Dear FF friends,
I have been studying forex for some years, and I must say that my conclusion is that it is a random business.
Technicals, forget it. Price breaks a BB 50% of the time, retraces 50% of the time. TDI, ADX, RSI, nope...same story. Price goes up 50% of the time when RSI breaks 80 and retraces 50% of the time. Combining them doesn't do the job either.
Price Action....hmmm, not sure, not convinced at all.
Anyways, what moves the forex market 90% of the time is unknown to most of us, small traders.
But what I do know is that medium/major impact economic news has a definite impact. So maybe we can play this instead of guessing and drawing lines on our graphs...?
I started just one week ago (I know, 1w doesn't mean anything), but for the first time I felt in control of my trades, taking calculated risks, and making profit. Small for now, but hey, you gotta start somewhere....
It's a great feeling to finally make some profit, after all I have given back to the market. Will it last, no idea, time will tell....
Basically I trade medium/major news releases on the spike.
Not on retraces.
I look at USD, EU, CAN, NZD, JPY, AUD, GBP news releases that are known to rock the forex market (you know them: FOMC, Jobless claims, Durable goods, Retail sales, etc....)
Each day I look at the time of the news release to be prepared.
10-15 min before the release I look at the currency I want to trade (eg EURUSD for a US news release - only trade majors if possible) to have an idea of the long-term trend and intraday trend.
I place a pending buy and sell order far away from current price with a SL around 10-20 pips (depending on the volatility of the currency pair).
At around 15 seconds before the release I adjust my two pending orders closer to the current price. No too close, not too far.
Usually price is in a tight range the minutes before the release. I put my 2 orders on the H/L of the range.
It is important to set the orders as late as possible and have a tight SL (10-20 pips).
As soon as one gets hit, I keep my finger on the 'close position' as price may immediately reverse.
If it doesn't, I close the other pending order and set a trailing stop on the open one (eg 10 pips per 10 pips).
If it does, I close manually - or my SL is hit, and the other one will probably open.
This is a trading style that suits me. Calculated, no big risks (SL in place) and the possibility of good profits, albeit in a safe way with a tight trailing stop.
Works as a charm so far.
I just wanted to share this with you guys.
Ok, you may try to design an EA based on this, but that takes away all the fun. At least for me.
Kind regards
X.
I have been studying forex for some years, and I must say that my conclusion is that it is a random business.
Technicals, forget it. Price breaks a BB 50% of the time, retraces 50% of the time. TDI, ADX, RSI, nope...same story. Price goes up 50% of the time when RSI breaks 80 and retraces 50% of the time. Combining them doesn't do the job either.
Price Action....hmmm, not sure, not convinced at all.
Anyways, what moves the forex market 90% of the time is unknown to most of us, small traders.
But what I do know is that medium/major impact economic news has a definite impact. So maybe we can play this instead of guessing and drawing lines on our graphs...?
I started just one week ago (I know, 1w doesn't mean anything), but for the first time I felt in control of my trades, taking calculated risks, and making profit. Small for now, but hey, you gotta start somewhere....
It's a great feeling to finally make some profit, after all I have given back to the market. Will it last, no idea, time will tell....
Basically I trade medium/major news releases on the spike.
Not on retraces.
I look at USD, EU, CAN, NZD, JPY, AUD, GBP news releases that are known to rock the forex market (you know them: FOMC, Jobless claims, Durable goods, Retail sales, etc....)
Each day I look at the time of the news release to be prepared.
10-15 min before the release I look at the currency I want to trade (eg EURUSD for a US news release - only trade majors if possible) to have an idea of the long-term trend and intraday trend.
I place a pending buy and sell order far away from current price with a SL around 10-20 pips (depending on the volatility of the currency pair).
At around 15 seconds before the release I adjust my two pending orders closer to the current price. No too close, not too far.
Usually price is in a tight range the minutes before the release. I put my 2 orders on the H/L of the range.
It is important to set the orders as late as possible and have a tight SL (10-20 pips).
As soon as one gets hit, I keep my finger on the 'close position' as price may immediately reverse.
If it doesn't, I close the other pending order and set a trailing stop on the open one (eg 10 pips per 10 pips).
If it does, I close manually - or my SL is hit, and the other one will probably open.
This is a trading style that suits me. Calculated, no big risks (SL in place) and the possibility of good profits, albeit in a safe way with a tight trailing stop.
Works as a charm so far.
I just wanted to share this with you guys.
Ok, you may try to design an EA based on this, but that takes away all the fun. At least for me.
Kind regards
X.
