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AUD/USD

  • #99,781
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:34pm Nov 21, 2016 9:34pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Amazing, I got this right to the pip and yet i did not trade it...
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Yes that is a good analysis
It works like magic doesn't it and no need for complexity. Thats all you have to do.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,782
  • Nov 22, 2016 1:49am Nov 22, 2016 1:49am
Quoting ell3
{quote} that happens to me 90% of the time. If I pulled every trade I identified, I'd be a millionaire by now! But fact is, fear is a very real thing for us human beings so I'm not beating myself up for succumbing to fear. Better safe than sorry, grow the account slow and steady
Aww love your post and so true... I have made more money by growing nice and slowly.
I have also have put in a maxium of opens i can have at one time.

Forex like any other business takes time.
  • #99,783
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:01am Nov 22, 2016 8:01am
Quoting Jfrancis
But before that AU will go into a consolidation soon giving another opportunity to short it down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is how the market moves in waves.
Aussie is just in a consolidation. Look for sell setups only. Its never good to trade within a consolidation, especially against the immediate trade. Also, my drawing doesn't represent the exact way it will form, I'm not that good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #99,784
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:01am Nov 22, 2016 9:01am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} Aussie is just in a consolidation. Look for sell setups only. Its never good to trade within a consolidation, especially against the immediate trade. Also, my drawing doesn't represent the exact way it will form, I'm not that good. {image} {image}
thanks for your input

Anybody else would want to show their predictions?

Also do you guys use leverage other than 500:1 to avoid expensive swap prices and to get to inclined in over leveraging?
  • #99,785
  • Nov 22, 2016 10:38am Nov 22, 2016 10:38am
take a look at my charts -

Daily:
- rejected off the ascending trend line connecting the aug/sept '15 low
- this treats the break below the trend line in Dec-Jan '16 as a false break, following the FOMC raising rates in Dec '15

Hourly:
- pair has moved out of the descending trend channel and has been rejected (bounced) off the upper line earlier today
- pair has been probing the 100 hour MA

the "fundamentals" surrounding the USD and AUD earlier this year are quite similar now, with the AUD's economic numbers showing a bit more health; plus the RBA has hinted it may not cut rates again so easily. The long-term effect the Trump presidency will have on the USD is quite frankly, still an unknown so i wouldn't place too much of a long-term bias towards USD appreciation.

with that in mind, having noted a reasonable rejection off the daily trend line both now and previously in May 2016, plus break out of the recent descending trend channel, I feel that the pair may break above the 100hour MA. if it does, looking at 7420 & 7446 as the first targets. given the tendency for the USD to be bought in a hurry these few weeks, i'm more inclined to want to sell from those levels, although remaining wary that the pair may well be heading back upwards. (at the same time, note that the USD is facing strong resistance at the level it's at now...it has tried breaking it a few times but failed and looks to be weakening...that may prompt some USD longs to take profit...and a retreating USD could well see a short squeeze in the AUD)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #99,786
  • Nov 22, 2016 4:16pm Nov 22, 2016 4:16pm
Quoting ell3
take a look at my charts - Daily: - rejected off the ascending trend line connecting the aug/sept '15 low - this treats the break below the trend line in Dec-Jan '16 as a false break, following the FOMC raising rates in Dec '15 Hourly: - pair has moved out of the descending trend channel and has been rejected (bounced) off the upper line earlier today - pair has been probing the 100 hour MA the "fundamentals" surrounding the USD and AUD earlier this year are quite similar now, with the AUD's economic numbers showing a bit more health; plus the RBA...
 
Interesting. back up again hmmmm. it does have space to go up. however the main sentiment I believe is down. as the market moves in waves or so they day it may well pull back past 75 and then continue down right? 
 
