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  • #281
  • Oct 18, 2016 5:14pm Oct 18, 2016 5:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I filled a Nov18/Nov25 $57 call calendar for 2c....looking for EWW to be trading back above $55 post-election....2 centavos yo, I'm a stonecold baller...
I expect that some tequila will be flowing on the other side of the border with a Hill-Dawg win ... . Dos centavos and Tres Equis ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #282
  • Oct 18, 2016 9:16pm Oct 18, 2016 9:16pm
HERE it is, eeeeejoleeee, risk $0.02 to net out >$0.44 maxP?.... ay caramba that's 20+ baggy, b/e at $54.00 m/l, just $2.50 away....I have a variety of these for Nov and Dec, thanks for reminding me of EWW, zeebs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-18_1911EWW.png Size: 66 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #283
  • Oct 19, 2016 9:50pm Oct 19, 2016 9:50pm
Quoting The Fool
HERE it is, eeeeejoleeee, risk $0.02 to net out >$0.44 maxP?.... ay caramba that's 20+ baggy, b/e at $54.00 m/l, just $2.50 away....I have a variety of these for Nov and Dec, thanks for reminding me of EWW, zeebs {image}
No hay de que, muchacho ... . Debates now over, the peso continues to grind up ... . Short-term, the "Peso Verdict" has been delivered ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #284
  • Oct 21, 2016 6:30pm Oct 21, 2016 6:30pm
Covering: NVAX Nov 18th 2 short calls for a .10 ($10)/contract debit and Rolling Nov 18th 2 short puts to April for a .25 ($25)/contract credit. I wanted to close out the short calls here while I could (although I don't see price whipping back up into them in the short-term) and be a little more patient than I was immediately after the stock imploded when I should have waited for a bounce (never happened) to sell short calls against. My cost basis is now 3.90/share, so I'll wait for an opportunity to sell 4 calls if this thing ever gets up off the floor ... .

Covering: Nov 18th GSAT 1.5 short calls for a .05 ($5) debit, as they've done their job. Opening: April 1.5 short calls for a .25 ($25)/contract credit. It's way out in time, and it isn't much, but it reduces my cost basis to 1.07/share, a penny above current market price ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #285
  • Oct 23, 2016 11:21pm Oct 23, 2016 11:21pm
In full-on hand-sitting/twiddle mode until (a) elections pass; or (b) VIX pops big time north of 15 (ohhhhh, that's a funny one) ... .

Makes for quick work: (a) open portfolio; (b) look to see if extrinsic value of any short options is approaching worthless; (c) if not, close portfolio ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #286
  • Oct 24, 2016 5:59pm Oct 24, 2016 5:59pm
Well, maybe just one trade here ... . Lol.

Opening: TWTR Nov 11th 14/18/18/22 iron fly (High IVR/High IV; Volatility Contraction Play)

Metrics:

Probability of Profit: 47%
Max Profit: $217/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $183/contract
Break Evens: 15.83/20.17

Note: Doing this a couple days before earnings so that I don't space it out (as I am want to do). I'll look to manage it for 25% max profit, as I would a short straddle. Just couldn't get enough premium out of a short strangle/iron condor to go that way ... .

Here's the graphical representation of the setup:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TWTR.jpg Size: 137 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #287
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:00am Oct 26, 2016 1:00am
Oh, the life of a rumor ... .

First, TWTR slumps today on TWTR moving its earnings announcement from after market close to before market open, leading to speculation along the lines of "Well, what the hell is that about? That's concerning." etc., yada yada.

After hours, a rumor of renewed interest by DIS (probably the worst suitor in terms of "fit" for the company of all those rumored to be "interested") trickles out to major financial media outlets such as MarketWatch and Bloomberg. The rumor consists of a buy-out price "in the 20's" that was supposedly agreed-upon "late last week." At one point, TWTR's after hours price pops to $18, gaining back all the ground it lost during the NY session.

Various media outlets (e.g., Bezinga) track down the source of the rumor to the backwater website, Betaville, which posts a "teaser" line about the rumor, but requires you to register so you can log into the site to "read the whole scoop." Benzinga, citing its own unnamed, but supposedly reliable source inside Twitter, says the rumor is "crap."

A little basic reading on the Betaville site shows that Betaville's "editorial staff" consists of a single freelance "financial journalist."

Amazingly (or maybe not), a single person (which is what Betaville is) pushing unsubstantiated horseshit to get users to register for its "news" can move markets -- a tweet, a teaser, a fart in the wind ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #288
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:10am Oct 26, 2016 1:10am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Oh, the life of a rumor ... . First, TWTR slumps today on TWTR moving its earnings announcement from after market close to before market open, leading to speculation along the lines of "Well, what the hell is that about? That's concerning." etc., yada yada. After hours, a rumor of renewed interest by DIS (probably the worst suitor in terms of "fit" for the company of all those rumored to be "interested") trickles out to major financial media outlets such as MarketWatch and Bloomberg. The rumor consists of a buy-out price "in the 20's" that was supposedly...
Ironically, I actually benefit from this rumor ... . Having put on an iron fly in TWTR with the "body" of the fly at $18, I guess I shouldn't be complaining ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #289
  • Oct 26, 2016 10:26am Oct 26, 2016 10:26am
Covering AMD covered calls for a whopping $15 per 100 shares/contract. Freeing up buying power.

Covering CLF covered calls for a similar small winner. Freeing up buying power.

