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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,241
  • Nov 15, 2016 7:30am Nov 15, 2016 7:30am
I approve of every comment that happened in the last page.
  • #145,242
  • Nov 15, 2016 8:45am Nov 15, 2016 8:45am
You guys here are like a second family to me. I absofreakin-lutely love being here!!!
  • #145,243
  • Nov 15, 2016 9:06am Nov 15, 2016 9:06am
Quoting IMARICH1
The answer would be C(Check). We closed under the .0860 level. We have set the HIGH of MONTH but believe we can set the MONTH LOWER with .074X (Check)and .064X
GL all
  • #145,244
  • Nov 15, 2016 9:32am Nov 15, 2016 9:32am
I didn't gave my answer on sisse's last question just because on the midterm flow nothing has changed might get a test of .086x to 1.091x but on the short-term flow we are in sideline .. expecting inside bars on D1 until 18th ecb ... 
And didn't got any info about yesterday ecb ... No updates at all .. found nothing ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,245
  • Edited 1:03pm Nov 15, 2016 9:52am | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... Honeymoon for Trump will end, strangely not in the US, but in France deciding to push the world to the brink if they join the populist/nationalist US/UK party and vote for the Neonazis putting the West upside down ready for a debacle of major proportions... ... sisse
Front National party (FN) is not a Neonazis party - such parties are not allowed in France - but, yes, it's another stupid party (same hysterical old-fashioned national party unable to deal with the modern world as elsewhere).

They have been making the headlines for each election for almost 30 years, whatever it is : presidential, regional, MPs, Mayors elections etc. Always scaring but always loosing. They started with 10% of the votes in the 80s, then 20% in 2002, and they got around 30% at the latest regional elections that took place last December (3 weeks after the terraces and Bataclan terrorist attacks). For the upcoming presidential election, in May, they have roughly the same percentage according to the polls (30%).

So, yes, they will probably lead the first round of the french presidential election (perfect for the headlines) but, as always, they will loose the second one as it always happens in any elections that take place in the country. And this, because they are just rejected by 65%-70% of the population. Look at the french parliament, there are only 2MPs from FN party among the 577 members of the assemblee, just because they cannot win any second round. Why ? Because french electors forget their differences when a member of FN party reach the second round and vote all against him because their differences look tiny compared to the danger of making a FN Joe elected (as a comparison, nobody would have voted for Gary Johnson, useless vote). This party is by far too clivant to get one day an official mandate from the people. Don't forget in France, the political spectrum is very wide and one of the most varied in the world (if not the weirdest!), there are like

10%-15% of communists / extrem-left wing
20% socialists / left-wing
30% of moderate-rights politics
30% extrem-right wing / Front National

I know it may sounds naive to be so sure after what happened with the Brexit referendum and DT election but we are speaking about a 30%-35% Vs 65%-70% fight not about a 45% / 55% one.


This said, chapter 2, BUT :

The moderate-right Republican Party will hold the first round of its primary next sunday. A second round will be held at the end of the month. If Nicolas Sarkozy wins (not expected so far), it will be really a game changer because :

  1. He is seen as a nutter/populist as well, and if he faces Marine Le Pen - the FN leader - at the second round of the presidential election, it will be then very hard to predict what french people will do.
  2. Moreover, if he wins the primary, there is a guy Francois Bayrou - from the center-right who already said he will not accept the results and will go on his own : this could even prevent Nicolas Sarkozy from reaching the second round of the presidential election and let the door opened for socialists but, more importantly, for extrem-left politics (as socialists politics have become very unpopular among their usual supporters due to the current government) to face Marine Le Pen at the second round of the presidential election. In that case (FN Vs Extrem-Left), the result will be very hard to predict too.

In brief, a big part of french presidential election is in play the next 2 sundays. If Nicolas Sarkozy looses and Alain Juppe wins the primary (as it is expected), there will be very few surpises imo to expect from the presidential election next May.


Edit :
French president election rules

1st round : Every french citizen can stand for presidential election ; Are needed 500 signatures from (direct) elected people (mayors, MPs, etc.). Some politic parties do Primary elections, others no. There are always a couple of independent coming from micro-parties . At the end, you usually have to choose between 8 and 12 candidates the voting day.

2nd (and final) round : 2weeks later. Only the first two of the 1st round go to this round. Simple winner begins 5-years presidential mandate within 8-15 days.

