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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,581
  • Nov 23, 2016 11:26am Nov 23, 2016 11:26am
the bots read the minutes and nothing happened, index volume will be < 1/2 of recent average today, less than that on Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Pilgrims.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,582
  • Nov 23, 2016 11:28am Nov 23, 2016 11:28am
Inline. Nothing to see. Dec Fed expectations closed.

Happy Thanksgiving to all across the Atlantic....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,583
  • Nov 23, 2016 12:29pm Nov 23, 2016 12:29pm
Happy thanksgiving to all who celebrate it! Bird in the brine, Rhubarb in the oven. Duck stock simmering. Stone Claws fresh from the trap. Kids underfoot. Soon will be time to break the wax on the Beemster and the Remy respectively. Smells like that time of year again.
  • #145,584
  • Nov 23, 2016 1:35pm Nov 23, 2016 1:35pm
Hi
I cannot see my post so here it goes again. I thank Sisse first for encouraging me to post. I am not a rookie per se, but I did trade like one since I use emotions and gambling. Lost a fortune, and this is my third come back. Afraid yes, and reading more and more and re learning.
This forum seems pretty advanced and I understand 50% at times. However I saw newbie stuf which probably gives us an op to post

So, based on some charts published 20 pages (ish) from here I saw candle info which although basic seem very powerful (image attached)

The outer circle is the rollercoaster to the downside of the AUD/USD (Daily)
Now, there seems to be a pullback.

The inner circle is what I care to see if I got it. The first 3 candles, 1 red, 2 greens seemed to indicate that the bears were still holding the bulls back. Now the 4th canlde inside the inner circle , the red one...how to read that?
Does it mean that the bulls won in that the broke (with a wick) the last high of the first candle in the inner circle? or it means they failed and bears are still in play?



Thanks
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  • #145,585
  • Nov 23, 2016 1:37pm Nov 23, 2016 1:37pm
Quoting goosebone
Happy thanksgiving to all who celebrate it! Bird in the brine, Rhubarb in the oven. Duck stock simmering. Stone Claws fresh from the trap. Kids underfoot. Soon will be time to break the wax on the Beemster and the Remy respectively. Smells like that time of year again.
Boy that sounds good, goose - have a great Thanksgiving!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,586
  • Nov 23, 2016 2:06pm Nov 23, 2016 2:06pm
For those who have asked/and some a bit confused on whats going on TA wise in the Euro for today we have Thanksgiving nugget for discussion over the weekend with the close today.

***Advanced TA warning so feel free to ignore the TA flow part if you are not interested in digging deeper in this as it wont change much of what we have already discussed before.

First, here is the usual wrap up for the roll. I will and for the sake of the argument, put a 'riddle' for discussion to try addressing those questions and highlight one more time Timing and Risk as key and only factors for decision marking.

3 statements for today close and i let the concepts floating around. Hopefully it will trigger some more AHA moments for some or like always a few fck off sisse mumbojumbo....

--> Only update after the Minutes:

Changing short term outlook in Euro from Neutral to Sell

--> We are rolling with Euro on extremely bearish close in imminent break down alerts triggered for the final part of the mid term swing.

--> We have set the low of the Week and it's time to start clearing those still holding longs.

Why? all seem contradictory? BS? oh I get it? ...no no really I am lost? .... Feel free to think about it (for those who asked) or jump in with opinions, questions or counter views....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,587
  • Nov 23, 2016 2:15pm Nov 23, 2016 2:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Boy that sounds good, goose - have a great Thanksgiving!
You too man. Thanks
  • #145,588
  • Nov 23, 2016 2:30pm Nov 23, 2016 2:30pm
Quoting sisse
For those who............
We are rolling with Euro on extremely bearish close in imminent break down alerts triggered for the final part of the mid term swing. --> We have set the low of the Week and it's time to start clearing those still holding longs. Why? all seem contradictory? BS? oh I get it? ...no no really I am lost? .... Feel free to think about it (for those who asked) or jump in with opinions, questions or counter views.... sisse
Does it count as weekly close when US close for holiday while Europe still has 2 trading days? I think that is what the bearish close is based on. We then have a close inside the support zone witch is bearish ( I learned 1 1/2 week ago )
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,589
  • Nov 23, 2016 3:37pm Nov 23, 2016 3:37pm
^ Not clearing longs

would like to add @ 1.0470
  • #145,590
  • Nov 23, 2016 6:07pm Nov 23, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting Earleone
I think that is what the bearish close is based on. We then have a close inside the support zone witch is bearish ( I learned 1 1/2 week ago )
I agree. 1.0580 was a great place to go long but the fact it has broken and closed below it means longs are too risky here (for me). Already closed mine for a small profit.
You reap what you sow.
  • #145,591
  • Nov 23, 2016 7:31pm Nov 23, 2016 7:31pm
The fairy tale almost too good to be true: DJT disavows the KKK and says he will not waterboard Hillary, believes global warming is no hoax.....just making nice until the election is certified. Meanwhile Hillary has been resting, coming off heavy sedation, and will bomb the media with claims of a rigged election (imagine that!) any day now....

