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The Really Useless Thread

  • #145,081
  • Nov 10, 2016 7:30am Nov 10, 2016 7:30am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Are you sure, I think same here as for all other. {quote}
Yes Ièm quiet sure about, that's why I asked about the CHF. But Sisse can validate.
  • #145,082
  • Nov 10, 2016 7:34am Nov 10, 2016 7:34am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} He meant buy USDJPY not buy the YEN as currency.
PS: @Fadh CHF as single currency no as pair
when he refered to buy or sell... he refered as single currency
buying Yen means selling UJ
  • #145,083
  • Nov 10, 2016 7:46am Nov 10, 2016 7:46am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Yes Im quiet sure about, that's why I asked about the CHF. But Sisse can validate.
yes obviously...yen as in UJ...same 'typo' I made every time I refer to UJ.

For now on lets all use a new convention in the thread:

Euro = Eur/usd
Euro* = Euro single currency

GBP = GBP/USD
GBP* = Sterling as single currency.

etc
etc*

that will make things very clear...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,084
  • Edited 8:28am Nov 10, 2016 8:12am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting Arshamv
{quote} What does mean "buy Yen" ??? as I know it means selling Uj and other Yen pairs
No as mentioned above my bad. I was referring to UJ.

For your (and some other that have asked) reference:

We started here before election closed:

  1. We started with mapping the 3 scenarios:

Quoting sisse
--> If exit polls or Trump sweep FL ...Equities will raise their bid in Equities and trigger all the moves in the risk off assets but here in a more orderly way after the initial knee jerk reaction as it will trigger the certainty play via RATES DEC that serve to position for the mid term swings (that is where Trump will have a heavy burden in the economy if he walk his campaign talk)

  1. we defined the order main play was (check back post for more details...right now we are playing the reverse order as you clearly say with Equities flying yst ).
  2. So the order of the FLOW was YEN (as in single currency), Gold ,etc etc for the RISK OFF part of the trade...

Quoting sisse
.....whole world in standby until US decides. Yen, Gold, CHF, Euro, Dollar, Treasuries and US equities (SPX) on the spot in main trading workspace for today until we clear exits polls and/or final results. In that order for any knee jerk reaction on a risk off event or the opposite order in a normal flow.

  1. After we defined the timing map of results before polls closed (check back posts for more details the schedule I made for the exact hours to spot the timing to track)

Quoting sisse
Timeline and potential movers and shakers for tonight:

--> The second the first State close, biggest bastards will get first hand exit polls. We'll get a clear evidence if its leaning towards risk off or uneventful.
--> 12:30 GTM (7:30pEST) we have the first teaser with OHIO ...eyes on the margin. If Trump get a wide margin, the flows will start as there will be zero liquidity...
-->01:00 GMT (08:00pmEST) FL ...that is key. Day for trading can end here. Real flows expected during this round of results /exit polls.
--> By 3:00 GMT (10:00pmEST) we...

  1. Once we started receiving results, the risk off was triggered until FL (on the schedule...check back post for the actual live flows)

Quoting sisse
{quote} Here we go....heads up ...first soft potential movers and shakers coming in a few minutes....but the real deal start on the next hour or so sisse

  1. When the results were statistically unovoidable we/markets declared the winner 3 or 4 hours before the Media and we called it live [remember we trade expectations not facts] and we triggered the exhaustion leg on the risk off leg (with Trump as winner scenario)

Quoting sisse
75% 81% chances for Trump...we started at 82% for Clinton.... we are aligning for a clean sweep. sisse declaring Trump a winner

This is a done deal.....

  1. One by one the dominos forecasted started ticking one by one [check back post for gold, euro, equities etc etc] ...until we finished ...triggering the end of the risk off part of the leg and also pointing out that ALL risk off hedges were off and was time to play the normal flows either directly there or with European opening or very late and lagging with NY.

Quoting sisse
......and YEN [s in UJ] testing 101.8x ... all risk off markets hitting respective S and R .... The sooner they announce the winner the easier it will get for trading.
... and the rest you can follow yourself for the european opening and then NY...

