The Really Useless Thread | Page 7268 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,341
  • Nov 16, 2016 5:09am Nov 16, 2016 5:09am
Quoting sisse
...and I will take that in Yen. Clearing main final target with the test 109.6x, only leaving the extension for the 'just in case' but aggressively trailling after NY opening... Euro technically we have a new yearly low and the 1.07 handle as expected since Monday was knocked down for today's cut....session not over yet but the core of the flows are gone until NY. sisse

U/J bearish correction to kick in soon from 109.5-110 towards 106
69
  • #145,342
  • Nov 16, 2016 5:13am Nov 16, 2016 5:13am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I don't agree with your view regarding USD strenght. Now this is already a bit old news and this is exactly how most retail traders trade- buying USD now when most of the move already well underway. But let's see. Also depending on TF of course.

We are close to a new high testing the high from 2014- 2015 om USDX . Already trading above the high for 2016. Are qte sure we will see some retracement after broken. The question is when. By taking ratio from the wave March- July we was below before next retracement but if we take as new wave from the spike down the Presidental election we can go to 101.60 area. Fib 161.8 extension come in at 101.18 . Just hokus pokus magic lines. Is accurate less then 50% of the time. But what else we have to in forehand try to predict where it can turn.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXWeekly.png Size: 34 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,343
  • Nov 16, 2016 6:45am Nov 16, 2016 6:45am
Quoting PayTheLimit
got another one approaching also, 1.0052 in the USDCHF, seems like a decent spot to try selling some dollars... interesting things happen near this level from time to time... {image}
filled on these dumb swiss, lets see if this level has any turning power left, try for 9850...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,344
  • Nov 16, 2016 7:04am Nov 16, 2016 7:04am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} We are close to a new high testing the high from 2014- 2015 om USDX . Already trading above the high for 2016. Are qte sure we will see some retracement after broken. The question is when. By taking ratio from the wave March- July we was below before next retracement but if we take as new wave from the spike down the Presidental election we can go to 101.60 area. Fib 161.8 extension come in at 101.18 . Just hokus pokus magic lines. Is accurate less then 50% of the time. But what else we have to in forehand try to predict where it can turn....
ECB and FED. Maybe front runnig first and SH at the events...but imo more or less should do it.
PVSRA
  • #145,345
  • Nov 16, 2016 7:20am Nov 16, 2016 7:20am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} filled on these dumb swiss, lets see if this level has any turning power left, try for 9850...
why is your name paythelimit?
  • #145,346
  • Nov 16, 2016 7:30am Nov 16, 2016 7:30am
Very good last few pages. Quality posts, you guys are really showing that we can have a proper market conversation in these boards. The level of discussion is increasing by the minute ...keep it coming nice to read ...

----

For NY, profit taking on the making across the board. NY opening failing to play ball and we are set for the week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,347
  • Nov 16, 2016 7:38am Nov 16, 2016 7:38am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} read back to one of my first posts in the topic, i posted a link that touches on the length vs price. I believe it said the longer out the more sensitive. On phone or Id post it
thank you! :-) still have some questions though i will have to ask later...will be watching here but cant really respond due to having to work on torch...
  • #145,348
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:01am Nov 16, 2016 8:01am
Quoting glassblower
{quote} thank you! :-) still have some questions though i will have to ask later...will be watching here but cant really respond due to having to work on torch...
Agreed, I'm sure I will have more as I delve into this bonds book @fool suggested.

As I said, next for me is to explore bonds/equities vs currencies (which I understand risk is a large part there...ie safe haven currencies) and also I'm looking to delve into oil. One step at a time....really wanna finish this book first to get a firm grasp.
  • #145,349
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:06am Nov 16, 2016 8:06am
For me, looks like a good spot across the board to see a pull back. Mofu technicals are showing mini target on dollar hit, and major target on UJ- fundamentally the PPI miss may put the brakes on our momentum...

Not personally planning on an end to the leg until the beginning of December...so just looking to load more on a decent pullback (hundred pips or more)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollar.png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.png Size: 41 KB
  • #145,350
  • Edited 3:56pm Nov 16, 2016 8:27am | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} why is your name paythelimit?
Back in the day, lots of markets would stick at their daily price limits. Say Dec Cattle settled at 68.57, and the next day, we went up the limit early, say 200 points, the market would be 70.57 bid, no offers. So you would bid 57 on 5 say, or whatever you where trying to buy. Now if we where stuck there all day, and you wanted to buy, every time an order came to the pit, you would bid on it. After saying 57 on 5 like 100 times, you'd get bored with it and you might want to mix it up...you might say limit bid, or just limit...my favorite was, Pay the Limit. If we where limit down, you'd say..at the limit. These where bids to get more cars bought and take them home for the next day, provided we didn't come off the limit. If you where short, and you where trying to buy, and if the pool was large, and it seemed like we where not going to come off, you'd say...stuck on 5, in hopes that the brokers would take pity on you, and they generally did, cause then you owed them a favor.

