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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,121
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:20am Nov 11, 2016 9:20am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}did you trade it? Being "right" doesn't pay if you don't trade it. The bond slide started before the election, possible to anticipate that based on assumed Dec ffr hike. I have several of these TLT Dec/Jan put calendars from $120 to $117, all in 3x profit or better atm.. {image}
Yes I know, we discussed in detail in the thread weeks before the election when we have the initial short-circuit but most unaware traders ignored as as simple blip ...

here ...and back

Quoting sisse
...Bonds don't move like that on a market hiccup ...they lead major moves we have mentioned a few times in the thread. In the short term is positioning before US elections which is the safest....
No i wasn't swinging it before elections just the direct flow leg in the T ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,122
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:31am Nov 11, 2016 9:31am
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
This is from Swamp Thread Quoting @MissPips Quoting gatorinla {quote} i knew about lower court ruling would stand. supreme court can take a case w/o or before a lower court ruling. so its possible there would not be a lower court ruling beforehand. if something in either case would happen. let's say clinton got the nod (court ruling wise). i doubt many of the senators like mitch would have a leadership job.. the even number on court could be a big cluster. the guy put...
Now that would be one to write home about. And the likely response would make the LA riots look like a Tupperware party. Guess we will see at their meeting on "the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December" (what a joke).
  • #145,123
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:38am Nov 11, 2016 9:38am
Quoting goosebone
Now that would be one to write home about. And the likely response would make the LA riots look like a Tupperware party. Guess we will see at their meeting on "the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December" (what a joke).
right, that'll be Dec 19....on the volatility play calendar....but there's a lot of yardage in between. If DJT doesn't settle his Trump U. case(s), expect that to heat up the tweet-o-sphere....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,124
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:43am Nov 11, 2016 9:43am
Quoting The Fool
I am guessing this inter-regnum phase will be a chance for a nice market bull run, but that the honeymoon will start to fade after the Dec FOMC, Trump's cabinet choices are floated, etc. Time will tell...
...maybe sooner than later....if anything is true now it's just how unpredictable things are....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,125
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:43am Nov 11, 2016 9:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}right, that'll be Dec 19....on the volatility play calendar....but there's a lot of yardage in between. If DJT doesn't settle his Trump U. case(s), expect that to heat up the tweet-o-sphere....
Couple more Kremlin tweets could stir the pot. I heard Assange has Putin’s Xmas card list.
  • #145,126
  • Nov 11, 2016 10:09am Nov 11, 2016 10:09am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...maybe sooner than later....if anything is true now it's just how unpredictable things are....
Real soon would be appreciated by me given my 11/18 way out of the money UVXY calls.
  • #145,127
  • Nov 11, 2016 10:15am Nov 11, 2016 10:15am
Eu broke
  • #145,128
  • Nov 11, 2016 10:15am Nov 11, 2016 10:15am
Quoting sisse
Slightly better numbers. Thin markets right now. Last chance to break down in a clean sweep this week. Failure to take the lows in the Euro until the European close and a key week will be over across the board. sisse
Technically in my books the roll play is in progress and confirmed via the last hour close

would you consider this invalid based on US holiday? I suspect low liquidity, however; that could play into a momentum short....so roll play still in effect regardless?

I typically err on the side of caution- don't usually bother taking positions on holidays
  • #145,129
  • Nov 11, 2016 10:22am Nov 11, 2016 10:22am
Watch out for OIL lossing the handle for the energy close as it unlocks that tricky pending test $36 also part of the RMT flow...

Shaky closing session of the week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,130
  • Edited 10:49am Nov 11, 2016 10:25am | Edited 10:49am
Also the Mexican Peso aligning to set a new high in some EDIT: minutes, probably after another micro retrace. The pieces are aligning with the EUR
  • #145,131
  • Nov 11, 2016 10:48am Nov 11, 2016 10:48am
Quoting Witnessed
Also the Mexican Peso aligning to set a new high in some minutes, probably after another micro retrace. The pieces are aligning with the EUR
Not likely, Monday meeting of MCB, 21.25 was it, altough there could very likely be gap upwards on open.
  • #145,132
  • Nov 11, 2016 11:19am Nov 11, 2016 11:19am
...and Boom goes the dynamite!

