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  • #341
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:32pm Nov 17, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting WDays
{quote} No, I am cautiously bullish, which means I'm not shorting neither right now. But I want confirmation to start going long Any dips on USDx for now are an opportunity to go short on EU/GU moreso than a decent long trade on EU/GU. Especially with news of a very probable rate hike by the Fed...
Thanks mate
thinking outside the box
  • #342
  • Nov 18, 2016 8:05am Nov 18, 2016 8:05am
Quoting WDays
{quote} Sure they can, it's just a matter of keeping it simple for me. Also there is no point in checking them every single day, once a month is okay in my book. ICT has been talking about the "trinity of yields" and it goes a little something like this: We use a trio of major yields - US Bonds, UK, and the German Bund. We want to see if they're confirming (moving in tandem) or diverging. If one of them is divergent, then we can expect something of a trend shift, and the rest will usually follow. Secondly, we want to see if they're moving up or...
Hello WDays, Here I am reading the thread and taking a closer look at Yields and how they can hint shifts in market sentiment as risk on and risk off scenarios, and I believe this statement is misleading isn't it? Please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe currencies seek yields therefore if yields are going up this is risk on and bullish, on the contrary if they're going down this is appreciation for the safe haven currencies like the dollar and we expect to see a risk off scenario.

Now what do you think about future movement of the Trinity? I've notice a small divergence in the US yields compared to the others and how yields are moving higher, perhaps we'll see failure in the USDx holding higher levels and a market shift to a bullish bias macro speaking in the upcoming months. Anyways, just my neophyte view on the market outlook without taking into account other barometers like Gold and OIL.

Your input is very much appreciated and have a great weekend all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trinity of yeilds.jpg Size: 90 KB
thinking outside the box
  • #343
  • Nov 19, 2016 12:08am Nov 19, 2016 12:08am
Quoting pipshaman
{quote} All ppls are intelectualy averaged ppl, me included, because it is an average!!! lol There is a lot of free and good information on internet regarding all aspects of life, you just have to sort it out. If you don't believe in fairytales and holygrails and use a common sense you can sort the valuable info from the garbage info. Regards!
Yes, thanks.
  • #344
  • Nov 19, 2016 12:15am Nov 19, 2016 12:15am
.I am building a plan that could help in your daily lives, consists of a series of rules as: to think the consequences before acting, imagine what you are going to do in the future before you do so, this could help to avoid conflicts and remember things forgotten that might assist you in the future.

I will publish the list in the future.

This will help you to invest your money thinking carefully or smart. the people are very dumb and invest their money without thinking sometimes.
  • #345
  • Nov 21, 2016 5:55am Nov 21, 2016 5:55am
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} Hello WDays, Here I am reading the thread and taking a closer look at Yields and how they can hint shifts in market sentiment as risk on and risk off scenarios, and I believe this statement is misleading isn't it? Please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe currencies seek yields therefore if yields are going up this is risk on and bullish, on the contrary if they're going down this is appreciation for the safe haven currencies like the dollar and we expect to see a risk off scenario. Now what do you think about future movement of the Trinity?...
Hi, sorry for the late reply.

In general, when the bund is moving higher, so is the euro, when the US bond is moving higher, so is the dollar etc. It's hard to predict future yield move, so I don't really bother, but you could use the trinity to see when one goes off in its own direction and trade that currency because it will be stronger than the rest (think currency strength meter wise).

This chart, that you posted is showing higher yields, and we're expecting a Fed rate hike like almost 100%. Bullish dollar it is... for now.
  • #346
  • Nov 21, 2016 6:23am Nov 21, 2016 6:23am
Quoting WDays
{quote} Hi, sorry for the late reply. In general, when the bund is moving higher, so is the euro, when the US bond is moving higher, so is the dollar etc. It's hard to predict future yield move, so I don't really bother, but you could use the trinity to see when one goes off in its own direction and trade that currency because it will be stronger than the rest (think currency strength meter wise). This chart, that you posted is showing higher yields, and we're expecting a Fed rate hike like almost 100%. Bullish dollar it is... for now.
Thanks mate
thinking outside the box
  • #347
  • Nov 22, 2016 5:20am Nov 22, 2016 5:20am
Morning WDays my friend, I have a Technical question which is confusing me, hope you don't mind.

