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  • #145,721
  • Nov 28, 2016 2:53pm Nov 28, 2016 2:53pm
One could reasonably substitute "immigrants" with "trade deals" as well.
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  • #145,722
  • Nov 28, 2016 2:57pm Nov 28, 2016 2:57pm
Quoting The Fool
I axed Santa for a pullback.
I have been good ... I want 2,150 for FOMC week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,723
  • Nov 28, 2016 2:57pm Nov 28, 2016 2:57pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Plato may have preferred it said differently... In Democracy, you'll never get a majority for policies that benefit the majority of the people.
Appreciated, but then again, I'm not Plato

Quoting goosebone
One could reasonably substitute "immigrants" with "trade deals" as well. {image}
Gloablism is just too big for common folks. Just suck it up.
The other side sounds like "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche", and you know what happened to them.
  • #145,724
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:00pm Nov 28, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Appreciated, but then again, I'm not Plato {quote} Gloablism is just too big for common folks. Just suck it up. The other side sounds like "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche", and you know what happened to them.
He was LGBT

We could always create more jobs by un-creating more people
  • #145,725
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:06pm Nov 28, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I don't really disagree with most your premises. You sound like an educated and intelligent person. You are coming from a very well formed opinion about social classes and the relation between states, markets and society. I particularly find them valid but way too 'left' ideologically for my personal taste to share your views. We can discuss and have a healthy exchange of comments on this for pages and pages, however your well rounded opinion doesn't remotely represent the mental process of the average 'anti-establishment' voter in the last...
That i completly agree with. Like i said in my comment, the majority of anti-establishment voters might have voted for completly different reasons of how they define establishment than myself (not that i voted at all or find to vote for anything at all in US) or the little portion of people that found the same view. Which goes to same point, the way you defined anti-establishment in previous post is very open ended, like 99% of voters IF one applys very strict theory of how to actually define establishment.

If i had to define avarage anti establishment voter i would define it very simply like a regular gold bug. He keeps shouting "collapse comming" "collapse comming", they will be wrong for many different reasons for while, but once they will be right, and when they will be they will bend their reasoning of "correct" to their view. So you can find 100s of views in Trump/Brexit voters, but if you ask any of them, many of them will find very specific and yet very wrong reason (if you depick it historically and rationally) why they think the majority of voters cast the vote they did. I can tell you for the fact for hunders of persons that i listened to that they think the Trump or Brexit voters voted the way they did becouse they have specific opinion, yet they have no actual connection to the ground, since the actual vote was casted for all the other reasons. Gold bugs still think the majorit of Trump voters voted becouse economy in US is not good and they want it better, its very childish view on actual casting. People who live inside matrix thought majority of Trump votes become becouse of fear of muslim terrorists. Name a group, name a view, one can find plenty. But ye it goes to above said, what did people actually vote for? For trading that is interesting pehonemon, and it actually doesnt matter. No person can find proper reason becouse one cannot read the mind of whole market before the fact (unless proven before many times). That is why we trade PA, historical pattern prints. Like you said before, expectations first, facts latter, in fact i would add, facts dont even matter much as long as they are extended and market/masses dont realise once the oposite side is materialized.

In last sentence you just avaraged out 90% of voters in any country in history for any vote ever made. Thats how majority of voters operate, the form their "opinion" on matter few weeks before election. This just confirms with bold strong black latters, why expections and opinions in markets are much more powerful than actual rational reasons/facts. Its all just a matrix.....
  • #145,726
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:08pm Nov 28, 2016 3:08pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} You nail it with this, sisse. People are much smarter than you think. When the alternative is cutting the penis off, who wouldn't chose "hope", no matter what is coming at a later point in time? Years ago, I collected negative points because of people complaining, when I said, Erdogan is a dictator, and again, when I said, Obama is the 1st black president - full stop, nothing more positive to see with him. Clinton stated, she is going to war with Russia (no-fly zone bs etc.), while Trump said the opposite. Who'd vote for Clinton? Both candidates...
"At one point, the intellectual folks have to step aside and go on holiday for some time."

