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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,561
  • Nov 7, 2016 7:36pm Nov 7, 2016 7:36pm
Quoting Lock
13:59+1GMT Note that if pit session will open around here, we will have a triple pass pit gap at 24685-24855 because preUS is going to open with a substantial gap down from Friday pit low at 24855: carry this info forward.
USD is ready to spike with a Hillary win.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,562
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:30am Nov 8, 2016 2:30am
16/11/08 TUESDAY 09:30 +1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday GB and pit sessions left unsolved all the mess left by previous price action also adding some new complexities to it. Now we have a pit US triple pass gap at 24685-24855 and a GB double pass gap at 2451-24625. Also Pit session left a poor low at 23785 and preUS a poor high at 2436. Today Tolyo left a poor low at 2385 and some weak ref as the RN 24000 tagged by Tokyo period O.
I imagine that a lot of this complexity will be cover today after during or before major news.
Current GB session opened inside yesterday range 2380-24325 and it is now testing above it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,563
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:06am Nov 8, 2016 3:06am
Hi Lock,

Yesterday I started with filling in the levels as you do in your charts. I must say it makes a lot clear and sometimes a move looks allso logical for me....so far so good!

Do I understand it correct if a level is reached tha we can delete that level for further use?
So actually all untouched highs / lows / gaps / anomalies etcetc.... are valid for interpretation.

regards, HappyMe
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,564
  • Nov 8, 2016 8:55am Nov 8, 2016 8:55am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, Yesterday I started with filling in the levels as you do in your charts. I must say it makes a lot clear and sometimes a move looks allso logical for me....so far so good! Do I understand it correct if a level is reached tha we can delete that level for further use? So actually all untouched highs / lows / gaps / anomalies etcetc.... are valid for interpretation. regards, HappyMe

Yes the corrected references have to be removed but only if are corrected by the "right" participants. For example the poor high left by yesterday preUS session has not been corrected by today GB session even if today GB session high has been established above it. Why? Because those who act during a GB session are not those who will act during the following preUS session. For most of US participants (specially strongest hands and bigger timeframes), GB is only overnight time and a lot of US trading do not use stops for overnight activity., meaning that probably we still have stops above that preUS poor high after the test of today GB above it. Best L.
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  • #1,565
  • Nov 8, 2016 9:02am Nov 8, 2016 9:02am
16/11/08 TUESDAY 16:02 +1GMT
EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

GB liquidated all the Tokyo activity and made a final test downside with a spike with base at 2401. Pre US opened inside yesterday pit session balance (25785-2418) and continued downside just to let current pit session to open with a little gap downside from yesterday pit low.
Note that Today preUS left a poor high at 2394 that has to be considered the second in a row after the other one left yesterday at 2436. And also GB made a poor high at 2439.
Note also that the little gap downside of today is a double pass pit gap because it is also part of the previous gap upside from 11.02-03.
Consider that right now we have huge weaknesses above and very big weak references below, so watch out.

PS: note that yesterday pit high is weak as it is a tag of a previous pit low at 2417 of 11.03 session. So if price will find acceptation back inside yesterday pit balance, that high will be a very probable target.
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  • #1,566
  • Nov 9, 2016 12:18am Nov 9, 2016 12:18am
16/11/09 WEDNSDAY 07:18 +1GMT (edited untill 07:26)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday action left the situation as complex as it was the day before. GB made a test downside (spike 2401-2380*) that has been followed by a pit balance session: both the triple pit pass gap and the double GB pass gap remained untested and currently those two multi pass gaps incredibly became "quadruple" pass gap for pit session at 24685-24855 and triple pass gap for GB session at 2451-24625. Current Tokyo session is in fact acting above both of them. I suggest to carry these information forward because I've never seen a "quadruple" pass gap surviving in a market.

Note also that all this action, including the last 5 days of price action, occurred above the pit double pass gap at 23365-2344 and that yesterday pit session established a poor low at 2363 "only" less than 20 pips above this area. So in my opinion next price action should solve in some way all these "anomalies" in a way or in an other.