Seismic moves in the commodity front WTF moments in silver and cooper. From coffee to NG and lesser extend GOLD. Oil on the verge of one. On the FX front MX peso annihilated and Dollar on the move ... Bonds hundred miles ahead of the rest (as usual in macro moves) already deep on the go.

For those who still don't realise that we had a Game Changer....this is only the start of the journey ...major legs are cooking for next Quarter and beyond ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,133
  • Nov 11, 2016 11:39am Nov 11, 2016 11:39am
Quoting Witnessed
Also the Mexican Peso aligning to set a new high in some EDIT: minutes, probably after another micro retrace. The pieces are aligning with the EUR
There is a few almost flawless concepts in international trade that are worth reviewing giving the circumstances:

  1. It takes a very long time to build a trade agreement. In the last 200 years, the average time was 10 years in some studies (the biggest one from the GATT to the WTO took 50 years !!!!) but it takes less that 1 year in average (usually a random nationalist government) to destroy them. You wonder why protectionism is so costly and bad.
  2. Size matters . Once a trade agreement is signed, all parties involved win in the long run with the largest gains always inverse proportional with the size of the party involved.

     

    1. A smaller country will benefit more than a large one in a Free Trade Agreement. For example Botswana sign a free trade agreement with the EU. The EU will not even bother negotiating too much the terms as the impact will be null. However for that African country it can make a huge difference in terms of economic impact.


  3. Sadly, when a Free Trade Agreement is broken the smallest party always receive the WORST part of the impact and this is ALWAYS translate in the short term in its currency.

--> What we are witnessing now both in the MX peso and the Sterling (obviously keeping the distance between them) is that both countries are on the verge to lose access to the 2 largest free trade markets in the world. The European common market and NAFTA (one because of their own decision to shot themselves on the foot , the other one just simply because the new president doesn't like Mexicans).

--> The natural reaction, and it happens every single time in history when a trade agreement is about to collapse or break the smaller party (in this case MX and UK...btw both are huge in size but in relative terms to the other party are the smaller side) currency collapse to offset the potential market impact in market access, competitiveness and initial sharp shock if both agreements are broken ...

In simple words, the closer we get to break those deals, the sharper the massacre in their currencies...meaning we have been seen the top/bottom yet ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,134
  • Nov 11, 2016 11:47am Nov 11, 2016 11:47am
http://www.forexfactory.com/789878#acct.20
King of martingale.
Is this live account really?
  • #145,135
  • Nov 11, 2016 12:01pm Nov 11, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting entheos
http://www.forexfactory.com/789878#acct.20 King of martingale. Is this live account really?
No, Ken A busted him a long time ago. Even still, this isnt the thread for such conversations as it distracts from the topics at hand
  • #145,136
  • Nov 11, 2016 12:07pm Nov 11, 2016 12:07pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} No, Ken A busted him a long time ago. Even still, this isnt the thread for such conversations as it distracts from the topics at hand
He he he ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,137
  • Nov 11, 2016 12:11pm Nov 11, 2016 12:11pm
@the spammer above ..yes get the fck out of here ...

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Technically in my books the roll play is in progress and confirmed via the last hour close would you consider this invalid based on US holiday? I suspect low liquidity, however; that could play into a momentum short....so roll play still in effect regardless? I typically err on the side of caution- don't usually bother taking positions on holidays
Yeap liquidity was thin and now without London we are trading air.

On the roll play? What a holiday has to do with a simple technical concept?. A roll play is just that, was a opportunity to load in a price based trigger @1.092x. As I am sure know, it was although a super simple trade, it was the expensive ticket on the map (we were in red zone for the momentum break down in sell).

