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  • #261
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:42pm Oct 14, 2016 9:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Yep. That's the play in those. I've been watching WFC because it might get cheaper at some point,......... I dunno, BAC, maybes?
IF you think WFC will recover to $50 or better, there are some cheap long-dated verts with good r:r.....I think you are right that there could be better entries for long WFC positions though. I am already in BAC call spreads as noted above somewhere....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-14_1938WFC1.png Size: 70 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #262
  • Oct 16, 2016 3:00pm Oct 16, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}IF you think WFC will recover to $50 or better, there are some cheap long-dated verts with good r:r.....I think you are right that there could be better entries for long WFC positions though. I am already in BAC call spreads as noted above somewhere.... {image}
I had a watchlist of financials for a very long time to play for the "upcoming rate hike." The "upcoming" has been greater than my attention span, unfortunately ... . Will have to hop back on the financial watching train.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #263
  • Oct 16, 2016 3:04pm Oct 16, 2016 3:04pm
Speaking of watching:

Watching: GDX -- watching pricing on 25-45 DTE short puts, 21 strike and below (long-term support). Of course, that correlates basically with /GC 1250, so if that doesn't hold, I'll revise my notion of whether to get in on those.

Watching: XOP -- watching pricing on 25-45 DTE short puts, 32 strike and below. Here, the binary event is Nov OPEC meeting. Look to enter on oil weakness if these guys don't follow through on output cuts (my money is on "ain't happening").

Earnings: IBM, UAL, NFLX -- tomorrow after market close. I'm likely to only play NFLX. UAL and IBM's IV's are weak sauce. I'll look at setups later, but it looks like the 1 SD short strangle, Oct 28th expiry is paying more than 2.50 credit/contract ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #264
  • Oct 16, 2016 3:09pm Oct 16, 2016 3:09pm
What happens when you don't watch your watchlist: you miss opportunities. Here, in XLF, three good ones in late 2015, early 2016, and around Brexit:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XLF W.jpg Size: 185 KB


That being said, those same dips in XLF were also broad market dips, so if you were "in something" at those junctures, it was "all good."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #265
  • Oct 16, 2016 3:11pm Oct 16, 2016 3:11pm
VIX finished the week at >16, which is usually a signal for me to pile into something "broad index" (e.g., IWM, SPY, QQQ, etc.).

I can get into a 45 DTE IWM iron condor for just about a 1.00 in credit here for a risk of 2.00 (3 wide; 20 delta), so something to look at if VIX dares to stay up here ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #266
  • Oct 16, 2016 8:44pm Oct 16, 2016 8:44pm
WFC might need more than rate hikes.....but I heard time heals all wounds, we'll see....

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/14/inve...nts/index.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #267
  • Oct 17, 2016 12:12am Oct 17, 2016 12:12am
Quoting The Fool
WFC might need more than rate hikes.....but I heard time heals all wounds, we'll see.... http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/14/inve...nts/index.html
Like they say, "Opportunity lies in companies fucking up big time ... ." Well, maybe "they" didn't say that, but it's true anyhoo ... . Now the question is: How ... low ... can ... it ... go? (Atonement's a bitch). Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #268
  • Oct 17, 2016 12:18am Oct 17, 2016 12:18am
Omg. It's been eons. Decades literally. So long I can't remember. An ETF with a 52-week IVR of 100 and an IV of >35. (Drum roll, por favor; shots of Patron all around). You ready? Here it is ... E ... W ... W. With an IVR of 100 and an IV of 35, it beckons the premium seller.

Here's the setup:

EWW Dec 2nd 43.5/46.5/53.5/56.5 iron condor
Max Profit: $100/contract
Buying Power Effect/Max Loss: $200/contract
Break Evens: 45.50/54.50

The break evens even bracket support/resistance:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EWW D.jpg Size: 166 KB