http://theweek.com/speedreads/663679...3-swing-states
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,592
  • Nov 23, 2016 9:13pm Nov 23, 2016 9:13pm
E/u - took a long near 1.053x target 1.064x - 1.07xx s/l - 1.046x
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,593
  • Nov 23, 2016 10:56pm Nov 23, 2016 10:56pm
Bailed on the long eu for -40 and a long gu +90 for a net yawn. Not sure if eu will break down and out through this range on this attempt but either way my entry at 0585 turned out to be early and it doesn't hurt too much to cut it now and see what plays out. Sisse was right in my case. The trade was based on trigger spotting, not much more and that's not the road to consistency.
  • #145,594
  • Nov 23, 2016 11:33pm Nov 23, 2016 11:33pm
Quoting sisse
For those who have asked/and some a bit confused on whats going on TA wise in the Euro for today we have Thanksgiving nugget for discussion over the weekend with the close today. ***Advanced TA warning so feel free to ignore the TA flow part if you are not interested in digging deeper in this as it wont change much of what we have already discussed before. First, here is the usual wrap up for the roll. I will and for the sake of the argument, put a 'riddle' for discussion to try addressing those questions and highlight one more time Timing and Risk...
But.... why would you change the short term outlook when FOMC was completely inline? Changeing it just due to the bearish close? Do not think so as its based on FA not TA. So I do not know.

And if its imminent break down alerts why do you think the low of the week is set? Is it imminent only on mid term timeframe? Because If the week low is set and we get small retrace - the W1 is gonna be hammer invalidating the imminent break down alerts?

P.S.: just to show my vizualization of the mid term. We are well into the leg. Im flat short term (the leg was done) and mid term (some mismanagement on my side) - so just trying to figure out how to trade this situation of potentional double short term leg with imminent break down alerts on mid term - clean sweep on weekly.
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  • #145,595
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:10am Nov 24, 2016 12:10am
Look like no ECB taper talk until March
  • #145,596
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:33am Nov 24, 2016 12:33am
Quoting goosebone
.... right in my case. The trade was based on trigger spotting, not much more and that's not the road to consistency.
...indeed and still some still refuse to understand the point....those are exactly the ones how get stuck holding turds on momentum breaks and even worst on a mid term one....

Quoting chester123
{quote} But.... why would you change the short term outlook when FOMC was completely inline? Changeing it just due to the bearish close? Do not think so as its based on FA not TA. So I do not know.
TIME. We got one step closer to the 'fact'.

The clean of soft lows TA wise also send a strong signal and left no room (risk wise) for interpretation [floor-less buying at this area is playing Russian roulette]. I was expecting to hold neutral till next week NFP as only real report left but macro bids were raised before the European close ...

Quote
And if its imminent break down alerts why do you think the low of the week is set? Is it imminent only on mid term timeframe?

Yes we are crossing the 'red area' for the momentum play in the mid term (those expensive tickets in the never ending sketch). No break no shake environment but with imminent alerts already trigger. A good combo will unlock 1.019x by even this years end and TA the ext 0.98xx for later. A soft combo will just delayed for Q1/Q2. A major game changer, well will discuss if that happens later...

Quote
P.S.: just to show my vizualization of the mid term. We are well into the leg. Im flat short term (the leg was done) and mid term (some mismanagement on my side) -...

Its more or less of what we discussed in US Equities the other day. Short term was not aligned with mid term The main issue is that a lot around are ignoring mapping the direction (mid term sell, trading for a chance of a major momentum break [red area]) and only focusing in the short term map which is screaming oversold and in good buying value area.

In simple words, your intermediate stop target line is the bottom range of the mid term map [momentum] ....I am 100% sure you now see what is in play for the next swing on in both US Equities and Euro.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,597
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:50am Nov 24, 2016 12:50am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ..A good combo will unlock 1.019x by even this years end and TA the ext 0.98xx for later. A soft combo will just delayed for Q1/Q2. ....I am 100% sure you now see what is in play for the next swing on in both US Equities and Euro. sisse
So 100% call that at least by Q2 we'll see 1.019x-0.98xx?

