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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #21,641
  • Nov 21, 2016 7:56pm Nov 21, 2016 7:56pm
Quoting rocky
{image} {image} {image} {image}
Very nice work. Great trade!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,642
  • Edited 9:31pm Nov 21, 2016 8:31pm | Edited 9:31pm
Just saw a trading opportunity for USDJPY, looks like aggressive C, took the trade due to rotation and rejection at .618 fib

Aiming for 1:1 move for AB=CD



edit: Trade is a fail, looking for graceful exit
Attached Image
  • #21,643
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:16pm Nov 21, 2016 9:16pm
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/6154511/eurusd-m15-oanda-division1 The magenta line was a short entry and it went up instead
  • #21,644
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:56pm Nov 21, 2016 9:56pm
Quoting Tman72
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/6154511/eurusd-m15-oanda-division1 The magenta line was a short entry and it went up instead
This is my opinion but refer to the chart that I posted on page 1082. As you can see price had made a NSH and a HL, as long as price did not break and close below the HL I would look for a long entry between the range of the HL and the NSH. Price then came to the HL but fail to break and close below it, instead it form a bullish engulfing candle which suggest that it could turn around and make another NSH, so your expectation would be a long and you can enter on the bullish engulfing candle with stop just below the HL retest.
  • #21,645
  • Nov 21, 2016 10:03pm Nov 21, 2016 10:03pm
Quoting Sakeplz
{quote} This is my opinion but refer to the chart that I posted on page 1082. As you can see price had made a NSH and a HL, as long as price did not break and close below the HL I would look for a long entry between the range of the HL and the NSH. Price then came to the HL but fail to break and close below it, instead it form a bullish engulfing candle which suggest that it could turn around and make another NSH, so your expectation would be a long and you can enter on the bullish engulfing candle with stop just below the HL retest.
I was thinking a NSL, obviously i was wrong.
  • #21,646
  • Edited 10:20pm Nov 21, 2016 10:09pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting Tman72
{quote} I was thinking a NSL, obviously i was wrong.
On the short term orderflow, it was a new structure low, but "selling" at the new structure low, especially if it's not the first one, is selling at retail and your risk would need to go above the recent high. Selling at the first NSL (immediate break of higher lows) can be interesting but even then there is usually a pullback before price continues downward.

Since the new structure low is the worst possible place to go short really (risk reward wise), it's better to wait for a pullback of at least 50% retracement to give you a favorable risk reward profile. This is all relative to the projection of the move down, momentum (how many candles did it take to get there), the structure to the left, etc.

Also if you look to the left you can see at your magenta line that you actually "sold" at support which is usually not a good idea, if anything, you would want price to break that low, come back up to retest that level, then go short. But selling short at the support level and at the new structure low is not the best way to put the odds in your favor.
  • #21,647
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:21pm Nov 21, 2016 11:21pm
Quoting Harmonic1976
Just saw a trading opportunity for USDJPY, looks like aggressive C, took the trade due to rotation and rejection at .618 fib Aiming for 1:1 move for AB=CD edit: Trade is a fail, looking for graceful exit {image}
I think you really need to have a good long look at this chart you posted.

The first leg down is very bearish but look how the bulls came in and pushed price back up from your NSL.
Bears come in again and again the bulls react.
Even on bearish rotation type candles the bulls are there to push price back up.
Bears are getting fewer candles running lower whilst the bulls are able to push up 2,3 or 4 candles in a row to the upside.
This activity continues and on the chart you can see how from the NSL (that you marked) the bulls are not allowing price to keep falling.
In fact as time goes on and more candles are produced the trading lows are getting pushed higher and higher.
That is to say that the lows are not being tested to the pip but convincingly losing strength to the downside.

This suggests to me that the bulls are in control (or soon will be) especially from the NSL (you have marked) and so the bulls are slowly but surely winning this fight.

Therefore, I would see the order flow as far more likely to be UP than down and would only look for longs in this particular zone of PA.

