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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,601
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:05am Nov 14, 2016 6:05am
15:05 Currently preUS is rebuilding a gap downside for upcoming pit session. So preUS poor high (2555) could be skipped if eventually this new possible gap will exist at pit open. But in any case this action is not healthy. And for now I can only see emotion and lack of conviction in any direction. Only short coverings and liquidations of inventories respectively too short and too long.
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  • #1,602
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:34am Nov 14, 2016 6:34am
15:34 US pit opened with a very big gap downside from Friday low 25595 but with overnight inventories 100% short.
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  • #1,603
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:41am Nov 14, 2016 6:41am
15:41 Huge gap up at pit open for USDX

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-14_15-40-52_USDX.png Size: 22 KB
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  • #1,604
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:56am Nov 14, 2016 6:56am
15:56 Please have a look at the last weekly report daily chart in order to visualize current situation regarding the weak trend line supporting current action. If we still will have a market ruled by weak hands this trend line could hold (and it could also be a good place to put a long). But if some stronger hands will step in it will have no future: carry this information forward.
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  • #1,605
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:03am Nov 14, 2016 7:03am
In the meanwhile USDX is rallying to the DIC 2015 year high. Very very complex situation if GB will not follow it.
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  • #1,606
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:22am Nov 14, 2016 7:22am
16:22 Note that B period low reached thursday pit session low tagging it (and it is also round 2450). Plus we are only some pips above the GO / NO GO LEVEL given by the weekly distribution high at 24437. Current B period high is at HB.
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  • #1,607
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:26am Nov 14, 2016 7:26am
Quoting Lock
16:22 Note that B period low reached thursday pit session low tagging it (and it is also round 2450). Plus we are only some pips above the GO / NO GO LEVEL given by the weekly distribution high at 24437. Current B period high is at HB.
Tagged right now. And also tagging the trend line: watch out. Also a lot of single pips for B period.
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  • #1,608
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:39am Nov 14, 2016 7:39am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Tagged right now. And also tagging the trend line: watch out. Also a lot of single pips for B period.
16:40 As you see.. B period's single pips filled. Note the C period low at round 2450 and the B period low exactly tagging the go no go level 24437. Weak hands ruling this market for now.
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  • #1,609
  • Nov 14, 2016 8:04am Nov 14, 2016 8:04am
17:04 C inside period of B. Also D tagged the round 2450. Note current "b" shape of the composite profile preUS + pit US: meaning liquidation.
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  • #1,610
  • Nov 14, 2016 8:13am Nov 14, 2016 8:13am
A very important note is about GB future sessions (starting from tomorrow): whatever the result of current pit session and tonight upcoming Tokyo session if GB will open tomorrow below 2455 or above 2553 we wil have a huge issue regarding the 2 current GB triple pass gaps. If above 2553 we will have a 4 pass gap at 25415-2553 and a triple pass gap right here at 2455-24628 , if below 2455 we will have a 4 pass gap at 2455-24628 and a triple one at 25415-2553. In both cases it is very rare that such a condition could remain as so. So one of them or both should be revisited tomorrow or next days by a GB session.
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  • #1,611
  • Nov 14, 2016 8:35am Nov 14, 2016 8:35am
Quoting Lock
17:04 C inside period of B. Also D tagged the round 2450. Note current "b" shape of the composite profile preUS + pit US: meaning liquidation.
17:35 D failed below C balance.
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  • #1,612
  • Nov 14, 2016 8:51am Nov 14, 2016 8:51am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 17:35 D failed below C balance.
17:51 ..consequently back to the opposite side of C balance, as normal... Note that E period is the last one for London: day timeframe traders generally go flat at the last session bar before "overnight". Note also current E high at half back and E low at round number 2450: weak hands still ruling.
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  • #1,613
  • Nov 14, 2016 9:22am Nov 14, 2016 9:22am
18:22 F period high tagged B period high that is at a previous half back at 24805: note the automatic reaction there. Still weak hands everywhere.
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  • #1,614
  • Nov 14, 2016 9:27am Nov 14, 2016 9:27am
Quoting Lock
18:22 F period high tagged B period high that is at a previous half back at 24805: note the automatic reaction there. Still weak hands everywhere.
18:27 and punished as normal..
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  • #1,615
  • Nov 14, 2016 10:49am Nov 14, 2016 10:49am
19:49
"I" period low at open price 24888, F period low at GB close 24665, E period low at round 2450 and finally B period low at weekly bracket high 24437: all of them exact references. Also current gap downside still in place (25595-25113). If the move downside from preUS poor high (2555) was clearly a liquidation, current action is clearly a short covering.

