Suprises not Trichet's style | Forex Factory

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Suprises not Trichet's style

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 30, 2006 5:10pm Aug 30, 2006 5:10pm
I don't see Trichet Suprising anyone at the rate announcment tommorow. Maybe he can say something in the speech to shake things up.
I would not be opposed to a tip of the hand.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #2
  • Aug 30, 2006 5:11pm Aug 30, 2006 5:11pm
surprises may not be his style, but he sure as hell has been moving the market with these little press conferences of his...
Relax and be happy.
  • #3
  • Aug 30, 2006 7:19pm Aug 30, 2006 7:19pm
Merlin, I tried to look at the calendar for the last time he spoke, but couldn't confirm how many points moved. Couldn't make the calendar large enough.

I'm going to assume that it moved 200 pips every time he speaks, and leverage myself at 400/1.
  • #4
  • Aug 30, 2006 7:42pm Aug 30, 2006 7:42pm
Quoting JasonGuillen
Merlin, I tried to look at the calendar for the last time he spoke, but couldn't confirm how many points moved. Couldn't make the calendar large enough.

I'm going to assume that it moved 200 pips every time he speaks, and leverage myself at 400/1.
August 3 was the last announcement. He only moved the EUR by about 40 pips. But, what was interesting was it preceded the NFP, just like this month. The NFP in August went nuts and was probably being fueled by his comments the day before. At least, I think that's what happened.
  • #5
  • Aug 31, 2006 3:07am Aug 31, 2006 3:07am
Would you guys trade EUR for ECB announcements or would you go for cable for the higher volatility?

Just wondering.

CB
  • #6
  • Aug 31, 2006 3:39am Aug 31, 2006 3:39am
Quoting CityBound
Would you guys trade EUR for ECB announcements or would you go for cable for the higher volatility?

Just wondering.

CB
Cough, cough...

Are you referring to GBPUSD, or EURGBP?

Because ECB is an EUR news - it has nothing to do with GBPUSD. Though there is a strong correlation between GBPUSD and EURUSD, still ECB is not a GBP news.
  • #7
  • Aug 31, 2006 4:01am Aug 31, 2006 4:01am
Quoting BurgerKing
Cough, cough...

Are you referring to GBPUSD, or EURGBP?

Because ECB is an EUR news - it has nothing to do with GBPUSD. Though there is a strong correlation between GBPUSD and EURUSD, still ECB is not a GBP news.
That's what I'm talking about, cable reacts to EUR news as well because of the correlation. The jump in cable can be larger than the jump in EUR/USD because it's more volatile. Sure, technically it's not GBP news, but when has that ever bothered the markets?
  • #8
  • Aug 31, 2006 4:09am Aug 31, 2006 4:09am
i think the markets are already priced in for this kinda news, i dont think there will be alot movement, maybe 50-70 pips. i see the markets ranging and not moving like they do normally on non-farm payrolls if today they move around 100 pips.

i would personally trade g/u, as u rightly say its more volatile and i dont see alota room for e/u to move anyways, the market is ranging and its already priced in for a weak dollar.

these are just my views

Ahmed
  • #9
  • Aug 31, 2006 4:30am Aug 31, 2006 4:30am
Quoting merlin
surprises may not be his style, but he sure as hell has been moving the market with these little press conferences of his...
I remember back in April when he verbally bludgeoned the euro saying it was too high, that was around 2300, and the eurusd dropped by over 100 pips. Wonder what will happen today - his speech co-incides with Personal spending and Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - we could be in for a ride.
  • #10
  • Aug 31, 2006 2:30pm Aug 31, 2006 2:30pm
What a nice drop today. Right back down to the old fallen trendline at 2785. I wonder how many traders got caught long after the failure to breach 2780. As I was watching the press conference, Trichet only said "strong vigilence" 1 time. Last time he used the word vigilence 7 times. With feeds of central bank selling ahead of 2780, it was a great shorting opportunity to catch the market long. How did you guys do?
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #11
  • Aug 31, 2006 4:09pm Aug 31, 2006 4:09pm
I didn't go long until 1.28 which to be honest Im quite nervous about. Any kind of non farm payrolls over expectations and the dollar bulls will be in business so Im undecided whether to stay in or take my small profit.
  • #12
  • Aug 31, 2006 6:24pm Aug 31, 2006 6:24pm
Quoting Money Talks
I didn't go long until 1.28 which to be honest Im quite nervous about. Any kind of non farm payrolls over expectations and the dollar bulls will be in business so Im undecided whether to stay in or take my small profit.
No guts, No glory.

.
  • #13
  • Last Post: Sep 1, 2006 8:04am Sep 1, 2006 8:04am
Quoting ahmedjilani
i think the markets are already priced in for this kinda news, i dont think there will be alot movement, maybe 50-70 pips. i see the markets ranging and not moving like they do normally on non-farm payrolls if today they move around 100 pips.

i would personally trade g/u, as u rightly say its more volatile and i dont see alota room for e/u to move anyways, the market is ranging and its already priced in for a weak dollar.

these are just my views

Ahmed
Good call Ahmed. You were dead on.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
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