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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #22,501
  • Nov 14, 2016 1:40am Nov 14, 2016 1:40am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
134.88 sell...unsquared candle....
With BOJ speech, is the yen not weakening?
  • #22,502
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:47am Nov 14, 2016 7:47am
We either make it to around 136.240 if we hold and pass this area maybe 139.93... on the downside 132.00 any which way I'm good. It's only Mmonday lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #22,503
  • Nov 14, 2016 9:09am Nov 14, 2016 9:09am
Quoting Quickiepip
We either make it to around 136.240 if we hold and pass this area maybe 139.93... on the downside 132.00 any which way I'm good. It's only Mmonday lol {image}
Nice analysis.
IMO there should be some sideways moves for a while.
Especially to the north side, I think we should expect some extended stop hunts. As a drop now would be easy money for the average trader.
  • #22,504
  • Nov 14, 2016 9:13am Nov 14, 2016 9:13am
I mean, as soon as a drop sentiment is created, we should expect a quick rise to 136 level and beyond.
A bigger resistance is at 138.90 if the upward move will be resumed.
  • #22,505
  • Nov 14, 2016 9:40am Nov 14, 2016 9:40am
Quoting yuddy
{quote} And that fortells what?
That (daily pinbar) should have foretold strong buy signal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,506
  • Nov 14, 2016 3:51pm Nov 14, 2016 3:51pm
  •  jmmn
  • | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Learning while making money... | 647 Posts
Quoting Mpt
Suspect 135.2 might halt it or at least correct down a little. Weekly moving average 25 - was associated with price capping at 188.5, stopped it at 163.5, then 159.8. Also just over 76.4 of 138.7 vs 122.6 Failure to even respond though, could mean a monthly driven large correction or a real sign of reversal.
And what is now your conclusion?
  • #22,507
  • Nov 14, 2016 5:49pm Nov 14, 2016 5:49pm
Quoting jmmn
{quote} And what is now your conclusion?
Well, it still climbs slowly in what appears to be a rising wedge. So, it either corrects down from about here (135.4) or it corrects up higher. I used the term "appears" wrt a rising wedge, but it can also morph into a rising channel (ie fallback is extremely minimal). Additionally, when folks see the words 'rising wedge' they usually think bearish. The real problem is that they can also be quite bullish, insofar as price is simply winding its way through resistance.

So, what's my conclusion? No idea. Just waiting. Still slightly favouring a downwards move
  • #22,508
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:10pm Nov 14, 2016 6:10pm
Never count the bears out... but if price keeps rising and holding over 136.50.. we might see a move towards 148.800ish at the 23.6 fib line by Christmas. My weekly charts are indicating a possible move up... Almost time to go long with a sweet tp of 148.00 if you don't mind the wait. OR you can scalp all the way to the top... it might be worth throwing a couple hundred on a couple of accounts and see how it pans out. Yen is doing better than it should, can't last even with brexit
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #22,509
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:31pm Nov 14, 2016 6:31pm
Yep, and in the long stretch 141.00 is the monster....P A waists no time getting through there...
  • #22,510
  • Edited 4:25am Nov 15, 2016 12:30am | Edited 4:25am
What concerns/intrigues me about these moves is that there is an almost reverse (mirror image) symmetry with the earlier moves from April 2011 and going backwards.

On or about March 3 2011, price fell to 122, from where it recovered to 140 (but the weekly average top was 138.6). Before that fall, price had topped at 135.5.

In the most recent event, price fell from 138.4 to 122. Price has so far recovered to 135.6

Before those events in 2011, it sat in a roughly 135/126 range for many weeks.

Using the backwards analogy, we sit around 6 Feb 2010 wherein-after price decayed to 126 over 4 or 5 weeks

Am probably reading too much into it all, but them's the coincidences thus far. And, more than likely, the coincidences end right here.

This is simply an observation
  • #22,511
  • Nov 15, 2016 7:46am Nov 15, 2016 7:46am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Yep, and in the long stretch 141.00 is the monster....P A waists no time getting through there...
This looks indeed like a one way ride
  • #22,512
  • Nov 15, 2016 9:00am Nov 15, 2016 9:00am
133.6 coming soon?
  • #22,513
  • Nov 15, 2016 9:14am Nov 15, 2016 9:14am
Quoting bshappens
133.6 coming soon?
Sorry to disappoint you, mate, but, although anything could happen in this market, I cannot see it coming soon. Wishful thinking...
I'd rather deactivate my Sell button for a while
  • #22,514
  • Nov 15, 2016 3:12pm Nov 15, 2016 3:12pm
  •  jmmn
  • | Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Learning while making money... | 647 Posts
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Well, it still climbs slowly in what appears to be a rising wedge. So, it either corrects down from about here (135.4) or it corrects up higher. I used the term "appears" wrt a rising wedge, but it can also morph into a rising channel (ie fallback is extremely minimal). Additionally, when folks see the words 'rising wedge' they usually think bearish. The real problem is that they can also be quite bullish, insofar as price is simply winding its way through resistance. So, what's my conclusion? No idea. Just waiting. Still slightly favouring...
Thanks, Mpt... Still favouring a downwards move? All the best! Jos
  • #22,515
  • Edited 8:38pm Nov 15, 2016 7:52pm | Edited 8:38pm
Quoting jmmn
{quote} Thanks, Mpt... Still favouring a downwards move? All the best! Jos
Answering honestly, my heart says that it's so overbought that it ought to correct down. In a similar way to the historical record i offered earlier. My brain says that it was in a rising and bullish channel, that it has just fallen back into for retest of the previous high. Going with the brain argument, it may be poised to make a very bullish move up - and the overbought stuff can be dealt with later. Just so long as the bullish move makes a new high. FWIW this is the 50% place of the move 122.6/ 148.4 , where it confirmed the brexit drop.

The earlier attempts at getting up failed at the (roughly) 76.4 and 61.8 levels respectively Compared with the overall and eventual fall to 122x.
  • #22,516
  • Nov 15, 2016 10:04pm Nov 15, 2016 10:04pm
It's been new high after new high since last week. its been oversold but you know it can be in oversold for a ton of pips. if 137.00 pops and holds we are going up. This is the last quarter from now until Christmas the move should be up.... it might dip for the big boys to make some money but the march up will continue for now... 149.990 coming up over the next few weeks
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #22,517
  • Nov 16, 2016 12:50am Nov 16, 2016 12:50am
I hate this dumb pair, that's for damn sure, but I'll try some shorts at 136.75, risk 100 pips. The trend has been down all year really, and perhaps we see some weakness into year end. I'll try for 130 or so...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #22,518
  • Nov 16, 2016 12:55am Nov 16, 2016 12:55am
Quoting bshappens
133.6 coming soon?
it looks like 146.3 coming sooner )
  • #22,519
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:28am Nov 16, 2016 8:28am
New support level at 134.30 might be tested, before we visit upper levels at 138.90, 141, 143.60
  • #22,520
  • Nov 16, 2016 8:33am Nov 16, 2016 8:33am
I wouldn't rule out a sharper correction southward to 132.75 neither as this seems to be a key level now.
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