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AUD/USD

  • #99,941
  • Nov 28, 2016 8:48pm Nov 28, 2016 8:48pm
Quoting lioslim
the best scenario will be to go all the way to 78%(23% on my chart) and touch the declining yellow line
Show it again
  • #99,942
  • Nov 28, 2016 8:51pm Nov 28, 2016 8:51pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} you have your opinion, others have theirs. and mine reads that fundamentals lead the markets. for instance, the recent rise in the USD. clearly driven by fundamentals which were already known. what you're probably referring to is news trading ... like, "a piece of news is what explains why a big decline or increase happened." and in that light, for example, if the RBA were to suddenly suggest a rate increase at their next meeting, you can well be assured that the AUD will not obey wave theory; it will most likely climb rapidly over a week....

Show a chart where you used fundamentals to predict a move. If you cant then lets us know where AU is going.
  • #99,943
  • Nov 28, 2016 8:52pm Nov 28, 2016 8:52pm
Quoting Fhn2557
{quote} Hey man, i didn't brag about anything..if you read what i wrote you would see me saying that i don't know anyone here and no one knows me as well..so there is no point of bragging..right??? Unless some of you geeks here have some personality disorders and insecure and need people's attention..but not me.... Unless we are now in a forum called Red Alert then you can keep you suggestions and opinion to yourself..What contribution is that to tell us the price of Iron ore?? And no, i am not here to contribute as no need to waste time teaching...
So why should I care you made 1 mill? It was obvious brag, or was there some reason you posted that? Otherwise I'm confused by your decision to post in this forum other than to troll. Observation can be done without commenting. Be silent. Please.
  • #99,944
  • Nov 28, 2016 8:54pm Nov 28, 2016 8:54pm
next targets

7578 is a big one (was strong support previously, now flipping to resistance)
7511 quite likely to be hit - also preceded by the 100bar 4H moving average - should pose some level of resistance; although i doubt strong enough to send it to the bottom of the trend channel
7525-7578 should see further consolidation, if the pair reaches 7578, leading it to break outside the current trend channel; next direction to be determined by other factors
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-291116.jpg Size: 367 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au-291116b.jpg Size: 280 KB
  • #99,945
  • Nov 28, 2016 8:57pm Nov 28, 2016 8:57pm
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} Show a chart where you used fundamentals to predict a move. If you cant then lets us know where AU is going.
i will not make a call in ignorance and tell you IT'S GOING UP!! or down whatever. but you can see from my charts where i'm most likely to want to pull a trade. with the fundamental facts in mind, at least i will know where the risks lie.

btw, im just reading your comments which you posted while i was drafting my post with the charts. if you choose to continue challenging everyone, whilst insisting you're the God in this forum, i think it's indeed time i will start ignoring you...since there's no value in your discussion.
  • #99,946
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:01pm Nov 28, 2016 9:01pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} im just reading your comments which you posted after posting my chart. if you choose to continue challenging everyone, whilst insisting you're the God in this forum, i think it's indeed time i will start ignoring you...since there's no value in your discussion.
And again you completely ignored my dollar index chart disproving fundamentals.. lol Discussion with you do not have any value absolutely right.
  • #99,947
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:04pm Nov 28, 2016 9:04pm
Quoting ell3
next targets 7578 is a big one (was strong support previously, now flipping to resistance) 7511 quite likely to be hit - also preceded by the 100bar 4H moving average - should pose some level of resistance; although i doubt strong enough to send it to the bottom of the trend channel 7525-7578 should see further consolidation, if the pair reaches 7578, leading it to break outside the current trend channel; next direction to be determined by other factors {image} {image}

What your showing here is pure technically based which is good means you're learning. The next direction is to the downside because these patterns are continuation patterns. No need for other factors.
  • #99,948
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:07pm Nov 28, 2016 9:07pm
Nice channel you have really. I wonder how it will behave.

*hint*
Attached Image
  • #99,949
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:12pm Nov 28, 2016 9:12pm
This is basic wave analysis btw.
  • #99,950
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:18pm Nov 28, 2016 9:18pm
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} Like I said all fundamentals are good for is looking in the past to try and explain why a big decline or increase happened


Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} Show a chart where you used fundamentals to predict a move. If you cant then lets us know where AU is going.
You dont need a chart to determine the intrinsic value of a currency. Its by forecasting future economic events by current monetary and fiscals policies, inflation with AU its commodity prices and demand for those commodities. Retail spending, employment and wage growth.

I have forecast the Aussie to be at .59 by the end of 2017 by then we will be at the bottom of the economic cycle and will continue low until 2022 when things will start to pick up. Highly possible to hit .65 end of December this year. This will largely depend how hawkish the Feds are and what that say about further hikes next year.

