The Really Useless Thread

Perhaps taking a long here is a very radical idea. Not sure. Got stops.

Either way at the moment it's a 1.9 pip runner so I got that goin' for me.
Good weekend all.

Hi GB, for future reference, the new Simulation Mode on FXCM's Trading Station will let you view your charts even when we're performing routine maintenance on our servers over the weekend: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post9091680

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/2...121500627.html

Ultimately, Yamada said that higher rates will boost equity prices in the near term, as past cycles have signaled a boom in stocks and the economy.

"The early stage of a bull market can be accompanied by the initial rising rate cycle," she said. "It isn't until you get to about 5 percent that you start having problems."

More bond market education
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...118-story.html

http://research.tdameritrade.com/gri...20161116011887

" As James Mackintosh wrote rather cuttingly in The Wall Street Journal recently: (http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trum...nds-1479143922) "It has taken markets just four days to price in four years of President Donald Trump."

True?

"What's the aggressive trade? If you want to take the tiger by the tail, the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF(JNK) yields about 6.5% after a modest selloff. If you believe Trump and the GOP will lead to less burdensome regulations and thus lower default rates in energy and mining -- two sectors that are common playgrounds for junk bond offerings -- this fund is worth a look. And keep in mind that while theoretically conservative long-term bond funds like TLT have taken it on the chin, JNK has seen a much more modest decline of less than 2%."

maybe an interesting level, maybe not...

fiber from this time last year.....that's a 456 pip candle on 12/3/15, what happened?

Range break projections....for a reference..

http://news.forexlive.com/!/forexliv...3-dec-20151203

right, the ECB - how ya be PTL? - did you catch the top in High Grade?

no, haven't traded copper in a million years, whats the price?

mofo went parabolic. If Santa brings me a supercomputer and a new brain I will figure out how to catch these crazy ass moves and fade them from the very top. Still time though maybe, /HG prolly fall back to $2.10 pretty soon...

damn...I used to trade it a lot, loved it.....I was a huge bull back in the mid 90's, was always talking the bulls side, I think it was in 1998 or 1999, I was buying 100/120 call spreads for 10-20 cents....think I bought 3,000 in the end...with 300 DTE...all expired worthless...and well then we went to the moon...stopped trading it shortly there after...cant really even look at a chart for very long till the tears start ....

lol....well it will put on some trending moves, actually been beat down the last many years - spike the last few weeks I guess on big expectations of infrastructure stimulus. If you don't trade the futures you have FCX, but it has already done a double double in 2016....another one I missed.

say, any Palladium stocks out there? whats that stuff been up to?

It popped with copper. I would look at VALE maybe to catch a general rush into basic materials. But that is promised by Donald Trump? Is that the deal? Idk....strong USD works against something like (Brazilian) VALE, too.

https://www.thebalance.com/the-10-bi...s-2014-2339733

thanks fool, I'll have a look, if I sees anything interesting I'll let you know...enjoy your weekend bro, talk later...

lol....it's a write-off....just write it off....

http://www.businessinsider.com/lord-...6-11?r=UK&IR=T

I'm with you on this one.

On medium and long term I have no clear view now, ask for forum help.

*) Monetary policy

expected soft rate hikes cycle start next year from US (2/3) but Trump is a big question mark, on the subject he said everything and its opposite (ie: http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-t...len-1478724767)

ECB expected to extend QE (tapering voices but i don't think it will happen so quickly, an wen will start it will be a soft and slow process)

This point at USD raise over EUR but Trump on one side and tapering on the other are big open questions

*) Politics and fiscal policies

We have to wait first Trump acts, everything else is a speculation. Act on Trump's expected beahviour would be a bet at this stage (at least for me). We have to see how much he will go after his big electoral promises (duties,especially on China, first public debt owner, NAFTA, ambitious tax cut, etc) and his big black holes (foreign policy above all) plus, as a side note, i wouldn't dismiss so easily possible internal racial questions.

Honestly i have not the expertise or competence to fully predict effects on USA Economy but common sense suggest me that a 20/30 year step back is not a good thing in the long run...maybe i'm wrong or the markets have different ideas, anyway i need to get in synch before trading

French and German elections (Austria too). This is a potential game changer. Hyper-Nazionalists are expected in spotlight but under control, if not, more protectionism, isolationsim, EU internal conflict can only make EUR dive down

Italian referendum, not being a major concern himself, could led to early elections and bring in the mix M5S party: right now M5S is the first italian party in the surveys toghether with prime minister Renzi's PD (1% fork) and is no secret that M5S is anti-eu and has a long standing UKIP friendship so it is another potential domino piece in EU internal disruption

Brexit, in my eyes is an heavy shot at EU as credible institution. UK will suffer more than EU tough. EU could catch the chance to reform itself but sadly won't.

All considered, i would say EURUSD direction for mid term is potentially Short but with a lot of uncertainity, some Trump positions themselves, wath will follow his electoral promises, and unpredictable EU elections that makes me point to prudencial Neutral untill politics will be in driver seat next months on both ocean side.

Just as a note: all this revamping nationalisms (actual or potential) put me on alert for risk in any moment next year (more if coupled with US decreased foreign policy commitment and easy to predict Russian take over attempt on Ukraine an maybe some other eatern europe country )

For the next few weeks, being december rate hikes quite fully priced and not expecting sensational acts from ECB, i think above scenario is what markets are trading and starting positioning for. I'm not until i have some kind of clearer view.

Please correct me where i'm wrong and fill my gaps, thanks