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  • #99,621
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:22am Nov 13, 2016 1:22am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Jfrancis, I appreciate your time and the information that you provided us with. I have always believed in the power of this particular way of tech analysis, but unfortunately I never had the chance to improve my knowledge due to a pretty vague information available on the internet. I would appreciate if you can point to sources which explain the theory behind that matter. Thanks a lot in advance. PS: probably stupid questions. Does the number of waves have to be always 5? Can one apply the same lines connecting highs and lows of let say...

corrective structures are 3 or 5 waves.
  • #99,622
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:26am Nov 13, 2016 1:26am
If you're looking to short AU. Wait for a corrective structure to sell

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  • #99,623
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:33am Nov 13, 2016 1:33am
Tech for AUD/USD:

AUD/USD: Neutral: Bearish if daily closing below 0.7550.
The 0.7568/0.7741 range yesterday was close to our expected 1 to 3 weeks consolidation range of 0.7555/0.7750. Volatility remains high but the weak daily closing has resulted in a negative undertone and a daily close below 0.7550 would indicate the start of sustained down-move (anticipating a break below 0.7505). This appears to be a likely scenario unless AUD can move and stay above 0.7700 from here.

https://www.efxnews.com/story/34605/...usd-nzdusd-uob

In addition to many technical analysis pointing to a down trip for the AUD/USD pair here is some fundamental analysis confirming the same prediction.

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish

  1. Australian Dollar breaks down from three month range after US election.
  2. Trump policy platform may feed Aussie-negative Fed vs. RBA divergence.
  3. US PPI and CPI data, Fed-speak threaten AUD/USD in the week ahead.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...ivergence.html

No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #99,624
  • Nov 13, 2016 2:58am Nov 13, 2016 2:58am
I only trade two type of Pairs and that is AUDJPY and AUDUSD...

And Monday is going to be very interesting... I will wait to 2nd session of trading to see where I am going to place my Buy or Sell orders.

My thinking is this:

  1. Thursday / Friday after the USA election the stock markets in both USA and AUS rallied to all time records, in terms of growth in a day - So i will wait and see how the market reacts.
  2. Also there is going to be some key data from Japan and China on Monday and if say Japan get better results then foretasted and CNY gets negative figures you will see the AUD crash.

  • #99,625
  • Edited 3:56am Nov 13, 2016 3:17am | Edited 3:56am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} Again, this is not a triangle
Its a triangle.

This is a problem with technical analysis any two analysts will see different things. Its not set in stone.

Its a symmetrical triangle.

sorry to bore other traders with this here BUT...

A symmetrical triangle forms as a trading range with lower highs and higher lows. It can occur in both up trends and down trends and is usually a continuation pattern. However, large symmetrical triangles also manifest as reversal patterns. Whether the symmetrical triangle will be a continuation pattern or a reversal pattern is determined when price breaks out of the pattern.

An ascending triangle forms as a trading range with equal highs and higher lows. It can occur in both up trends and down trends, but is most commonly found in up trends as a continuation pattern. Where it occurs in a down trend, it can be a powerful reversal pattern. The expectation is that price will break upwards from the pattern, because the higher lows indicate that bulls are more eager.

A descending triangle forms as a trading range with equal lows and lower highs. It can occur in both up trends and down trends, but is most commonly found in a down trend as a continuation pattern. Where it occurs in an up trend, it can be a powerful reversal pattern. The expectation is that price will break downwards from the pattern, because the lower highs indicate that bears are more eager.
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Further more patterns dont appear as in text book theory. Sometimes they are almost unrecognizable.

