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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,621
  • Nov 24, 2016 11:26am Nov 24, 2016 11:26am
Quoting chester123
{...Any comment welcomed. Thank you!!!!!!!
Solid post.

Just 2 quick comments.

--> First a imminent break down alert doesn't mean blindly jump in on board (if you are not already in) but look for opps ASAP according to your parameters to jump on board. That's why I call it early imminent break down alerts ...

--> Second, all nice but where the heck is the other side of the equation in the analysis. Where is the Euro* part in all this...remember every pair has 2 sides (which makes things in FX even more complex to analyse) sometimes one side is in the driver seat and the other is just in the back seat, others both are pulling together (hello easy trend rides) and some others they are clashing (hello chop zone).

Don't forget to add the Euro* in the analysis. The end of QE is not a joke for Dec...

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
...without another catalyst (tapering, rate talk, brexit heating up, trump crazy, etc) the lows should not see a momentum break.
What about the actual hikes fact play? ...check the post on Pineapple inc ...

Quote
The notion that they aren't defended?? lol...

First, is not a notion is a fact. Don't get too glamour thinking that because you have magic lines below or 15 years ago somebody was trading Euro below the 1.05xx handle a few hundred candles ago there is actually real money holding (it applies to any instrument) ...Below its just air market wise and you will be dependant on very large hands setting a floor before you even think about finding real money defending any level ...

Second, market flows. I got the feeling you maybe sitting and looking from a bit too far from market action. I mean major flows not in terms of your chart or the Euro but on the actual flows of what is being traded in London, Frankfurt, NY or Chicago ...

Third, 'defended' is an expression to show that below or above there are not really 'any' large, medium of small hands holding positions to neither side therefore levels could be clean very quickly meaning the 180 opposite of chop zone in terms of flows....

sisse

Quoting IMARICH1
... Hope someday our paths cross. You give so much time and info that is so invaluable! ...!
don't worry sisse never leave a conversation open, don't think for a minute I have forgotten you owe me a few beers....

Better go and enjoy Thanksgiving before your GF put you into the doghouse for the rest of the year....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,622
  • Nov 24, 2016 11:31am Nov 24, 2016 11:31am
Caesar. Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue, shriller than all the music,
Cry 'Caesar!' Speak; Caesar is turn'd to hear.
Soothsayer. Beware the ides of March.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-24_0930uvxy.png Size: 75 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,623
  • Nov 24, 2016 11:35am Nov 24, 2016 11:35am
sisse,

Got a second in between dishes! All is Well on the Western Front! Glad you know I still owe you some beers and a conversation is still opened! I am a craft beer man! Love trying all kinds but mainly a porter drinker!

But, this last post gave me an AHA moment and am thankful for this post today......these 2 comments just opened up my eyes to levels and support not necessarily being a support or resistance. Now, i see why the floor can go immediately. Good stuff! I think a section on Where did the Large and Soft Hands Go iteration could be good in tracking a position.

"First, is not a notion is a fact. Don't get too glamour thinking that because you have magic lines below or 15 years ago somebody was trading Euro below the 1.05xx handle a few hundred candles ago there is actually real money holding (it applies to any instrument) ...Below its just air market wise and you will be dependant on very large hands setting a floor before you even think about finding real money defending any level ...

Third, 'defended' is and expression to show that below or above there are not really 'any' large, medium of low hands holding positions to neither side therefore levels could be clean very quickly meaning the 180 opposite of chop zone in terms of flows....

sisse"
  • #145,624
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:03pm Nov 24, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting The Fool
Caesar. Who is it in the press that calls on me? I hear a tongue, shriller than all the music, Cry 'Caesar!' Speak; Caesar is turn'd to hear. Soothsayer. Beware the ides of March. {image}
What will make you kill that butterfly ?

sisse

Quoting IMARICH1
...I am a craft beer man! Love trying all kinds but mainly a porter drinker!.."
Even better...I remember when you could only drink piss poor standard commercial beer in the US. The last few years they are really kicking ass with some serious top of the top craft beer. In all that and knowing the Germans, Czechs, Irish, British and even Japanese will cut my throat, little Belgium is still the best place for craft beer by square mile in the world ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,625
  • Edited 12:31pm Nov 24, 2016 12:12pm | Edited 12:31pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}don't worry sisse never leave a conversation open, don't think for a minute I have forgotten you owe me a few beers.... Better go and enjoy Thanksgiving before your GF put you into the doghouse for the rest of the year.... sisse
I hope our paths dont cross, I cant afford the number of beers I owe you

