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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,141
  • Nov 11, 2016 2:34pm Nov 11, 2016 2:34pm
Quoting sisse
6th update from US election: --> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from Neutral to Soft Sell sisse
short-term, yes.....but the inflationary impact of an anti freetrade US stance would reverse that. I wonder what Janet Yellen thinks? Maybe she is too busy packing....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,142
  • Nov 11, 2016 2:37pm Nov 11, 2016 2:37pm
Quoting The Fool
But I expect it would contribute to a deep recession in the US...
...not "if?" now, but "when?"
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,143
  • Nov 11, 2016 3:27pm Nov 11, 2016 3:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}why I just trade spreads - flys and verticals mostly. Long volatility is dicey and those ^vix products like UVXY are based on ^VIX futures, which are nearly constantly in contango. The CBOE VIX options track the spot ^VIX, but those are tricky to trade, also. Generally, I only trade UVXY, VXX, and VIX around "scheduled" volatility events. To "trade expectations", I set up spreads to bracket the event in time, or even to front-run the event completely. As we have seen, the event aftermath often coincides with a rapid crash of the ^VIX. If...
Yup. Aware of that decay due to contango. Why I usually drop it quick. This one was a lotto ticket. Small money planned on expiring worthless, unless....
Played it because I don't feel confident yet with setting up spreads but I'm not far off from tossing a coin in that well. Main problem with the idea was reading the election wrong. Not in terms of who wins (although I got that wrong like you read about in Wrong Magazine) but more with regard to what you and sisse were discussing last night. The "binary event". I was thinking it was Him/Her. But it was Drama/No drama. Makes so much sense in hindsight. But then so would have that UVXY trade if it worked. Hindsight is funny like that.
What you posted makes a lot of sense. yes. frontrun.
  • #145,144
  • Nov 11, 2016 4:20pm Nov 11, 2016 4:20pm
...and we rolled. A xxxx weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for xxxxx...

This time Pharm0r (or anybody who want to fill the blanks fill free to jump in) will take the lead in filling the blanks before the next week open:

a) Bullish .....retrace at minimum until further data
b) Neutral ...chop zone until further data
c) Bearish ...direct continuation until further data

sisse

Quoting The Fool
{quote}...not "if?" now, but "when?"
Don't forget Obama is leaving the US with strong macro numbers in almost all fronts and in some areas with the strongest in decades in technical full employment and with inflation on the exact mark. Even if Trump becomes the worst president ever.... Nothing has changed yet since last week in the real macro fundamentals numbers and prolly wont change for the rest of the year.

We will see a selloff in Equities way before macro numbers break the uptrends and hundred miles before the average Joe even realise something went wrong (same with Brexit)....meaning lets start with RMT first, and let see some of the details (if anything interesting) in Trump economic plan next few weeks.

His very early potential team so far in Foreign Policy is underwhelming and borderline dangeruos to say the least and in the Economic front is rather a blank page with alpha male chest beating 'I am businessman' grunts as only arguments ...that is not really much to judge just yet in the short term...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,145
  • Nov 11, 2016 4:37pm Nov 11, 2016 4:37pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. A xxxx weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for xxxxx... This time Pharm0r (or anybody who want to fill the blanks fill free to jump in) will take the lead in filling the blanks before the next week open: a) Bullish .....retrace at minimum until further data b) Neutral ...chop zone until further data c) Bearish ...direct continuation until further data sisse {quote} Don't forget Obama is leaving the US with strong macro numbers in almost all fronts and in some areas with the strongest...
a)
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,146
  • Nov 11, 2016 4:47pm Nov 11, 2016 4:47pm
The answer would be C. We closed under the .0860 level. We have set the HIGH of MONTH but believe we can set the MONTH LOWER with .074X and .064X
  • #145,147
  • Edited 6:19pm Nov 11, 2016 5:07pm | Edited 6:19pm
Closing back just over 0851 says bullish (small retrace) to me.
A).
  • #145,148
  • Edited 5:25pm Nov 11, 2016 5:12pm | Edited 5:25pm
Quoting sisse
.. Economic front is rather a blank page with alpha male chest beating 'I am businessman' grunts as only arguments ...that is not really much to judge just yet in the short term... sisse
Think he said his strategy for that was to ask " the best business guys we got" what to do.
Maybe slogan will be "Yes Icahn!"

Good weekend all.
And thank you to any vets or family who might read this thread. Your sacrifice does not go unappreciated.
  • #145,149
  • Nov 11, 2016 5:20pm Nov 11, 2016 5:20pm
I will say A
As it looks. We have a weak LL and are at a support level close is some pips above the October low ( 9 pips on my chart) .
It is a monster weekly candle almost same size as the Brexit weekly candle.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,150
  • Nov 11, 2016 5:30pm Nov 11, 2016 5:30pm
Quoting sisse
... Don't forget Obama is leaving the US with strong macro numbers in almost all fronts and in some areas with the strongest in decades in technical full employment and with inflation on the exact mark. Even if Trump becomes the worst president ever.... Nothing has changed yet
....Nothing has changed yet. But Everything Changes. (Viva Heraclitus.) If/when the anti- frree trade saber-rattling ramps up from the Trump regime is about when the markets begin to crap pantalones. I reckon.

The economies of the 3 western States of the USA are all heavily related (at least 50% directly) to foreign trade. If WA+OR+CA were a country, it would have the 5th largest GDP in the world, roughly the size of Germany's (a strawish conjecture, I know).....anyway, talk of secession getting louder all up/down I-5. If the USA is so starkly divided along cultural lines, why keep it together?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,151
  • Nov 11, 2016 6:07pm Nov 11, 2016 6:07pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. A xxxx weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for xxxxx... This time Pharm0r (or anybody who want to fill the blanks fill free to jump in) will take the lead in filling the blanks before the next week open: a) Bullish .....retrace at minimum until further data b) Neutral ...chop zone until further data c) Bearish ...direct continuation until further data sisse {quote} Don't forget Obama is leaving the US with strong macro numbers in almost all fronts and in some areas with the strongest...
C, with a test of Nov '15 low in sight. Nothing to change until AFTER Fed (there's no other data left). Any bounces should be looked at for selling opportunities/triggers.

