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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,421
  • Nov 17, 2016 4:32pm Nov 17, 2016 4:32pm
...and we are rolling with clearing manually final target in YEN on the 1.101x a dozen ticks before final target but risk wont justify holding the Asian session any longer. Sisse is officially flat across the FX board.

Surprise about the silence in the last few hours especially with such a huge levels reached ... I hope we didn't got [any] too many casualties trying to catch the falling knife on the last leg down ....

Putting back Equities back on the trading board and Actively shifting aim to Equities from the European morning for the ECB/FED combo.... Superb month Quarter so far ...lets see if we can close the year in a high ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,422
  • Nov 17, 2016 4:39pm Nov 17, 2016 4:39pm
Quoting sisse
......lets see if we can close the year in a high ... sisse
high high high...I was shooting for SPX 2,190 for Nov 18, then up to 2,300 or better before the Dec FOMC, a bit higher thereafter before stall n' slide into 2017. It is (still) a Bull Market, Sir!

Re: TLT, I am shooting for $118 before the Dec FOMC, loaded those put spreads when TLT was trading ~$132 weeks ago...

re: XLF (Financials ETF), I am looking for $24 b4 the Dec FOMC....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,423
  • Nov 17, 2016 4:42pm Nov 17, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling with clearing manually final target in YEN on the 1.101x a dozen ticks before final target but risk wont justify holding the Asian session any longer. Sisse is officially flat across the FX board. Surprise about the silence in the last few hours especially with such a huge levels reached ... I hope we didn't got [any] too many casualties trying to catch the falling knife on the last leg down .... Putting back Equities back on the trading board and Actively shifting aim to Equities from the European morning for the ECB/FED combo.......
Very nice ride that is for both euro and yen . great call and flawless live exemple as usual .

risk/reward wise , I would like to play the reverso short term for today's roll , Buy lmt 1.061x , TP1 1.072x TP2 1.083x // STP 1.051x

I will post an FA map as soon as possible with comments and TA also if time allows , I am very busy lately .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,424
  • Nov 17, 2016 5:00pm Nov 17, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} high high high...I was shooting for SPX 2,190 for Nov 18, then up to 2,300 or better before the Dec FOMC, a bit higher thereafter before stall n' slide into 2017. It is (still) a Bull Market, Sir! Re: TLT, I am shooting for $118 before the Dec FOMC, loaded those put spreads when TLT was trading ~$132 weeks ago... re: XLF (Financials ETF), I am looking for $24 b4 the Dec FOMC....
why do u believe equities are going up to 2200 or close to 2300 over next few weeks if there is only light data, no catalyst, bond yields going up...just wish to understand your reasoning behind that...i belive in 2200 but 2300?
  • #145,425
  • Edited 7:46pm Nov 17, 2016 5:03pm | Edited 7:46pm
Quoting monkey@forex
{quote} why do u believe equities are going up to 2200 or close to 2300 over next few weeks if there is only light data, no catalyst, bond yields going up...just wish to understand your reasoning behind that...i belive in 2200 but 2300?
Because they can, and it's what they do. I will say 2,300 is an upper range target and I don't have anything in any spreads above 2,230....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,426
  • Edited 9:58pm Nov 17, 2016 8:05pm | Edited 9:58pm
Yay! ...1.058x at last! . Great example of your swing theory in action sisse, in reality am still only grappling with the concept myself but seeing IS definitely believing! ..thanks & great thread guys!

Here's my attempt at trying to gather the outlooks together under one roof, or a start at least. Someone posted something similar a while back and sisse had no problem with it so I'll assume it's ok again unless I hear otherwise . It's not complete as I started compiling it only recently and has a few holes in it but feel free anyone to fill them in and hopefully some might find it useful and can build on it further
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Outlook Table.xls   18 KB | 261 downloads
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,427
  • Nov 17, 2016 9:49pm Nov 17, 2016 9:49pm
A shout at @IMARICH1.... finally!!!! the second part of the mid term swing gone, whats next?

Thanks sisse for all your info and effort to educate. I did well. FINALLY!

It has been quite a journey. I was looking at a short term leg retrace to .085X to ext to .097X to complete the .064X leg. I actually had a map to post and then just said screw it when priced breached the .0610 level. I am looking at another leg to .04XX is this the finally mid term leg or long term leg? I am questioning as FA has changed somewhat now. I still believe Long Term has 1.02XX in site at least but not thinking parity now.

I was looking at a fade back to .085X to sell which would work if NEUTRAL OUTLOOK.
  • #145,428
  • Edited 5:21am Nov 18, 2016 2:34am | Edited 5:21am
Long here from 0585. Stop at 0445. Tp1 at 0857. Tp 2 at 0964. Tp 3 at 1120.
  • #145,429
  • Nov 18, 2016 3:06am Nov 18, 2016 3:06am
Quoting CommercialB
Yay! ...1.058x at last! . Great example of your swing theory in action...{file}
Well was never meant to be a theory or system or anything. The chat evolve from the conversation with IMARICH1 and others. The main aim was' force' / have a straitjacket in the analysis instead of having a machine gun approach with vey poor consistency....