I'm off, let's see what is going to happen during next GB session that, as previously written, will have to solve the double issue regarding the 2 triple pass gaps left by today session. Best L.
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  • #1,616
  • Edited 11:06pm Nov 14, 2016 10:13pm | Edited 11:06pm
16/11/15 TUESDAY 07:13 +1GMT (edited untill 08:06)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday GB session didn't solve nor the higher nor the lower TRIPLE PASS GAP. So today upcoming GB session, if it will open inside yesterday range, could only do the following:

  1. Solve one or both of them, meaning go and fill both 25413-2553 and 2455-2463 or only one of these two triple pass gaps leaving the other one in order to form an island reversal*;
  2. Solve nothing remaining inside yesterday GB session range (2463-25413);

If instead for what ever reason it will open outside yesterday GB range, I copy paste here what I wrote yesterday about this eventuality:

from yesterday post 1610... if GB will open tomorrow below 2455 or above 2553 we wil have a huge issue regarding the 2 current GB triple pass gaps.

  1. If above 2553 we will have a 4 pass gap at 25415-2553 and a triple pass gap at 2455-24628;
  2. if below 2455 we will have a 4 pass gap at 2455-24628 and a triple one at 25415-2553.

In both cases it is very rare that such a condition could remain as so. So one of them or both should be revisited tomorrow today or next days by a GB session.

Yesterday pit session only reacted with a short covering to the liquidation made by preUS: note in fact the "P" shape of the pit session and the opposite "b" shape for the composite profile preUS+pitUS.
The pit session left an ugly low tagging exactly at the pip the weekly bracket high (go/no go level) at 24437, while preUS left a very suspect poor high at 2555 only respected by pit session because of the presence of the new gap downside from Friday pit low (25595-2511)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-15_7-04-02_SESSIONS.png Size: 262 KB


*The following daily chart shows how an island reversal could develop in such a situation: it's only one of the possible scenarios and not the only one. In fact if it will be the lower triple gap to survive and not the higher one we could have exactly the opposite situation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-15_7-47-54_DAILY.png Size: 100 KB


This is an othe possible scenario where it is the lower triple pass gap to survive: the opposite situation. In my opinion this scenario looks less probable than the previous one. But it will the market, and only the market, to show which of them will prevale (if any).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-15_8-00-30_DAILY 2.png Size: 109 KB
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  • #1,617
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:09am Nov 15, 2016 12:09am
09:09+1GMT
GB opened inside yesterday GB range (2463-25413): so we are in the scenario where one or both of the 2 triple pass gaps should be filled (meaning 25413-2553 and/or 2455-2463). The only alternative will be a very strict balance of this new GB session where nor the top nor the bottom of yesterday GB range will be reached: not so probable considering the upcoming GB news and relative volatility.
The opening inside yesterday GB range means initial acceptation of it and eventually tests above and/or below it.
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  • #1,618
  • Nov 15, 2016 12:53am Nov 15, 2016 12:53am
Quoting Lock
09:09+1GMT GB opened inside yesterday GB range (2463-25413): so we are in the scenario where one or both of the 2 triple pass gaps should be filled (meaning 25413-2553 and/or 2455-2463). The only alternative will be a very strict balance of this new GB session where nor the top nor the bottom of yesterday GB range will be reached: not so probable considering the upcoming GB news and relative volatility. The opening inside yesterday GB range means initial acceptation of it and eventually tests above and/or below it.
09:53+1GMT (edited untill 09:55)
During the first test below yesterday GB range low 2463, the lower triple pass GB gap 2455-2463 has been finally removed. Note a lot of single pips for B period. For any meaningfull continuation downside we need to see price accepted below overnight low (Tokyo low at 24638) and below yesterday pit session low 24432. Note that an acceptation below Thursday GB session range high at 2455 could lead to a correction of the GB poor low at 2377.
If we will not find acceptance below those levels (yesterday pit session low, Thursday GB session high and today Tokyo low) we could experience a retracement inside yesterday GB range and eventually a correction also of the higher GB triple pass gap at 25413-2553: so watch out.
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  • #1,619
  • Nov 15, 2016 1:32am Nov 15, 2016 1:32am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 09:53+1GMT (edited untill 09:55) ... Note that an acceptation below Thursday GB session range high at 2455 could lead to a correction of the GB poor low at 2377. If we will not find acceptance below those levels (yesterday pit session low, Thursday GB session high and today Tokyo low) we could experience a retracement inside yesterday GB range and eventually a correction also of the higher GB triple pass gap at 25413-2553: so watch out.
10:32 +1GMT (edited untill 10:37) SORRY FOR THE EDIT!!

Both periods B and C closed below Thursday GB high at 2455, meaning acceptation of Thursday range. Also C was inside bar of B period, so we are warching now an attempted break below C balance. So we could aim at Thursday GB poor low at 2377. Note a lot of single pips for current D period and the minus development of B period left above C balance high and below A period low. Also remember A period high at yesterday GB open 24965 and D period high at round 2450: carry these information forward.
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  • #1,620
  • Nov 15, 2016 1:38am Nov 15, 2016 1:38am
Read again post 1619: very sorry for the edit!
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