On the daily there is not triangle right, but is clearly visible on the weekly. On the monthly it could be called a pennant.
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  • #99,626
  • Nov 13, 2016 6:15am Nov 13, 2016 6:15am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Its a triangle. This is a problem with technical analysis any two analysts will see different things. Its not set in stone. Its a symmetrical triangle. sorry to bore other traders with this here BUT... A symmetrical triangle forms as a trading range with lower highs and higher lows. It can occur in both up trends and down trends and is usually a continuation pattern. However, large symmetrical triangles also manifest as reversal patterns. Whether the symmetrical triangle will be a continuation pattern or a reversal pattern is determined...
Firstly, for someone who has accurately predicting 4 different moves here. I think I know a little bit about corrective patterns how they form. It is not as easy as drawing trend lines from the top to bottom of two points.

This is the proper labeling of waves
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This is currently the bigger outlook on AU
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  • #99,627
  • Nov 13, 2016 6:35am Nov 13, 2016 6:35am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} This is a problem with technical analysis any two analysts will see different things. Its not set in stone.....
This is interesting discussion. I am not gonna judge who is wrong ang who is right. I just know that a lot of good things are coming out of a healthy discussions.
Said that I want to ask a question. PaulDaemon you say that patterns and triangles are not visible in all time frames As far as I am concerned that is completely true and I also can see triangles and candles which break out up or down. My question is: If you see a triangle and breakout in let say daily TF, do you need to continue to analyses this instrument in daily time frame in order make up your mind about your 'stop loses' and 'take profit' targets? Can this be done in a different TF if that gives a clearer picture of where the limits are?

NaT
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #99,628
  • Nov 13, 2016 6:42am Nov 13, 2016 6:42am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} Firstly, for someone who has accurately predicting 4 different moves here. I think I know a little bit about corrective patterns how they form. It is not as easy as drawing trend lines from the top to bottom of two points. This is the proper labeling of waves {image} This is currently the bigger outlook on AU {image}
I really dont know what kind of point you are trying to make here. You can talk about waves all you like but its not something i have not mentioned . Like I said TA has many point of views and there is different set ups on different times frames.

I have no problem with what you are saying about waves and agree with your analysis. You are looking at 4H chart which of course does not show a triangle. Each time frame will show a different trend or pattern and you can trade it accordingly..

Show us your trade explorer.
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  • #99,629
  • Nov 13, 2016 6:47am Nov 13, 2016 6:47am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} This is interesting discussion. I am not gonna judge who is wrong ang who is right. I just know that a lot of good things are coming out of a healthy discussions. Said that I want to ask a question. PaulDaemon you say that patterns and triangles are not visible in all time frames As far as I am concerned that is completely true and I also can see triangles and candles which break out up or down. My question is: If you see a triangle and breakout in let say daily TF, do you need to continue to analyses this instrument in daily time frame...
JFrancis. There is nothing wrong with his analysis its just another way to look at it. He is wrong to say its not a triangle pattern and I have really no idea why he is stating this. Its a common pattern and either way it will break out.

Price has compromised the top of the triangle but has yet to close above on the weekly. It is a a weekly triangle pattern and not daily or 4H.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,630
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:06am Nov 13, 2016 7:06am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} This is interesting discussion. I am not gonna judge who is wrong ang who is right. I just know that a lot of good things are coming out of a healthy discussions. Said that I want to ask a question. PaulDaemon you say that patterns and triangles are not visible in all time frames As far as I am concerned that is completely true and I also can see triangles and candles which break out up or down. My question is: If you see a triangle and breakout in let say daily TF, do you need to continue to analyses this instrument in daily time frame...
For me I like to get direction from the higher time frames its a lot safer way to trade. You know the saying trade with the trend. I have been short on the aussie from .76900 and higher. have stated this in other posts and even indicated how much to TP. I dont just rely on TA but Fundamentals are more important to me as fundamentals is what drives price in a particular direction, not the charts. TA is for entry and exit points.

Now thats it has broken the bottom side of the triangle will now wait and see how it plays out. I am interested in on tomorrows open. I feel it will open with a gap but which way? If it opens below support we need to go down to the smaller times frame to pick a entry point. 4H, 1h, 15m.

