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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,641
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:38am Nov 25, 2016 7:38am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Protectionism and less free trade is ALWAYS BAD FOR ALL sides involved. Thats a fact. Short term the smaller side gets the worst part but in the mid and long term the large side get geometrical worst off. There is no one single case in world history that a Country, State, Kingdom or Feud of any size has ended up better off, richer and safer with inward looking policies and protectionism. Sure some myopic views may lead some to believe that there are gains but those are always 'pyrrhic victories' (wiki...
Thank you for your view. It is valuable and appreciated as always.

I agree with you . And also your previous post here about AUD. I try with an map here and in sell outlook for short and middle term has an close to 1000 pip range. Also I found so good picture posted in another thread here at FF today that I repost here . It is showing the current situation very visually
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,642
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:51am Nov 25, 2016 7:51am
NY to come expecting a ' hangover' session before we enter in a what is aligning for a very moving Dec/Q1 17 months.

Nothing new across the board with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse

Quoting Earleone
...}
Chart of the month.. jejeje...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,643
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:13am Nov 25, 2016 8:13am
Hi all
Thanks for taking the time to answer. I joined in 2012, and posted many times so I am not a newcomer per se. I was trying to understand one of the basics on trading based on Sisse posts made 10 pages ago, definitely not trying to get a quick answer or get a signal to get in or out (not trading at the moment)
Yes AUD is the one I like most, but in this case I just chose that graphic as an example. Could have been any other.
I found useful that explanation made about bulls and bears fighting each other and how it gets reflected and interpreted when looking at candles.
Cheers!!
  • #145,644
  • Nov 25, 2016 8:45am Nov 25, 2016 8:45am
Just added Little Belgium and beers on the house for sisse to my bucket list. Let's hope I don't kick the bucket prior to then.
  • #145,645
  • Edited 12:01pm Nov 25, 2016 11:05am | Edited 12:01pm
Sometimes guys here share their political/economic observations from their local perspective and I always find it interesting and helpful. While I'm not a guy with a college degree so likely less qualified to give worthy in depth analysis than you all are in thought I'd mention some recent observations I've had from where I sit.
It's widely misunderstood by Americans how the economic house of cards they/we have grown up with is constructed. And how the bottom few cards that are crucial to balance are made up of low skilled workers that for untold years have been undocumented immigrants from other nations. (Not a uniquely American story by any stretch) Recent cries from the agriculture industry "We don't have enough undocumented labor as it is!" show how important this pool is to maintaining the status quo price of goods in the states. I have been in the hospitality industry all of my life. This is another sector supported and essentially totally dependent on undocumented labor to maintain solvency given prices Americans can afford or are currently willing to pay for services.
I'm not offering any new concepts by saying that as it can all be easily surmised with simple research from anywhere on the globe. Also I have no judgements to make regarding right or wrong when it comes to illegal labor since everyone has their own feelings about that none of which are important to assessing the current situation let alone trading it.
Rather I wanted to share very recent and very local observations I've made in my business and those of my peers in hospitality where I am and how it may hint at changes to come. Since the election I have lost roughly 30% of my staff (none of which were employed by my company) and my friends in restaurants here are feeling the same effects. Perhaps knee jerk, perhaps not. You could say these people work off of expectations just like we do.
What's the point? Only that it may not take a mass deportation force to have great consequences for the us economy as we know it. It may only require the suggestion. We will see. But it's important not to underestimate those consequences when considering the future health of the US economy in trading and otherwise. If you take a not totally unrealistic hypothetical that involves vegetables rotting in the fields, $17 heads of lettuce, landscape maintainence bills that top an average mortgage payment, and clean sheets for 20% roomrate markup and add to it a possible trade war with China (read price war at Walmart) and back to unaffordable health premiums for the working class you have a recipe for ugliness regardless of how you feel about the political or moral sides of it.
Like I said, all these possibilities in different forms have been discussed here. I only mean to provide a report from my position on the front line of my microeconomy which is showing me in no uncertain terms that change starts now and wont wait for rhetoric to either be made into law or fade away. How far it goes is hard to tell.
Anyway, this too shall pass I imagine. But it seems to be, for lack of a better term, underconsidered.