If you put it in context you can see that the change of outlook come from UJ not from the YEN*....

I hope is clear now ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,085
  • Nov 10, 2016 11:24am Nov 10, 2016 11:24am
If you Trade US Stock.

Here's Why Steel Stocks Are Surging Today

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/heres-...today-cm706668

Nasdaq loses ground as heavyweights slump

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN1351FV
  • #145,086
  • Nov 10, 2016 1:07pm Nov 10, 2016 1:07pm
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
If you Trade US Stock. Here's Why Steel Stocks Are Surging Today
yes, lots of repositioning, a watershed change moment in market expectations in sectors across the board, based on probable changing regulations, etc. Nothing more impressive than the Financials, check out any of them - GS, XLF, I have been buying calls for Dec to Jan. Big Pharma - check out IBB. And so on...

The market pundits' prognosis for a selloff in risk assets on a Trump victory was as wrong as the political pundits' call for a HRC cakewalk into the White House.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,087
  • Nov 10, 2016 1:08pm Nov 10, 2016 1:08pm
What country does the etc* trade?
  • #145,088
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:16pm Nov 10, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting NorthTrader
I see Danske were spot on with their reaction to a Trump win. This from 04-Nov: "We believe global equity markets would fall 3-5% on a Trump win but we would see this as a buying opportunity." Just goes to show we shouldn't dismiss the banks' opinions as lies that are meant to deceive us.
I agree, I also follow danske closely. Not alway spot on but it's a great source as well. Always interesting to broaden horizons and keep an open mind.
  • #145,089
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:19pm Nov 10, 2016 2:19pm
Quoting Pharm0r
What country does the etc* trade?
The people's democratic republic of etcetera conglomerate.
  • #145,090
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:21pm Nov 10, 2016 2:21pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} The people's democratic republic of etcetera conglomerate.
  • #145,091
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:37pm Nov 10, 2016 2:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}yes, lots of repositioning, a watershed change moment in market expectations in sectors across the board, based on probable changing regulations, etc. Nothing more impressive than the Financials, check out any of them - GS, XLF, I have been buying calls for Dec to Jan. Big Pharma - check out IBB. And so on... The market pundits' prognosis for a selloff in risk assets on a Trump victory was as wrong as the political pundits' call for a HRC cakewalk into the White House.
Thanks.

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  • #145,092
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:38pm Nov 10, 2016 2:38pm
These riots are something else....

the change.org petition to essentially circumvent the electoral college

the #notmypresident movement...

Trump voters were the uneducated bigots? I beg to differ..

NYTIMES fueling the fire something hardcore too
  • #145,093
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:41pm Nov 10, 2016 2:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}... The market pundits' prognosis for a selloff in risk assets on a Trump victory was as wrong as the political pundits' call for a HRC cakewalk into the White House.
To be honest, most they got it spot on this time as far as I can confirm in this side of the Atlantic and pretty much sure across all major players across the world. That's why the flows has been so simple and smooth to ride.

After Brexit nobody was caught with the pants down this time. Simple risk hedges in case of drama, as soon as we had a winner (any) dumping all before the crowd even woke up and riding the continuation pig on the bargain while the media and the average joe was thinking panic day on the headlines ...textbook case of asymmetry of information. Markets miles ahead of the crowd ...

