Price-Structure-Order flow | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies

"Price - Structure - Flow" 1,489 replies

Trading Strategies Using Price Action & Order Flow 187 replies

MT4 Order Pending Order/Order Modify Issue 1 reply

Domino's Price and order flow trading 1,400 replies

Attachments: Price-Structure-Order flow
Exit Attachments

Price-Structure-Order flow

  • #61
  • Nov 16, 2016 7:21am Nov 16, 2016 7:21am
Update on WTI - Long:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 86 KB

This market is now showing some promise of reversal as the daily chart has now created a higher high. As I stated earlier, I was premature in my entries (as seen here), but oddly enough now that I look at it in this light, I see that my entries probably would've been placed in the same location anyway. So I got lucky in that I am already positioned. But I still anticipate a retesting of these most recent lows, and the position is still at risk as price has not yet risen sufficiently to move my stop closer to the market.

Patience!!
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #62
  • Nov 16, 2016 9:38am Nov 16, 2016 9:38am
Looking at another possibility for a long trade on the EUR/JPY market:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 69 KB

The weekly chart has been consolidating near a 4 year low. This week, price has broken out of that range and closed on the daily chart. Price is now retracing back to the supply area (now turned demand area) where buyers overwhelmed the sellers. I have highlighted the area where I am watching to see if price produces a buying signal somewhere inside this area. Or if price will push back through this area and re-enter the range.

I will update when I see something worth looking at...for now, this goes on the watch list.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #63
  • Nov 16, 2016 10:05am Nov 16, 2016 10:05am
Update on GBP/USD - Long:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 72 KB

Buyers are struggling to hold onto any gains after rising out of the bottom. Seller's, while still weak, are none-the-less persistent, and continue pushing down on price and may push price down into the area where most longs (including me) have their stops. I have moved my stop on all positions now as you see here to lock approximately 160 pips. Should we get hit here at least we will have a small profit.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #64
  • Nov 16, 2016 11:58am Nov 16, 2016 11:58am
Update on EUR/USD - Short:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 82 KB

Another day, another pull back then continuation...Stop moved to lock 300+ pips of a 440 pip open gain.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #65
  • Nov 16, 2016 12:35pm Nov 16, 2016 12:35pm
A word about "Price Action Signals"

USD/JPY is showing us a great example of why I discourage people from looking at or engaging with "price action signals" or candle stick patterns, which have become so popular among "naked trading".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 25 KB

In this screen shot you can see where price came into an area I was watching to see if price might turn and retrace. Clearly price didn't do that...and I didn't lose any money either because I was waiting to see a clear change in the potential order flow. In the first instance a PA signal, known as a "dark cloud" presented. This is a signal many traders hang their hat on. As you can see it was completely ineffective. Then the next signal known as an "inverse hammer" which is supposed to indicate exhaustion...again failed miserably.

Why did these signals fail? Because taken as they are taught...as "price action signals" they completely ignore the truth of the market and what moves it. Orders and order flow moves the market...NOT price action. In fact price action is the RESULT of order flow, NOT the cause of it. Looking at these two signals, in real time, with the understanding of order flow one can draw the following conclusions:
Dark Cloud

  1. Buyers have stalled or may be taking profit, causing the resulting bearish candle. However, more buyers may be waiting at the bottom of the last bullish candle.
  2. Sellers don't seem to have enough dominance to push prices to close below the last bullish candle.
  3. Indeed when that area was tested, more buyers stepped in over the next 24 hrs and pushed prices to new highs.
  4. Any new (most likely retail) shorts where stopped out creating an even more exaggerated move higher.

Inverse Hammer

  1. Same story with the buyers as the previous...most likely profit taking, but this time the selling did test the bottom of the last bullish candle.
  2. Again buyers responded, even more quickly this time, and within 18 hrs had pushed price to even higher highs.
  3. Also any new shorts attempted were again stopped out causing more acceleration in price over the following 24 hrs.

When one learns to understand and "see" the order flow even inside individual candles one can learn and understand where the "true" opportunities exist and how to take advantage of them. Do they ALL work? Of course not...not because order flow doesn't work, because one's ability to "see" is always limited, or just wrong. Or perhaps something unexpected happens...like Brexit, or the Swissy unpegs, or Donald Trump wins the Presidency.