And yes I know I'm giving you my opinion with the luxury of hindsight ... but please look at my observations as I think they will help.

Its ok to look for shorts from a 61.8, 78.6 or 88.6 Fib but please consider the whole context and think to yourself ... does this make sense to short from this level? What is the risk/reward on this type of trade? Where is it that price appears to be headed?

Form an expectation of where price is most likely to go based on key trading factors.

Just what I see from looking only at your posted chart ... other traders may have a very different view.

Hope this can help you.

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,648
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:52pm Nov 21, 2016 11:52pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} I think you really need to have a good long look at this chart you posted. The first leg down is very bearish but look how the bulls came in and pushed price back up from your NSL. Bears come in again and again the bulls react. Even on bearish rotation type candles the bulls are there to push price back up. Bears are getting fewer candles running lower whilst the bulls are able to push up 2,3 or 4 candles in a row to the upside. This activity continues and on the chart you can see how from the NSL (that you marked) the bulls are not allowing...
Good points, definitely different price action than similar setups that have worked out way more often than not.. I missed the subtle cues that you have brought up. I was able to get out at a minimal loss since a Bat pattern ended up forming and got
out at around the .382 retracement. Thanks Masterrmind! Feedback is always welcome.
  • #21,649
  • Nov 22, 2016 2:08am Nov 22, 2016 2:08am
AUDUSD [M5 Chart]

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Looking to see if price will head up higher before considering a possible short entry.

Ideally from around the 78.6 to 88.6 levels in confluence with the 74 handle where price has been holding below.

Note 1: SL would probably be fairly tight.
Note 2: TP closer to the DO line just inside a projected 1:1.

Lets see!

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,650
  • Nov 22, 2016 2:27am Nov 22, 2016 2:27am
Quoting Masterrmind
AUDUSD [M5 Chart] {image} Looking to see if price will head up higher before considering a possible short entry. Ideally from around the 78.6 to 88.6 levels in confluence with the 74 handle where price has been holding below. Note 1: SL would probably be fairly tight. Note 2: TP closer to the DO line just inside a projected 1:1. Lets see! Masterrmind...........
AU

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Ok we are now in the zone.

Lets tread carefully ... no time for rash decisions.

Look @ PA
Look @ OF
Look @ chart structure

Wait for the bulls to tire
Wait for bearish intent

Be very mindful of the possibility that the bulls will simply keep gaining in strength ...
If the next candle is bearish after a strong bullish candle (as per chart) be patient and wait for an opportunity.

Just because my expectations have so been fulfilled exactly does not mean I should simply enter now without any care or attention.
Quite the opposite actually ... I need to be completely focused and in tune with both the PA and the order flow.

You get the picture!

Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,651
  • Nov 22, 2016 2:43am Nov 22, 2016 2:43am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} AU {image} Ok we are now in the zone. Lets tread carefully ... no time for rash decisions. Look @ PA Look @ OF Look @ chart structure Wait for the bulls to tire Wait for bearish intent Be very mindful of the possibility that the bulls will simply keep gaining in strength ... If the next candle is bearish after a strong bullish candle (as per chart) be patient and wait for an opportunity. Just because my expectations have so been fulfilled exactly does not mean I should simply enter now without any care or attention. Quite the opposite actually...
AU

I'm still digesting the PA.

Although the Fib ratios are fairly identical to the short trade I pulled off on AU yesterday the setup is very very different due mainly to the order flow up, projection and shallow pullbacks which hints at the possibility of continued bullish strength.

So I will wait and I will simply observe for the time being.

I would like to see another failed attempt by the bulls to push higher, then a roll-over in price followed by bearish intent.

If price accelerates down the chart and leaves me behind I won't even blink an eye ... not a problem at all if this was to happen.
I'd simply look for another viable setup and continue in the same analytical vein.