FED Dec will close the year, only then we will start positioning for next quarter and beyond ...for now nothing see, same levels, same trade, same all ...no brainer environment ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,094
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:44pm Nov 10, 2016 2:44pm
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
Thanks.
ubet. I tried yesterday and today to get what I wanted in bullish spreads in GS, sumbtch was just moving too fast for me. I did buy a bunch of XLF call spreads - Dec $24's @ 2c....yesterday I got in a longshot IBB call calendar with good r:r, shown on the LTO thread. I won't be surprised to see more volatility though, just a matter of timing....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,095
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:51pm Nov 10, 2016 2:51pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} To be honest, most they got it spot on this time as far as I can confirm in this side of the Atlantic and pretty much sure across all major players across the world. That's why the flows has been so simple and smooth to ride. After Brexit nobody was caught with the pants down this time. Simple risk hedges in case of drama, as soon as we had a winner (any) dumping all before the crowd even woke up and riding the continuation pig on the bargain while the media and the average joe was thinking panic day on the headlines ...textbook case of...
Actually, I think I have it figured out, too: markets will simply never sell off. There might be a 5-10% dip on shocking news, but it will be bought back immediately, probably overnight, so you won't get any of that unless you are daytrading futures. The best bet a retail trader has is to btfd on the coattails of the big dogs, count your blessings if you manage to get that done. Still, I made money on the volatility rise for the election run-up - those scenarios are still pretty easy to trade, although they only come up in the best cases a few times a year maybe.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,096
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:51pm Nov 10, 2016 2:51pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} To be honest, most they got it spot on this time as far as I can confirm in this side of the Atlantic and pretty much sure across all major players across the world. That's why the flows has been so simple and smooth to ride. After Brexit nobody was caught with the pants down this time. Simple risk hedges in case of drama, as soon as we had a winner (any) dumping all before the crowd even woke up and riding the continuation pig on the bargain while the media and the average joe was thinking panic day on the headlines ...textbook...
that was a mighty good call that from my eyes was not seen across anywhere else in the forums. There was 400 pips out of UJ and 300 out of EU in a day on that call..

Over the weekend if you find time, would you mind breaking down the risk hedges you expected to see and how they were put in place. Perhaps an example in chewable form. Particularly the textbook case of asymmetry information. I'm not sure if I'm wording the question right...but you saw it when nobody else in the forums or twitter saw it...

I did already read your recap post on the last page. Reading and dissecting it more
  • #145,097
  • Nov 10, 2016 3:36pm Nov 10, 2016 3:36pm
Quoting Pharm0r
breaking down the risk hedges you expected ...textbook case of asymmetry information.
--> Well i can't (nobody cant) give you the break down on the exact position in a hedge plus it will be irrelevant for trading.

What you want to focus in the Macro understanding on what is happening in the market and what are short term and liquid instruments that you can position for a risk play in a binary event. In this particular case, the ones mentioned in the explanation above were the simplest one especially in the context of FX and macro markets.

We'll try to open in the next few days and discuss more interesting and advanced trading topics like this rather than only the simple ones ...

--> On Asymmetry of information

 

  1. We discussed a few weeks ago some point. In general, all advances in technology and globalisation (as much as some brexiters and Trump voters hate) has democratise access to markets and information. Random people in a thread, twitter, etc have access to almost every single piece of information and more (lots of BS, and guru, marketers shit too).

  1. Just look at this thread, we have no less than 40 nationalities at any given time sharing knowledge and trade comment live. That allow a small trader in the middle of nowhere to discuss and access to the second detail of Yellen report on inflation, etc etc ... that is POWERFUL information that a few years ago was only in the hands of very few privilege ones ...


-> The problem is now about asymmetry in time and quality.

 

  1. For example, while real money is positioning for rate hikes [random example] in the middle of major chop zone in the Euro, most retail is frustrated lost in translation hating the Euro and 'minutes' before the trend finally start the abandon ship looking for opportunities in some sharp dying trend in some exotic pair that nobody trades, while the average Joe in the street (main media etc) is publishing 'FED will never hike rates is time to take a new mortgage' ....

  1. The trend explodes, and FED is coming, real money start covering positions and taking profits, the average retail realise the major trend is there and start aiming for the fumes getting trap on each pullback that fail to hold until it finally get something but exercising maximum pain while the mass media and the average Joe is flood with information "Hikes are coming run run run run" .....

  1. ...and you know how it ends ....FED flops real money close position against the crowd triggering the pullback while laggers keep selling retraces because is a 38,2% double stochastic, MA retrace and the average JOE is one more time caught in the wrong side ....etc...and the story repeat itself ...