 
  • #99,787
  • Nov 22, 2016 5:33pm Nov 22, 2016 5:33pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote}  Interesting. back up again hmmmm. it does have space to go up. however the main sentiment I believe is down. as the market moves in waves or so they day it may well pull back past 75 and then continue down right?  Â
Wait for a corrective structure(bear flag) to sell again. Don't try to buy it while it's correcting unless it's short term and you know what you're doing.
  • #99,788
  • Nov 22, 2016 5:38pm Nov 22, 2016 5:38pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} thanks for your input Anybody else would want to show their predictions? Also do you guys use leverage other than 500:1 to avoid expensive swap prices and to get to inclined in over leveraging?
I try to avoid using any kind of leverage. Pro traders don't use it but have very large account sizes. I try to keep my leverage under 5:1

In an event such as an unexpected price moment of 1000 pips. (which does happen) a 10:1 leverage will wipe out your account. Even using a SL in some cases price will jump your stop and also clean out your account.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,789
  • Nov 22, 2016 6:42pm Nov 22, 2016 6:42pm
Quoting ell3
with the AUD's economic numbers showing a bit more health; plus the RBA has hinted it may not cut rates again so easily.
Health? No.. stable yes, and only because of the 100% rise in commodities this year, which may be coming to an end. Inflation is at an all time low, employment is stable - but with dropping participation and many movements to part time this is a little shady.

It's all smoke and mirrors. I'd need to see two better than expected quarters for inflation and employment before I start raising any kind of praise on the AU economy. I think the talk of rate stabilisation is just talk, if inflation flopped they would cut again or maybe they just need fruit to suddenly go up in price again at a very convenient time.
  • #99,790
  • Nov 22, 2016 7:08pm Nov 22, 2016 7:08pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I try to avoid using any kind of leverage. Pro traders don't use it but have very large account sizes. I try to keep my leverage under 5:1 In an event such as an unexpected price moment of 1000 pips. (which does happen) a 10:1 leverage will wipe out your account. Even using a SL in some cases price will jump your stop and also clean out your account.
Thanks redalert

Paul what is your análisis¿

very re interesting about leveraging. I did blow out my account in 2013
  • #99,791
  • Nov 22, 2016 7:39pm Nov 22, 2016 7:39pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Thanks redalert Paul what is your anlisis very re interesting about leveraging. I did blow out my account in 2013
My view is same as red alert

Using 1:1 leverage. 1 standard lot per $100,000. So a leverage of 1:1 on $1000 is lot size of .01. If price move suddenly of 1000 pips it will equal around $100 or 10% of your account balance. If you are trading right and getting 70 to 80% of your trades right you will make money but of course slowly.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,792
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:02pm Nov 22, 2016 8:02pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} Health? No.. stable yes, and only because of the 100% rise in commodities this year, which may be coming to an end. Inflation is at an all time low, employment is stable - but with dropping participation and many movements to part time this is a little shady. It's all smoke and mirrors. I'd need to see two better than expected quarters for inflation and employment before I start raising any kind of praise on the AU economy. I think the talk of rate stabilisation is just talk, if inflation flopped they would cut again or maybe they just need...
yes, truth in that. my view on the pair is for the immediate term anyway. like, for the week ahead. i trade on that kind of time frame.
about the australian economy, yes it looks a little shaky. but i've always felt that it's the present numbers that drive the AU, not so much the long term outlook. a lot of market interest is in yields these days, so as long as the yield is still higher investors are going to hold onto aussie assets; they're not going to bother guessing where the economy is going. it's when a rate cut, or a major threat of a rate cut is issued then a sell off seems to occur (and in that case the RBA hasn't been particularly dovish at all).
  • #99,793
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:07pm Nov 22, 2016 8:07pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} My view is same as red alert Using 1:1 leverage. 1 standard lot per $100,000. So a leverage of 1:1 on $1000 is lot size of .01. If price move suddenly of 1000 pips it will equal around $100 or 10% of your account balance. If you are trading right and getting 70 to 80% of your trades right you will make money but of course slowly.
hmm, on a number of pips basis, how many pips on the A/U pair does that translate to to gain a 10% growth on your account?
i used to do 1:1 also, then i got impatient and did 1:50 for two months..it worked out, fortunately. now i'm at sticking with around 1:5 which feels safe. i think those flash crashes are something that all we traders are afraid of.
  • #99,794
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:15pm Nov 22, 2016 8:15pm
Quoting arash66110
it should at least come back to .75 but the trend line is really scaring. in the daily chart there is room to 73 before 75 but from weekly chart I see strong support and it may start upward move to 75-76 right now.so confusing!!! 75 is important .most bank forecast for end of year is 75. any idea for long?
in my view it will break .75 in the next two week. I do not think it falls as many predict.it's end year forecast is about .75 if rate goes up in us otherwise it will go up much higher take care.
  • #99,795
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:42pm Nov 22, 2016 9:42pm
Quoting arash66110
{quote} in my view it will break .75 in the next two week. I do not think it falls as many predict.it's end year forecast is about .75 if rate goes up in us otherwise it will go up much higher take care.
Show your charts then dude
  • #99,796
  • Nov 22, 2016 10:03pm Nov 22, 2016 10:03pm
Quoting arash66110
{quote} in my view it will break .75 in the next two week. I do not think it falls as many predict.it's end year forecast is about .75 if rate goes up in us otherwise it will go up much higher take care.
A piece of advice..do not depend on what the banks say....I remember back in early 2015 the banks forecast on the AUD was to be around the 80c by end of year, in which the actual figure was 68c-70c.