Good weekend everyone
  • #145,646
  • Nov 25, 2016 11:26am Nov 25, 2016 11:26am
Quoting goosebone
Sometimes guys here share their political/economic observations from their local perspective and I always find it interesting and helpful. While I'm not a guy with a college degree so likely less qualified to give worthy in depth analysis than you all are in thought I'd mention some recent observations I've had from where I sit. It's widely misunderstood by Americans how the economic house of cards they/we have grown up with is constructed. And how the bottom few cards that are crucial to balance are made up of low skilled workers that for untold...

Main reason I love your post is that you are real, i can tell you a real person telling a real story from real life. There are so many abstract posts in the FX world...Few share real stories and their inherent expectations (whether right or wrong)
  • #145,647
  • Nov 25, 2016 11:50am Nov 25, 2016 11:50am
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Main reason I love your post is that you are real, i can tell you a real person telling a real story from real life. There are so many abstract posts in the FX world...Few share real stories and their inherent expectations (whether right or wrong)
Indeed, we all are never right or wrong in this business ... One might be right the other one might be wrong ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,648
  • Nov 25, 2016 12:21pm Nov 25, 2016 12:21pm
Quoting goosebone
Sometimes guys here share their political/economic observations from their local perspective
just a few anecdotes, as I have already said in here that Trump's proposed protectionist trade policies would crash the US economy.

I have a neighbor who has a business selling floral greens to the big florist markets in the Netherlands. He sources all these materials in the forests out here - a variety of things but mostly the evergreen leafy sprigs that florists use as filler in bouquets. (Salal, etc) This is part of a $50 million per year family business. He runs crews made up entirely of guys from Mexico and Central America, 2-300 of them. I think they can make >$100/day - walking around in the wet or snowy woods, stooping to cut sprigs and packing those into 6-ft hefty bags, humping those back to the van - dawn to dusk.

His workers are all documented (he says), but it doesn't matter - the rumor of the heat and then the actual heat will drive away the documented with the illegals. My neighbor's business would go under, because there are not US citizens willing and able to come out and do that work.

We don't really produce a significant population any more that is used to or even knows what hard physical labor is. Working a shovel or a mattock, swinging a hammer, bending over to pick fresas or pull weeds, carrying heavy burdens up and down hills in the rain and cold. All day, 6-7 days a week. There is still a peasant class in other countries that is born into that work and will do it.

Maybe if all the migrant labor disappeared we would see US citizens come out to do that work? Maybe if we didn't let the US citizens sit around on fake disability claims and other welfare, they would come out to pick fruit and plant trees and build houses and do landscaping and all the other jobs that have been taken over mostly by people from south of the border? I don't know. Could be a very expensive experiment, though, because you could multiply the anecdote above many thousands of times.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,649
  • Nov 25, 2016 12:34pm Nov 25, 2016 12:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}jWorking a shovel or a mattock, swinging a hammer, bending over to pick fresas or pull weeds, carrying heavy burdens up and down hills in the rain and cold. All day, 6-7 days a week. There is still a peasant class in other countries that is born into that work and will do it. Maybe if all the migrant labor disappeared we would see US citizens come out to do that work? Maybe if we didn't let the US citizens sit around on fake disability claims and other welfare, they would come out to pick fruit and plant trees and build houses and do landscaping...
Very nice to read us citizens with common sense. I found it amazing that both in Miami and San Francisco I barely had to speak English. It was all plain Spanish. I didnt see rapists or thieves, just working guys btw trying to make a living.
Now back to FX, what is the impact then? USD falls because the economy goes down the toilet? Or Trump speech is all smoke in the air and will do nothing and things go on as they have so far? I guess it is great for us not living there to hear real stories...thx
  • #145,650
  • Nov 25, 2016 12:43pm Nov 25, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}just a few anecdotes, as I have already said in here that Trump's proposed protectionist trade policies would crash the US economy. I have a neighbor who has a business selling floral greens to the big florist markets in the Netherlands. He sources all these materials in the forests out here - a variety of things but mostly the evergreen leafy sprigs that florists use as filler in bouquets. (Salal, etc) This is part of a $50 million per year family business. He runs crews made up entirely of guys from Mexico and Central America, 2-300 of...
Exactly. In the very long run, perhaps the economy adjusts and all is equal or better. In the not so short run, I don't know. This farmer in Alabama got a taste in 2011:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...on-law-workers

