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AUD/USD

  • #99,601
  • Nov 12, 2016 12:09am Nov 12, 2016 12:09am
past 3 months have been a nightmare to trade audusd, in contrast with early of this year.

anyone can know how to detect this kind of market so that i can stay out of it next time?
  • #99,602
  • Nov 12, 2016 1:20am Nov 12, 2016 1:20am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Expecting a last leg up in completing larger correction 4 red, before resuming down trend. {image}
I am not trying to disregard your chart because I am short but this large correction you waiting for might not come anytime soon.. i will advice you don't try longing this pair till at least 0.744** area where we could see something like a retest of the Triangle that just got broken... oh y world why would you think of LONG when it's been long expected for a HUGE drop?

Weird
  • #99,603
  • Nov 12, 2016 1:21am Nov 12, 2016 1:21am
Quoting nooblaster
past 3 months have been a nightmare to trade audusd, in contrast with early of this year. anyone can know how to detect this kind of market so that i can stay out of it next time?
Weekly candle bearish engulfing and closed below triangle support. Trumps policies very anti chinese so will have a huge effect on the Australian economy. from here over the next 6 to 12 months I for see a drop of 1000 pips.

Will post an analysis soon.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,604
  • Nov 12, 2016 1:21am Nov 12, 2016 1:21am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Hello Jfrancis! Could you please explain your graphics. Just some words please. Thanks in advance. NaT
This is wave analysis. The theory is that the market moves in waves, I think everyone would agree with this since the market does not go in a straight line. These waves create patterns and different structures that form in the market on a regular bases. These patterns, depending on how they form are expected to behave in a certain way giving you a very high probability to be in the right side of a trade, e.g. bull flags will break to the upside, bear flags will break to the downside. This is just the basics of wave analysis as these structures can became very complex.

In Audusd case, we had an ending diagonal that was completed. This is a 5 wave corrective structure that only forms in a wave C or 5.
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  • #99,605
  • Nov 12, 2016 1:26am Nov 12, 2016 1:26am
Quoting Jfrancis
This is how you make money ppl. {image} {image}
Hello JFrancis, Could you please check your PM?
  • #99,606
  • Nov 12, 2016 1:43am Nov 12, 2016 1:43am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} This is wave analysis. The theory is that the market moves in waves, I think everyone would agree with this since the market does not go in a straight line. These waves create patterns and different structures that form in the market on a regular bases. These patterns, depending on how they form are expected to behave in a certain way giving you a very high probability to be in the right side of a trade, e.g. bull flags will break to the upside, bear flags will break to the downside. This is just the basics of wave analysis as these structures...
From you explanation, should we open short now or wait another correction, thanks for kind advice
  • #99,607
  • Nov 12, 2016 3:43am Nov 12, 2016 3:43am
Quoting Jfrancis
{quote} This is wave analysis. The theory is that the market moves in waves, I think everyone would agree with this since the market does not go in a straight line. These waves create patterns and different structures that form in the market on a regular bases.
Jfrancis, I appreciate your time and the information that you provided us with. I have always believed in the power of this particular way of tech analysis, but unfortunately I never had the chance to improve my knowledge due to a pretty vague information available on the internet. I would appreciate if you can point to sources which explain the theory behind that matter.

Thanks a lot in advance.

PS: probably stupid questions. Does the number of waves have to be always 5? Can one apply the same lines connecting highs and lows of let say 3 or 7 waves? Is it right to understand that one have to wait for the candles to make a clear breakout of the channel that's been formed by the lines and this is what gives you the direction to the next resistance/support? Is this as simple as that?

Thank you Jfrancis.
NaT
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #99,608
  • Nov 12, 2016 4:51am Nov 12, 2016 4:51am
Triangle Break to the downside
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Trade Idea
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Take a look at copper
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Copper closed out on Friday with an engulfing outside bar . The previous day closed as a top pinbar and what appears to be an exhaustion gap up. Copper’s price action looks to be a pump and dump, and may bead back down to around the 2.2800 support level.