I fed the girlfriend some wine and started the Turkey, that'll keep her docile for awhile. Party doesnt start for 5 hours

PS, those arent imaginary lines...those are mofu lines I read and see your point in the Pineapple Inc, but the hike isnt game changer success nor is it a secret. To put them in even playing field youd have to say the upgrade coming for Pineapple would be known by the intire world for a year, pushed back for 3 quarters and priced in continually...
  • #145,626
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:13pm Nov 24, 2016 12:13pm
Quoting sisse
What will make you kill that butterfly ?
when volatility is cheap I put on those long-dated wide flys to catch a vol pop. You can wait months between good vol pops, so 10-15c is all I am willing to bet. However, the 10c fly shown could produce a maximum $2.60 return with a perfect finish at expiry - that's a long shot, to say the least, but the fly has >10x returns on elevated vol across a wide range of pricing for UVXY and across a long time frame before expiry.

Anyway, these types of trades are hedging bullish SPX trades generally, and those may have their own 10:1 reward to risk scenarios. If all I am doing is risking a dime to make a dollar, regardless of which direction the market moves, well......

I can only do poorly trading options if the market flatlines for weeks/months at a time.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,627
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:18pm Nov 24, 2016 12:18pm
Quoting The Fool
The trajectroy of Santa's magic sleigh is the same as the trendline of the S&P, at least til the end of the year. Only Grinch Hillary can spoil the fairy tale if she makes a move to deligitimize the election of the King of Debt http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/23/fed-i...isor-says.html http://theakumalian.com/images/2010/...a%20sleigh.jpg {image}
I wonder if Trumps move to not prosicute Hillary has something to do with keeping her off his ass in regards to the election....I suppose it wouldnt take much but a wave of his tiny hands to reverse course and prosicute under the guise that the voting public wanted it to happen (theres already some hubub about him backing down)
  • #145,628
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:35pm Nov 24, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting The Fool
...... I can only do poorly trading options if the market flatlines for weeks/months at a time.
I see. Well I am personally edging toward shifting to cluster fck (narrow chop for months) for Q1/Q2 2017 in US Equities. Things will get a lot clearer for next year after the next few weeks. For now boat in loaded in manic mode. We already had the pop we were discussing last week...expecting the break to hold for the M close before the FED play kicks in...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,629
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:52pm Nov 24, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I wonder if Trumps move to not prosicute Hillary has something to do with keeping her off his ass in regards to the election...
Trumps and Clintons have been friends for years, moving in the money=power circles of NYC, Ivanka & Chelsea been buds for years, etc. - the two daughters married to Jewish money=power NYC men....draw any 2 + 2 = conclusions you like. Much of the crap Trump spewed on the campaign trail was just carnival barking. Trump is not going to revive the eastern US coal industry, which has been in decline for over 40 years, (because natural gas); he's not going to carpet bomb Syria (because Russia); he's not going to round up and deport millions of illegal Mexicans, because it would tank the US economy.....although I guess he might move pretty hard on the latter.....he needs to deliver some red meat somewhere. What the Repub govt can be counted on to do is what it has always done - cut taxes and deficit spend. That should be bullish for US equities so long as Trump does not mis-step re: trade wars.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,630
  • Edited 1:38pm Nov 24, 2016 1:17pm | Edited 1:38pm
Quoting sisse
I see. Well I am personally edging toward shifting to cluster fck (narrow chop for months) for Q1/Q2 2017 in US Equities.
"trading expectations" for US equities now means trading on the expectations for changes in fundamentals that a regime change of this nature can deliver: massive tax cuts, massive deficit spending (National Debt? What's that?) massive deregulation....these are the steroids in the trough so ride the Pig if you dare.

There are lots of wild cards: eurozone disintegration or the rumor thereof; stupid mis-steps by the Trump govt (very likely given he's a dope and is stacking his Cabinet with fellow senile dopes - starting Trade wars has to be a primary concern), and so on.

I guess "trading expectations" holds well in the time before Trump actually takes office and maybe some time thereafter, until reality sets in....anyway, as I have been saying, I expect new levels in the S&P in December, with trade targets @ 2,300 working. I am always in trades that exist only to protect me if my directional bias is wrong. I started shorting bonds since October, was setting up long US stocks before the election (because I thought Hillary would win - but, woohoo, it didn't matter, stocks just want to go up)...right, stocks just want to go up, proven by identical results @ Brexit vote and US elections.....that is true until proven false, and it will take the onset of a US recession or some influence from overseas to supply that proof.