Just for the last flow, either on the way back @ 1.122x on the election knee jerk reaction extreme cheap ticket (the one you took), the normal that most shouldn't have missed with the European open (@1.111x...green cheap ticket) the day after, the very noisy one with NY (yellow tickets 1.097x and below) and this last one on yst roll (on red tickets)... if that make any sense to you ...in terms of the outlook colour maps.

sisse

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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,138
  • Nov 11, 2016 12:32pm Nov 11, 2016 12:32pm
...and we have only one check left for today for a flawless timed map but more importantly a superb trading week.... Euro losing 1.086x for the close will settle the deal.

Quoting sisse
As usual in announcement like this. All micro levels raised. 1.128x top [mega check], 1.091x [check] bottom for the range that extends until NFP/elections [check].

Euro completed a full retrace in only a few sessions. Hikes by default or hawkish will mark the high of the Month on the current highs [check for today close] Move split in 2 mini legs, NFP for momentum [check], clearing elections (without problems) for capitulation [mega check]
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,139
  • Nov 11, 2016 1:42pm Nov 11, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting goosebone
Real soon would be appreciated by me given my 11/18 way out of the money UVXY calls.
why I just trade spreads - flys and verticals mostly. Long volatility is dicey and those ^vix products like UVXY are based on ^VIX futures, which are nearly constantly in contango. The CBOE VIX options track the spot ^VIX, but those are tricky to trade, also.

Generally, I only trade UVXY, VXX, and VIX around "scheduled" volatility events. To "trade expectations", I set up spreads to bracket the event in time, or even to front-run the event completely. As we have seen, the event aftermath often coincides with a rapid crash of the ^VIX. If you set up a long vol trade on an event and the event is pretty much done, it's best to exit the trade quickly and salvage any value that remains in the instruments.

I had some Nov 11/Nov 18 UVXY call flys that I was able to exit with some value today, thanks to a little rise for UVXY, but those still lost money. Others that were set up further otm will be a complete loss. But these are spreads that I typically pay <$15/contract for, so it's not the end of the world. And the spreads I had set up for the pre-election ^VIX rise all made nice money. All in all, I probably just about broke even on the whole election volatility trade project. (Another frustrating lack of follow-through on an unexpected, indeed shocking result, just like the Brexit vote - but the recurring lesson: frontrun.)


http://www.etftrends.com/2016/10/a-c...latility-etfs/

" Additionally, since the VIX-related indices track futures, the tools may be subject to the negative effects of contango in the futures market. The S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures Index rolls contracts every day to gain a notional exposure that is always 30 days out. However, since the VIX market is perpetually in a state of contango, where later dated contracts are costlier than near term contracts, the index is selling low and buying high each time it rolls over its contract.

If the VIX term structure is consistently upward sloping, the return of these futures based indexes will underperform the spot VIX, Ryan Dofflemeyer, Portfolio Manager at ProShares, said. "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,140
  • Nov 11, 2016 2:19pm Nov 11, 2016 2:19pm
http://www.forbes.com/sites/doliaest.../#505e5160703b

Remittances surpassed crude oil revenues for the first time in history in December of 2014. Since then, remittances have continued to increase even to the point of representing more than twice the value of crude oil exports since December of 2015,

The USD is going parabolic against the MXN peso....the last time I was slumming in Mexico it was around 11 pesos to the dollar. Well, I guess it would be a great time to go down and buy a cheap place on the beach. Except they will prolly be killing more gringos soon...

The article about remittances: the crash of the peso makes the value of remittances even more. If Trump truly wants to build a southern border wall and have Mexico pay for it, that's where the money could come from. To severely curtail the flow of remittances into Mexico would crash their economy, which means a wall would be more of a necessity, as economic refugees would increase. Of course, if the remittances are heavily taxed, the migrant workers would stop coming - the result of that on the US economy would remain to be seen. But I expect it would contribute to a deep recession in the US...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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