You can read the full post here
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,609
  • Nov 12, 2016 5:11am Nov 12, 2016 5:11am
Quoting ell3
{quote} Ok, they accepted blame for the issue and refunded the loss. Which is fair and correct in my circumstances. Meanwhile, hmm..... AUD on the climb AGAIN?! This is now really tricky. Think it's time to stay away from this pair for awhile. Been finding it tough to make money out of this pair recently.
nice work mate. i havent even attempted the aud/usd as of late, looks to docile. lots of movement in the nzd/usd and some clearer trends
  • #99,610
  • Nov 12, 2016 5:26am Nov 12, 2016 5:26am
Hello traders!
I am short on AUD/USD and I keep my shorts running. I see a lot of experience traders suggest that the pair will make a huge drop down by 400 to 600 pips. Someone even talking about a 1000 pip drop.

Here is my scary scenario. Exactly eight years ago when USA got new president the pair AUD/USD made almost a strait line move up all the way to 1.1000 (weekly time frame). If you look at the weekly charts you can see a strait move up during the first three and a half years of Obamas presidential period after which the price used another three and a half years to come all the way down to where it was.
Don't we have a similar situation now? I hope not.
Please share your thoughts about that here.

NaT
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #99,611
  • Edited 6:22am Nov 12, 2016 6:11am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting NotAtrader
Hello traders! I am short on AUD/USD and I keep my shorts running. I see a lot of experience traders suggest that the pair will make a huge drop down by 400 to 600 pips. Someone even talking about a 1000 pip drop. Here is my scary scenario. Exactly eight years ago when USA got new president the pair AUD/USD made almost a strait line move up all the way to 1.1000 (weekly time frame). If you look at the weekly charts you can see a strait move up during the first three and a half years of Obamas presidential period after which the price used another...
The difference it was post GFC, and Australia was going through the biggest commodity boom ever in history. Right now the boom is over and why the Aussie is on a down trend.

Just to give you an idea of the significance of the boom take a look at Iron ore 30 year chart.
Iron Ore is Australia's biggest income stream.
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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,612
  • Nov 12, 2016 6:14am Nov 12, 2016 6:14am
Quoting NotAtrader
Hello traders! I am short on AUD/USD and I keep my shorts running. I see a lot of experience traders suggest that the pair will make a huge drop down by 400 to 600 pips. Someone even talking about a 1000 pip drop. Here is my scary scenario. Exactly eight years ago when USA got new president the pair AUD/USD made almost a strait line move up all the way to 1.1000 (weekly time frame). If you look at the weekly charts you can see a strait move up during the first three and a half years of Obamas presidential period after which the price used another...
Always trade safe by reducing leverage and/or using SL

Upside potential for the Aussie is limited, but that doesn't mean it wont head up again. Currencies move is waves
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,613
  • Nov 12, 2016 6:18am Nov 12, 2016 6:18am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} The difference it was post CFC, and Australia was going through the biggest commodity boom ever in history. Right now the boom is over and why the Aussie is on a down trend. Just to give you an idea of the significance of the boom take a look at Iron ore 30 year chart. Iron Ore is Australia's biggest income stream. {image}
Well observed, PaulDaemon. This explains why the AUD went up so much. Thanks m8
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #99,614
  • Nov 12, 2016 7:26am Nov 12, 2016 7:26am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} The difference it was post GFC, and Australia was going through the biggest commodity boom ever in history. Right now the boom is over and why the Aussie is on a down trend. Just to give you an idea of the significance of the boom take a look at Iron ore 30 year chart. Iron Ore is Australia's biggest income stream. {image}
Paul


"Right now the boom is over and why the Aussie is on a down trend.'

Relating this week's drop in AU to the end of the commodity boom seems like misplaced timing to me. Although it's accurate to say we have been in a long term down trend, most recently we have been in a sideways ranging trend (roughly .746-.7720 -60) following on a short term uptrend. We haven't dropped below that range since June this year, and have made progressively higher lows on the weekly chart since then, including the current low. Early this week, Redalert, posted a link , from which I've copied the following.....

"According to Metal Bulletin, the spot price for benchmark 62% fines surged by 3.92% to $70.98 a tonne, surpassing the previous peak of $70.26 a tonne struck on April 21.
The price hasnt been this high since January 9, 2015.
It has now added 27.1% over the past month, extending its gain in 2016 to a jaw-dropping 62.9%. From the all-time record low of $38.30 a tonne struck on December 11 last year, its added 85.3%."