Mid-term map is a range of which you haven't changed your outlook yet? This happened last time we were in the 1.05 handle as I recall

With hikes priced in and later confirmed I'd argue midterm = neutral after last target cleared, at least until March
  • #145,598
  • Nov 24, 2016 1:14am Nov 24, 2016 1:14am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...indeed and still some still refuse to understand the point....those are exactly the ones how get stuck holding turds on momentum breaks and even worst on a mid term one.... {quote} TIME. We got one step closer to the 'fact'. The clean of soft lows TA wise also send a strong signal and left no room (risk wise) for interpretation [floor-less buying at this area is playing Russian roulette]. I was expecting to hold neutral till next week NFP as only real report left but macro bids were raised before the European close ... {quote} Yes...
Absolutely, mid term gives you absolutely different perspective than short term term right now. Those being too close may get burnt on the clean sweep/double short term with losing the floor for direct continuation.

I have a question of strategy: do you trade momentum breaks/expensive red tickets? Do you preposition already with imminent alerts or only after the break is confirmed with W close (here W as its mid term) - as no break no shake says? Im aksing becuase I always get burnt in these cases!! Always. I do not understand if its possible succesfully to shoot the gun in these situations with tighter stop loss as you dont wanna be caught in the short term extreme if the break fails.
  • #145,599
  • Nov 24, 2016 1:19am Nov 24, 2016 1:19am
Quoting sisse
{quote} .....clearing main Gold target with the test 1216.xx ...simple part of the ride over too in Gold.
-> 1419.xx (Steel R) ----> 1315.xx (Strong R)[check] ----> 1245.xx (FLIP)[check] ----> 1216.xx [check] (Support) ----> 1170.xx (Very Strong S)
We failed by a handful of points to clear final target in Gold on the opening so 'don't be a dick for a tick' rules apply.

Clearing manually final target in GOLD a handful of point before final target. Dominos on the FX and commodity board completed right on time before the ECB/FED combo. Now all eyes on Equities as there are the next in line for next few weeks....

-> 1419.xx (Steel R) ----> 1315.xx (Strong R)[check] ----> 1245.xx (FLIP)[check] ---->1216.xx [check] (Support)----> 1170.xx [check closed 118x](Very Strong S)

On the Euro, that was pretty much it with inline numbers from Germany. 1.061x only level to track for the M close. ...

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} So 100% call that at least by Q2 we'll see 1.019x-0.98xx? Mid-term map is a range of which you haven't changed your outlook yet? This happened last time we were in the 1.05 handle as I recall With hikes priced in and later confirmed I'd argue midterm = neutral after last target cleared, at least until March
We are in sell mid term since few minutes after the Brexit vote was clear and unavoidable [check back post for live context and more details] ...

Yes last time was back in Nov / Dec 2015 +/- same timing. Difference is US economy is a lot stronger but EZ economy is also clear of the Debt/Greek drama and forming a solid bottom. Trump unlocked inflation for sharper hikes outlooks while EZ is on the verge of starting the end of QE. Risk is still lean toward Europe via Brexit ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,600
  • Nov 24, 2016 1:47am Nov 24, 2016 1:47am
Quoting chester123
I have a question of strategy: do you trade momentum breaks/expensive red tickets?...
Of course is a mid term leg!!!!. On that break is where the money is whether you rode it from the top or from the break...

Remember at this area a proper r:r entries are a lot harder to find given risk. You have to have flawless control of the timing of what markets are tracking as final outcome. All entries are rather expensive at this area because you have +/- 300 ticks gap to the natural stops making stop management vey complicate if you don't know exactly what you are doing.

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--> Also don't forget this a mid term swing direction. You should expect no less than 2 short term swings in between to complete a mid term leg like this if confirmed. Because its also aligning to be the final mid term leg [yet TBC] a momentum break will be fast, very very sharp and short-lived.

--> For now no break no shake. Try to focus and map your timing factors in play till years end first. Be extremely cautious on not jumping the gun with a breach down on smaller Tfs as it could be extremely tempting to chase it ignoring risk on stops. If you want to outsmart the break avoid at all cost entering during uneventful sessions despite how tempting they look...

--> Finally try to map your potential entries right now on with plenty of time so you don't chase or have to calculate risk on the fly. Map your entries for the break with stops and point of failure.

--> Equally important also map the opposite side where longs could be jumping in. First because they will be the ones caught on a break down and will add momentum, second because you will 'know' where NOT to even try to enter short and finally if you are wrong and already in you will know where to close without hesitation for a loss but not to get stuck on a flop.

I hope it helps ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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