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  • #145,521
  • Nov 21, 2016 8:00am Nov 21, 2016 8:00am
Currently short USD on GU/EU/AU. Two micro entries and one larger micro on GU. Waiting for NY to push it. Not sure if this thread requires FA outlook on every entry, if so i shall limit it to that only.
  • #145,522
  • Nov 21, 2016 8:32am Nov 21, 2016 8:32am
buy then... :-)
  • #145,523
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:03am Nov 21, 2016 9:03am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hi GB, for future reference, the new Simulation Mode on FXCM's Trading Station will let you view your charts even when we're performing routine maintenance on our servers over the weekend: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post9091680
Thank you...will check it out!
  • #145,524
  • Nov 21, 2016 10:26am Nov 21, 2016 10:26am
Quoting janpec1000
Currently short USD on GU/EU/AU. Two micro entries and one larger micro on GU. Waiting for NY to push it. Not sure if this thread requires FA outlook on every entry, if so i shall limit it to that only.
GU TPed, EU closed in loss and AU on BE. Dollar just opened further upwards target short term (next day/2).
  • #145,525
  • Nov 21, 2016 10:30am Nov 21, 2016 10:30am
Quoting janpec1000
Currently short USD on GU/EU/AU. Two micro entries and one larger micro on GU. Waiting for NY to push it. Not sure if this thread requires FA outlook on every entry, if so i shall limit it to that only.
Looks like USD is gaining strength again. Every bounce on EU is sold heavily.
  • #145,526
  • Nov 21, 2016 10:46am Nov 21, 2016 10:46am
Draghi speech.
  • #145,527
  • Nov 21, 2016 10:47am Nov 21, 2016 10:47am
@sisse,

no I wasn't suggesting a technical change in your outlook @ all- I was suggesting that all news we are currently trading (hikes etc) will be confirmed and ECB will be confirmed therefor the next leg will be TBD leaving xxx/USD in neutral outlook with chop technical.

Onto your other statement, I've already posted my outlook and expectations 3 times. As well as what I'm trading, regardless of your current outlooks or what I think they will be in the future.
  • #145,528
  • Nov 21, 2016 10:52am Nov 21, 2016 10:52am
UK PM May states that UK is looking to exit EU by March 2019, marking that on my fundi map
  • #145,529
  • Nov 21, 2016 10:55am Nov 21, 2016 10:55am
...Europe going home with all markets behaving in synch. Not much to update except for those looking for the micro zigzag in the Euro in play from the closing range.

Quoting Pharm0r
... ECB will be confirmed therefor the next leg will be TBD leaving xxx/USD in neutral outlook with chop technical. Onto your other statement, I've already posted my outlook and expectations 3 times. As well as what I'm trading.
OK I see. So your expectations are hikes DEC digested, ECB will announce the beginning of the QE end? ...what about FED hikes beyond?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,530
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:03am Nov 21, 2016 11:03am
Quoting sisse
...I hope it helps. sisse
Thanks Sisse, it helps as always.
I'm not shy on exchanging ideas or make questions, just post whenever i can but often come to thread when discussions are already gone.
I know your matrix and lately have been used to track currencies that way and then map on chart consequently but this time i have many open questions so posted for confrontation
  • #145,531
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:05am Nov 21, 2016 11:05am
Quoting sisse
...Europe going home with all markets behaving in synch. Not much to update except for those looking for the zigzag in the Euro in play from the closing range. {quote} OK I see. So your expectations are hikes DEC digested, ECB will announce the beginning of the QE end? ...what about FED hikes beyond? sisse
Also- I probably should not have suggested what I think YOU'LL be doing, as that's for you to decide, not for me to guess- so apologies there.

Yes on both ECB and DEC Hikes. For 2017 beyond, I'm cautious for several reasons which I will define...and I'll end with my current outlook.

Caution #1: HIKES and ECB tapering are still not confirmed- therefor I'm hesitant to start thinking about 2017 and beyond as I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch.

Caution #2: Trump is a wild card- he can be great or horrible for the economy (both us and world), so I feel as though we'll have to play 2017 in quarters rather than an "overall" outlook. If that makes sense.....basically with regards to fundamentals and game changers....the next 4 years seems like we will have to stay on our toes and not look too far ahead.

As far as my current speculation on 2017 and what I believe the market is expecting.... monetary policy will be pro USD via multiple HIKES...but if we've learned anything about the FED is that they like to talk more than act...so HIKES may come later and fewer. Fiscal policy I believe will be pro equities (not sure USD) via Trump because of Tax breaks and industry expansion....but that may only effect specific stocks and not equities overall. Again though, that's a "maybe" until we can ascertain just how far Trump will take his rhetoric. Since he likes to tweet, we can probably assume the next 4 years will hold many surprises and volatility.