Haha, that is all one can do. Brilliant point. The system and macros are not worth fighting against, you cant win. Just take the holidays.
  • #145,727
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:12pm Nov 28, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Plato may have preferred it said differently... In Democracy, you'll never get a majority for policies that benefit the majority of the people.
Hm that is perhaps wrong. The key is that even the Greeks or Athenians never had full textbook democracy. Full democracy was only alive in book, never actually implemented becouse there is always will/power/capital of upper part of pyramid to disturb it. That is what probably Plato didnt recognize then since things werent that sophisticated much before. In textbook democracy the numbers HAVE to bend the laws and intention to the masses, and since they dont, obviously there is error somewhere that is not a part of democracy itself, its ouside that is bending it.
  • #145,728
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:15pm Nov 28, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Gloablism is just too big for common folks. Just suck it up. The other side sounds like "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche", and you know what happened to them.
Right. Progress is the problem that creates these groups who lose out on the globalization deal then look to government to stand in its way with antitrade policy. Stick it's thumb in the dam, for how long?. Perhaps there is a role for government to play. Softening the blow. Tariffs, retraining, whatever. But looking for solutions along those lines sure flies in the face of the "small government" don't tread on me types who were the tea party and are now the Trump party. If that's what they really wanted they should have been wearing Bernie hats.
The main takeaway I see is of a less cerebral plan of action and more of a wrench in the machine "fu take that!" punk rock outburst. Evidenced by the big time overlooked large support trump had with plenty college educated republicans who weren't just voting against HRC but more wanting to see what happens when we just rip the damn wheels off.
  • #145,729
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:26pm Nov 28, 2016 3:26pm


I still say Neil Degrasse Tyson would have made a hell of a president
  • #145,730
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:37pm Nov 28, 2016 3:37pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I still say Neil Degrasse Tyson would have made a hell of a president
Hell yes
  • #145,731
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:47pm Nov 28, 2016 3:47pm
EU lining up for slightly bully D close
  • #145,732
  • Nov 28, 2016 3:59pm Nov 28, 2016 3:59pm
Quoting goosebone
EU lining up for slightly bully D close
Whats bullish about it? No HL yet formed, no bull impulsive leg run, no micro patterns to signal break of current high. Atm only slight bullish view is possible bottom formation with HL h4 if one trades that directly with risk bellow the low or micros. 0610 was entry, with tight risk its a good trade, but there are better setups to go by tomorrow.
  • #145,733
  • Nov 28, 2016 4:08pm Nov 28, 2016 4:08pm
...and we rolled. Calm US session in contrast of the rest of the world. Only highlight is the superb ride in NG (for those tracking N.Gas from PM and twitter) we are +35% rally this month and counting.

On the rest of the board, Euro sitting 1.061x as widely expected since last week and US Equities just waiting for reports to start the week.

sisse

Quoting goosebone
EU lining up for slightly bully D close
In your opinion which of the following statements do you think have higher odds?

 

