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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #21,541
  • Nov 19, 2016 10:33pm Nov 19, 2016 10:33pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} This is a beautiful example of how you can see the break down in order flow to expect a deeper correction or change coming. The is does not always translates into a reversal of trend but you can see how you can use shorterm harmonics to accurately forecast entries and profit targets within the context of what is happening. {image}
i need more practise to mastering this, projection,. momentum and depth..
thank you mr pip, for your guidance.
have a nice week end
  • #21,542
  • Nov 20, 2016 6:43am Nov 20, 2016 6:43am
Quoting Wolves77
Hey Mr. pip, was just looking at the chart you did for sakeplz on the E/U, i took a long trade in that area where you were advising a short. just wondering if you could look at the trade and see if there's something im missing. price had been stuck in a range and broke to create a series of nsh, although short term orderflow had given a nsl, the overall bias for me was still bullish. price came back to test the area of structure and stall at .618. the one obvious reason to not go long was the increase in momentum from the bears, however on a time...
Hello, It's nice to see you around again. If you look at your own comments yous will notice that you spent a lot of time seeing bearish strength and waiting in an area that should have found support having lots of selling pressure to overcome.

That support area was attacked with strength so as for our basic expectation for areas of support and resistance to hold, that was going to be tough. You must also ask your self what expectation am I trading? Is it a longer term NSH or NSL? Or am I after an intraday NSH or NSL? In a situation such as yours and I do understand your trade, I would have been way more patient with that entry.

1. I needed to see way more weakness in the bears in general. They were showing strengthening. A strong clue is how they attack an area of S/R.

2. The intraday expectation was for a LH and another NSL. Being that the case and the bears showing strength, I would have waited for for that and looked for the long only after an attempt to complete an ABCD to the downside. The second leg needs to show less strength the the first leg AB. There must also be structure confluence at D. This would show me weakening to some extent.

3. I would trade it as an ABCD looking to breakeven at the 38% of the pattern and either take profit at the 61.8% of the pattern or extent it if price is accelerating into the 61.8 and it looks like the longer term expectation looked more promising.

All in all I don't think it was wrong of you to look for a trade up into a NSH in that area but I do believe you got a bit of tunnel vision and missed a few important clues price was very clearly telling you. Remember rotation shown be fast and strong. Consider how many candle went by before you got the rotation you were looking for. What does that mean when you compare and contrasts all of the price action in that area?

You expect for price to react in these areas of S/R because some traders will be taking profit while others like you are getting long but is the expectation for the area and what is price telling you? If you need me to put a chart together let me know and I will do it. Keep at it and no tunnel vision.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,543
  • Nov 20, 2016 3:30pm Nov 20, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello, It's nice to see you around again. If you look at your own comments yous will notice that you spent a lot of time seeing bearish strength and waiting in an area that should have found support having lots of selling pressure to overcome. That support area was attacked with strength so as for our basic expectation for areas of support and resistance to hold, that was going to be tough. You must also ask your self what expectation am I trading? Is it a longer term NSH or NSL? Or am I after an intraday NSH or NSL? In a situation such...
Hi mr. pip, thanks for the detailed explanation, very much appreciated. having thought about it some more, i think one area i still struggle with is deciding whether to follow short term or long term orderflow, i forgot to mention that the chart was a 3 min chart, so even the longer term bullish move was intraday, if price had continued bullish and created a nsh, this would have happened in about 2 hours tops. if other traders have a similar problem, maybe this is something that could be addressed in the upcoming webinar.
having said that, i like the idea of looking for the abcd and weakness in the cd leg before going long. thanks again and good luck for next week.
p.s. i would have added a smiley face but i can't find the damn thing, what happened to all those smiley faces.!!!!!
  • #21,544
  • Nov 20, 2016 5:42pm Nov 20, 2016 5:42pm
EUR/USD 5 MIN
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This is my analysis of the trade. Price had broken the HL, creating a NSL. Entry is shown on the chart and stop is above the LH, my expectation is for price to reach test the structure marked.

Sorry for the line on the chart, it help me visualize a lot better.
  • #21,545
  • Nov 20, 2016 6:23pm Nov 20, 2016 6:23pm
EURUSD [M5 Chart]

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Short Bias.

I am more than happy to wait for price to pullback higher into the 61.8 to 78.6 zone before looking to engage.
If price looks to hold and shows some decent bearish intent closer to the 50 level then I'll also look to enter short.

Waiting for a good opportunity.

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,546
  • Nov 20, 2016 6:27pm Nov 20, 2016 6:27pm
Quoting Sakeplz
EUR/USD 5 MIN {image} This is my analysis of the trade. Price had broken the HL, creating a NSL. Entry is shown on the chart and stop is above the LH, my expectation is for price to reach test the structure marked. Sorry for the line on the chart, it help me visualize a lot better.
Manually got out for -10 pip when price close above the LH.
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  • #21,547
  • Nov 20, 2016 6:35pm Nov 20, 2016 6:35pm
Quoting Masterrmind
EURUSD [M5 Chart] {image} Short Bias. I am more than happy to wait for price to pullback higher into the 61.8 to 78.6 zone before looking to engage. If price looks to hold and shows some decent bearish intent closer to the 50 level then I'll also look to enter short. Waiting for a good opportunity. Masterrmind...........
Good thing you waited, maybe I should had waited 2 hour after the market open before trading.
  • #21,548
  • Nov 20, 2016 6:44pm Nov 20, 2016 6:44pm
Quoting Sakeplz
{quote} Good thing you waited, maybe I should had waited 2 hour after the market open before trading.
Yes its up to you but if you wait until at least Tokyo has started you will usually see a bit more PA on the chart.

I'm specifically waiting patiently because I'm after the 20 to 30 pip trade in the one hit.

