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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,181
  • Nov 14, 2016 1:48am Nov 14, 2016 1:48am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Nice to have these last posts with the alternative bullish scenarios! Of course you may well be right, or at least more right than me, but maybe it's a bit too soon to say we've had a clean test of any monthly "resistance" (I assume you meant support) as there's another two and a half weeks left till the monthly candle closes, and on the weekly it still looks bearish to me with that last bearish engulfing. Also, while you're correct that ECB tapering does appear to be entering the arena for next year (and it's hard to know exactly...

Thank you for your answer, I was totally wrong with the dollar and I knew it, but I just wanted a plain explanation and your answer was perfect.

When I said resistance I was refering to support ... and with clean I refer to no single tick bellow the imaginary suport line but with a touch, in my case is a parallel line from a monthly pitchfork, don't bother if yours is different. Anyway it's hard to pick a monthly rebound.
Live and Keep Calm
  • #145,182
  • Nov 14, 2016 2:01am Nov 14, 2016 2:01am
I have some major resistance coming up in the USDCAD at 1.3575/85, doesn't look like much now...but I'm gonna try some shorts, most other pairs are no where near any big levels, so I cant really expect it to hold I guess, but I'm still gonna go on it...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,183
  • Nov 14, 2016 2:38am Nov 14, 2016 2:38am
...EURUSD, 1.0710 this years low, thus far...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,184
  • Nov 14, 2016 2:48am Nov 14, 2016 2:48am
Quoting PayTheLimit
...EURUSD, 1.0710 this years low, thus far...
chart is monthly candles, fiber really been a snooze last 2 yrs.....get the election jitters jumpin in Q1/Q2 I bet we could see new 10+ yr lows, maybe sub peepee
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-14_0045fiber.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,185
  • Nov 14, 2016 2:51am Nov 14, 2016 2:51am
Quoting sisse
...and clearing first target in GOLD with the test 1243.xx ... well done all (i know a few) that rode it from the election flow ... Watch-out Euro following through any minute as its literally hanging in v. thin ice ... sisse {quote} -> 1419.xx (Steel R) ----> 1315.xx (Strong R)[check] ----> 1245.xx (FLIP)[check] ----> 1216.xx (Support) ----> 1170.xx (Very Strong S)
...clearing main Gold target with the test 1216.xx ...simple part of the ride over too in Gold.
-> 1419.xx (Steel R) ----> 1315.xx (Strong R)[check] ----> 1245.xx (FLIP)[check] ----> 1216.xx [check] (Support) ----> 1170.xx (Very Strong S)

European opening completing legs from the election flow across the board.

Quoting PayTheLimit
I have some major resistance coming up in the USDCAD at 1.3575/85, doesn't look like much now...but I'm gonna try some shorts, most other pairs are no where near any big levels, so I cant really expect it to hold I guess, but I'm still gonna go on it...
hmm... why CAD right now mate? ... I think Trump unlocked 1.395x before a major decision making in CAD.

--> Canada is going to suffer a lot via Free TRAD/ NAFTA/ US protections uncertainty until the policy is clear. However, it will be one of the biggest winners worldwide as haven/ free trade / progressive policy for investment if the Trump/Brexit nationalism, backwards, no free trade views flops in the mid term (and they will if they go on that path, guarantee). We may not ever see above 1.40xx in our live time if that happens ....

In any case, GL, looks tempting but dont like neither the area nor the circumstances in both DOLAR and OIL to take shorts ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,186
  • Nov 14, 2016 3:32am Nov 14, 2016 3:32am
Quoting sisse
.....

  1. Gold ... a sharp but very short lived selloff to 1200.xx on a RMT play but brexit, europe and election will keep it in bid ...not my favourite flavour for today ....
  2. and finally DOLLAR also preemptively in its way...taking 96.6x [check] on the W close will via RMT will unlock a momentum play to 100.xx [MAJOR check] with intermediate stop at 98.4x till the FED actual hikes. ...

...and finally as widely expected especially after Friday a key area reached that have and will have implications across the FX board and beyond:

--> VERY IMPORTANT check DXY @100.xx in DOLLAR pretty much completing the RMT leg for DEC hikes.