--> Some (not all obviously) were wondering aimlessly, shooting at everything that moved, without knowing or understating why, where and especially when.... I just force a simple and consistent framework for trading during the iteration.

--> Lots of people had AHA movements in between not because of the 'theory' but they have managed to fill some of the gaps in their own trading system just by having a straight, tight, sustainable, repeatable framework despite on how you want to skin the cat in between ....It doesn't matter how or the technicalities of it, neither if you trade my exact trade or his, her or a random crowdsource level ...consistency and managing risk thats all the points I wanted to make....

Quoting IMARICH1
A shout at @IMARICH1.... I am looking at another leg to .04XX is this the finally mid term leg or long term leg? I am questioning as FA has changed somewhat now. I still believe Long Term has 1.02XX in site at least but not thinking parity now. I was looking at a fade back to .085X to sell which would work if NEUTRAL OUTLOOK.
Did you change outlooks?, Have you update maps,? did you map the next potentials swings? did you evaluate the risk on those options? are their worth it? what about timing?

...mid term flirting to cross to 'red area' (monentum), have expectation change? what are market exceptions right now?, ....only expensive tickets available in the mid term, isn't? How do you trade that? ....short term do we have bottom set already? ...

...what is the extreme (short term) to the top and bottom (if you answer yes in the prev ?), more importantly can you spot the 'flip'?...is it worth to fade it? ...

...check back for retrace, reversal, frustration for reference if you think is a retrace ...check momentum plays if you think is a clean sweep in a exhaustion move down ....for both when and in what flows? ...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,430
  • Nov 18, 2016 3:24am Nov 18, 2016 3:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} For your reference, we updated outlook in Sterling* a couple of weeks ago to neutral after the Court decision. There is a few other follow ups. But basically US stole the thunder for a few weeks after Trump. Expecting things to get noisier (a lot noisier) for the end of the year while the populist government will go in a full PR rampage before the turbulent next year.... {quote} sisse {quote} Outlooks 8 out 10 times only change for fundamental reasons not on purely technical ones. We are in rate differentials fundamental value ..we need...
Ah okay did not see that post. It makes sense, neutral.
  • #145,431
  • Nov 18, 2016 4:00am Nov 18, 2016 4:00am
Quoting IMARICH1
I am looking at another leg to .04XX is this the finally mid term leg or long term leg? I am questioning as FA has changed somewhat now. I still believe Long Term has 1.02XX in site at least but not thinking parity now. I was looking at a fade back to .085X to sell which would work if NEUTRAL OUTLOOK.
Well done riding the leg! Please don't get me wrong, not meant as an insult but one thing comes to mind here on your last paragraph, something that Sisse has posted a couple of times when reaching extreme levels. "dont be a dick for a tick". We reached extremes at the moment. Looking mid term, when ECB starts to talk about tapering, this would be a bad thing for your prospects of a deeper EURUSD. Of course extending QE would mean a deeper EURUSD but we also have the dollar to think about. Trump has to prove himself the coming months as the new president so any screwups in the beginning of his career might mean a weaking of the dollar, so a rise in EURUSD.

Plus, what if FED hikes (something that has been digested 95% already by the markets) and ECB decides to announce tapering starting in March? Or what if even FED delays a hike? I think I'll personally keep my hands off EURUSD for the time being until we have more data.
  • #145,432
  • Nov 18, 2016 5:23am Nov 18, 2016 5:23am
hi guys ,

A BIG THANKX TO SISSE AND TO MEMBERS OF THE THREAD ...


for me its not still the extreme we are in neutral outlook that really doesn't mean we had the bottom indeed we are in expensive tickets zone which will get flirted +/- 200 pips retrace is not a big deal right now .... 15% trades of midterm swing closed near 1.061x rest 10% will be trailed or the t/p will be hit @ test of the low of 2015 ...

holding trades from august with a lot of chops in between made my nerve system more strong .... i was wrong many times in the flow but was managing "RISK" the way i learnt here was awesome ...

waiting for sisse, chester's, imarich map for the short term flow + the last leg of the midterm flow .... will tally my map with the maps by the senior members ...

we all will be learning here every now & then and thankx to those spammers who didn't flooded the thread... and once again thankx a lot to the members of the thread ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,433
  • Edited 8:12am Nov 18, 2016 7:53am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting goosebone
Long here from 0585. Stop at 0445. Tp1 at 0857. Tp 2 at 0964. Tp 3 at 1120.
Here is the map I've been trading and I've posted numerous times....now combined with the bull side (purple)- I haven't chewed it down to flip zones etc for this thread, however; mofu'ers should understand it. The bear leg is complete (a perfect mofu trade by the way, 1 to 100, 50 to 200), and we are at the extreme of an older bull leg....which is also a last chance mofu as I like to call them. My middle for this neutral trade is the middle of the bull leg 1.0949 (outside to middle in neutral outlook)