However, it is the start of a new week and I think I'll let some time pass by and more PA to unfold before I commit to a trade.

Lets see how the day unfolds.

ps. Just noticed that price has pushed up above the 50 Fib level so lets see where the bulls are taking price. Price then reversed and bounced up off the 1.06 handle and then has fallen over again to the short side. Taking entries very close to the 1.06 handle concerns me.

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pps. provided price remains under 1.06430ish level I will only be looking for shorts.

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,549
  • Nov 20, 2016 7:03pm Nov 20, 2016 7:03pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Yes its up to you but if you wait until at least Tokyo has started you will usually see a bit more PA on the chart. I'm specifically waiting patiently because I'm after the 20 to 30 pip trade in the one hit. However, it is the start of a new week and I think I'll let some time pass by and more PA to unfold before I commit to a trade. Lets see how the day unfolds. ps. Just noticed that price has pushed up above the 50 Fib level so lets see where the bulls are taking price. Price then reversed and bounced up off the 1.06 handle and then has...
EU

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If price does push up I'm expecting it to hit somewhere near the 61.8 level shown on the chart.

Lets see.

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,550
  • Nov 20, 2016 7:53pm Nov 20, 2016 7:53pm
Quoting Wolves77
{quote} Hi mr. pip, thanks for the detailed explanation, very much appreciated. having thought about it some more, i think one area i still struggle with is deciding whether to follow short term or long term orderflow, i forgot to mention that the chart was a 3 min chart, so even the longer term bullish move was intraday, if price had continued bullish and created a nsh, this would have happened in about 2 hours tops. if other traders have a similar problem, maybe this is something that could be addressed in the upcoming webinar. having said that,...
I actually took a short for a few pips on EU that same day and in the area of analysis.

But due to the NSL having been created I was only ever was looking for shorts and not longs.

Where Mr Pip has the suggested short entry shown on his annotated chart is where I was following live PA at the time.

However, I resisted the short from that zone purely because of the erratic PA over the previous 10 or so bars as the PA clearly shows relatively long ranging candles both bearish and bullish.

If you look at the direction formed by these 10 or so bars it is edging UP and for this reason I refused to enter short and decided to wait.

My entry was lower down after both a break of the lower channel (if you were to draw a trendline) and just under the mini-S created by these 10 or so bars (M5 TF).

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The entry was not really that ideal but the immediate momentum (visually at the time) was very bearish so I entered on the back of that.

I took a few pips and closed out the trade most likely due to the possibility of a bounce up from the handle.

Trade would have worked out very well for me but I'm already out so need to say what could have been although its nice to know.

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,551
  • Nov 21, 2016 1:25am Nov 21, 2016 1:25am
What was meant to be a short time away from the platform turned out to be much much longer.

Just returned now so no trades taken so far today.

Time to reset by reassessing the pair again.

Looking forward to some trades in either London or NY sessions.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,552
  • Nov 21, 2016 1:42am Nov 21, 2016 1:42am
Quoting Masterrmind
What was meant to be a short time away from the platform turned out to be much much longer. Just returned now so no trades taken so far today. Time to reset by reassessing the pair again. Looking forward to some trades in either London or NY sessions. Masterrmind............
EURUSD [M5 Chart]

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Now short.

Aggressive C-sell

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,553
  • Nov 21, 2016 1:57am Nov 21, 2016 1:57am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} EURUSD [M5 Chart] {image} Now short. Aggressive C-sell Masterrmind...........
Indeed aggressive, price is accelerating into your zone, I would hesitate on shorting there. Well I will cheer you on from the sidelines
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
  • #21,554
  • Nov 21, 2016 2:19am Nov 21, 2016 2:19am
Quoting Mr_Burns
{quote} Indeed aggressive, price is accelerating into your zone, I would hesitate on shorting there. Well I will cheer you on from the sidelines
Yes usually when I post the word "aggressive" it translates to a riskier type entry.

The 886 Fib level has been holding so lets see how the trade turns out.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #21,555
  • Nov 21, 2016 3:54am Nov 21, 2016 3:54am
Morning peeps.

Double retest and fail on the EURGBP, I'm short here with SL just above the old tops.

I'm long on the GBPJPY, expecting a return to the area of structure around 137.00 and then maybe towards a NSL.

EDIT: and out for 22.4 total
  • #21,556
  • Nov 21, 2016 5:24am Nov 21, 2016 5:24am
I'm out for the day. Just a couple of bits on top.

Attached Image
  • #21,557
  • Nov 21, 2016 5:43am Nov 21, 2016 5:43am
EUR/USD in a range:
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  • #21,558
  • Nov 21, 2016 8:10am Nov 21, 2016 8:10am
YM is not really moving a lot
  • #21,559
  • Nov 21, 2016 8:17am Nov 21, 2016 8:17am
Quoting evocpr19
YM is not really moving a lot
15 minutes until market open ... Draghi is having a speech after 1h 40 min.. he will probably bring some volatility.
  • #21,560
  • Nov 21, 2016 8:22am Nov 21, 2016 8:22am
Good Morning Traders,

Today we have the YM being more range bound then anything else. It looks like further consolidation and the sellers more aggressive on the accumulation front. The bias for the day is bullish with caution. The market is producing very weak NSH and significant breakdown the the order flow as the bears are able to correct very deep testing lows. So my outlook doesn't change much from Friday.

I don''t expect the bulls to be able to do anything significant to the up side while the bears should be able to further their advance and easily be able to continue to wear down the bulls and maybe even break the area heavily defended by the bulls around 18837. I will be looking foe longs as that is the expectation but I will not be against taking an aggressive short like last week in the same area of 1880. We will see what the open takes price. There is nothing much in the way of news so volatility should not be too crazy. Its almost time to battle so I will do my best to post in real time.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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