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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,661
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:56pm Nov 25, 2016 7:56pm
Quoting mclon
link in your PM
my bad, now I know what Pizzagate is....sort of
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,662
  • Nov 26, 2016 3:25am Nov 26, 2016 3:25am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Thank you for your view. It is valuable and appreciated as always. I agree with you . And also your previous post here about AUD. I try with an map here and in sell outlook for short and middle term has an close to 1000 pip range. Also I found so good picture posted in another thread here at FF today that I repost here . It is showing the current situation very visually {image} {image}
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PVSRA
  • #145,663
  • Nov 26, 2016 5:48am Nov 26, 2016 5:48am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} {image} {image}
And by zooming in to daily charts we find the strong handles from previous structure ( Thin blue lines ) . We had a weekly close just below strong resistance. handle level at .7050 area. So it is bearish imo. The Support levels or handels below is good TP targets ( 6 levels to choose from ) This levels are having Sisse's rule dont be a dick to the tick .
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,664
  • Nov 26, 2016 12:50pm Nov 26, 2016 12:50pm
Jill playing Hillary proxy
  • #145,665
  • Nov 26, 2016 12:58pm Nov 26, 2016 12:58pm
Another count , lol
Attached Image
  • #145,666
  • Edited 3:12pm Nov 26, 2016 2:55pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Solid post. Just 2 quick comments. --> First a imminent break down alert doesn't mean blindly jump in on board (if you are not already in) but look for opps ASAP according to your parameters to jump on board. That's why I call it early imminent break down alerts ... --> Second, all nice but where the heck is the other side of the equation in the analysis. Where is the Euro* part in all this...remember every pair has 2 sides (which makes things in FX even more complex to analyse) sometimes one side is in the driver seat and the other is just...
yes yes, I know that EURO has to be taken into account too. I just wanted to show how to work with the expectations concerning one event (FED) as we discussed how expectations and multiple facts create the price in time.

So a follow up on the short term: this is NEW short term map.

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In mid term context: with the previous and now finished short term leg we moved one "lvl" lower under flip

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The dillema is if we get another short term leg right now (clean sweep) to the main mid term target or we chop for a while/short term. Fundamentally sisse has decided that it will not hold most likely as he changed short term to sell. Technically alerts of imminent break downs point to it too. Im flat in E/U now so Im thinking how to try to play this break - as disccused before - not an easy thing. So if PCE + NFP = inline with exp = no event = we remain where we are. But on a strong overshoot - I would go in - I think even overshoots will not break the low =) but will force the price to sit on the low extreme for ECB and not upper - so PCE and NFP can be for prepostioning?

Last chart roughly suggests the price under these conditions: inline (some form of mentioning of tapering)/slightly dovish ECB = we break down. Only very hawkish tone can protect the low. And FED: inline (= hawkish) - will be met at the end of the short term leg + hawkish overshoot from FED may give us the extension.