Technically, this bull leg still targets 1.2228 so long as a new low isn't formed.

edit: added weekly neutral map, short to mid term. Although some will argue the neutral is a short term outlook, the mid term technicals will trump short term techs, therefor a midterm technicals will work on a short term outlook. Not unlike how a daily technical resistance holds more power than an hourly. That would also suggest that the stops and tp's should be of midterm size as opposed to short term size. In my opinion- the short term and midterm techs are close enough on this map that the problem is not stops or tp's but timing with FOMC. My opinion is such that any trade taken between now and FED will be subject to the same regardless of stops/tps/techincals. Almost a dice-roll if you will.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: map.png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: map2.png Size: 60 KB
  • #145,434
  • Nov 18, 2016 8:11am Nov 18, 2016 8:11am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Here is the map I've been trading and I've posted numerous times....now combined with the bull side (purple)- I haven't chewed it down to flip zones etc for this thread, however; mofu'ers should understand it. The bear leg is complete (a perfect mofu trade by the way, 1 to 100, 50 to 200), and we are at the extreme of an older bull leg....which is also a last chance mofu as I like to call them. My middle for this neutral trade is the middle of the bull leg 1.0949 (outside to middle) Technically, this bull leg still targets 1.2228 so long...
Nice charts and kudos for riding it down.
Transposes well into the trade management method described by sisse here. (although i know a long here may not fit with Outlook neutral depending on one's map) Meaning if eu reaches your 09x target (tp1) and comes back but makes no LL and doesn't stop you out, you can reload for better r:r. Rinse, repeat. It's the way I'm looking at it although slightly different levels. I'm only mixed on whether I've A) jumped the gun since mofu shows an entry here is prudent but Price entry is not evident and news is coming. And B) since that's the case I'm looking to catch a big fish with a big boat in a rather small pond if eu just bounces a bit only to continue on to larger midterm targets south. But hell, if that's the case as long as I'm not over leveraged I'll live to give it another shot from lower.
  • #145,435
  • Nov 18, 2016 8:15am Nov 18, 2016 8:15am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Nice charts and kudos for riding it down. Transposes well into the trade management method described by sisse here. (although i know a long here may not fit with Outlook neutral depending on one's map) Meaning if eu reaches your 09x target (tp1) and comes back but makes no LL and doesn't stop you out, you can reload for better r:r. Rinse, repeat. It's the way I'm looking at it although slightly different levels. I'm only mixed on whether I've A) jumped the gun since mofu shows an entry here is prudent but Price entry is not evident and...
agreed!! read my edit. 100% in line with your thoughts on that. i think to play this, if it goes my way that I'll pull all or most before FED regardless of whether TP is hit or not...much like the elections. A bird in the hand...
  • #145,436
  • Nov 18, 2016 8:24am Nov 18, 2016 8:24am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} agreed!! read my edit. 100% in line with your thoughts on that. i think to play this, if it goes my way that I'll pull all or most before FED regardless of whether TP is hit or not...much like the elections. A bird in the hand...
I guess I was looking to position early (perhaps too early 0520 will let me know ) for post news. And as I'm writing that it doesn't sound so brilliant. So if we get up to my tp1 I will try to determine "when we are" in the move with regard to news. Til then I'll pretend it is a totally brilliant plan

@hoom did you take 0610?
  • #145,437
  • Nov 18, 2016 9:34am Nov 18, 2016 9:34am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I guess I was looking to position early (perhaps too early 0520 will let me know ) for post news. And as I'm writing that it doesn't sound so brilliant. So if we get up to my tp1 I will try to determine "when we are" in the move with regard to news. Til then I'll pretend it is a totally brilliant plan @hoom did you take 0610?
lol, let it develop- it hasn't even been a day
  • #145,438
  • Nov 18, 2016 9:37am Nov 18, 2016 9:37am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} lol, let it develop- it hasn't even been a day
In larger macro sense yes, but micro term we are opening 520 target as we speak. So short should do fine. This is important micro structure, becouse it validates 520 target possibly even today, and if we do stay bellow 550 till market closes, weekly opens valid target bellow parity (excluding any decent pullbacks in between). Interesting day lets see how it plays out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 06751d026c4347c2ba4c259602c837c3.png Size: 60 KB
  • #145,439
  • Nov 18, 2016 9:41am Nov 18, 2016 9:41am
Quoting goosebone
@hoom did you take 0610?
Yes , and by the way, the new flip short term IMO is 1.073x .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,440
  • Nov 18, 2016 9:45am Nov 18, 2016 9:45am
short term - took a long near 1.057x target 1.084x ....
Re-Incarnated
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