How schweet is that?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #269
  • Oct 17, 2016 1:21am Oct 17, 2016 1:21am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
How schweet is that?
wait bro let me rain on your parade. Almost no O-interest in Dec2 now, so good luck filling....even with high IVR, the iv's are still pretty low. I think you can make a good outright long case on Trump loss/oil rally....EWW could stage a breakout over $55 in Nov/Dec
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-16_2312eww.png Size: 106 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #270
  • Oct 17, 2016 1:35am Oct 17, 2016 1:35am
the Dec/Jan $55 calendar calls b/e's from $50 to $60, maxP about 5:1 (same @ Nov/Dec is a nickel more....Nov/Dec $56 calls is 14c, etc....)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-16_2333eww2.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #271
  • Oct 17, 2016 1:56am Oct 17, 2016 1:56am
one more - there's a bargain out there at $56/57 Dec vert calls (or same price Nov $55/56).....OPEC meets Nov 30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-10-16_2350eww3.png Size: 69 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #272
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:23pm Oct 17, 2016 6:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}wait bro let me rain on your parade. Almost no O-interest in Dec2 now, so good luck filling....even with high IVR, the iv's are still pretty low. I think you can make a good outright long case on Trump loss/oil rally....EWW could stage a breakout over $55 in Nov/Dec {image}
True dat. Long story short: Open platform this a.m. Look at EWW option pricing in Dec 2nd expiry. Wide bid/ask and no way I'm going to get filled for the pricing I saw in off hours, even if I leg in one side at a time ... . Cue sad music ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #273
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:30pm Oct 17, 2016 6:30pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Speaking of watching: Watching: GDX -- watching pricing on 25-45 DTE short puts, 21 strike and below (long-term support). Of course, that correlates basically with /GC 1250, so if that doesn't hold, I'll revise my notion of whether to get in on those. Watching: XOP -- watching pricing on 25-45 DTE short puts, 32 strike and below. Here, the binary event is Nov OPEC meeting. Look to enter on oil weakness if these guys don't follow through on output cuts (my money is on "ain't happening"). Earnings: IBM, UAL, NFLX -- tomorrow after market close. I'm...
Thank goodness for small miracles ... . I was unable to put on either a NFLX short strangle or iron condor, as is my usual play with earnings before market close; I got busy with something in the last hour of the market (which is when I like to put those on -- at the last moment). The short strangle would have contemplated a $10 or so move up/down as the expected move, so between $90 and $110 (it traded around $100 all day) ... . AH: up like 20% or thereabouts, so no "poo pile" for me. Congrats to those who just played the thing for a bullish move ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #274
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:32pm Oct 17, 2016 6:32pm
hope you didn't sell any NFLX calls.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #275
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:34pm Oct 17, 2016 6:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Congrats to those who just played the thing for a bullish move ... .
lol....I had $105 and $110 Oct/Nov call calendars. Made money on the $105's and booked b4 the close, let the $110's run....fml....maybe it will fall back by Friday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #276
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:36pm Oct 17, 2016 6:36pm
Quoting The Fool
one more - there's a bargain out there at $56/57 Dec vert calls (or same price Nov $55/56).....OPEC meets Nov 30
tried filling these for 6c this morning, no dice, more like double that, I can wait....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #277
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:02pm Oct 18, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}lol....I had $105 and $110 Oct/Nov call calendars. Made money on the $105's and booked b4 the close, let the $110's run....fml....maybe it will fall back by Friday....
Negativo on the short calls ... . Very nearly pulled the trigger on a 90/110 short strangle ... . Lol. Kudos on the register ringing on the call side ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #278
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:04pm Oct 18, 2016 12:04pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}tried filling these for 6c this morning, no dice, more like double that, I can wait....
It's a bitch getting squat filled in that EWW "where you want" in the weeklies. That OI/volume ain't in the right place for me ... . Get that fixed, will ya? Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #279
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:10pm Oct 18, 2016 12:10pm
Covering: NE covered calls, basically for scratch. Rolling, short put selling,yada yada, I took home $18 per 100 shares/contract, most of which was made on the short put selling. Figured I'd reduce petro exposure and free up the buying power ... .

Opening: XLU Dec 2nd 45/48.5/48.5/51 iron fly for a 1.75/contract credit. Background IV isn't great, but it's at the upper end of its 52-week range. Basically, a risk one to make one: Max Profit: 1.75; Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 1.75; Break Evens: 46.75/50.25. I'll manage it at 25% max profit, like I would a short straddle.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #280
  • Oct 18, 2016 3:14pm Oct 18, 2016 3:14pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} It's a bitch getting squat filled in that EWW "where you want" in the weeklies. That OI/volume ain't in the right place for me ... . Get that fixed, will ya? Lol.
I filled a Nov18/Nov25 $57 call calendar for 2c....looking for EWW to be trading back above $55 post-election....2 centavos yo, I'm a stonecold baller...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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