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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,381
  • Nov 17, 2016 4:50am Nov 17, 2016 4:50am
Quoting Earleone
For the traders interested in Oil. It is news from Norwegian economic newspaper translated with google translate. https://translate.google.com/transla...-text=&act=url US will be in little need to import oil when this field is up running. It is huge.
We are in middle of Oil/commodity price war, i would be doubtful of any inputs like that until they are fact check confirmed with pumping in progress. Any info like that can scare the competition for what it could be pushed out. We have seen before "findings" that turned out to be either completly false on size upwards or even wells that were suppose to be dry and suddenly sprung up coincedently just to fit the proper narative.
As far as importing goes forget about that, that has changed completly since last few years, US is now in active energy war with Russia and few other Oil producers and for next few years we will see exporting scheme expanded not importing. Consumption might increase and imports might trickle upwards too, but in general scheme of Oil price and general impact on world economy its the exports that have largest impact especially from country with capacity like US.
  • #145,382
  • Nov 17, 2016 5:00am Nov 17, 2016 5:00am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} We are in middle of Oil/commodity price war, i would be doubtful of any inputs like that until they are fact check confirmed with pumping in progress. Any info like that can scare the competition for what it could be pushed out. We have seen before "findings" that turned out to be either completly false on size upwards or even wells that were suppose to be dry and suddenly sprung up coincedently just to fit the proper narative. As far as importing goes forget about that, that has changed completly since last few years, US is now in active...

Yes, Agree to that. I found the original article from Business insider in english http://www.businessinsider.com/usgs-...r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,383
  • Nov 17, 2016 6:55am Nov 17, 2016 6:55am
Uneventful European morning session with all markets in sync.

Reports coming for NY. Short term and simple choose your poison time in the Dollar with soft TA plays for the next couple of weeks.

If anybody wants to jump mapping the flows for the next micro leg now is actually the time for those 'learning' the ropes to jump in or anybody to keep the thread in synch with the market for that matter...

Hints:

How and what point to track in a map to fade a retrace?
How and what point to track to play a retrace?

Is it worth it? What is the risk? micro flip? Micro extreme and targets?...

How do you time that map with upcoming news? Does it matter for the flow? Or momentum? Or we may got a'game changer'?....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,384
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:12am Nov 17, 2016 7:12am
Quoting sisse
Uneventful European morning session with all markets in sync. Reports coming for NY. Short term and simple choose your poison time in the Dollar with soft TA plays for the next couple of weeks. If anybody wants to jump mapping the flows for the next micro leg now is actually the time for those 'learning' the ropes to jump in or anybody to keep the thread in synch with the market for that matter... Hints: How and what point to track in a map to fade a retrace? How and what point to track to play a retrace? Is it worth it? What is the risk? micro...
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Here is my view...imo worth risk if USD flops today, but I will trade it via UChf..It is short term Outlook and of course doesn't matter for the main direction.
PVSRA
  • #145,385
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:49am Nov 17, 2016 7:49am
Just fumes left in my opinion ~150-200 pips.

Technically I think a test of 1.057x is a given, so no longs planned until there as it will not go down on a first attempt without some massive momentum. The timing for that would have to be either before or @ FED meeting as hikes are already priced in. As far as shorts for continuation, here for a slow grind to 1.057x or higher at 1.084x and extension to 1.097x...but I see the most likely scenario being a slow grind down with little retrace.

The one worth watching though- is if the FED wiffs and doesn't hike...almost the entire market is priced for a hike (dollar, yen, euro, bonds...) except for equities which seem to want to hold out for the very last second. If the FED wiffs I'd expect fireworks with S&P hitting new highs immediately, bonds recovering as money flows out and into equities, dollar dropping like a rock and carrying the entire board with it. Will be a crap ton of money to be made....

Other then that, boring trading inbound until FED, at which point I'd expect a neutral outlook for EU, continued buy for dollar & UJ, neutral or soft buy for equities (can we ever go sell realistically? lol).

Don't have anything for gold or oil unfortunately.

I'll draw some maps up this weekend
  • #145,386
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:56am Nov 17, 2016 7:56am
Quoting sisse
Uneventful European morning session with all markets in sync. Reports coming for NY. Short term and simple choose your poison time in the Dollar with soft TA plays for the next couple of weeks. If anybody wants to jump mapping the flows for the next micro leg now is actually the time for those 'learning' the ropes to jump in or anybody to keep the thread in synch with the market for that matter... Hints: How and what point to track in a map to fade a retrace? How and what point to track to play a retrace? Is it worth it? What is the risk? micro...
My view... The last sharp leg has shifted the ST range imo
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  • #145,387
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:59am Nov 17, 2016 7:59am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-d...6-11?r=UK&IR=T "Last week, before the election results, Bridgewater predicted stock markets would plummet if Trump won the election. " ...why are ANY hedge funds left in business? Those assholes are being replaced by automation same as the coal miners. And how hard is it to understand that starting multiple trade wars will not be so great for the US economy?...
well bridgewater is largely a systematic hedge fund (and one of the biggest really). these predictions are just their pastime where management wants to show they have a view. but they trade systematic macro and are very model/data driven.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #145,388
  • Nov 17, 2016 8:28am Nov 17, 2016 8:28am
Eyes on NY.... tracking 1.076x in the Euro for the prev conversation.... Details later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,389
  • Nov 17, 2016 9:25am Nov 17, 2016 9:25am
Very heavy Euro struggling to raise its head above water after the opening range. We may not even get that last soft micro retrace if Europe goes home losing the handle... Not much to do do across the board but wait for US Equities to pop to complete the move and carry the Dollar with it...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,390
  • Nov 17, 2016 9:46am Nov 17, 2016 9:46am
Quoting Pharm0r
except for equities which seem to want to hold out for the very last second. If the FED wiffs I'd expect fireworks with S&P hitting new highs immediately, bonds recovering as money flows out and into equities, dollar dropping like a rock and carrying the entire board with it.
I'd suggest the opposite would occur. A Fed whiff would fly in the face of the overwhelming consensus, would be a vote of no confidence in current/expected economic and political conditions. A volatility event. You would see stocks drop, safe haven bonds recover, but the effect would be probably short-lived - another btfd, what else?

