USD/RUB

I agree with you that Trump should be bad for dollar although he says lets make america great again because govt spending will increase and will shoot the USD. so yes good times ahead for USD short trades.

I need to clarify one point that maybe was not clear. As Dr.Phoenix said we could certainly see 67, precisely 67.15-67.21 but this would be for me that upper range of expectations. In fact just above the current level at 66.38 we have the 200 DMA which should be a very strong resistance and I will short another 1/5 of the position at this level. Hopefully it will spike at this level so we can short and then drop.

As per above suggestion I shorted 1/5 more at the 200 DMA which is 66.30 today.

It's been sometime since I last posted something here. The position is still intact, suffering a bit but making good money overnight. For whoever is not in or has still some leveraging power another good point to short in light of the OPEC meetings tomorrow is 65.60. If we manage to see this level in this "false" upmove I will also increase my position by 1/5. I believe the OPEC meeting will ultimately be beneficial for oil so this is a level to consider in case you agree with me.

As I write Oil has moved around 8% but USD/RUB has only lost about 1.5 rubles. We need to remember here that both markets are heavily manipulated and loads of factors can affect them. For example, today the Russian CB may be front-running the situation by selling rubles to maintain stability in the market in case of sharp appreciation of the ruble on the last day of November. The fair value by some standards of USD/RUB stands below 61 at this moment but this doesnt mean that we may see 61 any time soon. The situation with OPEC is purposely unclear and I am considering closing the entire position benefiting from today's move and reopen it tomorrow when this meeting is over. The rationale is that since the market has moved my way so nicely I prefer to trade the rumor and forget the news.

I decided to close the position this morning at the opening taking 63.51 for a very nice profit. We are flat and looking for opportunities that should come as oil euphoria fades and USD/RUB has a gap to 64 that needs to close.

How are you guys? I briefly looked at the schedule, it would be good to jump to 65,30 - 65,5 before going down to 60 - 56 . I still think that the ruble will be strengthened within six months or a year. we will see in the near future 60 and 56. As I said earlier that rumors can affect, literally, some time ago some analyst said that we will see the dollar for 120, I told the story that if there is a rumor that the dollar will rise - rather, it is for sale and Vice versa. I have not heard news from the Central Bank about this, maybe I just haven't watched...

Russia has severe budget problems, they need week ruble now. Their Central Bank will continue to maintain current rate unless I think Oil reaches $60-65 per barrel, so maybe its only carry trading available on USDRUB for now.

Anyone care to post some chart prediction?

Looks like it is heading to 60 soon.

Is this catching up? @manosk. What is fair market value now?

60 seems to be a good first target. I am currently not in the trade. Fair value according to last year's budget should be at 55. I am not in the trade because I am not sure if this euphoria in oil will last..

It seldom last . A lot of rigs in US go to production if prices for oil stay above 55 - 60 for a longer period.

I am still in but have partly hedges against shorts oil so profit is the swap + some.

I post a map here with channel also ( wide one on weekly ) . We are close to flip level from 2015 .

TRex as secretary of state, may help...

@earl, thanks for the chart.

sliced through 60, going for 59 now.

Finally my profit is matching my accumulated rollover...

USD/RUB, Moscow interbank bourse.
Long term view.

Long lasting ruble depreciating, clearly visible five waves impulse since the middle of 2011.
Impulse is very huge and long in time. After every move should be a break, every impulse needs a correction. So large correction has already started, we can point correction target directly - it is the nearest fractal down, the end of wave 4. Note, how precisely wave 4 divides all five waves impulse into the golden ratio, the lowest part is 0.382 and the highest part is 0.618 of the whole wave length. This level will attract future price moves.
Let us look at the first move down.

First move down is an impulse, consists of five waves. This implies directly, that the whole move down will be A-B-C zigzag, we see its first part - wave A. What is else ? Triangle !
Wave 4 of wave A is a triangle with parallel lines. Very good. Wave 4 is a correction, triangular corrections always preceed the final price move, so thrust out of wave 4 is a final one. Else ?
Triangles have a magical property to attract future price moves. After reverse price tries to reach the end of triangle and, usually, does it very sharply and quickly. Current wave A down is ending now, we wait for correction a-b-c up. Already first wave "a" of this correction will try to reach the end of triangular wave 4, it is about 67 rub per usd. This is target level for a first move up.
Has wave A down already ended ? Let us look at its final wave 5 below.