@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #66
  • Nov 16, 2016 1:01pm Nov 16, 2016 1:01pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} So here is a challenge to you...what pattern do you see developing in price AFTER those large candles form? Not "price action pattern" but what seems to happen in price AFTER those liquidation candles have played out? Look specifically 1-5 candles AFTER those big candles are done. Lets see what your answer will be...take your time and respond when you think you have it figured out.
Challenge has been accepted. I was going to post what I figured out but I will post it now in morning after analyzing all aspects and as you said, by seeing both sides of the market.
The post on "Candlesticks Patterns" is awesome revealing many hidden facts why these signals have failed. You are devoting more time to this thread even more than readers, I promise I would not let your sacrifice waste.

One personal question, I have feelings, your birthday was there in last days?
  • #67
  • Nov 16, 2016 2:53pm Nov 16, 2016 2:53pm
Quoting aazishhunain
{... , I have feelings, your birthday was there in last days?
Thanks for the sentiment, but my birthday was a few months ago.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #68
  • Nov 16, 2016 6:52pm Nov 16, 2016 6:52pm
Some great posts Don, subscribed.
Good Trading
  • #69
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:36pm Nov 16, 2016 8:36pm
Quoting DonPato
Update on Gold - Long: {image} In keeping with my previous post, I will move through this step by step as to understand: Trend: The larger charts are showing the start of a bullish trend. The Monthly chart has produced a higher high, and I am anticipating a higher low to form some where int he area where price currently is ...
Actually since July there were three lower highs and four lower lows on monthly chart. It was one higher high during very short spike. Not sure why you are so bullish on gold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUMonthly.png Size: 18 KB
  • #70
  • Nov 17, 2016 2:06am Nov 17, 2016 2:06am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} So here is a challenge to you...what pattern do you see developing in price AFTER those large candles form? Not "price action pattern" but what seems to happen in price AFTER those liquidation candles have played out? Look specifically 1-5 candles AFTER those big candles are done. Lets see what your answer will be...take your time and respond when you think you have it figured out.
Here is what I figured out:

Quoting DonPato
{quote}I'll have to wait and see how far this liquidation move goes, and what the price looks like at the end of this move.
Price showed weakness at the end of liquidity which means price would retest the area from where the move was originated and continue to move upward to make a lower high on Monthly. Initially trend was up and everyone was anticipated that trend would continue so place their stops below previous higher low. But when price broke the level, all these stop orders plus retail traders' short orders created large bearish candles. After that traders who were short from the highest high started to take profit and also retail traders thought of resumption of original trend that created some liquidity and bullish liquidity candles formed but second white large candle showed weakness and then price retested the level form where move was originated. A lower high was created on Weekly chart. We can also enter in trade from here till next level clearly showing on weekly chart.

Quoting DonPato
{quote}However, this weekly chart has now put in a higher low AND a higher high, thus waiting for a retest of the last bearish push down might be a good strategy.
Then price reached a weekly level, market became indecisive, lower high created on monthly chart and continued to drop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDW.png Size: 56 KB
  • #71
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:54am Nov 17, 2016 7:54am
Quoting yg10
Actually since July there were three lower highs and four lower lows on monthly chart. It was one higher high during very short spike. Not sure why you are so bullish on gold.
Yes you are correct and those are clearly seen on the weekly chart...however what you have posted here is the monthly chart. That is where I am taking my trend clues from.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 47 KB

You can clearly see a higher high as formed and I am now anticipating a higher low to form...the $50,000 question is WHERE? I have placed a trade on right where price is currently...again...I admit that was a bit premature, and only time will tell if that was the correct decision. I'd say there is also the possibility that price could fall further and retest the area inside the wick of the last lower high. I will also be watching that area if this trade fails.