Point is asymmetry is because time (this is hard to solve especially in time sensitive news or information) but on the quality you can really solve if you really dig deeper and learn using the AMAZING and great information available and start filtering the 'meat from the bone' and start thinking and acting like an investor instead of a chasing gambler...

We have one topic still open this year and it's an advanced one with @hoom about position management. I will wrap up both questions in there as i think it will be very clear and useful ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #145,098
  • Edited 3:54pm Nov 10, 2016 3:40pm | Edited 3:54pm
Awesome! Thank you for the reply....can't wait to delve deeper

As a point to the time and quality information- I do see the difference immediately in my own trading by taking the information we are provided and trading the expectations (often that information is chewed down by yourself or others). Essentially, we tend to take a trade BEFORE the market has reacted (i dont mean reaction spikes, i mean actual swings)...and as often seen sometimes weeks for the trade, expectation to develop...but in the end we are with the flow. This makes sense as it is common knowledge that candle stick charts are a lagging indicator of past price. Therefor the only way to get ahead would be to take a preemptive trade ...thus trading the expectation.

Love that fact about this thread, when we are on the right side trading the expectation...the only lacking ingredient is patience. The difficult part for me personally is determining the correct expectation.

I realize I only touched a micro part of your post- but that's me thinking out loud and connecting some of the dots to my own trading, in particular trading expectations based on current quality information.

It's funny to see how much of a micro view I've had about markets before....although that's not to say money cant be made from a micro view
  • #145,099
  • Nov 10, 2016 4:07pm Nov 10, 2016 4:07pm
Quoting sisse
What you want to focus in the Macro understanding on what is happening in the market and what are short term and liquid instruments that you can position for a risk play in a binary event.
What binary event? All you need to know: BTFD. Markets are not selling off on the outcome of so-called binary events, regardless of which end of the stick gets dipped in shit. The "binary events" are being used (moi) to trade volatility in the run-up, and then to btfd. Risk markets will sell off only on some unscheduled shock, like the renminbi devaluation of Aug '15, a direct asteroid strike, or some other exogenous atrocity. And those are impossible to trade.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145,100
  • Edited 4:21pm Nov 10, 2016 4:07pm | Edited 4:21pm
...and we rolled. Slightly bullish daily close with bulls barely hanging in imminent break down alerts triggered but hanging with their fingernails at the end. This look set without some kind of external help from somewhere but like always no break no shake so...

But more interestingly and for those still following this conversation ...we have? guess what> ..."ROLL PLAY" for today for the 3er time this Quarter. Failure to take 1.092x until tomorrow Europe will leave the Euro in need of a Miracle TA wise [only] for this month.

sisse

Quoting The Fool
{quote}Actually, I think I have it figured out, too: markets will simply never sell off. There might be a 5-10% dip on shocking news, but it will be bought back immediately, probably overnight, so you won't get any of that unless you are daytrading futures. The best bet a retail trader has is to btfd on the coattails of the big dogs, count your blessings if you manage to get that done. Still, I made money on the volatility rise for the election run-up - those scenarios are still pretty easy to trade, although they only come up in the best...
They will sooner rather than later next year.

As you well know how equities work...+100 choppy, sluggish and slow daily rallies, selloff in 2 session of -6% each on a really bad news, buy the dip another 100 choppy, sluggish et..etc etc rinse and repeat until the big bastards screw badly (subprime etc) or the economy really struggle then we have a recession one every economic cycle with some major ones once or twice in a century ....

--> I don't know if you remember, there was a famous thread/website/blog somewhere in the internet before 2008 that run a test in the ES to put a stop 2% below the 2 days back low or similar... and got sometime like 30 losses in a universe of 5000 days ....basically showing that fund manager are overrated and overpaid. [most still are IMO]

Too much money involved in US equities, from pensions, governments, you name it ...as a whole it takes a massive screw up and the biggest hands in the world really running on panic to dent an uptrend ...


Quoting The Fool
{quote} What binary event? All y...
Drama or no Drama that was the question for election short term. Winner next trade, will trade Trump later was the answer....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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