When approaching a KSR, and lets say for instance we're neutral in our bias, but we expect a bounce since the level is very sensitive, do you wait for structure to form on the Higher Timeframe, form a bias and THEN start taking positions intraday from smaller timeframes? Or if structure start to break intraday you start to positioning yourself?
thinking outside the box
  • #348
  • Nov 22, 2016 7:54am Nov 22, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Mercennary
Morning WDays my friend, I have a Technical question which is confusing me, hope you don't mind. When approaching a KSR, and lets say for instance we're neutral in our bias, but we expect a bounce since the level is very sensitive, do you wait for structure to form on the Higher Timeframe, form a bias and THEN start taking positions intraday from smaller timeframes? Or if structure start to break intraday you start to positioning yourself?
It depends on how confident I am. Sometimes I will aggressively buy or sell off the level, other times I will wait for smaller timeframe market structure.

Most of the time it's the first, because I try to preempt price action throughout the session/day, so when I build my bias using the higher timeframes I just look for levels to buy or sell at on my lower timeframes. There are times, like the EU long off the 1.0570, where I want structure verification.
  • #349
  • Nov 22, 2016 7:56am Nov 22, 2016 7:56am
Reversals are the trickiest, because sometimes price will fly off in the opposite direction that it has been going, sometimes it will only move slightly and go into a range. EU did just that, it's been consolidating and market structure can be confusing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #350
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:02am Nov 22, 2016 8:02am
Over at the lower timeframes, we see a clear break in market structure last night, and like I said - expect a deep retracement following that. Where does it go? Inside a demand area, only to shoot up. So on here, we also have market structure confirming, except we have to look back to notice it.

However the follow up was not too convincing, hence why we have another dip inside that same demand area. If this were our daily close, I'd be selling tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 14 KB
  • #351
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:05am Nov 22, 2016 8:05am
Quoting WDays
Reversals are the trickiest, because sometimes price will fly off in the opposite direction that it has been going, sometimes it will only move slightly and go into a range. EU did just that, it's been consolidating and market structure can be confusing. {image}
Thanks again, these times when you start positioning yourself aggressively when market structure is breaking in the lower timeframes usually happens in extreme highs or lows from HTF or very very sensitive levels am I right?

Developing a bias is the hardest part IMHO, it will probably take a while for me to grasp the concepts but in 3 year of forex this is by far the first time I feel like getting in sync with what is actually going on behind the scenes.
thinking outside the box
  • #352
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:09am Nov 22, 2016 8:09am
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} Thanks again, these times when you start position yourself aggressively when market structure breaking in the lower timeframes usually happens in extreme highs or lows from HTF or very very sensitive levels am I right? Developing a bias is the hardest part IMHO, it will probably take a while for me to grasp the concepts but I've in 3 year this is by far the first time I feel like getting in sync with what is actually going on behind the scenes.
Developing a bias is the easiest part because there's no money on the table. You've got a clear mind while looking for stuff and actually see what your charts are showing, instead of what that feeling of nausea in your gut is telling you (fear/greed). It's when money's on the line that it gets hard.

Market structure shifts on lower timeframes can be a false indication, we only use to confirm what we already know - that the trend is reversing at an important level. You can't trust market structure breaks and shifts alone, because of the stop raids. It happens plenty of times, much more rare on the higher timeframes, though. It's all a combination of different principles that we apply throughout the entire routine, analytic stages and the execution stage.
  • #353
  • Nov 22, 2016 8:13am Nov 22, 2016 8:13am
Quoting Mercennary
{quote} but in 3 year of forex this is by far the first time I feel like getting in sync with what is actually going on behind the scenes.
Also, join the club, that's exactly how I felt the first time, too
  • #354
  • Nov 22, 2016 1:03pm Nov 22, 2016 1:03pm
Hi Alex,

I am not a regular poster on FF. I happen to come accross your thread and read it through. It is very interesting. I like your concept. Thanks for posting your methodology.