  • #145,246
  • Nov 15, 2016 10:11am Nov 15, 2016 10:11am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Front National party (FN) is not a Neonazis party - such parties are not allowed in France - but, yes, it's another stupid party (same hysterical old-fashioned national party unable to deal with the modern world as elsewhere). They have been making the headlines for each election for almost 30 years, whatever it is : presidential, regional, MPs, Mayors elections etc. Always scaring but always loosing. They started with 10% of the votes in the 80s, then 20% in 2002, and they got around 30% at the latest regional elections that took place...
.. good to have that inside line, thanks!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,247
  • Nov 15, 2016 10:30am Nov 15, 2016 10:30am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Front National party (FN) is not a Neonazis party - such parties are not allowed in France - but, yes, it's another stupid party (same hysterical old-fashioned national party unable to deal with the modern world as elsewhere). They have been making the headlines for each election for almost 30 years, whatever it is : presidential, regional, MPs, Mayors elections etc. Always scaring but always loosing. They started with 10% of the votes in the 80s, then 20% in 2002, and they got around 30% at the latest regional elections that took place...
Very interesting. Thank you for that. Let's see what happens in this year of surprises.
  • #145,248
  • Nov 15, 2016 11:55am Nov 15, 2016 11:55am
With regard to OIL, the current bounce is it just because of noise from OPEC, then it will fade very soon or because of seeing economic opportunities boosted by Trump's presidency? If economy is growing, the demand for oil should follow, isn't?
  • #145,249
  • Nov 15, 2016 11:58am Nov 15, 2016 11:58am
Quoting Fadhl
With regard to OIL, the current bounce is it just because of noise from OPEC, then it will fade very soon or because of seeing economic opportunities boosted by Trump's presidency? If economy is growing, the demand for oil should follow, isn't?
I'm inclined to add war possibility and NAFTA includes oil
  • #145,250
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:14pm Nov 15, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting Fadhl
With regard to OIL, the current bounce is it just because of noise from OPEC, then it will fade very soon or because of seeing economic opportunities boosted by Trump's presidency? If economy is growing, the demand for oil should follow, isn't?
Was wondering about the reason for this bounce too.

And was also thinking the same about demand but maybe early for price increase for that reason.

Also I read about some rumors for 2 different candidates as secretary of energy for Trump where 1 is a oil billionaire ( Harold Hamm )
Maybe that can be some reason. Actually very unsure what moves it now.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,251
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:22pm Nov 15, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'm inclined to add war possibility and NAFTA includes oil
plus expectation of opec / we have just had a few rumours kicked out for 'cuts' ..... we trade the expectation right ? plus a few tech indicators turning on the bottom . 2 weeks until Vienna and 1 week until informal talk between SA and Russia.
  • #145,252
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:25pm Nov 15, 2016 12:25pm
Quoting nutts
{quote} plus expectation of opec / we have just had a few rumours kicked out for 'cuts' ..... we trade the expectation right ?
Yes, but the recent short term outlook on oil is SELL.
  • #145,253
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:35pm Nov 15, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting Fadhl
With regard to OIL, the current bounce is it just because of noise from OPEC, then it will fade very soon or because of seeing economic opportunities boosted by Trump's presidency? If economy is growing, the demand for oil should follow, isn't?
The support that held in oil was minor support, nothing special, but pretty huge bounce...not trading oil, but CAD pairs so checking it regularly...
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PVSRA
  • #145,254
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:44pm Nov 15, 2016 12:44pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Yes, but the recent short term outlook on oil is SELL.
...if you're quoting sisse then outlook is Soft Sell ..and I'd imagine he might add that such intraday or short term movements are getting you too close to the market ..
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,255
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:50pm Nov 15, 2016 12:50pm
Quoting glassblower
You guys here are like a second family to me. I absofreakin-lutely love being here!!!
We love you too!
  • #145,256
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:52pm Nov 15, 2016 12:52pm
...watch-out Euro triggering imminent break down alerts for the close, this one is to kill the lows of the year and handle ...

sisse


PS: @IMARICH1 and @Fadhl thumbs up ... you keep kicking ass...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,257
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:52pm Nov 15, 2016 12:52pm
shh he's here..
  • #145,258
  • Nov 15, 2016 1:06pm Nov 15, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting Fadhl
With regard to OIL, the current bounce is it just because of noise from OPEC, then it will fade very soon or because of seeing economic opportunities boosted by Trump's presidency? If economy is growing, the demand for oil should follow, isn't?
came across my feed
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  • #145,259
  • Nov 15, 2016 1:09pm Nov 15, 2016 1:09pm
Quoting sisse
...watch-out Euro triggering imminent break down alerts for the close, this one is to kill the lows of the year and handle ... sisse PS: @IMARICH1 and @Fadhl thumbs up ... you keep kicking ass...
Hike is priced in at +90% now so this is capitulation move and I guess you blink you miss apply in this case !
I am on to fade the move of the hike fact also in preparation for Taper talk on ECB speculation .

By the way , Market is/was looking far beyond Dec hike with more hikes next year til Trump won , now that USD is kind of stimulated by the promised fiscal policy and as we know that such policy without proper deficit management is going to backfire so I am inclined to trade inline with those expectations.
I try to not speculate on the matter .

looking for triggers next few sessions and I will apply the proper risk management this time without questionning my map .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,260
  • Nov 15, 2016 1:21pm Nov 15, 2016 1:21pm
So if bonds (red/green) lead the rest of the market, and more specifically equities (purple)- could it be reasoned that bonds are pricing a pretty damn large correction due for S&P? Timing wise- if you follow the flow shown (avg time passed between a drop in bonds followed by a drop in equities) it's lining right in line with Dec/Jan

much like last year- but bigger.
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