ECB fiscal policy is WTF so long as brexit and numerous referendums loom, while monetary policy is pro Euro** due to tapering.
  • #145,532
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:09am Nov 21, 2016 11:09am
Here is nice fed watch probability expectations tool for rate hikes for upcoming meetings until November 2017

Currently at 95.4% for 14th of December

Also qte high excpectation for further hike during spring/summer 2017 .

Fedwatch tool
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,533
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:16am Nov 21, 2016 11:16am
Quoting sisse
... A great couple of week for currencies but for now is the traditional "choose your poison time" for those in Equities starting with the US closing session [check] for the early birds.
...and I will take that, clearing first target in US equities on the tick to fresh highs (ES 2190.xx for reference) , simple ride so far for those who missed the last chance on 'early' black Friday' las week train is gone risk wise ...all eyes in US equities before Thanksgiving as we have a fresh break in play. ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,534
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:30am Nov 21, 2016 11:30am
December question is answered unless wtf. But future hikes expectations will be played on fed language. Minutes, the ever changing dot plot,etc. right? So it seems to me the expectation to trade isn't necessarily how many hikes and when but rather what do you expect them to say about how many hikes and when, and when will they say it. That's why I am thinking for little traders like me (not holding multi month or multi year positions) it's possible to get a hold of tradable bullish eu swings (for example) in an environment that screams more hikes in the us. Same goes for QE in the EZ. If expectations are that Super Mario might say "it will never end" or to say "taper on boys!" anything in the middle is a flop to the other side and at least short term tradeable if not a push in the mid term.
  • #145,535
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:39am Nov 21, 2016 11:39am
Quoting goosebone
December question is answered unless wtf. But future hikes expectations will be played on fed language. Minutes, the ever changing dot plot,etc. right? So it seems to me the expectation to trade isn't necessarily how many hikes and when but rather what do you expect them to say about how many hikes and when, and when will they say it. That's why I am thinking for little traders like me (not holding multi month or multi year positions) it's possible to get a hold of tradable bullish eu swings (for example) in an environment that screams more hikes...
Agreed as well @ small traders getting bull swings in hike environment. EU hit 1.16xx off the lows after first hike as testament to this
  • #145,536
  • Nov 21, 2016 11:43am Nov 21, 2016 11:43am
No one cared to post a trading matrix apart from the random one in Sisse exemple .
I had a little aha moment reading his last comment .
Unfortunately , I am not at my desk today so it would be pointless to post my trading matrix in a rush via phone .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,537
  • Nov 21, 2016 12:12pm Nov 21, 2016 12:12pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Agreed as well @ small traders getting bull swings in hike environment. EU hit 1.16xxoff the lows after first hike as testament to this
Not really ... do you have a FA chart handy? I have been repeating many times we trade expectations first not fact. You wont be able to track FA especially rates and policy benchmarks in a static chart.

If you have your 'dots'' with annotation in a FA chart:

  1. We traded 1.05xx on first hikes 2015 (trade expectations, we got the fact).
  2. However, FED flopped massively on weak numbers concerns and announced no hikes until June back in March with EZ also marking the bottom in EZ macro numbers and the end of the Greek/debt crisis drama. We changed live the mid term outlook to Neutral back then.
  3. After we got the major flop in US numbers (that awful flop in GDP) that caught markets with the pants down that created the spike 1.16 on US slowdown concerns killing all expectations for hikes 2016.
  4. US numbers turned around straight away and it was clear it was a one-off and summer hikes got back in the table but it was already UK vote on sight (which was the first real risk event scheduled)...
  5. Brexit jitters killed FED June but Brexit vote killed July hikes on the knee jerk reaction and confirmed Europe especially UK mess for 2017 and beyond.
  6. This was a GAME CHANGER (check back posts for references and details in all these points) that shifted outlook back from Neutral to SELL ...first because of Europe mid term outlooks and second
  7. because once we cleared knee jerk reaction from Brexit and US numbers clearly and sharply started to point up ...we were back to normal flows with both DOLLAR* and EURO* aligned to the same direction ... the rest is modern story you can check in the last few pages of the thread until US elections
  8. Now we are 1100 ticks later back to the exactly same spot 1.05xx but with 3 major difference:

    1. Trump unlocked inflation and fiscal 'irresponsibility' expectations on the little we know from his economic plan making expectations 2017 hikes skyrocket in contrast with last year
    2. Brexit confirmed, dark clouds and storm ahead in the best case scenario from Europe that potentially can derail the EZ recovery but more importantly destroy the largest trading market in the world. Obviously UK will get the worst in almost all scenarios except in a complete collapse of the EU but the EZ and Euro will suffer the aftershocks.
    3. Obama is leaving the US with superb macro numbers in the US while the EZ is marching strong (strong for European standards obviously) to recovery especially in the Spain and Ireland alike ....



Point being Euro flawlessly traded first hikes last year but then FED expectations flopped massively kicking the can from March to Dec for the same play. Now we are in the same spot.