We have a similar approach i.e. looking at a higher timeframe and executing on lower timeframes. It is your thread that shed some light into supply and demand trading. I came accross supply/demand but never really applied it. Reading the entire thread and watching your well taken videos was very interesting. I am always interested in fine tuning my trading. I am looking forward for more of your insight and hopefully soon I will contribute as well.

As mentioned above, our approach is similar as I am defining my bias based on the higher timeframe. The execution is on the lower timeframe.
I totally agree with you in saying that most of the job is done outside of trading hours. I normally plan my week ahead on sundays. Then I just need to wait for price to reach my areas of interest. And H4 helps me with that. Trade execution is mostly on m5.

Happy trading,
Oezy
Never stop to learn
  • #355
  • Nov 22, 2016 1:19pm Nov 22, 2016 1:19pm
Quoting Whatsmyname
Hi Alex, I am not a regular poster on FF. I happen to come accross your thread and read it through. It is very interesting. I like your concept. Thanks for posting your methodology. We have a similar approach i.e. looking at a higher timeframe and executing on lower timeframes. It is your thread that shed some light into supply and demand trading. I came accross supply/demand but never really applied it. Reading the entire thread and watching your well taken videos was very interesting. I am always interested in fine tuning my trading. I am looking...
Would be great to have you on board man Thank you for the words of praise haha
  • #356
  • Nov 22, 2016 2:00pm Nov 22, 2016 2:00pm
I just realized I should maybe elaborate a bit on market structure, I'll get on it when I've got time this week.
  • #357
  • Nov 22, 2016 2:13pm Nov 22, 2016 2:13pm
Quoting WDays
I just realized I should maybe elaborate a bit on market structure, I'll get on it when I've got time this week.

That would be great!

I've been reading your thread since about a week ago and it's great stuff. Earlier today when you mentioned market structure I said to myself "I wish he would elaborate on that". I didn't post to make that request because I was afraid that topic alone might be too much of a tangent from your original topic in this thread. Anyway, I look forward to that and all your posts for that matter. Thank you for your time and effort in sharing your experience with us.


P.S. If there's a good source online that covers market structure that you know of I'd love to know about it. I'd like to get a nice introduction to it so that when you cover it it will make more sense to me.
  • #358
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:14am Nov 25, 2016 4:14am
Hi Alex,

you mentioned a couple times you expect range completions. When is a range complete? I assume there is a difference in range completion and a range taken out. Further, I assume a touch of a former supply/demand zone is the range completion. That would mean we look for a reversal at that point. Following this, a range taken out often translates to a high/low taken out. In this instance we expect a retracement.

Below I marked a level of interest. Not so sure if I'd call it a demand zone as of now as it was formed long time ago. Would the level in green be a range completion? Now we wait for a reaction. Ideally we get a strong bounce, and we'd assume a demand zone having formed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD D1.png Size: 98 KB


Cheers bro
Never stop to learn
  • #359
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:20am Nov 25, 2016 4:20am
Quoting Whatsmyname
Hi Alex, you mentioned a couple times you expect range completions. When is a range complete? I assume there is a difference in range completion and a range taken out. Further, I assume a touch of a former supply/demand zone is the range completion. That would mean we look for a reversal at that point. Following this, a range taken out often translates to a high/low taken out. In this instance we expect a retracement. Below I marked a level of interest. Not so sure if I'd call it a demand zone as of now as it was formed long time ago. Would the...
To me, range completion would mean a symmetrical move in the opposite direction, back to where the first movement came from. It looks like a V or an upside-down V on our charts.

Price on EU went into a historical low and bounced from it. It did, however complete the range.

This concept is based on the fact that markets oscillate up and down, and eventually price will go back to whence it came from.
  • #360
  • Nov 25, 2016 4:22am Nov 25, 2016 4:22am
Yesterday I started making a detailed blueprint on Market Structure, but I figured it would be way too long and not really clear to post as a block of text. Which is why I made a presentation and today I'll make it into a video, so you can look forward to that today.
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