Looking to start to rotate back into my bread and butter trades (IWM/RUT, SPY/SPX) if I can get some uptick in volatility ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #290
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:25pm Oct 26, 2016 1:25pm
Here's the whole chain for the AMD Covered Call: 9/6: Bought shares at 7.61 and sold the Oct 21st 8 call as a package for a $700 debit. 9/30: Rolled the Oct 21st 8 calls down to the Nov 18th 7 calls for a $37 credit. 10/26: Closing for a $681 credit. Total credits received ($681+$37) - total debits paid ($700) - minus fees = $15 in profit. Here, price actually declined from where I bought shares, and I still didn't lose money. While I could have hung on until Nov 18th expiry (the setup was in-the-money), I wanted to free up buying power for my more traditional go-to setups in broad market/sector ETF's.

And the chain for the CLF: 8/22: Bought shares at 6.04 and sold the Sept 30th 7 calls for a $585 db. 9/12: Covered the Sept 30th 7 calls for a $5 debit (near worthless). 9/12: Sold the Oct 28th 6.5 calls for a $28 credit. 10/11: Rolled the Oct 28th 6.5 calls to the Nov 18th 6 calls for a $24 credit. 10/26: Closed for a $558 credit. Total credits received minus total debits paid minus fees/comm's = $15.42. Basically, the stock "went nowhere," but I still made money, albeit a small amount.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #291
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:28pm Oct 26, 2016 1:28pm
With the price of AG (a silver miner) significantly off where I bought it for a covered call (now down 40% or so), I have a couple of different options here: (1) buy additional stock here (the old "buy low, sell high" idea); or (2) sell short puts with the notion of either getting assigned stock even lower or keeping the premium. I'm opting for the latter, since it eats up less buying power ... .

Opening: AG Dec 16th 7 short put for a $39 credit.

I still have the shares on from the original setup and am still selling calls against those ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #292
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:33pm Oct 26, 2016 1:33pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Oh, the life of a rumor ... . First, TWTR slumps today on TWTR moving its earnings announcement from after market close to before market open, leading to speculation along the lines of "Well, what the hell is that about? That's concerning." etc., yada yada. After hours, a rumor of renewed interest by DIS (probably the worst suitor in terms of "fit" for the company of all those rumored to be "interested") trickles out to major financial media outlets such as MarketWatch and Bloomberg. The rumor consists of a buy-out price "in the 20's" that was supposedly...
TWTR has basically given up all of the "renewed DIS interest" rumor gains here running into earnings, which come out tomorrow before market open ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #293
  • Oct 27, 2016 3:21am Oct 27, 2016 3:21am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
" Amazingly (or maybe not), a single person (which is what Betaville is) pushing unsubstantiated horseshit to get users to register for its "news" can move markets -- a tweet, a teaser, a fart in the wind ... . Lol.
I smell a Business Plan.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #294
  • Oct 27, 2016 12:52pm Oct 27, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I smell a Business Plan.
Clearly, I'm in the "wrong business" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #295
  • Oct 27, 2016 12:55pm Oct 27, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Well, maybe just one trade here ... . Lol. Opening: TWTR Nov 11th 14/18/18/22 iron fly (High IVR/High IV; Volatility Contraction Play) Metrics: Probability of Profit: 47% Max Profit: $217/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $183/contract Break Evens: 15.83/20.17 Note: Doing this a couple days before earnings so that I don't space it out (as I am want to do). I'll look to manage it for 25% max profit, as I would a short straddle. Just couldn't get enough premium out of a short strangle/iron condor to go that way ... . Here's the graphical representation...
Covering this setup here for a $171 debit. In for a $217 credit; out for a $171 debit; $41/contract net profit after fees/comms. I would note that I had a bit of a time closing the entire setup as a unit, so I closed the short straddle portion of the setup first (the 18/18) and then the long option wings separately ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #296
  • Oct 27, 2016 1:43pm Oct 27, 2016 1:43pm
Rotating a touch into sector ETF's with high IV relative where its been over the past 52-weeks, 6 months ... .

Here's one whose IV is at the top of its 6-month range: IYR.

Metrics:

Probability of Profit: 44%
Max Profit: $335/contract
Max Loss: $265/contract
Break Evens: 71.65/78.35

Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit, if I can get a fill here. Here's the graphical representation of the setup:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IYR FLY.jpg Size: 309 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #297
  • Oct 27, 2016 5:21pm Oct 27, 2016 5:21pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Rotating a touch into sector ETF's with high IV relative where its been over the past 52-weeks, 6 months ... . Here's one whose IV is at the top of its 6-month range: IYR. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 44% Max Profit: $335/contract Max Loss: $265/contract Break Evens: 71.65/78.35 Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit, if I can get a fill here. Here's the graphical representation of the setup: {image}
No fill by close and wasn't going to chase. Will try again tomorrow at open.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #298
  • Oct 27, 2016 10:13pm Oct 27, 2016 10:13pm
Off on vaykay for a couple of weeks after tomorrow ... . Will post if anything "earth-shaking" happens. There are those "little elections" happening in November ... . Those might be "interesting" ... . Happy trading, all!
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #299
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:07pm Oct 28, 2016 7:07pm
As I'm packing, loading stuff up into the car, yada yada, my phone dings. It's an alert to tell me that VIX has broken 16.5 ... . Premium selling time! Lol.

Opening: IWM Dec 9th 123.5/126.5/108/111 iron condor for an .89/contract credit. I probably could have gotten more if I'd been patient, but places to go, things to see ... .

Opening: SVXY 72/74 short put vert for a .87/contract credit. Another one I could have gotten (quite a) more for if I'd done a little price discovery and been patient ... .

Will look to take both off at 50% max.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #300
  • Nov 3, 2016 8:55pm Nov 3, 2016 8:55pm
Boy, what an "interesting week" to have taken a vacation ... . Oh, well ... . The market will be here when I get back ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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