->How do you think expectations could flop in the upcoming weeks?

-> What do you think have higher odds this time another major flop or just continuation to complete the FED rate cycle and close the QE ECB cycle?

--> Which one will be a fundamental macroeconomic event that MUST happen sooner or later and which one will be just noise, kicking the can or an unforeseen game changer? ...

Choose you poison....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,538
  • Nov 21, 2016 12:30pm Nov 21, 2016 12:30pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... Choose you poison.... sisse
You are correct, thank you for pointing it out. No chart handy for post 2015 hikes so I had forgotten most of what you just stated (I didn't join this thread until late Aug). My current (and first) FA chart does not have anything pre October

1. Ive stated before, in the coming weeks expectations could theoretically flop with no hikes. That'd be a huge problem with most markets having already priced in the hike....(500 pip candle like the July FOMC 2015?)

2. I think higher odds this time are in favor of continuation, but not as aggressive as the FED has led on.

3. Fundamental macroeconomic game changer should be EU tapering and must happen eventually. Hikes being rolled back by FED would be one as well, but not in the picture at all. Hikes being postponed multiple times through 2017 (kicking the can) is likely imo. As shown today, currently ECB expecting to taper, but kicking the can for now.

4. Brexit has put a timeline for March via May's spokesperson. So looking to put GBP on the table for 2017 expectations of either postponing (good for GBP) or leaving (bad)
  • #145,539
  • Nov 21, 2016 1:08pm Nov 21, 2016 1:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...
->How do you think expectations could flop in the upcoming weeks?
-> What do you think have higher odds this time another major flop or just continuation to complete the FED rate cycle and close the QE ECB cycle?
--> Which one will be a fundamental macroeconomic event that MUST happen sooner or later and which one will be just noise, kicking the can or an unforeseen game changer? ... Choose you poison.... sisse
1- Expectations could flop on the following events: undershoot in key US data (GDP and NFP next week; dovish FOMC); End of QE from ECB and clear shift to fiscal policy; Deception from Trumpeconomic Plan (in terms of scope, timeframe and constraints to freetrade and foreign investors).
2- I'm more inclined towards completion of FED rate cycle and close of QE because of the healthy and sustainable US economy and, from the other hand, to Europe to close the gap with US on Monetary Policy by switching to fiscal policy.
3- Rising rate must be a done deal for US.
I'm looking for your comments to improve my/our understanding. Thanks!
  • #145,540
  • Edited 2:07pm Nov 21, 2016 1:52pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You are correct, thank you for pointing it out. No chart handy for post 2015 hikes so I had forgotten most of what you just stated (I didn't join this thread until late Aug). My current (and first) FA chart does not have anything pre October 1. Ive stated before, in the coming weeks expectations could theoretically flop with no hikes. That'd be a huge problem with most markets having already priced in the hike....(500 pip candle like the July FOMC 2015?) 2. I think higher odds this time are in favor of continuation, but not as aggressive...
I would only recommend to split the Brexit play from the macroeconomic / monetary plays. Although they may and will crossover at some point in the future, markets like always (you can also see from the debt crisis drama the same pattern) will stand aside while populist politicians play the 'we are the only almighty Empire in the world card'.

--> On the brexit front. Lets make it this long to have it for future reference and we don't have to repeat what are the expectations on this front.

In a nutshell: Is very simple market expectations wise.

Ignore all noise until Article 50 is announced and elections in France & Germany. Eveything else put on ignore. Markets wont play the BS game any longer as otherwise they will miss the next 4 years of markets in limbo with a bunch of random clueless politicians playing who's your daddy with the 5th (6th now after Brexit) largest economy in the world.

In detail: The UK government is a headless chicken on this Brexit fiasco.

They still don't have a plan, they don't know the cost neither the ramification of it. One day is hard brexit, next day is soft, the day after its lets burn books and educated people, the next one is lets go together, next one fck off Europe and anything starting with E, the next one is we will lead the world to the future, one day is perfect agreement the next day 'we will leave even the custom union', etc etc.

So far they need 35000 new beurocrats just for the basic services of what they need to cover from the EU institutions and no less than 5 years to untangle all the implications. The official cost so far (and we are not even 1/2 of the process) already exceed the supposedly savings of leaving the EU by 3 fold, etc etc etc in simple words forget about making sense...

Is all politics and it will get very aggressive from year's end onwards reaching climax on French/article 50 BS leaving Germany as the king maker for later in the year....

--> Once you separate Brexit form the picture you can make things easier for building your real macroeconomic / monetary plays.

In a nutshell:

  1. FED expectations DEC irrelevant.
  2. FED exp next year skyrocketing after FED dec (check inflation as a catalyst) and/or a mute ECB is fast continuation.
  3. Any other softer outcome in between is soft continuation.
  4. ECB tapering unlocks for the first time in +6 years the possibility of a long term bottom by late Q3/Q4 2017 ....


sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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