  1. Euro will be trading the 1.02xx handle for Dec FED; or
  2. Euro will be trading the 1.10xx handle for Dec FED

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,734
  • Nov 28, 2016 4:15pm Nov 28, 2016 4:15pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. Calm US session in contrast of the rest of the world. Only highlight is the superb ride in NG (for those tracking N.Gas from PM and twitter) we are +35% rally this month and counting.
I am in cheap call spreads via UNG and CHK, still plenty time on those and just a polar vortex or two away from glory. I am waiting watching the equities market now, have traps set for a little later and in no hurry to risk any more bait.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,735
  • Edited 4:44pm Nov 28, 2016 4:17pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. Calm US session in contrast of the rest of the world. Only highlight is the superb ride in NG (for those tracking N.Gas from PM and twitter) we are +35% rally this month and counting. On the rest of the board, Euro sitting 1.061x as widely expected since last week and US Equities just waiting for reports to start the week. sisse {quote} In your opinion which of the following statements do you think have higher odds? Euro will be trading the 1.02xx handle for Dec FED; or Euro will be trading the 1.10xx handle for Dec FED sisse
All about 520 to me. But that pinprick through it made me feel it might go before news so I would think 1 if we are talking odds, although 1.02 looks pretty far down. (If 2 comes through I'll be burned I closed my long and got short at 0674 although it's a tight stop and already paid for by taking off 1/3)
  • #145,736
  • Nov 28, 2016 4:20pm Nov 28, 2016 4:20pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. Calm US session in contrast of the rest of the world. Only highlight is the superb ride in NG (for those tracking N.Gas from PM and twitter) we are +35% rally this month and counting. On the rest of the board, Euro sitting 1.061x as widely expected since last week and US Equities just waiting for reports to start the week. sisse {quote} In your opinion which of the following statements do you think have higher odds? Euro will be trading the 1.02xx handle for Dec FED; or Euro will be trading the 1.10xx handle for Dec FED sisse
NG i track only for macro plus max macro play, meaning shorts only. Until the Syria is overtaken (1-3 years estimation), Ukraine in control of west and all the pipelines that are meant to be build since 80s and 90s were set in stone, its all short on price side. 35% rally on macro play is only a great chance to short more, until the pipelines are all set in EU US and especially middle east. Price is relative to the one that supplys and demands it the most, the current global empire defines prices of most of commodities trough demand especially, one has to stay on that train to know where the train is set to go. Supply has no control on price, if demand has full leverage of system on its side. That is why 99% of economists are not milionairers. Simple.
  • #145,737
  • Nov 28, 2016 4:25pm Nov 28, 2016 4:25pm
Quoting sisse
... In your opinion which of the following statements do you think have higher odds? Euro will be trading the 1.02xx handle for Dec FED; or Euro will be trading the 1.10xx handle for Dec FED sisse
best chance for a risk pullback will be this and next week, so I'd guess bastards will push fiber closer to $1.10, spoos down to 2,150 or lower by FOMC week. Is what I have asked for and also please Santa the dry powder to fade both those gifties on the hike delivery, although no I am not trading eurotrashcash. For a hedge I have long vol spreads set for FOMC week and several weeks beyond in case the Fed whiffs, which I will also ride like a brand new pony.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,738
  • Edited 6:01pm Nov 28, 2016 4:57pm | Edited 6:01pm
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbla.../#5836a69050c4

"According to U.S. Global Platts, the U.S. has this month become a net exporter of natural gas for the first time in more than 60 years.
In the near term, this new market reality will have little impact on the price for the commodity, as it will continue to be set separately from prices in other parts of the world, based almost solely on the supply/demand equation in the U.S. domestic market. But in the long term, the opening of new markets all over the globe for natural gas produced in the United States will ultimately fundamentally change the way prices are set for this critical American product. As exports of LNG continue to rapidly grow in volume, there will eventually come a point in time at which the price for the commodity will begin to be determined on a global, rather than local basis."

...when the Widowmaker swings with the USD, could be some wild, whacky shit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,739
  • Nov 28, 2016 5:08pm Nov 28, 2016 5:08pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbla.../#5836a69050c4 "According to U.S. Global Platts, the U.S. has this month become a net exporter of natural gas for the first time in more than 60 years. In the near term, this new market reality will have little impact on the price for the commodity, as it will continue to be set separately from prices in other parts of the world, based almost solely on the supply/demand...

Macros are always priced in trough micros. There is clear line infront of macros signalign it if you know where to look. Current XBrent/WTI is only about to go up/oil down. Mind that when economists or so called "experts" call the rally its all baked in if you know correct patterns
  • #145,740
  • Nov 28, 2016 5:15pm Nov 28, 2016 5:15pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Whats bullish about it? No HL yet formed, no bull impulsive leg run, no micro patterns to signal break of current high. Atm only slight bullish view is possible bottom formation with HL h4 if one trades that directly with risk bellow the low or micros. 0610 was entry, with tight risk its a good trade, but there are better setups to go by tomorrow.
Honestly zooming in a bit too much probably. Found what looked like a flip level at 0610 in recent small tf price action and felt we'd close above it which might be slightly bullish for the extremely short out future that's all. I'm short eu atm.
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