over 200% now ... but i had 4,1 Lots (2,7 + 1,4) open Long .. so a 52pip pullback would have generated a 4000$ equity drawdown .. not the kind of money i would want to risk. so take less and get it over with, use the money for another trade instead
Yeap, you're right M, 121 it's too far and the resistance (100) obviously get in the way too often.
Member
  • #58
  • Dec 8, 2016 5:18pm Dec 8, 2016 5:18pm
Hi,

interesting approach well defined and indeed working, if you can spot an impulse move! Thanks for sharing

Will make myself an EA helper for that - supplied with a starting bar (vertical line) it will draw the FE and place/move the orders.

Got one question: I see you're using cTrader (i'm still with MT4), but nevertheless, we both use bid charts. So if using the -5/38/83 extension with longs, entry will be triggered before the price even touches the 38 entry level, and with shorts, entry will be filled exactly at 38 but target will need to extend the 83 and shorts are also stopped out before even touching the -5 level - all because of spread.

Wouldn't it be correct to place the buy stop at 38+spread, and for shorts, set the target to 83-spread and the stop loss to -5+spread?
I only ask because with such tiny TP/SL ranges spread plays a big role, and longs trigger earlier than shorts if FE is based on bid charts in both directions.
MarginTrader All Time Return: na
  • #59
  • Dec 8, 2016 10:39pm Dec 8, 2016 10:39pm
Can someone help me. I am trying to just put the fib numbers in but when i enter they don't give me anything but 0.0. Am I entering the numbers wrong?

Fibonacci extension tool with the values: 0, -5, 38, 83
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  • #60
  • Edited 4:28am Dec 9, 2016 4:10am | Edited 4:28am
Quoting TrueStoryfx
Can someone help me. I am trying to just put the fib numbers in but when i enter they don't give me anything but 0.0. Am I entering the numbers wrong? Fibonacci extension tool with the values: 0, -5, 38, 83 {image}

  1. use fibo expansion, not fibo retracement
  2. in the Level column, enter -0.05, 0.38, 0.83.. you may also add the 0 (see point 4)
  3. description can be anything
  4. the 0 is never used in orders, in MT4 it's the 3rd dot in expansion so I prefer to not draw the line to avoid clutter


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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