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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #21,701
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:38am Nov 22, 2016 8:38am
Quoting Harmonic1976
{quote} See attached notes, during the actual trade (not in hindsight) it seemed like the bulls were taking control. Entry was based on my previous posts from bottom of last bullish candle before impulse, it hit that mark and reversed but then quickly pulled back after 1/2 way to target. I was torn and thought about staying in the trade but I didn't know what to do because price shouldn't have gone higher than my entry with a move down like that?? {image}
The market was very choppy around that area and corrections were deep. We have to be patient sometimes and let the market breathe. I sometimes have to let price go against me at times when it's a complicated area. Not every trade does what it is suppose to at first.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,702
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:44am Nov 22, 2016 8:44am
Quoting Harmonic1976
Just saw a trading opportunity for USDJPY, looks like aggressive C, took the trade due to rotation and rejection at .618 fib Aiming for 1:1 move for AB=CD edit: Trade is a fail, looking for graceful exit {image}
Look at the aggression the buyers were showing. We buy or sell on weakness not strength. Shake it off. Not every setup is worth taking. You must consider it within the context of the order flow.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,703
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:49am Nov 22, 2016 8:49am
Quoting Tman72
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/6154511/eurusd-m15-oanda-division1 The magenta line was a short entry and it went up instead
Not completely sure which of the two swings you took short. But either one was completely wrong the first area price had made a NSH. This is the market speaking to you telling you I want to go up. It was also a very retail entry. The second was even worse as the entry was at support and beyond retail. I'm not sure What your though process was here. Next time help us help you better show us exactly there you entered and all of the other elements like stop and profit target.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,704
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:51am Nov 22, 2016 8:51am
Quoting Harmonic1976
{quote} On the short term orderflow, it was a new structure low, but "selling" at the new structure low, especially if it's not the first one, is selling at retail and your risk would need to go above the recent high. Selling at the first NSL (immediate break of higher lows) can be interesting but even then there is usually a pullback before price continues downward. Since the new structure low is the worst possible place to go short really (risk reward wise), it's better to wait for a pullback of at least 50% retracement to give you a favorable...
Nice! Well done!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,705
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:55am Nov 22, 2016 8:55am
Quoting stavrogijn
{quote} Great write-up. I was thinking about the short you took, but could not figure out the imbalance in this area, so I passed because my bias was bullish anyway. This adressed my thoughts and worries nicely. Perfect trade management by you, taking almost the whole swing. Gratz, wow!
Thanks I will be covering accumulation, distribution and imbalance in a video but I'm still trying to figure out a clear and simple way to present it as many from new to experienced traders will be looking at it. I've got a pretty good idea though and it will be coming real soon possibly by the end of the week.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,706
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:02am Nov 22, 2016 9:02am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Not completely sure which of the two swings you took short. But either one was completely wrong the first area price had made a NSH. This is the market speaking to you telling you I want to go up. It was also a very retail entry. The second was even worse as the entry was at support and beyond retail. I'm not sure What your though process was here. Next time help us help you better show us exactly there you entered and all of the other elements like stop and profit target.
I took the magenta one short and the other was my stop. When I entered it looked like it was going to make a NSL. it went against me because I didn't contrast the support area price action with a bad decision to sell. I only target between 15 and 20 pips, and always move my stop loss to break even plus 1 when I get to 5 pips in the green. If it goes up more to plus 10 then I move my stop to plus 5 etc. Anyways it was a shitty entry to sell at support, and I have gotten myself more confused because of trying to make shit happen.
  • #21,707
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:03am Nov 22, 2016 9:03am
Quoting rocky
{quote} Thanks Damian. Nice vids with well constructed trades. I see a lot of good traders in here with well thought out chart analysis.
Thanks Rocky it is always a pleasure to have you stop by. I don't have the OF charts you have and I'm trying to get the gang to see it in the candles. So it's nice to see when you post it. I believe I can see it most of the time by reading the candles, I have been working on this for some time. That software is quite pricey for the majority of the traders here but it is really nice. I'm trying to see it without it but to be cheap but if I can train myself to read the chart to that level of detail it will make me that much better of a trader. I believe that software will probable confirm and possible help me on timing entries. Thank you again for your detail explanation on the real order flow as it also helps me mature that skill set.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,708
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:06am Nov 22, 2016 9:06am
Quoting liemo
Giving GBPUSD a go. 1) Orderflow and strength to the downside 2) Bounce off supply area and 61.8 FIB 3) Entry on rotational candle. Please feel to comment. Thanks. {image}
I like it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,709
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:14am Nov 22, 2016 9:14am
Quoting Tman72
{quote} I see it, believe it or not I've been trading backwards. Well you can see it plainly, I think I'm trying to tie it together quickly so I can leave this job that sucks. That being said I am happy everyone has helped me see that selling at support. I knew as soon as I posted that chart I would see the errors of my ways. I cannot thank Mr Pip and everyone else for the lessons. I was getting tired of the trading made simple thread that was really loaded with indicators. I like the naked chart thing. I will slow down and try to soak this in....
There you go! I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say I'm here to help all of us grow. This may be my thread but there are many great traders with great points and knowledge to share. I grow to from your experiences and contributions. I love this place. No bullshit here! At least for me. I make an amazing living doing this and I'm sharing it with you all. Since the beginning. No cherry picking of after the fact bullshit. I wish people truly saw the real value here. This does not happen in this business. And it's free. It takes lots of time to put this together in a way that all can understand. I believe in you but be patient do your homework and before you know it you will too will be seeing your equity curve head in the right direction.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,710
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:20am Nov 22, 2016 9:20am
Quoting ltupower
Hi, I'm new here and i'm really struggling with entrances.. Is this trade was just unlucky or bad decision? Trying to put my first graph.. {image}
It is not a terrible trade. I understand your entry and the area in which you looked for it. But we must consider the order flow. What it price telling us. Look at how aggressive price sold off of that NSH. Then look at how much strength that support zone was hit with. It was going to be tough for the bulls to defend that area to begin with. Order flow is a fundamental skill to have when trading any system. Price action is king! It will tell you when what looks like a good set up is actually crap. Or the zone may need more time to develop.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,711
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:27am Nov 22, 2016 9:27am
Quoting jmezz
{quote} I think this is very doable considering your return. We've already had 1 live stream with another one on the near horizon. And I know I'm not the only one amped for that accumulation / distribution vid. Lots of big things coming so think participation will only continue on it's path upwards.
Thanks!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,712
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:30am Nov 22, 2016 9:30am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} There you go! I'm sure I speak for everyone when I say I'm here to help all of us grow. This may be my thread but there are many great traders with great points and knowledge to share. I grow to from your experiences and contributions. I love this place. No bullshit here! At least for me. I make an amazing living doing this and I'm sharing it with you all. Since the beginning. No cherry picking of after the fact bullshit. I wish people truly saw the real value here. This does not happen in this business. And it's free. It takes lots of time...
Great and wise words Mr Pip!
I need to find time to share my setups as well. This is the least I can do to contribute to this wonderful thread. But I do not want to share them after the facts.
  • #21,713
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:31am Nov 22, 2016 9:31am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} I noticed quite a difference between Damians' EU tick chart and my M5 MT4 chart. Subtle and obvious differences including very different price levels. Issues like this could impact the way one trader views PA to how another trader views it. This was my impression anyway when I looked at both EU charts. Masterrmind.............
Yes the swing should look very close but remember I am looking at the EU Futures data it's raw unfiltered data. Your brokers take that and filter it to some extent then play with the spread at will. On the futures side that does not happen no spread no filtering the exchange sets the price and everyone has to eat it that way. Fair for everyone.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,714
  • Edited 10:28am Nov 22, 2016 9:33am | Edited 10:28am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} between fib 61.8 and 78.4 would be the 1:1 harmonic move down. Moreover, there is structure. Maybe a point to go long, if price comes down.
I just did this on YM and closed after +13, since I did not want to lose those points.

