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AUD/USD

  • #99,761
  • Nov 20, 2016 7:07am Nov 20, 2016 7:07am
Quoting arigoldman
Undecided here..
That's not good at all
  • #99,762
  • Nov 20, 2016 12:40pm Nov 20, 2016 12:40pm
Aussie Weekly Technical Outlook

The overall trend is downwards. On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on a downside since March 2013 and has completed four price waves to the downside. It began a major retracement to the upside in January 2016 and peaked around 76.4 Fib level in April 2016. Between August and October 2016, the pair has been operating in a sideways mode but the down trend has been respected. Two weeks ago, a bearish engulfing candlestick made an attempt to breach the sideways mode. This was confirmed by a relatively large bearish candlestick last week. Should the downward drive hold, price action is likely to target the next support zone, which is around 0.71990. The technicals are in support of a further downward move. For more details on Aussie and a few other pairs, check weekly technical outlook.


I may be wrong. Trade safe.


KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #99,763
  • Nov 20, 2016 9:24pm Nov 20, 2016 9:24pm
I'm still in this thing, about 400pips now. This has been like the easiest trade ever. Ending Diagonals when they break, price usually moves fast and this instance has been no difference.

A little advise for you guys. AU will at least break retest the low of the A wave to complete an abc correction
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But before that AU will go into a consolidation soon giving another opportunity to short it down.
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This is how the market moves in waves.
  • #99,764
  • Nov 20, 2016 10:04pm Nov 20, 2016 10:04pm
Quoting Jfrancis
I'm still in this thing, about 400pips now. This has been like the easiest trade ever. Ending Diagonals when they break, price usually moves fast and this instance has been no difference. A little advise for you guys. AU will at least break retest the low of the A wave to complete an abc correction {image} {image} But before that AU will go into a consolidation soon giving another opportunity to short it down. {image} This is how the market moves in waves.
so pal, based on your theory, what will happen to the pair IF for some reason:

1) FOMC suddenly talks about no rate hike in dec
2) RBA confirms a hawkish stance
3) Trump's administration starts talking policies which spur panic selling in the USD

will wave theory still hold for this pair?
  • #99,765
  • Nov 20, 2016 10:30pm Nov 20, 2016 10:30pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} so pal, based on your theory, what will happen to the pair IF for some reason: 1) FOMC suddenly talks about no rate hike in dec 2) RBA confirms a hawkish stance 3) Trump's administration starts talking policies which spur panic selling in the USD will wave theory still hold for this pair?
Quoting Jfrancis
Its all about wave patterns. I'm not in the guessing business. I really hate people who write all those long descriptions as to why they think Aussie is going to do this or Aussie is going to do that and this person is going to say that and that person is going to say this. Then they look at 3 indicators, then they look at 4 more others things and come up with an essay underneath the chart explaining why they're buying or selling because they can read what the Fed is doing and they can read that Donald Trump has been elected president and etc. etc....
This is what I wrote and think about ppl trying to pretend that we can know what effects the news will have on trading
  • #99,766
  • Nov 20, 2016 10:44pm Nov 20, 2016 10:44pm
maybe Pauline will be the new President like Trump , they are very similar in most of their views..
http://www.news.com.au/national/poli...4e71037437bf7e
  • #99,767
  • Nov 20, 2016 10:48pm Nov 20, 2016 10:48pm
http://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...1f25efe42cc8b0
  • #99,768
  • Nov 20, 2016 11:06pm Nov 20, 2016 11:06pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
maybe Pauline will be the new President like Trump , they are very similar in most of their views.. http://www.news.com.au/national/poli...4e71037437bf7e

