The Options Thread | Page 17 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Currency options 10 replies

Currency Options 41 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Anyone trading "Box Options" with Oanda??? 20 replies

Attachments: The Options Thread
Exit Attachments

The Options Thread

  • #321
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:52pm Nov 21, 2016 9:52pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Today: Had to do something with this broken iron condor: Rolling IWM Dec 9th 116.5/119.5/123.5/126.5 iron condor to Dec 9th 124/127/127/131 iron fly for a .47/contract credit. Price will have to roll back into the body of the setup at 127 for this to "work out" by expiry; otherwise, I'll be fiddling with the setup a little more. Gotta think that some of RUT/IWM post-election strength is going to come off ... at some point ... .
Naturally, as I'm posting this, /ES is hitting ATH's ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #322
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:59pm Nov 21, 2016 9:59pm
My notion has always ... always been to short FXE (the EURUSD proxy) with a directional spread (short call vert) on strength. I'm not keen on going long on a muted bounce going into FOMC, although I've seen a few trade "ideas" going long EURUSD here (which would be long FXE):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FXE WEEKLY.jpg Size: 374 KB


To me, that is likely to be only "modestly productive" here ... . I don't do "modestly productive".
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #323
  • Nov 22, 2016 11:20am Nov 22, 2016 11:20am
Covering: EWW Dec 16th 39/45/45/50 iron fly for a 2.36 db. It's a little short of 25% max profit, but when the market gives you >20% in 6 days' time, I say "money, take, run." In for 3.01, out for 2.36, net profit $60/contract.

Rolling: IWM Dec 16th 116/119/121/124 to Jan 20th 119/122/122/125 iron fly for a .01 net credit. Couldn't do much to roll the put side up intratrade without "running over the top" of the short call side which I don't like to do, so rolling out to Jan expiry for a weenie credit, keeping the dream alive. This is one that will take some work to get back to scratch in the absence of a total implosion of IWM/RUT here ... .

Opening: IWM Dec 16th 136.5/Jan 20th 140 call diagonal. Hey, it's a low vol environment, so put on low vol strats. I generally am not a huge fan of these, but for a .01 debit, what the heck ... . However, the platform seems to be treating it, buying power wise, as a credit spread ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #324
  • Nov 22, 2016 3:06pm Nov 22, 2016 3:06pm
Rolling: IWM Dec 23rd 116/119 short put vert to Dec 23rd 125/128 short put vert for a .41 cr. IWM up move continues to be unrelenting ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #325
  • Nov 23, 2016 3:35pm Nov 23, 2016 3:35pm
Happy Thanksgiving, Zeebs!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #326
  • Nov 23, 2016 9:30pm Nov 23, 2016 9:30pm
Quoting The Fool
Happy Thanksgiving, Zeebs!
You, too, man.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #327
  • Nov 24, 2016 12:26pm Nov 24, 2016 12:26pm
The VIX pop setup for the next high volatility go around, courtesy of my TradingView doppleganger, NaughtyPines: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VI...RT-CALL-VERTS/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #328
  • Nov 24, 2016 1:44pm Nov 24, 2016 1:44pm
I may have posted this link before. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/10...x-and-contango In a nutshell, it shows how contango obliterates long-term long UVXY, VXX positions. Put a different way, don't play UVXY, VXX long ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #329
  • Nov 25, 2016 11:41am Nov 25, 2016 11:41am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Put a different way, don't play UVXY, VXX long ... .
certainly those things have their place if one knows how to use them. I have had the best luck with long-dated otm flys, the wider the better. These can be put on cheap and will give up large returns in a good vol pop, especially if that happens within a couple weeks of expiry. I have shown these at LTO....I filled a Jan20 $25/35/45 UVXY fly for 13c this week, looking for similar setups in Mar (although I'd have to worry UVXY will have r/s again by then). Anyway, strictly dime +/- debits on the spreads, and no short leg exposure (ie, no broke wings or diagonals)...