No entry yet.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,652
  • Nov 22, 2016 2:59am Nov 22, 2016 2:59am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} AU I'm still digesting the PA. Although the Fib ratios are fairly identical to the short trade I pulled off on AU yesterday the setup is very very different due mainly to the order flow up, projection and shallow pullbacks which hints at the possibility of continued bullish strength. So I will wait and I will simply observe for the time being. I would like to see another failed attempt by the bulls to push higher, then a roll-over in price followed by bearish intent. If price accelerates down the chart and leaves me behind I won't even blink...
AU

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A feeling that price is being held up.
No continued follow through by the bears at this point.

A waiting game!

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,653
  • Nov 22, 2016 3:07am Nov 22, 2016 3:07am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} AU {image} A feeling that price is being held up. No continued follow through by the bears at this point. A waiting game! Masterrmind............
AU

Check this out!

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Was it worth waiting, being patient and digesting all the trading factors?

I'll let you answer that for yourselves!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Now that a NSH has been made whats the next plan?

You tell me......

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,654
  • Nov 22, 2016 3:11am Nov 22, 2016 3:11am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Prior to starting I said this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9272353#post9272353. My expectation was for a NSH I had to wait for that to try to complete. I have not spoken to you all about accumulation and distribution of orders as this is a skill I have been refining for some time. I will be making a video on the topic but I'm still trying to figure out how to best present it. Anyway, I felt that selling would come easier then buying because of the bears being able to overwhelm the buyers in key areas. Although...
Great write-up. I was thinking about the short you took, but could not figure out the imbalance in this area, so I passed because my bias was bullish anyway. This adressed my thoughts and worries nicely. Perfect trade management by you, taking almost the whole swing. Gratz, wow!
  • #21,655
  • Nov 22, 2016 3:29am Nov 22, 2016 3:29am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} AU Check this out! {image} Was it worth waiting, being patient and digesting all the trading factors? I'll let you answer that for yourselves! ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Now that a NSH has been made whats the next plan? You tell me...... Masterrmind...........
AU

Bias has possibly changed to long.

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Considered a long entry however, there is too much risk in taking a trade from this 74 handle under current conditions.

So I'm going to sit this one out on the sidelines and simply watch the chart.

In the meantime I'm looking at alternative pairs to trade.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,656
  • Nov 22, 2016 4:21am Nov 22, 2016 4:21am
EURUSD [M5 Chart]

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Short entry in progress.

SL moved to BE + a few pips for a free ride!

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,657
  • Nov 22, 2016 4:26am Nov 22, 2016 4:26am
Quoting Masterrmind
EURUSD [M5 Chart] {image} Short entry in progress. SL moved to BE + a few pips for a free ride! Looking for 15-20 pips ... lets see! Masterrmind............
Hi Mastermind, what was your reason for going short on EURUSD?
  • #21,658
  • Nov 22, 2016 4:27am Nov 22, 2016 4:27am
Quoting Masterrmind
EURUSD [M5 Chart] {image} Short entry in progress. SL moved to BE + a few pips for a free ride! Masterrmind............
EU - closed out.

+8.2 pips.

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Next .....

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,659
  • Nov 22, 2016 4:40am Nov 22, 2016 4:40am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Very nice work. Great trade!
Thanks Damian. Nice vids with well constructed trades. I see a lot of good traders in here with well thought out chart analysis.
  • #21,660
  • Nov 22, 2016 5:05am Nov 22, 2016 5:05am
Quoting liemo
{quote} Hi Mastermind, what was your reason for going short on EURUSD?
EU - logical thought process

Very briefly as follows:

1. Breakdown in the bulls to continue taking price further up from the 1.06500 psych level (red upper horizontal line ... look left on my chart)

2. Almost a bearish rotation type candle (close enough in my book)

3. Followed by a doji and then very weak bullish action back up into structure showing that the bulls are not that keen to carry price much higher

4. Entered short on the back of a nice push by the bears to the downside (visual context)

5. Initially looking to short down closer to the DO line but some structure down below showed a little halt in the bearish drop (evident by chart structure)

6. Closed it out for some pips.

Hope that sheds some light.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
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