Could I be wrong and we get a new lower low...of course!! That is why this business is aptly named "speculation". In all this, we must always ask ourselves, "what is more likely to happen?" The daily chart underneath this monthly chart is showing that price has stalled and the order flow is balancing. Further, it is doing this right in an area where buyers resumed dominance in May, 2016. Whether or not this balance resolves in favor of the buyers or sellers, is anyone's guess. I'll let the "professionals" decide that, and trade what I see happen in real time.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #72
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:56am Nov 17, 2016 7:56am
Quoting aud
Some great posts Don, subscribed.
Thanks AUD, please feel free to participate as you see fit.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #73
  • Nov 17, 2016 8:08am Nov 17, 2016 8:08am
Quoting aazishhunain
Price showed weakness at the end of liquidity which means price would retest the area from where the move was originated and continue to move upward to make a lower high on Monthly. Initially trend was up and everyone was anticipated that trend would continue so place their stops below previous higher low. But when price broke the level, all these stop orders plus retail traders' short orders created large bearish candles. After that traders who were short from the highest high started to take profit and also retail traders thought of resumption...
You have correctly stated the obvious, but I was hoping for something a little deeper. What was it specifically, that make you believe the market was "indecisive"? You are partly correct in this assessment, but there is something deeper going on inside those areas...I am confident you will understand quickly. Think in terms of order flow...not in emotional terms like, "indecision" or "aggression". Those are human emotions, and will only serve to confuse you. Remember that order flow has only two states...balanced and unbalanced.

Look again, go deeper, look at multiple time frames...also remember the market is 3 dimensional...one time frame will not tell you everything you need to know. Look specifically at the area circled here:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 69 KB


Can you see the pattern?
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #74
  • Nov 17, 2016 8:17am Nov 17, 2016 8:17am
Thank you sir for your evaluation.

I will try my best to analyse the market deeply and to look what Other time frames are revealing in circled areas.
Indecisiveness = Balanced area
Aggression = unbalanced

Hope I'll figure it out as you are expecting. Thank you once again for your time and guidance.
  • #75
  • Nov 17, 2016 8:30am Nov 17, 2016 8:30am
Watching USD/JPY:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 69 KB

Price has moved into an area where I anticipated some selling to ensue. Indeed some selling has taken place and I suspect they are mostly profit takers. The intraday charts are showing lower lows, but buyers are still stepping in. However, the buying doesn't seem to be as "enthusiastic" as it was previously. In other words the buying order flow seems to be waning.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #76
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:12pm Nov 17, 2016 12:12pm
EUR/USD - Short:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 81 KB

We are approaching the take profit target on this trade. Approximately 50 pips to go. Stop tightened by another 30 pips.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #77
  • Nov 17, 2016 12:40pm Nov 17, 2016 12:40pm
USD/JPY - watch list:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 66 KB

Looks like the shorts are stopping out again, forcing the failure of another "dark cloud" formation...nothing to do but wait and be patient.
Attached Image

Also looks like the retail crowd is giving up trying to find a top and are now starting to pile on the longs...this is a good sign for a short opportunity to come soon.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #78
  • Nov 17, 2016 4:47pm Nov 17, 2016 4:47pm
EUR/JPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 76 KB

Well, price dipped into my target zone quickly, and just as quickly left. I didn't get a signal as price did a "touch and go". Oh well...you can't watch the market 24 hrs every day. This market is OFF the watch list for now.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
  • #79
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:01pm Nov 17, 2016 7:01pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} ~~ As you've noted, these area will develop large order flow and produce "big candles". So here is a challenge to you...what pattern do you see developing in price AFTER those large candles form? Not "price action pattern" but what seems to happen in price AFTER those liquidation candles have played out? Look specifically 1-5 candles AFTER those big candles are done. Lets see what your answer will be...take your time and respond when you think you have it figured out.
From your subsequent posts I do not think this is the answer you are looking for, but, price returns to where the large candle formed. (A large candle being one obviously much larger than the preceding candles.) So if price does not return to it in the next 4 to 5 candles, and moves away with further momentum through a series of candles, it will return sometime in the future.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 33 KB
Good Trading
  • #80
  • Edited 7:53pm Nov 17, 2016 7:36pm | Edited 7:53pm
Target Hit EUR/USD - Short:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 79 KB

Target achieved on this trade. All remaining positions exited for 517 pips.
@xxxx§|[::::::::::::::::>
1 trader viewing now