I also know traders who just buy cheap otm UVXY calls (typically 2-3 months out and at the bottom of the chain) - those will pop multiples if there is a vol rush. In any case, just going long the shares is suicidal, and there are no shares available to short. I really wonder why UVXY has not been shut down....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #330
  • Nov 26, 2016 10:15pm Nov 26, 2016 10:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}certainly those things have their place if one knows how to use them. I have had the best luck with long-dated otm flys, the wider the better. These can be put on cheap and will give up large returns in a good vol pop, especially if that happens within a couple weeks of expiry. I have shown these at LTO....I filled a Jan20 $25/35/45 UVXY fly for 13c this week, looking for similar setups in Mar (although I'd have to worry UVXY will have r/s again by then). Anyway, strictly dime +/- debits on the spreads, and no short leg exposure (ie, no broke...
I guess I should clarify: (1) Buying shares in either UVXY or VXX -- definitely a very horrible idea (because of contango). (2) Selling stand alone naked puts, probably just as bad an idea (again, contango). (3) Lotto long calls, probs okay, since it's, by nature, a lotto trade; (4) ATM long calls, most likely a bad idea because they're expensive and are likely to erode if held for any period of time (yep, contango -- plus theta decay). (6) Flies, like long calls, can be set up cheaply so that they pay well with movement and/or volatility expansion and so that the loss in the absence of a timely pop is small; in that respect, they're probably better than just plain ass cheap long calls.

Guess what I'm trying to get at is those that chart VXX, UVXY like they are "just another instrument" and say to themselves, "VXX/UVXY is low here [from a charting standpoint]. It'll eventually pop, so I should buy now." Naturally, that could work ... if there is a pop before contango starts to inevitably eat away at the position. If you get no pop in fairly short order, expensive long positions (short puts, long shares, ATM long calls) start to undergo a total ass whoopin', courtesy of contango.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #331
  • Nov 26, 2016 10:40pm Nov 26, 2016 10:40pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I guess I should clarify: (1) Buying shares in either UVXY or VXX -- definitely a very horrible idea (because of contango). (2) Selling stand alone naked puts, probably just as bad an idea (again, contango). (3) Lotto long calls, probs okay, since it's, by nature, a lotto trade; (4) ATM long calls, most likely a bad idea because they're expensive and are likely to erode if held for any period of time (yep, contango -- plus theta decay). (6) Flies, like long calls, can be set up cheaply so that they pay well with movement and/or volatility...
Naturally, one can always play VIX options and avoid all this messy contango and such ... . I just like to "ride the contango drift", which gives me an added assist for bearish assumption setups (short call credit spreads) put on at price extremes/pops ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #332
  • Nov 27, 2016 12:29am Nov 27, 2016 12:29am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
(6) Flies, like long calls, can be set up cheaply so that they pay well with movement and/or volatility expansion and so that the loss in the absence of a timely pop is small; in that respect, they're probably better than just plain ass cheap long calls.
RT. Here's a 12c UVXY fly set for Dec23, $13/15/17 - I set these up for specific (possible) volatility events - in this case, I was thinking Electoral College. If I could put them on cheap enoough, I might have them running all the time, just to catch the unplanned events that might pop the ^VIX. As it is, I am filling these narrow ones sometimes for 6-8c. If its's something otm but quite wide and way out in time, I am still looking for <15c. The wide stuff could pay 15x or more and even the skinny fly shown could go near 10x with a perfect finish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-26_2137UVXY6.png Size: 69 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #333
  • Nov 27, 2016 12:45am Nov 27, 2016 12:45am
one more while I'm on it & then I won't post anymore of these here, just old hat for me & a good way to bleed an account in the never-ending bull market, anyway. Note that the fly goes into good profit some weeks before expiry across a very wide range. The wider the wings, the better, and of course, a little vol pop goes a long way. The fly below shows a 2c mid, but I don't even know if I would pay that, because UVXY likely will r/s again before March.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-26_2240uvxy7.png Size: 68 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #334
  • Nov 27, 2016 12:42pm Nov 27, 2016 12:42pm
http://johnsville.blogspot.ca/2014/1...th-skills.html

2-yr old article, kind of mean, but......would be interesting to see an updated hit. idk though, I rarely look at tt anymore. And I rarely burn margin selling premium anymore, either. This is where zeebs and I differ in how we trade options, for the most part.