1.095x looks decent
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  • #145,152
  • Nov 11, 2016 6:24pm Nov 11, 2016 6:24pm
b
  • #145,153
  • Nov 11, 2016 6:57pm Nov 11, 2016 6:57pm
...and we rolled. A bearish weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for I don't know......
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #145,154
  • Edited 10:22pm Nov 11, 2016 7:06pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} C, with a test of Nov '15 low in sight. Nothing to change until AFTER Fed (there's no other data left). Any bounces should be looked at for selling opportunities/triggers. 1.095x looks decent {image}
I am still trying to process the roll concept based on TA for most of the cases , a bearish daily roll could be a bullish weekly and bearish again monthly , what I understand by roll in accordance to the timeframe is the way we close NY for a certain TF above or under s/r zones for exemple . In this case euro rolled above support zone on weekly which suggests that we couldn't get a clean sweep thus a retrace and bulllish weekly even if we trigger the lows in exhaution leg.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,155
  • Nov 11, 2016 7:38pm Nov 11, 2016 7:38pm
Based on the last lesson on Points of Control and Invisible line, it's C (bearish).
  • #145,156
  • Nov 11, 2016 7:48pm Nov 11, 2016 7:48pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} I am still trying to process the roll conept based on TA for most of the cases , a bearish daily roll could bullish weekly and bearish again monthly , what I understand by roll in accordance to the timeframe is the way we close NY for a certain TF above or under s/r zones for exemple . In this case euro rolled above support zone on weekly which suggests that we couldn't get a clean sweep thus a retrace and bulllish weekly even if we trigger the lows in exhaution leg.
but with no NY in play does it count? Also, I see complete engulfing with 0 profit taking, the roll above support would be splitting hairs imo....whos support...they're all different to each of us. In my view, and the way I view roll play- the support is broken, and NY wasn't even in the game.

I have that mini target hit on my chart, which usually a bounce after...not discounting a possible bounce but in my eyes it'll get sold if so. With soft sell bias I wouldnt be interested in a bounce anyway
  • #145,157
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:05pm Nov 11, 2016 8:05pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} but with no NY in play does it count? Also, I see complete engulfing with 0 profit taking, the roll above support would be splitting hairs imo....whos support...they're all different to each of us. In my view, and the way I view roll play- the support is broken, and NY wasn't even in the game. I have that mini target hit on my chart, which usually a bounce after...not discounting a possible bounce but in my eyes it'll get sold if so. With soft sell bias I wouldnt be interested in a bounce anyway
Good question in regards of NY roll today considering US bank holiday ...what I looked for is weekly in 2016 , we didn't take the low ie S zone which made my point about the bullish roll as I have analysed the previous ones from Sisse posts , besides a bullish roll doesnt involve a bullish candle from open to close and that been the case many times ... Sisse response should confirm our thoughts
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #145,158
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:04pm Nov 11, 2016 9:04pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. A xxxx weekly roll in the Euro. We are set for xxxxx... This time Pharm0r (or anybody who want to fill the blanks fill free to jump in) will take the lead in filling the blanks before the next week open: a) Bullish .....retrace at minimum until further data b) Neutral ...chop zone until further data c) Bearish ...direct continuation until further data sisse {quote} Don't forget Obama is leaving the US with strong macro numbers in almost all fronts and in some areas with the strongest...
Hi sisse, I'm going with c) Bearish ...direct continuation until further data.

I see there's been a lot of posters since I started writing this and constructing my chart (it took so damn long!) and I look forward to reading all afterwards, but I just want to get this posted first before it all disappears into the ether on me (wouldn't be the first time and we all know how that feels ha ha! ;( ).

1. As someone said earlier this weekly bar is almost as big as the Brexit bar and so a retrace might be in order. But we've had many instances of successive large weekly bear candles before (eg # 1 + 2) and in these "Game-changer" times this could easily happen again now.

2. This weekly bar has also turned out to be a very solid pinbar closing on it's lows and see here #'s 3, 4 + 5 as previous examples (admittedly #3 took several weeks to play out before # 4 nailed the coffin).

3. Our current weekly pinbar has also fully engulfed the 2 previous bull candles and closed lower (on my platform anyway), and the slope of the lows is slightly downward (#6). Not only that but we've now recently started closing below the Brexit Bar lows for the first time which I also see as bearish.

4. Although a slight pullback is quite possible (preferably no higher than 1.0980 as marked on my chart), the outlook hasn't really changed re Fed hikes or sisse's RMT and sell outlook etc, so I'd be staying put with shorts and aiming for hopefully 1.0580 eventually.

And now to read all the other posts which are always so informative, not just sisse's, cause it takes everyone to make this thread work so well so thanks again to ALL!
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #145,159
  • Nov 12, 2016 1:13am Nov 12, 2016 1:13am
(A) for me,
  • #145,160
  • Nov 12, 2016 1:58am Nov 12, 2016 1:58am
I will take "C". As I see it there has been no fundamental changes yet and our support zone at 083x to 077x has been tested 2x already before today. That coupled with rmt equals continuation. Maybe a bit of profit taking (did earlier today) but no higher than 108x to 111x before down again (so long as no new data is terrible). I would consider adding shorts here.

I hope this makes sense and appreciate anyone's input here. I would post charts but fxcm has closed shop for the weekend
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