But why does that matter. Can you accurately place a trade based on who becomes president.
  • #99,769
  • Nov 20, 2016 11:15pm Nov 20, 2016 11:15pm
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} {quote} This is what I wrote and think about ppl trying to pretend that we can know what effects the news will have on trading
I think Ell3's question is coming from a slightly different angle. Maybe reread the question. I think the point would be there are things wave analysis can't predict - SNB decision in Jan 2015 being an obvious example. I get that you don't like news based traders and personally I am predominantly technical in my decisions but if you leave no room for fundamentals (News can report change or update in fundamentals) you are not considering the whole picture. Not respecting others views when different to your own is also not an approach I'd recommend and you have come across as a little 'wave analysis is the only way' in your posts.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #99,770
  • Nov 20, 2016 11:19pm Nov 20, 2016 11:19pm
It may inform you of some economical issues like underemployment , potentially affecting monetary policy and measures like lower interest rates or trade. Some of us like a fundamental and technical picture as part of our trading plan.
  • #99,771
  • Nov 21, 2016 12:25am Nov 21, 2016 12:25am
S gus just to make sure, if interest rates are raised in december by ellen and c, does it produce hawkish effects?
  • #99,772
  • Nov 21, 2016 1:02am Nov 21, 2016 1:02am
Quoting dab
{quote} I think Ell3's question is coming from a slightly different angle. Maybe reread the question. I think the point would be there are things wave analysis can't predict - SNB decision in Jan 2015 being an obvious example. I get that you don't like news based traders and personally I am predominantly technical in my decisions but if you leave no room for fundamentals (News can report change or update in fundamentals) you are not considering the whole picture. Not respecting others views when different to your own is also not an approach I'd...
@dab yep you got it.
@Jfrancis, i'm not being sarcastic on you or whatever, im genuinely interested to know how confident you are with wave theory or where you get the confidence in it from, especially when fundamentals change. i mean, since you've been trying to get the followers here to believe in your success with wave theory. we all have our own methods of trading but it's always good to gain insight from one another.
  • #99,773
  • Nov 21, 2016 1:13am Nov 21, 2016 1:13am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} But why does that matter. Can you accurately place a trade based on who becomes president.
Ask your self one question.

Do the charts direct the economy or are the charts a representation of the way the market participants respond to economic and political events? Which is which?

Just like all chart patterns they are only right 60 to 70% of the time and even less.

Economic events can change at any time.

Wave analysis is not full proof and it does fail.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,774
  • Nov 21, 2016 4:46am Nov 21, 2016 4:46am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Ask your self one question. Do the charts direct the economy or are the charts a representation of the way the market participants respond to economic and political events? Which is which? Just like all chart patterns they are only right 60 to 70% of the time and even less. Economic events can change at any time. Wave analysis is not full proof and it does fail.
Correct. Nothing is full proof in our market.
  • #99,775
  • Nov 21, 2016 7:15am Nov 21, 2016 7:15am
Closed my trade at 0.735 for 250pips. Feel like a retrace is coming.
  • #99,776
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:50am Nov 21, 2016 9:50am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Ask your self one question. Do the charts direct the economy or are the charts a representation of the way the market participants respond to economic and political events? Which is which? Just like all chart patterns they are only right 60 to 70% of the time and even less. Economic events can change at any time. Wave analysis is not full proof and it does fail.
No wave patterns are not fool proof. But, understand is that these patterns repeat themselves over and over again market. And depending which pattern is forming they are expected to behave in a certain way. It has nothing to do with any economical events that are happening. There may be some news that comes out that causes price to react to it but the overall forecast would remain the same.

You want to know how confident I am with wave analysis and how it works. Ill use my DXY chart as an example. Its always good to start with the DXY because you want to know the strength of the dollar.

This 1st chart was made on Jan 25th. Over 10 months ago.
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This is a current chart of DXY
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Just think to yourself how many economical changes have happen in the last 10 months! (Russia, China, the presidency, Kim Jong-un, etc...) Yet the overall outlook remains the same. Its simply because this is how patterns behave.
  • #99,777
  • Nov 21, 2016 9:52am Nov 21, 2016 9:52am
Can anyone else show a 10 month forecast using any other strategy out there.
  • #99,778
  • Nov 21, 2016 10:04am Nov 21, 2016 10:04am
Quoting Jfrancis
Can anyone else show a 10 month forecast using any other strategy out there.
I've been doing well predicted 102 for euro start of year using gann

twitter.com/gettoefl
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #99,779
  • Nov 21, 2016 8:49pm Nov 21, 2016 8:49pm
Quoting thewriter30
Hi there all...it's 1230pm down here So, from the daily chart i still can see this to happen... {image}
Amazing, I got this right to the pip and yet i did not trade it...
  • #99,780
  • Nov 21, 2016 8:52pm Nov 21, 2016 8:52pm
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Amazing, I got this right to the pip and yet i did not trade it...
that happens to me 90% of the time. If I pulled every trade I identified, I'd be a millionaire by now! But fact is, fear is a very real thing for us human beings so I'm not beating myself up for succumbing to fear. Better safe than sorry, grow the account slow and steady
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