I rarely use a sl but trade with little or no leverage. The notion of having a 10 pip sl is borderline gambling as currencies are very volatile. I tend to pick tops and bottoms sometimes will wait for days weeks for entries. If I get it wrong I sit it out but keep in mind what I need to do to protect the account. Sometimes you have to take one for the team.

Check my last trade on the kiwi in my explorer. Every other analyst was saying its going to .77. But I like to read and watch the RBNZ statements. As soon as I had finished reading I went short disregarding technicals and traded purely on fundamentals.

As I said there are many ways to trade Technicals. Just because one analyst sees one thing it dont mean there cant be another analysis of different view.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,631
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:10am Nov 13, 2016 7:10am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} JFrancis. There is nothing wrong with his analysis its just another way to look at it. He is wrong to say its not a triangle pattern and I have really no idea why he is stating this. Its a common pattern and either way it will break out. Price has compromised the top of the triangle but has yet to close above on the weekly. It is a a weekly triangle pattern and not daily or 4H.
If you understand structure and know what structure is then you will know how to put your lines. Looking at this as triangle structure is incorrect. The internals here does not comply with the rules of a triangle. Wave analysis is rule based. But not everyone knows what the rules are and this is why there is so much subjectivety in wave analysis.


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Rules:

  1. In a Triangle, the waves always subdivide into 5 waves: A, B, C, D, & E.
  2. Wave A never goes beyond the origin or point X.
  3. Structure = 3-3-3-3-3
  4. At least four of the five waves subdivide into a zigzag or a combination of zigzags.
  5. Triangles do not have more than one complex subwave (only one Double or Triple).
  6. One of the five waves can subdivide into an Impulse

  • #99,632
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:17am Nov 13, 2016 7:17am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I really dont know what kind of point you are trying to make here. You can talk about waves all you like but its not something i have not mentioned . Like I said TA has many point of views and there is different set ups on different times frames. I have no problem with what you are saying about waves and agree with your analysis. You are looking at 4H chart which of course does not show a triangle. Each time frame will show a different trend or pattern and you can trade it accordingly.. Show us your trade explorer.

I know how to determine patterns in different Time Frames.

This right here on the weekly is an incomplete pattern
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This is the pattern your looking for on the weekly
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But on the daily, 4hr chart. You can already see that it is making a flat pattern
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  • #99,633
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:25am Nov 13, 2016 7:25am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} If you understand structure and know what structure is then you will know how to put your lines. Looking at this as triangle structure is incorrect. The internals here does not comply with the rules of a triangle. Wave analysis is rule based. But not everyone knows what the rules are and this is why there is so much subjectivety in wave analysis. {image} Rules: In a Triangle, the waves always subdivide into 5 waves: A, B, C, D, & E. Wave A never goes beyond the origin or point X. Structure = 3-3-3-3-3 At least four of the five waves subdivide...
You are talking in the confines of Elliot waves theory and the rules within.

In more traditional TA it really doesnt matter how many times price bounces around with the range you trade the break out or the support resistance while with in the triangle.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,634
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:35am Nov 13, 2016 7:35am
Here are some more examples of triangles of nab stocks. Its one of the easiest patterns to learn and does not have to be complicated with waves and counts and full of abcd's

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  • #99,635
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:35am Nov 13, 2016 7:35am
Because wave analysis is strictly rule based, there aren't many point of views as you say.
  • #99,636
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:36am Nov 13, 2016 7:36am
we must start this on a new thread this is for talking about the aussie not different view points of TA
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  • #99,637
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:37am Nov 13, 2016 7:37am
Quoting PaulDaemon
Here are some more examples of triangles of nab stocks. Its one of the easiest patterns to learn and does not have to be complicated with waves and counts and full of abcd's {image}
All I have to say is keep practicing. And yes it is very complex. Thats why many ppl stick to horizontal lines and call them support and resistance.

http://proelliottwave.com/free-ellio...nciple-basics/
  • #99,638
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:37am Nov 13, 2016 7:37am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} On the weekly chart The low point is on December 2015, we went on to make a higher high in April this year and a higher low in May. However until price moves past the previous high of April we cannot call a change in trend. At the same time we cannot assume the down trend will continue. But we must take current price action as direction as well as fundamentals. Trump is an uncertainty and you are right things will be volatile. Next year the Feds will go on a hiking frenzy combined with Trumps "Pro American" policies will push the USD sky...