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  • #145,667
  • Nov 26, 2016 3:29pm Nov 26, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} yes yes, I know that EURO has to be taken into account too. I just wanted to show how to work with the expectations concerning one event (FED) as we discussed how expectations and multiple facts create the price in time. So a follow up on the short term: this is NEW short term map. {image} In mid term context: with the previous and now finished short term leg we moved one "lvl" lower under flip {image} The dillema is if we get another short term leg right now (clean sweep) to the main mid term target or we chop for a while/short term. Fundamentally...
Â
I cannot stress enough how graphics help some of us learn what 1000 words cannot express .
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I am risking some one to tell me to go f myself for not searching for it but I will ask anyway. I understand if I am ignored. All good. I am at a kids party and on my phone.Â
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What is flip? I know the expression flip a coin so it is like switch or turn right? so at that level it can turn on us?
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All those graphics from all of you show these "extremes" at top and bottom. now the silly question is whether in Euro USD and nzd usd charts shown above you are only considering going short because fundamentals tell you that that is the possible direction? or those lines show a range where you would go long when price is at the bottom and viceversa at the top?
  • #145,668
  • Nov 26, 2016 3:38pm Nov 26, 2016 3:38pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} I cannot stress enough how graphics help some of us learn what 1000 word cannot express . I am risking some one to tell me to go f myself for not searching for it but I will ask anyway. I understanfc if I am ignored. all good What is flip? I know the expression flip a coin so it is like switch or turn right? so at that level it can turn? All those graphics from all of you show these "extremes" at top and bottom. now the silly question is whether in Euro USD and nzd usd charts shown above you are only considering going short...
In sisses history there is definition of flip made by him so I recommend to find his explanation. Just simly as I understand it: that is where price tends to incline, change direction, comes back. The way you work with the lvls is based on the outlook - outlook is based ONLY on fundamental analysis and you trade according to outlook. See the chart how it works - its previous short term range - once a while when u change outlook you have to recalibrate the map. Also see the sisse last post with attachment. That is a modeled chart with explained lvls - what they mean.
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  • #145,669
  • Nov 26, 2016 4:28pm Nov 26, 2016 4:28pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} In sisses history there is definition of flip made by him so I recommend to find his explanation. Just simly as I understand it: that is where price tends to incline, change direction, comes back. The way you work with the lvls is based on the outlook - outlook is based ONLY on fundamental analysis and you trade according to outlook. See the chart how it works - its previous short term range - once a while when u change outlook you have to recalibrate the map. Also see the sisse last post with attachment. That is a modeled chart with explained...
 
Will read at home. I did see his generic pics and now i got the main idea.  thanks a lot. I guess again it all comes to 
1 getting fundamentals and as a result direction right
2 sell high, buy low
 
Easier said than done right?  
 
  • #145,670
  • Nov 26, 2016 4:44pm Nov 26, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Will read at home. I did see his generic pics and now i got the main idea. thanks a lot. I guess again it all comes to 1 getting fundamentals and as a result direction right 2 sell high, buy low Easier said than done right?
yes, yes, fundamentals and technicals and its stil not enough... timing, managment of positions, reducing risk, inner psychology etc. Neverending story. Just a hint as you are new here: not so long time ago sisse also posted things about managment of positions, risk and generally trading strategy/position management. In my view: its imposible to be profitable without what he wrote there - basically without consistency and ability to reduce your risk. And thats something I was missing for my whole trading life. So just a recommendation to look at that.. Once you see it it seems like kind of known facts made too complicated - but the key to trading is there in my view (dont expect anything like holly grail of trading...... of course it works ONLY joined with proper FA, TA, timing, discipline etc.). Have a great weekend everyone!!
  • #145,671
  • Nov 26, 2016 8:06pm Nov 26, 2016 8:06pm
Clinton team to take part in U.S. state vote recount, Trump blasts effort

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=618131
  • #145,672
  • Nov 26, 2016 8:07pm Nov 26, 2016 8:07pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Jill playing Hillary proxy
I axed Santa for a pullback.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,673
  • Nov 27, 2016 8:50am Nov 27, 2016 8:50am
Off thread topics..any recommendations on software for diary/trade journal? Diary for analysis, updates, maps, daily thoughts etc. and journal for recording/analyzing trades. Have checked out a good few already..pm please if you have anything that you have used.
Thanks in advance, pas.
  • #145,674
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:15pm Nov 27, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting PAStalker
Off thread topics..any recommendations on software for diary/trade journal? Diary for analysis, updates, maps, daily thoughts etc. and journal for recording/analyzing trades. Have checked out a good few already..pm please if you have anything that you have used. Thanks in advance, pas.
Don't go the software route just yet, do actual ledgers.
  • #145,675
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:17pm Nov 27, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
Clinton team to take part in U.S. state vote recount, Trump blasts effort http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=618131
It happened, didn't it? Wasn't she the one whining about Trump stating the obvious beforehand, thus threatening democracy? Ridiculous hag, she is.
  • #145,676
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:18pm Nov 27, 2016 3:18pm
cut your losses, let your winners run..........?