These analysts are a bunch of parrots that repeat what others say, so i wont dpeend on their view much..
  • #99,797
  • Nov 22, 2016 10:13pm Nov 22, 2016 10:13pm
Interesting analysis in this thread. I would class myself as a professional trader, since my main income comes from trading. It took me 2 years to be consistently profitable and get my psychology correct ( hardest part by far ). Believe it or not the system or methodology you use is trivial. You are best picking a system your a comfortable with and practicing for hundreds of trades demo and Live until you achieve a high rate of success. Here are some common mistakes I eliminated and made me part of the 5% successful traders in the world.
http://www.slideshare.net/ForexTrain...-to-avoid-them
  • #99,798
  • Nov 22, 2016 11:03pm Nov 22, 2016 11:03pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
Interesting analysis in this thread. I would class myself as a professional trader, since my main income comes from trading. It took me 2 years to be consistently profitable and get my psychology correct ( hardest part by far ). Believe it or not the system or methodology you use is trivial. You are best picking a system your a comfortable with and practicing for hundreds of trades demo and Live until you achieve a high rate of success. Here are some common mistakes I eliminated and made me part of the 5% successful traders in the world. http://www.slideshare.net/ForexTrain...-to-avoid-them...
It took me 12 years to be consistently profitable and then when I finally understood how it works, I got bored. It's not interesting anymore... and so I quit. I feel a lot better now, since I'm not doing it anymore. That's the beauty of it all, you can quit anytime without a problem. I still watch you guys, but I'm free from this illness. I thought it would be hard to quit, but no, no problem, you just stop. It's like quitting smoking.
  • #99,799
  • Nov 22, 2016 11:07pm Nov 22, 2016 11:07pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} It took me 12 years to be consistently profitable and then when I finally understood how it works, I got bored. It's not interesting anymore... and so I quit. I feel a lot better now, since I'm not doing it anymore. That's the beauty of it all, you can quit anytime without a problem. I still watch you guys, but I'm free from this illness. I thought it would be hard to quit, but no, no problem, you just stop. It's like quitting smoking.
You got bored off making money?
  • #99,800
  • Nov 22, 2016 11:16pm Nov 22, 2016 11:16pm
It took me 12 years to be consistently profitable and then when I finally understood how it works, I got bored. It's not interesting anymore... and so I quit. I feel a lot better now, since I'm not doing it anymore. That's the beauty of it all, you can quit anytime without a problem. I still watch you guys, but I'm free from this illness. I thought it would be hard to quit, but no, no problem, you just stop. It's like quitting smoking.

thanks for your honesty. Like I mentioned 95% don't make it. It is best to quit early if you are trying for a long time without success. Trading is probably not for you and you should not be ashamed. This is one of the hardest trades I have ever attempted. If you are not fully committed its like gambling and your best not do it all.
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