The Really Useless Thread | Page 7256 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,101
  • Nov 10, 2016 4:29pm Nov 10, 2016 4:29pm
USDX

Was 1 pip below previous high today. So for now a double top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXDaily.png Size: 31 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,102
  • Nov 10, 2016 4:29pm Nov 10, 2016 4:29pm
Quoting sisse
..As you well know how equities work...+100 choppy, sluggish and slow daily rallies, selloff in 2 session of -6% each on a really bad news, buy the dip another 100 choppy, sluggish et..etc etc rinse and repeat
sure, it's not a new game. What has changed though is the lightning speed of the dips. I say all you need to know is BTFD and anyone trading equities or their derivatives should know to keep some BTFD cash on hand. But then, the dips get bought back so fast now that you will most likely miss the best of the btfd opportunity unless you are daytrading. What just happened on the night of 11/08 a classic example: the dip was done and bought back before the NY open the next day. So much for "binary" - there are not even any binary events anymore, just scheduled volatility episodes. And yes those are tradeable.

Anyway, I am betting on a nice trending market for a month or more and I am betting bonds continue to sell off. Other trades are sector related, as noted above.

I expect the noise from Europe to take a shot at roiling the markets, but nothing on the calendar there until the French elections, unless I am wrong.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,103
  • Nov 10, 2016 4:42pm Nov 10, 2016 4:42pm
Hi everyone!

What's going on with the spreads & volume?

Thanks!
  • #145,104
  • Nov 10, 2016 4:52pm Nov 10, 2016 4:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}sure, it's not a new game. What has changed though is the lightning speed of the dips. ..... Anyway, I am betting on a nice trending market for a month or more and I am betting bonds continue to sell off. Other trades are sector related, as noted above. I expect the noise from Europe to take a shot at roiling the markets, but nothing on the calendar there until the French elections, unless I am wrong.
Indeed.

--> There is only main FED play left for the year. Expecting a relatively quiet next few weeks in the US political front [market wise i mean] . Farewell to Obama while we star getting some details from Trump should keep markets shield and dull.

--> FED dec is the main dish currently in play for all markets across the world and a key ECB that can mark the beginning of the flows for next year (kick the can in QE or the start of the end).

--> The political news cycle should also calm down [market wise] until Christmas in Europe especially while the world digest Trump. Expecting hiccups from the Brexit front to start picking up 'decibels' next month for the 'holiday' days after Christmas as any government and particularly a populist one will want to send its political PR message to the masses during those extra 'dead winter hours in front of the TV' before the turbulent next year ahead....

For now back to FED/ECB ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,105
  • Nov 10, 2016 11:16pm Nov 10, 2016 11:16pm
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreyd.../#504504601637

"The most likely outcome is that President Trump will fill the two vacant spots in early 2017 with the people he plans to elevate to the two top spots a year later."

Some are speculating Yellen will resign before her term ends. I suppose the logical time to do that would be shortly after the Dec FOMC, before DJT takes office. But it's all speculation. Anyway, his new appointments will be closely watched and could shake the shack. I am guessing this inter-regnum phase will be a chance for a nice market bull run, but that the honeymoon will start to fade after the Dec FOMC, Trump's cabinet choices are floated, etc. Time will tell...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,106
  • Nov 11, 2016 3:51am Nov 11, 2016 3:51am
That was it for the European opening. Euro held 1.092x as expected so watch out if it trips and break the current lows as we will got the start of the momentum play in the mid term leg...

Quoting sisse
...and we rolled. But more interestingly and for those still following this conversation ...we have? guess what> ..."ROLL PLAY" for today for the 3er time this Quarter. Failure to take 1.092x until tomorrow Europe will leave the Euro in need of a Miracle TA wise [only] for this month.
For those following the Bond conversations the last few weeks and the latest moves from election. Main headlines in the public Bloomberg version (@Pharm0r you were asking about asymmetric information ...here you have it a live and fresh case) picking up on the flows.

It will trickling down to the mass general media in the next few days, weeks ....but you read it first and live here in the thread...a bit of bragging rights ...je je je ...just teasing the haters on the background ...for those who want to read it. Today Bloomberg:

" Bonds Tumble by $1 Trillion This Week as Trump Seen Game Changer" (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...lation-concern)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,107
  • Nov 11, 2016 4:06am Nov 11, 2016 4:06am
Moving week ... macro stops raised in Sterling watch-out the 1.290x handle as there is lots of air above 1.268x....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,108
  • Nov 11, 2016 4:50am Nov 11, 2016 4:50am
Simpsons our's time Nostradamus? This is from 2011

Inserted Video
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #145,109
  • Edited 7:08am Nov 11, 2016 6:43am | Edited 7:08am
A likely place imo for eu retrace. Close under 8510 would give us the most bearish monthly candle we've had since May (or before depending on how you look at ta). Weekly can print bearish without that break (support zone). Maybe visit 0964 from below, maybe 1020. Won't try to guess that. I'm thinking we will get that M close under but not without a bounce from here. Printing 5 or 6 daily candles of the same color doesn't happen often.
Disclaimor: US election results showed that my perceptions and predictions can be safely ignored with extreme prejudice.