The best results I have achieved trading options has been buying spreads on the right side of the market. I usually am trading both directions, although asymmetrically, and that has helped some to limit losses when I have been wrong directionally.

If I could develop the discipline to just stop trading, or trade very small only, in those times when the market is stuck sideways, I'd be better. I know that would take me out of play > 1/2 the time, but that's ok.

So no I don't trade the tt way. I never thought "trade small, trade often" was good advice. The smaller your trade, the larger your fractional loss to commissions. And why often? Why not trade the very best opps and leave the rest alone?

Being able to recognize those opps comes with time and experience. I still piss away too much on fotm longshot trades. I rationalize that it's ok cuz I am blowing what? 10c on a trade with >10bag potential? Well, many expire worthless and those 10c dings add up.

If I had larger accounts, with portfolio margin, I'd be more interested in selling options way out on the curve, but that's not where I'm at.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #335
  • Nov 27, 2016 5:25pm Nov 27, 2016 5:25pm
Quoting The Fool
http://johnsville.blogspot.ca/2014/1...th-skills.html 2-yr old article, kind of mean, but......would be interesting to see an updated hit. idk though, I rarely look at tt anymore. And I rarely burn margin selling premium anymore, either. This is where zeebs and I differ in how we trade options, for the most part. The best results I have achieved trading options has been buying spreads on the right side of the market. I usually am trading both directions, although asymmetrically, and that has helped some to limit losses...
A brutally cynical and critical approach, that article ... . Lol.

As with all things, I take away what I can use and what makes sense to me whether it be from TastyTrade or any other source. The rest goes into the trash bin.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #336
  • Nov 27, 2016 5:40pm Nov 27, 2016 5:40pm
One thing I do know: I don't like the plays the Dough screener* is giving me:

Attached Image


I'd rather not pile into petro here with OPEC meetings around the corner, and those individual stocks -- meh: three are weenie gold miners, LULU has earnings coming up, and that OPK -- can't get squat out of a setup ... . So hand sitting here until the market loses some of its Thanksgiving holiday week weight gain ... .

* -- I couldn't find jack leaving it to filter for >70% IVR for the preceding 52 weeks, so I switched to IV's percentile over the preceding 6 months which, at least, yields some results ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #337
  • Nov 28, 2016 7:48pm Nov 28, 2016 7:48pm
Today: Covering AG Dec 16th 7 short puts for a .05 db (near worthless). In for a .39 ($39)/contract credit, out for a .05 ($5) debit, $35 net profit/contract (no fees/comms for contracts closed for .05 or less). This is part of a covered call; I still have Dec 16th 9 short calls on.

Covering: Sold NUGT shares. Net loss $10.66. Hated the trade; hate the instrument ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #338
  • Nov 29, 2016 9:07am Nov 29, 2016 9:07am
Rolling: IWM Dec 30th 136.5 short call to Jan 6th 136.5 for a .19 cr. This is part of a calendar, and this roll is more about locking in profit from the down move/theta decay than the credit received (fairly paltry, lol).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #339
  • Nov 29, 2016 10:53am Nov 29, 2016 10:53am
Opening: EWZ Dec 16th 30.5/33.5/33.5/37 dynamic iron fly for a 1.81 credit (chased this a bit). POP: 45% (these always suck that way); Max Profit: $181/contract; Max Loss: $169 per contract; Break Evens at 31.6/35.4. Will look to manage at 25% max. I went short duration because the setup wasn't liquid in the weeklies, and I didn't want to go all the way out to Jan ... . EWZ IV is pretty good for an ETF -- 39.1%

Additionally, there isn't much premium to be sold out there besides in the obvious instruments: OIH, XOP, XLE, USO (all uber frisky around OPEC). I'd prefer waiting for OPEC to pass and then dig into one of those (probs XOP).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #340
  • Nov 29, 2016 12:03pm Nov 29, 2016 12:03pm
Rolling: AG Dec 16th 9 short call to Jan 20th 10 short call for a .03 cr. This is part of a covered call that I'm not ready to walk away from yet (i.e., I don't want my shares to be called away at 9, so rolling up and out for duration on this up move).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
0 traders viewing now