When I went down to the floor, it was difficult to pay the limit to get long, cause there was nothing but downside. Say we opened at 9am, and when limit bid by 9:30, and you added longs at limit bid, even if the pool of buyers was big enough, you still had to sweat it till we closed at 13:00. And then you had to sweat the next days open. But the old timers told me, always pay the limit, or be a seller at the limit once you had a pool, the odds, where in your favor of an opening in the direction of the trend. Naturally, many times, the limit would not hold, and the trick was hitting the bids in the pool, before they where gone. I can tell you many a time of coming off the limit, and getting in quite a pickle. Then there was always the next day, where the buys coming back, and how much higher where they willing to pay. Anyway, trading limits was an art in of itself, and most guys where down there for the great bull runs, where sometimes you might go limit up every day for a week, or two weeks, say if there was a frost, or drought. Fortunes where made on 5 or 10 lot positions. Basically, it was never to high to buy or too low to sell.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,351
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:27am Nov 16, 2016 8:27am
PS, I'll look for some old charts later...bbl
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,352
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:45am Nov 16, 2016 8:45am
good story

"back in my day..."

I've watched those youtube videos of old school pit traders...just a big wtf in my brain

a favorite:

Inserted Video
  • #145,353
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:59am Nov 16, 2016 8:59am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Fortunes where made on 5 or 10 lot positions. Basically, it was never to high to buy or too low to sell.
http://www.tischendorf.com/2009/07/0...a-bull-market/

Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a
fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, “You know, it’s a bull
market!”
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,354
  • Nov 16, 2016 12:33pm Nov 16, 2016 12:33pm
A very decent day for trading. As expected choppy Equities on the highs unable to 'pop' without a trigger in contrast with superb sessions in currencies and commodities.

On the Euro by crumbs we couldn't complete the leg with Europe but we are now officially in key major FA support.

1.061x ia key ECB rate differentials Support obviously in flawless time for the ECB/FED combo. Hikes dec are +95℅ already digested but ECB has the ultimate key for the rest of the year and a bit beyond.

Easy part of the moves gone in currencies gone. Expecting the FX board to tighten by next week.

Day is not over yet so tracking the closing session today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,355
  • Nov 16, 2016 2:50pm Nov 16, 2016 2:50pm
5 Things to Watch in Janet Yellens Testimony Thursday

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=615655
  • #145,356
  • Nov 16, 2016 3:50pm Nov 16, 2016 3:50pm
and we are rolling with a very bearish close in the Euro at the lows ....uff ...

There is very little in the calendar for the next two weeks and any uptick in inflation or US soft US reports will just add fuel to the Dollar.

Not much to see or do....with same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,357
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:02pm Nov 16, 2016 8:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}no, not necessarily - in fact, in many past periods of rate normalization (i.e., rising rates) in the US, stocks have rallied during and afterwards. You can't isolate the issue of risk in relation to one variable - that of interest rates. There are many other factors. For instance, one fear of rising rates is it will weigh down on the housing market, because mortgage rates will be higher. But we were paying >12% for a mortgage in the 80's and building twice the number of houses that we build today. Why?
baby boomers?
  • #145,358
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:25pm Nov 16, 2016 8:25pm
what does this "BOJ offers to buy unlmtd amt of JGBs (1 to 3yr maturity, yield 0.02% above prior close)"? any idea? Thanks!
  • #145,359
  • Nov 16, 2016 10:24pm Nov 16, 2016 10:24pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Then there was always the next day, where the buys coming back, and how much higher where they willing to pay. Anyway, trading limits was an art in of itself, and most guys where down there for the great bull runs, where sometimes you might go limit up every day for a week, or two weeks, say if there was a frost, or drought. Fortunes where made on 5 or 10 lot positions. Basically, it was never to high to buy or too low to sell.
Pay the Limit, exactly PTL, you can't always sell at the top or buy at the dead bottom of a btfd opportunity. I think I have heard these are the tendencies of losing traders, but no shortage of them regardless of the cause, myself included. This reversal on the US Election Nov 08 is getting to be a recurring theme in the btfd market, where there is tons of cash swashing around and no yield to be had anywhere except in equities. I think we will see an attack on the 2,200 summit and then continuation...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-16_2014spxxx.png Size: 83 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,360
  • Nov 16, 2016 10:43pm Nov 16, 2016 10:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}no, not necessarily - in fact, in many past periods of rate normalization (i.e., rising rates) in the US, stocks have rallied during and afterwards. You can't isolate the issue of risk in relation to one variable - that of interest rates. There are many other factors. For instance, one fear of rising rates is it will weigh down on the housing market, because mortgage rates will be higher. But we were paying >12% for a mortgage in the 80's and building twice the number of houses that we build today. Why?
could this have something to do with the prices for houses in the 80's being cheaper...therefor interest rates were being applied to lower balances and now housing prices are higher...there for lower interest rates for mortgages?
278 traders viewing now