I still think that price will go more up, but we will see.

Edit: Price moves nicely up without me for the rest, but ok at least I saw it.
  • #21,715
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:34am Nov 22, 2016 9:34am
Quoting Wolves77
{quote} i think the M5 chart just shows more data, so at first glance they can seem different. I've always used m3 and the differences have always seemed slight, although i agree those subtle differences can make a big difference when deciding on whether to take a trade or not. M5 E/U chart {image}
In periods when the market is slow the tick chart will print less candles allowing for smoother price action and in periods of volatility it will print more candles.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,716
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:35am Nov 22, 2016 9:35am
Quoting jmezz
YM +4, -9 = -5 for today. Taking small loss home, this PA is trash. Notes on chart. {image}
Complete trash.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,717
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:36am Nov 22, 2016 9:36am
Quoting pcdr23
Mr.Pip what currency pair are you trading?
I trade the E-Mini DOW which is the YM. Futures.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,718
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:40am Nov 22, 2016 9:40am
Quoting Hazza88
{quote} This has been very first day testing out the dow too ha
Sorry it was such a crappy first day. Hopefully tomorrow will be better. Some how I haven't lost a trade this month I'm at 100% but I also have not taken many because the markets have been shit lately.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,719
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:52am Nov 22, 2016 9:52am
Quoting Tman72
{quote} I took the magenta one short and the other was my stop. When I entered it looked like it was going to make a NSL. it went against me because I didn't contrast the support area price action with a bad decision to sell. I only target between 15 and 20 pips, and always move my stop loss to break even plus 1 when I get to 5 pips in the green. If it goes up more to plus 10 then I move my stop to plus 5 etc. Anyways it was a shitty entry to sell at support, and I have gotten myself more confused because of trying to make shit happen.
Ok you are not giving you trade breathing room. It is unrealistic to expect your trade to hit profit targets while only allowing 5 pips of room. You need to understand that stops and trade management must be mechanical and dynamic. That may sound like its impossible but let me explain in more detail.

Mechanical is having a set of rules as a guideline for you to follow and remain consistent.

Dynamic means your rules allow for your trail to be dynamic.

Here is an example.

If price test and area of structure my stop goes to BE +2

That structure area will be different every single trade because that will be depending on what the market is doing keeping it dynamic.

Your trail also.
Rule example: If price makes a NSH or NSL I will trail my stop on short term structure.

That short term structure will also be dynamic depending on how price is moving.

The point is what you are doing now will give you lots of +5 pip wins and leaving tons of money on the table. It also screws up your expectancy big time but that is another matter or lesson.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,720
  • Nov 22, 2016 9:56am Nov 22, 2016 9:56am
Ok Traders, I have caught up and the market is still crap So I'm going to call it a day for me just that one trade +10 points. I will be back later to catch up and post if needed.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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