You said-"Next year the Feds will go on a hiking frenzy combined with Trumps "Pro American" policies will push the USD sky high."

The following four quotes are copied from a speech Vice Chairman Stan Fischer of U.S. Fed reserve gave on Nov. 11-

"the Fed appears reasonably close to achieving both the inflation and employment components of its mandate. Accordingly, the case for removing accommodation GRADUALLY is quite strong".........

"First, the Fed will remove accommodation only in response to an outlook for improving economic conditions and firming inflation"..

"A fourth reason that spillovers could be mitigated is that U.S. policy rates are likely to increase only GRADUALLY--assuming that economic developments unfold reasonably in line with expectations--and to plateau at a significantly lower level than the historical average.12 The low long-run level of the policy rate reflects a number of factors--including slower productivity growth, demographic change, and a higher demand for safe assets--that have pushed down the real long-run neutral rate, which is the real interest rate needed to keep the economy at full employment in the longer-run. The upshot is that U.S. policy rates are likely to INCREASE MORE SLOWLY and by a lower cumulative amount, than in past episodes of U.S. monetary tightening. This in turn should reduce the divergence between the stance of U.S. and foreign monetary policies and the associated spillovers arising from such divergence"

"In my view, the prospects of a continued steady expansion in the U.S. economy are maximized to the extent that we proceed with a GRADUAL removal of accommodation. Such a GRADUAL approach to tightening policy will also help mitigate the risk of undesirable spillovers abroad"

He made it very clear that the Fed is sensitive to the potential impacts of altering US interest rates on exchange rates and the world economy. He stressed this point repeatedly. They have no intention to "go on a hiking frenzy."

However, as we discussed, Trump is the wild card causing uncertainty and the possibility exists that his policies or direct actions, such as new appointments to the Federal Reserve Board, may influence Fed Reserve policy.

The Trump election result is causing turmoil in the States now. There is speculation in social media and news that the FBI did not look closely enough at his ties to Russia, and may reopen investigations following evidence that he has businesses there and that Russia liaised with him closely during the elections. There may be more wiki leak revelations, or potential announcements by the Obama government that could whip saw markets. If any of these occur next week, they could have big near term impacts on financial markets.

A lot of uncertainty, the only real certainty is volatility.



https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...r20161111a.htm
  • #99,639
  • Nov 13, 2016 7:44am Nov 13, 2016 7:44am
Quoting PaulDaemon
we must start this on a new thread this is for talking about the aussie not different view points of TA

My main goal here on this forum is to educate, regardless of what pair we're looking at. Show your wave count on the Aussie triangle and see if it complies with the rules of a triangle.
  • #99,640
  • Nov 13, 2016 8:01am Nov 13, 2016 8:01am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} My main goal here on this forum is to educate, regardless of what pair we're looking at. Show your wave count on the Aussie triangle and see if it complies with the rules of a triangle.
This is the only wave I care about. (the big drop is a withdrawal not a loss)
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EW is so full proof but yet to see any successful traders trading this theory. Maybe thats all it is, theory. I am one of the few on here that is making consistent profit and have the means to back it up. Why is it i see so many guru's analysis teachers saying this and that and what ever but never have any accounts to back them up. see it all over the net charging ridiculous amounts of money for their courses and membership sites. But yet they dont even trade. They just talk about it.

I dont trade elliot wave so it does not pertain to my analysis.
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