If I knew US equities were going to flatline a la the flatline runs of the last couple years, I would just raise cash and do other things.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,631
  • Nov 24, 2016 2:15pm Nov 24, 2016 2:15pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I wonder if Trumps move to not prosicute Hillary has something to do with keeping her off his ass in regards to the election....I suppose it wouldnt take much but a wave of his tiny hands to reverse course and prosicute under the guise that the voting public wanted it to happen (theres already some hubub about him backing down)
Trump's "deciding" not to prosecute HRC is like me "deciding" not to ride a unicorn to work this morning.
  • #145,632
  • Nov 24, 2016 2:55pm Nov 24, 2016 2:55pm
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/s...143623977.html

these bulls saying double digit stock returns for 2017 but target 2,300? ...no they're not math-challenged, just conservative.....2,210 + 0.1(2,210) = 2,420
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,633
  • Nov 24, 2016 3:24pm Nov 24, 2016 3:24pm
http://theweek.com/articles/663488/d...ump-presidency

Keeping things interesting, snowball hell, but you pays your money and you takes your chance, the EC convenes 12/19.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,634
  • Nov 24, 2016 4:03pm Nov 24, 2016 4:03pm
Quoting thewriter30
Hi I cannot see my post so here it goes again. I thank Sisse first for encouraging me to post. I am not a rookie per se, but I did trade like one since I use emotions and gambling. Lost a fortune, and this is my third come back. Afraid yes, and reading more and more and re learning. This forum seems pretty advanced and I understand 50% at times. However I saw newbie stuf which probably gives us an op to post So, based on some charts published 20 pages (ish) from here I saw candle info which although basic seem very powerful (image attached) The...
hi...anyone
  • #145,635
  • Nov 24, 2016 5:18pm Nov 24, 2016 5:18pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} hi...anyone
hello writer, in the chart you posted the bears have rejected the bulls. my suggestion would be to continue like you have been, and read the last two months worth of info....a lot of ground to cover.

You may also want to focus on EU, as we havent really moved past the euro gbp and jpy in this thread. It will keep you more focused on the trading discussion herein
  • #145,636
  • Nov 24, 2016 6:45pm Nov 24, 2016 6:45pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} hello writer, in the chart you posted the bears have rejected the bulls. my suggestion would be to continue like you have been, and read the last two months worth of info....a lot of ground to cover. You may also want to focus on EU, as we havent really moved past the euro gbp and jpy in this thread. It will keep you more focused on the trading discussion herein
Thanks mate. Yes thought so. I guess it is sort of consolidating now..maybe going to push up again. Yes I am reading everyday a bit...4855 pages
I got to say I dont understand much. Particularly the jargon used and the fundamental analysis. You guys are sure of what you say...but so are those morons analyst who always get it all wrong... so can we get proper fundamentals
  • #145,637
  • Nov 25, 2016 2:20am Nov 25, 2016 2:20am
Quoting sisse
{quote} What will make you kill that butterfly ? sisse {quote} Even better...I remember when you could only drink piss poor standard commercial beer in the US. The last few years they are really kicking ass with some serious top of the top craft beer. In all that and knowing the Germans, Czechs, Irish, British and even Japanese will cut my throat, little Belgium is still the best place for craft beer by square mile in the world .... sisse
damn man, there must be a field you don't master ...

i'm always been a trappist fan, if i have a chance count me for a couple of rounds at my expenses for all you guys

Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Thanks mate. Yes thought so. I guess it is sort of consolidating now..maybe going to push up again. Yes I am reading everyday a bit...4855 pages I got to say I dont understand much. Particularly the jargon used and the fundamental analysis. You guys are sure of what you say...but so are those morons analyst who always get it all wrong... so can we get proper fundamentals
Hi Writer, at first it takes a bit to take a grasp on the thread and even a little more to translate what you take from the tread in new trading thinking but the guys here makes an excellent work in mixing very basic and more advanced stuff with a not so obscure language ... definitely worth if i can give you my two cents
  • #145,638
  • Edited 5:15am Nov 25, 2016 4:48am | Edited 5:15am
TPP and NZD and AUD

I understand that the withdrawing of the TPP will be a bad thing for the NZD. For AUD I am not so sure since they claim that the freetrade deal they have will cover some. But it is not positive. For NZD it is more critical.