Once again I'm not saying what's right or wrong. I'm only saying that all the speculation about what will happen maybe tested starting far sooner than those speculators thought and that it has real everyday consequences for the economy we know.
  • #145,651
  • Nov 25, 2016 1:32pm Nov 25, 2016 1:32pm
just as scary as the Trump effect on migrant labor is the prospect of trade wars with Asian and other trading partners, and the stronger USD, also. I know a lot of farmers in WA, where I am. WA is the 3rd largest ag exporter in the nation, close to $10 billion a year. They are selling everything from apples to timothy to markets in Japan, S. Korea, and elsewhere. These are guys who will always vote Republican, but they were holding their noses this year....they complain whenever the USD is getting too strong, but if they had to fight import tariffs on top of that, some would go out of business.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,652
  • Nov 25, 2016 1:38pm Nov 25, 2016 1:38pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9238546
I am heading out of TLT put spreads as it has dropped $132 to $120 handle since I entered; financials trades I got in just after the election have not done so well (GS, XLF) as those names popped and have just been grinding sideways the last couple weeks.
Markets have a real "calm before the storm" feel, now I just need to find out when that storm will hit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,653
  • Edited 4:04pm Nov 25, 2016 3:53pm | Edited 4:04pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilbur...ld_Investments

Trump picks Wilbur for Commerce. I guess because Methusaleh was busy? Wilbur'll be 79 next Monday. Nice resum for the government of billionaires for billionaires. 25 years with Rothschilds - sure, a true Man of the People.

" In the eighties, after quickly expanding the reach of Resorts International to Atlantic City, Donald Trump found himself in financial trouble as the real estate market in New York City bottomed-out. His three casinos in Atlantic City were under threat from lenders. It was with the assistance and assurance of Ross, then senior managing director of Rothschild Inc., that Trump was allowed to keep the casinos and rebuild his businesses.[

....never forget a favor, especially one that saves your a$$
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,654
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:38pm Nov 25, 2016 4:38pm
Quoting The Fool
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilbur...ld_Investments Trump picks Wilbur for Commerce. I guess because Methusaleh was busy? Wilbur'll be 79 next Monday. Nice resum for the government of billionaires for billionaires. 25 years with Rothschilds - sure, a true Man of the People. " In the eighties, after quickly expanding the reach of Resorts International to Atlantic City, Donald...
Looking forward to the day when the "outsider" come to clean up Washington joins the ranks of Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy in the mind of the US voter (not holding breath). The tell is the incessant use of the terms "waste, fraud and abuse".
  • #145,655
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:44pm Nov 25, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Looking forward to the day when the "outsider" come to clean up Washington joins the ranks of Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy in the mind of the US voter (not holding breath). The tell is the incessant use of the terms "waste, fraud and abuse".
lol ... "you can't get there from here..."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,656
  • Edited 7:18pm Nov 25, 2016 5:40pm | Edited 7:18pm
We've got a situation here. #pizzagate has got legs and it's going to get messy if it gets wings, and I hope it does.

Happy Holidays
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #145,657
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:11pm Nov 25, 2016 7:11pm
Quoting The Fool
The fairy tale almost too good to be true: DJT disavows the KKK and says he will not waterboard Hillary, believes global warming is no hoax.....just making nice until the election is certified. Meanwhile Hillary has been resting, coming off heavy sedation, and will bomb the media with claims of a rigged election (imagine that!) any day now.... http://theweek.com/speedreads/663679...3-swing-states
Jill Stein officially requests recount in Wisconsin

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=617995
  • #145,658
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:36pm Nov 25, 2016 7:36pm
Quoting mclon
We've got a situation here. #pizzagate has got legs and it's going to get messy if it gets wings, and I hope it does. Happy Holidays
pizza AND wings? that does sound messy....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,659
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:41pm Nov 25, 2016 7:41pm
seriously, though - I guess there will be similar press about MI and PA on Monday. Then there is the process of the recounts - how long can that take, a few days? Maybe not enough in just that to move the markets in any way. After all, the indices were up today and it was well known these recounts were coming.

But, if there's further press next week, something about foreign hackers, something juicy, well maybe that will be something...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,660
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:42pm Nov 25, 2016 7:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}pizza AND wings? that does sound messy....

link in your PM
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
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