https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/11...0000-migrants/

"repatriation, repatriation and once more, repatriation.”
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,677
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:29pm Nov 27, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} yes yes, I know that EURO has to be taken into account too. I just wanted to show how to work with the expectations concerning one event (FED) as we discussed how expectations and multiple facts create the price in time. So a follow up on the short term: this is NEW short term map. {image} In mid term context: with the previous and now finished short term leg we moved one "lvl" lower under flip {image} The dillema is if we get another short term leg right now (clean sweep) to the main mid term target or we chop for a while/short term. Fundamentally...
I agree on certain sides, but the target for shorts is larger, not sure what you mean by 3rd projection but actual projection is larger, way bellow parity for usual provided target. That is 20% of EUR drop against USD not just 500 or so pips. 1:1 targets the way you are projecting it are usual for structures that have breaks on clear consoliadtions with bull impulsive legs, in this case impulsive move is very clear for extended target bearish (monthly). Current micro shorts have excellent RR if you clear them out quick so no need to wait. If there is heavy quick retrace then short term game changes, but long term all targets stay the same, its all about timing the micros and where and how to cut them ( i usually cut half of position on BE and half on max SL).
  • #145,678
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:34pm Nov 27, 2016 3:34pm
Quoting PAStalker
Off thread topics..any recommendations on software for diary/trade journal? Diary for analysis, updates, maps, daily thoughts etc. and journal for recording/analyzing trades. Have checked out a good few already..pm please if you have anything that you have used. Thanks in advance, pas.
I use paper and notepad. Some use Excel. Some else....

Its really not about how sophisticated your software is to track the trades, its about how many views and infos about your trades you are tracking. Avarage DD, High TF vs Low TF closes against you, macro micro with or against you, RR per trade, preffered vs actual entry (if breakout trading especially), etc etc. The more detailed analysis you can make from the many aspects of that the better your edge will be on long run, software pick makes less of a significance, since the actual data starts to make its impact in 100, 200 or so trades so 500 will most likely with exact same approach deliver same results.
  • #145,679
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:44pm Nov 27, 2016 3:44pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I agree on certain sides, but the target for shorts is larger, not sure what you mean by 3rd projection but actual projection is larger, way bellow parity for usual provided target. That is 20% of EUR drop against USD not just 500 or so pips. 1:1 targets the way you are projecting it are usual for structures that have breaks on clear consoliadtions with bull impulsive legs, in this case impulsive move is very clear for extended target bearish (monthly). Current micro shorts have excellent RR if you clear them out quick so no need to wait....
well, I think its question of timeframe. the mid term leg is pretty much cooked by now (unless some huge flops/shifts on ECB/FED front - not expected at all by me). and I visualize it as a last mid term swing of long term leg. are lower lvls possible/imaginable? Definitely yes. However, by now we do not have enough information to evalue it. In my view its way out of scope for rational trading. So to me its rational to trade the short term and mid term swing we have now to the long term target and once we there to revaluate again under the FA conditions we have once we there
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  • #145,680
  • Nov 27, 2016 3:56pm Nov 27, 2016 3:56pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} well, I think its question of timeframe. the mid term leg is pretty much cooked by now (unless some huge flops/shifts on ECB/FED front - not expected at all by me). and I visualize it as a last mid term swing of long term leg. are lower lvls possible/imaginable? Definitely yes. However, by now we do not have enough information to evalue it. In my view its way out of scope for rational trading. So to me its rational to trade the short term and mid term swing we have now to the long term target and once we there to revaluate again under the...
Yep trading it from shorter micros along the macro view is the way for now unless something changes drastically on mid term micros If you know your invalidation zones you should be fine, whether we get clear break to downside to pushback its all balanced if you have correct targets and risk. I look for shorts on micros if i get them until the game changes, for now all we have is baked down leg bellow parity, micros have it less than that, but still need large invalidation to get anything above 065 invalidated. Weak closes bellow that are short for me.
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