Mid last year i forecast the AUD to .72 when most technical analysts were posing back up to .90, funny enough some wave analysts are still posing it will go up to around .86. Where did it go? .72... It would of kept falling if the commodities hadent rallied. Why did they rally again? Because of Chinese monetary stimulation and Government projects.

I have said this more than 12 months ago without needing to look at any charts.

This si the difference with fundamentals you dont need to see charts. And its not guess work either.

The charts move economies
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,951
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:30pm Nov 28, 2016 9:30pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} {quote} You dont need a chart to determine the intrinsic value of a currency. Its by forecasting future economic events by current monetary and fiscals policies, inflation with AU its commodity prices and demand for those commodities. Retail spending, employment and wage growth. I have forecast the Aussie to be at .59 by the end of 2017 by then we will be at the bottom of the economic cycle and will continue low until 2022 when things will start to pick up. Highly possible to hit .65 end of December this year. This will largely depend...
So then place a short and hold it to .59 and by 2017 you'll be a millionaire like the other dude.
  • #99,952
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:34pm Nov 28, 2016 9:34pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} {quote} You dont need a chart to determine the intrinsic value of a currency. Its by forecasting future economic events by current monetary and fiscals policies, inflation with AU its commodity prices and demand for those commodities. Retail spending, employment and wage growth. I have forecast the Aussie to be at .59 by the end of 2017 by then we will be at the bottom of the economic cycle and will continue low until 2022 when things will start to pick up. Highly possible to hit .65 end of December this year. This will largely depend...
Please explain my spot on Dollar analysis without using fundamentals. Is it just luck and Should I play the lotto then. Because I dont know what move the chart exactly with my arrows. And explain my Aussie chart while your at it.
  • #99,953
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:38pm Nov 28, 2016 9:38pm
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} Please explain my spot on Dollar analysis without using fundamentals. Is it just luck and Should I play the lotto then. Because I dont know what move the chart exactly with my arrows. And explain my Aussie chart while your at it.
This is technical without EW theory.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot-www.forextradingforprofit.com.au 2016-11-29 14-06-53.png Size: 93 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,954
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:46pm Nov 28, 2016 9:46pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} This is technical without EW theory. {image}

Your showing a move up a move down then a move up... I don't know about you but that kinda looks like waves... But what do I know.

How did you know it was going to break out, re test the trend line, then continue up.. Nice wave analysis my friend. Cant do that with fundamentals..

I love when people prove themselves wrong.

You should learn more of this magical stuff.
  • #99,955
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:48pm Nov 28, 2016 9:48pm
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} So then place a short and hold it to .59 and by 2017 you'll be a millionaire like the other dude.
There is no point, why hold a trade when price goes up and down and you can profit many times instead of one time, unless you are holding it for yield. Anything can happen, the future is determined from events that unfold today.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,956
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:49pm Nov 28, 2016 9:49pm
Anyways a quick lesson for you guys while AU is in correction.

Here are the two diagonals AU created.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: download (94)1.png Size: 302 KB


Knowledge people. Don't believe what anyone tells you. Go prove it works for yourself
  • #99,957
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:51pm Nov 28, 2016 9:51pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} There is no point, why hold a trade when price goes up and down and you can profit many times instead of one time, unless you are holding it for yield. Anything can happen, the future is determined from events that unfold today.
What do you call that when price goes up and down waves maybe? And what are these waves creating? probably patterns

Its like teaching a 3yr old ... Your doing this stuff and you don't even know it. Imagine if you learn more of it
  • #99,958
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:53pm Nov 28, 2016 9:53pm
Just kidding go wait for nonfarm payroll and place a trade
  • #99,959
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:54pm Nov 28, 2016 9:54pm
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} Your showing a move up a move down then a move up... I don't know about you but that kinda looks like waves... But what do I know. How did you know it was going to break out, re test the trend line, then continue up.. Nice wave analysis my friend. Cant do that with fundamentals.. I love when people prove themselves wrong. You should learn more of this magical stuff.
Errr no... Funny enough I was grilled for that analysis a few months ago most technical analysts were looking at a dollar crash a failing trend but me no. I wouldn't of been able to have that accurate analysis without the back up of fundamentals. With the Feds iin hiking phase its more probable.

I will remain bearish on the Aussie untill fundamentals tell otherwise.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,960
  • Nov 28, 2016 9:59pm Nov 28, 2016 9:59pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Errr no... Funny enough I was grilled for that analysis a few months ago most technical analysts were looking at a dollar crash a failing trend but me no. I wouldn't of been able to have that accurate analysis without the back up of fundamentals. With the Feds iin hiking phase its more probable. I will remain bearish on the Aussie untill fundamentals tell otherwise.
Lmao your so caught in hating that you cant even admit to yourself that you were analyzing waves.

This is crazy stuff people.
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