Was doing some reading. Here is some main articles.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...PP-and-we-wait

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...-us-leaves-tpp

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...de-cx#cxrecs_s
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,639
  • Nov 25, 2016 6:55am Nov 25, 2016 6:55am
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} hi...anyone
Some of the guys around the thread have spend thousand of thousand of hours researching, reading and commenting and we are all particularly unfriendly with spammers and newcomers without a 'social proof' in FF .... self-preservation rather than fairness ....

If you want to get some feedback and jump in the discussion excellent but you need to understand that if you just want a quick simple answer for a particular trade you are in, you will mostly hear crickets because we don't know what you are talking about. Are you asking for help? ideas? are you looking to share your view? ...the chart you post didn't get better replies because you are asking very specific technicalities of a trigger? without any context.


--> To your question a quick couple of points:

Quote
The inner circle is what I care to see if I got it. The first 3 candles, 1 red, 2 greens seemed to indicate that the bears were still holding the bulls back. Now the 4th canlde inside the inner circle , the red one...how to read that?
Does it mean that the bulls won in that the broke (with a wick) the last high of the first candle in the inner circle? or it means they failed and bears are still in play?

  1. I am afraid you will have to dig deep in the backpost because you are way out scope. If you want some hints on how to start looking at trading from a different angle. Start from the very basic post on Trading, Directions, Risk and Timing.
  2. Once you pass that, explore the basic concept of long/mid and short term. Try to start making some maps etc, only then try to incorporate your technicalities on how to actual pull the trigger.
  3. If you want to go even deeper check some of the basic principles of price analysis series of posts it may trigger a hint or two to see price from a different angle
  4. You wont find a recipe book with measured ingredients, you will need to just grasp some macro concepts to make analysis consistent, repeatable and sustainable in time thats it. You either will have your AHA moment somewhere or you simply won't.
  5. You are posting a AUD chart which is sadly the worst timezone for trading in the whole world. The problem is that currency markets are 90% move by Europe and the US. When the movers and shakers are happening in AUD 90% of us and large trading markets are sleeping.
  6. We don't track in detail those instruments because first AUD* is tiny and second we are far far far away in time and knowledge from the actual things that affect AUD or NZD.
  7. Does it mean you need to drop them? not really if that is your timezone come on jump in and open a detailed discussion on it. I am sure lots of Asian traders and at v. specific times and circumstances lots of us will jump in too. However, you are missing the key ingredient here and without that you will struggle to make sense beyond blindly TA trading. What are the main macro factors currently in AUD?.
  8. Feel free to explore and jump in and to all others that know better AUD feel free to start building some kind of general expectation map ...

Hint: AUD* is not an easy currency to analyse. Is very tiny market wise and you need to dig deep in Commodities and Asian Equities. That should be your entry door.....

Daunting task? isn't it? Let me be 100% honest with you. IT WONT BE EASY and is going to be V HARD and require A LOT of effort and frustration so if you want a quick fix that will make you master an exotic cross while you make tons of money in between you are for a BIG disappointment and better look somewhere else ...otherwise I am sure most of the posters around this thread will be happy to chat, share, help or disagree in a constructive way ...

GL

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,640
  • Nov 25, 2016 7:21am Nov 25, 2016 7:21am
Quoting Earleone
TPP and NZD and AUD I understand that the withdrawing of the TPP will be a bad thing for the NZD. For AUD I am not so sure since they claim that the freetrade deal they have will cover some. But it is not positive. For NZD it is more critical. Was doing some reading. Here is some main articles. http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...PP-and-we-wait http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...-us-leaves-tpp http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2...de-cx#cxrecs_s...
Protectionism and less free trade is ALWAYS BAD FOR ALL sides involved. Thats a fact. Short term the smaller side gets the worst part but in the mid and long term the large side get geometrical worst off.

There is no one single case in world history that a Country, State, Kingdom or Feud of any size has ended up better off, richer and safer with inward looking policies and protectionism.

Sure some myopic views may lead some to believe that there are gains but those are always 'pyrrhic victories' (wiki here). Moreover, from a historic perspective uncontrolled protectionism, less free trade and cooperation mixed with populist is a recipe for nationalism and the vicious circle of rotting economic and social structures that sadly if not stop soon ends, it always end up in war...

TPP is bad news for Asia and the US. The only winner and by a mile or two is China.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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