...All eyes on the level for the rest of the year as exhaustion break will unlock 'uncharted in the last couple of years' maps in most currencies. There is nothing else to track on the dollar side

Market wise, hikes DEC jumping to nearly 95% after Trump as it seen inflationary at the least but more importantly further 3 major hikes 2017 jumping up a lot, still below 50% but a huge spike in the last month.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,187
  • Nov 14, 2016 3:35am Nov 14, 2016 3:35am
Quoting sisse
...clearing main Gold target with the test 1216.xx ...simple part of the ride over too in Gold. -> 1419.xx (Steel R) ----> 1315.xx (Strong R)[check] ----> 1245.xx (FLIP)[check] ----> 1216.xx [check] (Support) ----> 1170.xx (Very Strong S)
...watching for sub 12xx.xx, I want to trade the bounce...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,188
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:00am Nov 14, 2016 4:00am
is this a bfd?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italia...ferendum,_2016
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,189
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:46am Nov 14, 2016 4:46am
Quoting sisse
{quote} sisse PS: @hoom {quote} Why?...I am honesty surprise.... we'll wrap up the pending conversation later but don't really understand why did you flop in this one.
Hmm, I was thinking you took the low of several previous weeks in to consideration too and we had close above for them. But not for the week before where we had a clear close below. Not only the last. See it now Clear C . And market has spoken.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,190
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:06am Nov 14, 2016 6:06am
Guess Europe didnt feel like waiting for us in the West before taking the lows
  • #145,191
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:13am Nov 14, 2016 6:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
Guess Europe didnt feel like waiting for us in the West before taking the lows
dont worry we will sooner or later get a new low ..
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,192
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:09am Nov 14, 2016 7:09am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} dont worry we will sooner or later get a new low ..
Looking for it, looking to get a position in on NY open or Draghi speech. If not, oh well...will find another spot. Not much time or meat left for this leg...
  • #145,193
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:12am Nov 14, 2016 7:12am
Saving my energy as well this week, as it's the longest weekend I work over the year at my real job....will be putting in 30 hours just fri/sat/sun. On the bright side, I took next week off
  • #145,194
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:25am Nov 14, 2016 7:25am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... .... In any case, GL, looks tempting but dont like neither the area nor the circumstances in both DOLAR and OIL to take shorts ... sisse
thanks mate, just a level, decent R/R, I try for 1.3025 anyway....but not a lot of supporting factors I agree...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,195
  • Edited 7:42am Nov 14, 2016 7:28am | Edited 7:42am
got another one approaching also, 1.0052 in the USDCHF, seems like a decent spot to try selling some dollars...


interesting things happen near this level from time to time...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFMonthly.png Size: 52 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,196
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:32am Nov 14, 2016 7:32am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}chart is monthly candles, fiber really been a snooze last 2 yrs.....get the election jitters jumpin in Q1/Q2 I bet we could see new 10+ yr lows, maybe sub peepee {image}
its really has been bro, she will come out of here, just don't know when...and where is the real support in this pig...I have .9640 marked on my chart...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #145,197
  • Nov 14, 2016 8:42am Nov 14, 2016 8:42am
Eyes on the open ...Take it with a pinch of salt, large hands in London eyeballing Euro to knock down the 1.07.xx handle before the European close to leave the 1.06xx handle open for the ECB later this month...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,198
  • Nov 14, 2016 10:25am Nov 14, 2016 10:25am
Quoting sisse
PS: @hoom {quote} Why?...I am honesty surprise.... we'll wrap up the pending conversation later but don't really understand why did you flop in this one.
Not much to say about it ... I misinterpreted a crucial fact about the roll and the momentum in play for the mid term leg since we broke and closed at weekly low 1.085x .I admit I was caught in the micro flows on a major leg and I was looking for a chart that had different time zone on my smartphone so I called for a bullish roll even though I had the same targets . After a second look I saw my mistake .

Could be interpreted like this in a chart I guess :
if price breach the swing low and closed INSIDE the support zone the break would most of the time be imminent (happens occasionally and only when markets are “behaving” especially outside of major news or the opening and close of the markets)

Attached Image


If it makes any sense , I was sitting at the bar on friday night ...lost count of beers then I checked FF and I saw your last comment
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,199
  • Nov 14, 2016 11:58am Nov 14, 2016 11:58am
...Europe going home and Euro held the handle at least until tomorrow morning. On the rest of the board all markets moving in synch so not much to update with same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,200
  • Nov 14, 2016 12:06pm Nov 14, 2016 12:06pm
Closed 75℅ of midterm trades ... Dont want to be more greedy ... 20℅ will be closed either in trailing or the test of the low or below ... It was a good trade but tested my nerve system rigorously... Anyways not planning to trade until next ecb ... But if gets good levels will surely takes an entry ... We are in expensive tickets zone so expecting the returns to be same ...
Re-Incarnated
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