But I expect the Dec FOMC will give us a 25 bps hike and the market reaction will be identical to last Decembers: a market rally for Santa and a slide in Q1 2017.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,391
  • Nov 17, 2016 10:13am Nov 17, 2016 10:13am
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  • #145,392
  • Nov 17, 2016 10:47am Nov 17, 2016 10:47am
Quoting The Fool
But I expect the Dec FOMC will give us a 25 bps hike and the market reaction will be identical to last Decembers: a market rally for Santa and a slide in Q1 2017.
To be clear, you mean a rally in dollar index (so EURUSD bearish) followed by a reversal?
  • #145,393
  • Nov 17, 2016 10:48am Nov 17, 2016 10:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I'd suggest the opposite would occur. A Fed whiff would fly in the face of the overwhelming consensus, would be a vote of no confidence in current/expected economic and political conditions. A volatility event. You would see stocks drop, safe haven bonds recover, but the effect would be probably short-lived - another btfd, what else? But I expect the Dec FOMC will give us a 25 bps hike and the market reaction will be identical to last Decembers: a market rally for Santa and a slide in Q1 2017.
We agree on a btfd regardless, and also agreed on what will most likely happen
  • #145,394
  • Nov 17, 2016 11:14am Nov 17, 2016 11:14am
Good chart Goose, showing the heavy Santa effect. I am pretty sure Janet Yellen would not want to piss off Santa.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,395
  • Nov 17, 2016 11:31am Nov 17, 2016 11:31am
Quoting Pharm0r
We agree on a btfd regardless, and also agreed on what will most likely happen
well, as noted above, I'll be putting some skittles on a negative reaction to the Dec FOMC/Dec 19 EC combo.....not so much because I think that will occur, but because the reward:risk for being right on that will be quite phat, imho....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,396
  • Nov 17, 2016 11:45am Nov 17, 2016 11:45am
....and boom goes the dynamite ....

Quoting sisse
{quote} Clearing 1.078x target in the Euro right on time for the European opening.....
EURO -> 1.122x[check] (Strong R) ----> 1.111x [check] (Resistance) ----> 1.096x. (FLIP)[CHECK]---->1.078.x [check] (Support)---->1.064x [check](Strong).

We didn't get that final tiny retrace but thats a bit greedy after this fantastic ride....

1.064x tested and we have GAME, SET and MATCH !!!! in the Euro. Flawless ride in a homerun play. Well done all that rode all or part of it. This time I know there is quite a few in the thread. Very well done all. I hope most enjoy or learn something during this fantastic ride.

Only two points to wrap up pretty much all conversation open in the thread:

  1. Expectations first ...facts later.
  2. For those who asked/doubted why is so hard to translate rates (RMT) or macro factors in an 'after the fact' chart is because if you only check back the the day of the actual news in a historical chart the correlation wont necessarily show the flows neither when expectations were entered in play.

Tip...START using a FA CHART (for those interested check in some old images i my profile for examples of one). Mark that FA charts with notes. Write your comments, Write your ideas, Write YOUR expectations (even if wrong later), WRITE MARKET expectations (even if you didn't got it on time in some cases). Pin the Major News/Reports and Game Changers of the flows before...read, digest, analyse ....it will take a LOT of effort and time ...you can thank me later buying me a beer later.

A shout at @IMARICH1.... finally!!!! the second part of the mid term swing gone, whats next?

@ Pharm0r ...break check on that last conversation...

Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. Euro in a very bearish close triggering imminent break down alerts [check]...
@Fisher755
Quoting sisse
-->...., Forget about everything else except timing. ... call "timing map" . .. Are you trading expectations? ...Think like an economist/investor: Lets assume you are trading the full RMT leg. Y... Would you agree with this statement "Euro will be trading around the 1.06xx by DEC 2016?"
Market has spoken ...now is all clear....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,397
  • Edited 12:08pm Nov 17, 2016 11:52am | Edited 12:08pm
Nice run. Awesome to watch it real time. Had my chance to jump in late (as PTL said, 1.13 was a gift) but messed it up by jumping out early. Each time I do it that way I get one step closer to slaying my inner chicken. Any lost opp. on that is made up for by watching you guys (imarich1) doing it right. Congrats!
  • #145,398
  • Nov 17, 2016 11:58am Nov 17, 2016 11:58am
Quoting goosebone
Nice run. Awesome to watch it real time. Had my chance to jump in late (as PTL said, 1.13 was a gift) but messed it up by jumping out early. Each time I do it that way I get one step closer to slaying my inner chicken. Any lost opp. on that is almost made up for by watching you guys (imarich1) doing it right. Congrats!
EU was just an example. You were green and you learned something this is the most important. There are many charts with nice setups every week.
In time with expirience it becomes easy. I have much room to improve in this field too.
PVSRA
  • #145,399
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:00pm Nov 17, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} EU was just an example. You were green and you learned something this is the most important. There are many charts with nice setups every week. In time with expirience it becomes easy. I have much room to improve in this field too.
Word.
  • #145,400
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:07pm Nov 17, 2016 12:07pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Word.
For example Cad pairs might be nice tomorrow.....
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PVSRA
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