Coal, which also is an important export commodity, representing from memory 10% by value of Australia's exports, is also at levels not touched for several years. Coal mines are reopening and currently hiring.

Gold has dropped this week, and as you've pointed out Paul, so has copper. But they are still at high levels relative to the bottom of their cycles, and their drops have so far only occurred on short time frames.

As we're all aware, the world financial markets have been chaotic this week due to the Trump effect. Obviously we can expect further near term volatility. We may well reach the low targets projected by the bears here. Commodity prices may get smashed by the Trump and China relationship. But I see nothing in current commodity prices to base a 500 plus drop in the A/U. The daily chart is very bearish, and there is a large engulfing candle on the weekly, but until we drop below the sideways range (about 120 pips down from here) current prices may be a false break.






tohttp://www.steelorbis.com/steel-prices/daily-prices/?gclid=CIL-9ZGeo9ACFQuavAodVGIHxg#
  • #99,615
  • Nov 12, 2016 8:01am Nov 12, 2016 8:01am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Paul "Right now the boom is over and why the Aussie is on a down trend.' Relating this week's drop in AU to the end of the commodity boom seems like misplaced timing to me. Although it's accurate to say we have been in a long term down trend, most recently we have been in a sideways ranging trend (roughly .746-.7720 -60) following on a short term uptrend. We haven't dropped below that range since June this year, and have made progressively higher lows on the weekly chart since then, including the current low. Early this week, Redalert, posted...
On the weekly chart The low point is on December 2015, we went on to make a higher high in April this year and a higher low in May. However until price moves past the previous high of April we cannot call a change in trend. At the same time we cannot assume the down trend will continue. But we must take current price action as direction as well as fundamentals. Trump is an uncertainty and you are right things will be volatile.

Next year the Feds will go on a hiking frenzy combined with Trumps "Pro American" policies will push the USD sky high.

It may well be a false break and it has only just broken to the downside. Every time price has attempted to break above the resistance it has failed resulting in a bearish candle. The current break to the downside is a bearish candle close (Weekly time frame) and not a bullish candle close.

If price gaps up on Monday open we could call it a false break, if price opens at the close price or lower it will open under support.

Understandable the commodity market is not dead and running stable , but the boom is over and the future is uncertain. My projections are based on medium to long term and see the drop happening over a 6 to 12 month period.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,616
  • Nov 12, 2016 8:18am Nov 12, 2016 8:18am
Hi Guys, just a side question... Could one use U.S. CPI and/or PMI as an indicator for oil and more specifically the USD/CAD? since 85% of Canada's exports go to the U.S.

Thanks guys.
Have a lekka day !!
  • #99,617
  • Edited 8:33am Nov 12, 2016 8:18am | Edited 8:33am
I had done a quick analysis of the US index some time ago when everyone else said it would tank. I may have been a little over optimistic but price has done what I projected. I have been wanting to do a full analysis of the dollar index for a while so may be next on the list.
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https://twitter.com/Scalp_FX/status/772012101640433664

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20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,618
  • Nov 12, 2016 8:33pm Nov 12, 2016 8:33pm
The AUD will not reach the 1.000 mark ever again... Australia went through a huge property BOOM and mining BOOM.
Australia is now going through the opposite effect.

Mining has slowed down, people are carry to much debt, manufacturing is struggling and allot of other factors effecting Australia.

GFC didnt effect Australia but. I think we are now starting to see some strong signs.
  • #99,619
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:17am Nov 13, 2016 1:17am
Quoting PaulDaemon
Triangle Break to the downside {image} Trade Idea {image} Take a look at copper {image} Copper closed out on Friday with an engulfing outside bar . The previous day closed as a top pinbar and what appears to be an exhaustion gap up. Coppers price action looks to be a pump and dump, and may bead back down to around the 2.2800 support level. You can read the full post here
Again, this is not a triangle
  • #99,620
  • Nov 13, 2016 1:18am Nov 13, 2016 1:18am
Quoting primaprima
{quote} From you explanation, should we open short now or wait another correction, thanks for kind advice
Always wait for a completed correction to get in a buy or sell
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