Wave 1 - initial triangle, wave 3 is the strongest wave with clearly visible subwaves, also we see the ending thrust down. Yes wave 5 is already over or there will be the last short drop. reverse is near. Time to BUY USD against RUB, SELL your BUY near 67 rub per usd.
// -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today is 10 january 2017 near 09-20 GMT, we continue ruble tracking.
As we have already noted in the previous posts, USD/RUB was ending its first move down, and we have said, that either move is already over, or the last short drop required. Today at the time of this article USD/RUB has dropped once again and very quickly rebound up, so we treat the final wave 5 down as complete.

We have already added our trading decision to BUY US dollar against ruble, decision was a bit premature, but we don't take the risk to lose opportunity and we didn't count much on the last drop, as these drops are volatiles as a rule and are hard to catch. You may see trading decision details at our page in "Decisions" area or at the "Products"->"Russian ruble".
We continue to track US dollar against Russian ruble here and keep our trading decision to BUY USD against RUB until the first target - end of previous wave 4 - about 67 rub per 1 usd.
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today is 12 january 2017. We see another USD/RUB drop, but price has not dropped below the previous bottom. We still think, USD/RUB is reversing and it will continue its rise. Forecast is the same. We have open BUY position, bought usd against rub.

As long as USD/RUB is above the end of wave A(dark red label) we continue to hold position with the same forecast for future ruble move.

Neutral at the moment.

Today is 13 january 2017, we keep our position BUY usd against rub open.

As long as price holds above probable bottom of wave A(dark red label), we stick to our forecast - we are looking at USD/RUB reverse and rise.
Probable waves count is given on the chart above.
By the way, this figure in any traditional brain-break analysis is called "Head and shoulders" and signals about reverse.
USD is reversing against the major currencies and commodities. We shall search for the most clear and obvious opportunity to BUY CAD, GOLD,SILVER,Frank,EUR against USD. You can find our open trading positions list at our web page.

I agree with arigoldman above and you here that at the moment USD/RUB is untradable, meaning that it is either neutral or with risk to the upside but still not totally clear to me. That is also the reason why I have not posted anything lately. You could be making money every night being short but the risk of a counter move to the upside is very high so I prefer to stay out at the moment and observe market waiting for a good opportunity.

A lot easier and safer to short at a good spot and leave as is while getting a handsome rollover payment.

I shorted this pair starting Aug 2015 and left it there ever since. So far I got 400-500 pips rollover interest.

I treat RUB as a proxy to oil, so if you think oil is on a rebound, then you should think about get in on this pair. Oil contract is just a nightmare to trade.

This is the carry trade of the decade until Russian lower their interest rate and Feds increase US.

One good thing about carry trade is that TIME is on your side. If you get 1-1.5 pip per day and know the general direction is down (USD/RUB) then you have less stressed about timing and you can "buy it and forget it" even if you are off 100 pips.

My prediction as of Jan 2017 is that if you short around the 60-61 level, you will make a handsome return in a year. And the profit will be two parts, rollover interest plus FX gain. If your FX gain is negative, you are guaranteed rollover payment to offset it. Maybe you get lucky like me and got 400-500 pips in roll and 400-500 pips in gain by being PATIENT and do NOTHING. This was part of the Kantor method Brijon taught us a few years ago here.

These charts and analysis are good and all, but you have to know the guys who wrote them wants you to trade often. That is how they make money!

They only get me twice (10-15 pips) when I buy and when I sell.

Going further down ?!

Spot and futures confirmation (2h TF) charts.

However, notice that the CB of the Russian Federation intends buying USDs from February 7 till March 6, 2017 (http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/80862).

Best
D.P.

Traders positions opened for USDRUB (Chicago M.Ex.)

https://investbrothers.ru/posicii_usdrub/

Best
D.P.

P.S.

...As well as...

WTI, NYMEX - https://investbrothers.ru/posicii_neft/
&
WTI, ICE Futures Europe - https://investbrothers.ru/posicii_oil_ice/

Just a note about the direction of USD/RUB as it is becoming again interesting to trade, or will soon anyway. I think the current uptrend will take USD/RUB to 62.45 to close the gap that has been left open since the 9th of Dec. This level or around there will be an interesting level to start shorting again as it will have fulfilled multiple targets.