I think that's the long way of saying "Roll play".
  • #145,110
  • Nov 11, 2016 7:21am Nov 11, 2016 7:21am
Quoting Earleone
Simpsons our's time Nostradamus? This is from 2011 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtparSnQhFc
theyve predicted all kinds of events throughout the years, its kind of creepy
  • #145,111
  • Nov 11, 2016 7:32am Nov 11, 2016 7:32am
do any1 expect anything with the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report today with weekly closing ..... ?
Re-Incarnated
  • #145,112
  • Nov 11, 2016 7:51am Nov 11, 2016 7:51am
A very interesting session in Europe, UK equities short circuiting from the rest of the develop world and breaking correlation with world equities. All eyes on the close today, failure to find bids on the closing sessions will trigger huge early alert signals on what is cooking in the background for next few months.

--> First exports related manufacturing flop after the nuclear devaluation is not something to take light and last day's sell-off in emerging markets have bigger impact in all UK sectors exposed to those regions rather than the rally in US and the rest of Europe.

--> Very strangely (or perhaps not when you bet in isolation) UK aligned with emerging markets today...Keeping a close eye on this early signals as after Trump victory the perfect storm (losing full access to the biggest trading block in the world EU, no free trade with US or Canada, and now all the other emerging export markets flirting to collapse next year after Trump) is aligning for the UK next year.

On the rest of the board, a simple session so far and we are ready to close the week rather early if US reports are inline or slightly miss as its expected.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,113
  • Nov 11, 2016 7:52am Nov 11, 2016 7:52am
The basket of invisibles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20161111-085056.jpg Size: 165 KB
  • #145,114
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:14am Nov 11, 2016 8:14am
Quoting goosebone
The basket of invisibles. {image}
how do I become invisible
  • #145,115
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:37am Nov 11, 2016 8:37am
Quoting sisse
A very interesting session in Europe, UK equities short circuiting from the rest of the develop world and breaking correlation with world equities. All eyes on the close today, failure to find bids on the closing sessions will trigger huge early alert signals on what is cooking in the background for next few months.
It seems to me that the Trump victory equity rally carried a bit artificially the UK equities with it, as I guess that at first it was not so obvious that UK does not / probably won't have as good position in the near future.
Either way, right now, to me UK equities seem to be aligned for a further slide down, I've re-entered short...
  • #145,116
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:52am Nov 11, 2016 8:52am
Hello All

Being a silent reader of this thread for a while enjoyed the ongoing discussions. Wasn't sure the questions I had was because of my knowledge level - basics- or the complexity of discussions and wordings especially red flag participants . Couldn't stop myself anymore in asking my questions and I appreciate if you help answering my questions or just tell me 'google it!' or 'read past posts...'.


Question:
As I understand the main focus - as mentioned not a strategy but a 'make you think' - in the thread is collecting facts and mapping the expectations in short/mid and long term from neutral to buy/sell and zoning the daily or weekly chart from extremes to high/low and flips while the timing is critical factor.

My concern in digesting this concept is the possible double games by big players: If big players know the mass expectations- which they know- , are they playing a game in same scale as to distort the 'price-time-expectation' map or usually they play minor games in shorter terms and extreme moves and TA falsifies? Currently if EURUSD starts a rally toward Dec possible hike and beyond, is it matching expectation plan/probability or is it another big players game?

Thanks
...
  • #145,117
  • Nov 11, 2016 8:58am Nov 11, 2016 8:58am
This is from Swamp Thread Quoting @MissPips

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i knew about lower court ruling would stand. supreme court can take a case w/o or before a lower court ruling. so its possible there would not be a lower court ruling beforehand. if something in either case would happen. let's say clinton got the nod (court ruling wise). i doubt many of the senators like mitch would have a leadership job.. the even number on court could be a big cluster. the guy put up is a conservative and was vetted by the same sitting congress. egg on face would be more like chicken ass on face i asked in discussion because...
Here comes the last opportunity for the clusterfuck Supreme Court challenge you predicted as a possibility if electoral college does this

https://www.change.org/p/electoral-c...src-custom_msg
  • #145,118
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:05am Nov 11, 2016 9:05am
Slightly better numbers. Thin markets right now. Last chance to break down in a clean sweep this week. Failure to take the lows in the Euro until the European close and a key week will be over across the board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,119
  • Nov 11, 2016 9:11am Nov 11, 2016 9:11am
Quoting sisse
T. It will trickling down to the mass general media in the next few days, weeks ....but you read it first and live here in the thread...a bit of bragging rights ...je je je ...just teasing the haters on the background ...for those who want to read it. Today Bloomberg: " Bonds Tumble by $1 Trillion This Week ....
did you trade it? Being "right" doesn't pay if you don't trade it. The bond slide started before the election, possible to anticipate that based on assumed Dec ffr hike. I have several of these TLT Dec/Jan put calendars from $120 to $117, all in 3x profit or better atm..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-11_0707tlt.png Size: 69 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,120
  • Edited 9:24am Nov 11, 2016 9:13am | Edited 9:24am
...and clearing first target in GOLD with the test 1243.xx ... well done all (i know a few) that rode it from the election flow ... Watch-out Euro following through any minute as its literally hanging in v. thin ice ...

sisse
Quoting sisse
{quote} Alerts triggered also in GOLD ...if you don't know what you are doing is not the time to learn... -> 1419.xx (Steel R) ----> 1315.xx (Strong R)[check] ----> 1245.xx (FLIP) ----> 1216.xx (Support) ----> 1170.xx (Very Strong S) Imminent Trump winning alert. Trading wise simple maps will be in play ... sisse
-> 1419.xx (Steel R) ----> 1315.xx (Strong R)[check] ----> 1245.xx (FLIP)[check] ----> 1216.xx (Support) ----> 1170.xx (Very Strong S)
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
69 traders viewing now