Considering the volatility remember where are the main nearest composite pocs : 2233, 2293, 2390, 2643, 2733.
Remember also the old GB gap downside still in place at 24995-2652 and the old pit gap downside at 25565-2601: these gaps are the real resistances for a substantial correction upside back inside the upper monthly/weekly distribution above 2795.

If preserved we have still the possibility of a separated distribution downside for cable and eventually a new test of the "all time" low. If not and if price will be accepted inside the upper monthly/weekly distribution we will have a possible substantial interruption or at least an "aging" of the major trend downside.

*For upcoming GB session (open at 9:00 +1GMT) spike rules will apply: if price will open above the spike base 2401 we could consider the yesterday GB test downside rejected, at least initially. If price will open below it or even below the spike bottom at 2380 (meaning a further GB gap downside) we could consider the test downside accepted (at least initially).
Note that in both cases (below the bottom of the spike or above the base of the spike and also above the yesterday GB range high 2439 we are speaking of the presence of a further excess: a gap. So in both cases we will have a double excess in a particular direction and this generally is a strong signal in that possible direction.
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  • #1,567
  • Nov 9, 2016 8:52am Nov 9, 2016 8:52am
16/11/09 WEDNSDAY 15:52 +1GMT
EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

PreUS opened inside yesterday pit range, made a test below yesterday preUS low and closed inside yes pit range again. Then pit session opened inside yesterday pit session range too (exactly one single pip below yesterday open at 2370) went below yesterday pit low, tagging exactly yesterday preUS low at 23603, and went up again inside yesterday pit range. Now it's balancing around the main composite poc at 2390.

Note that pit session didn't test the weak overnight low at 2352 level where GB tagged the Tokyo low. Nor it has been able for now to take out the double pass pit gap at 23365-23444.
Remember that we still have a triple pass pit gap above at 24685-24855. All this means that we are in a situation where both the complexities above and below are still unresolved for now.
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  • #1,568
  • Nov 9, 2016 10:16am Nov 9, 2016 10:16am
17:16+1GMT

Quoting Lock
16/11/09 WEDNSDAY 15:52 +1GMT EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT ... Remember that we still have a triple pass pit gap above at 24685-24855. All this means that we are in a situation where both the complexities above and below are still unresolved for now.
It is filling it but watch out because it left downside a minus development at 24075-2437 and C period low was at half back at 2383. Plus the current session low is a tag of yesterday preUS low at 23603. Also current D period is extremely elongated. This is clearly a short covering for now.
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  • #1,569
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:50pm Nov 9, 2016 2:50pm
Quoting Lock
17:16+1GMT {quote} It is filling it but watch out because it left downside a minus development at 24075-2437 and C period low was at half back at 2383. Plus the current session low is a tag of yesterday preUS low at 23603. Also current D period is extremely elongated. This is clearly a short covering for now.
21:50 +1GMT
Period D totally retraced and C period minus developement 24075-2437 filled. As normal the short covering built inventories too long that has been eventually corrected right after the post with a liquidation. Note that the current high is poor at 2483 and the 3 pips left of the old triple pass pit gap is very suspect. H period low is weak as at round number 2400 and the cluster K L M periods at 24437, 2nd weekly balance high tag, is clearly weak too. Let's see tomorrow. Best L.

NOTE: I didn't followed this last liquidation because I was very tired after the night maraton but also because I didn't like the poor high and I did not want to take too much risk considering the volatility. Initially I put a short right after the break below E balance but then I scaled out most of it and evenually closed everything.
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  • #1,570
  • Nov 10, 2016 1:30am Nov 10, 2016 1:30am
16/11/10 THURSDAY 08:30+1GMT

EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday didn't solve the situation left by previous days. The triple pass pit gap above, even if it has been substantially reduced by yesterday pit session short covering, is still in place with its 3 pips at 2483(yes pit poor high) - 24055(Friday 11.04 low).
Also the lower double pass pit gap at 23365-23444 is still in place. As it is still in place the double pss GB gap at 2453 (yesterday GB poor high)- 24625 (Friday 11.04 GB low)

Note that yesterday GB session put a low at 2352 tagging the Tokyo low just a pip below it. While the following pit session established a low tagging the previous preUS low at 2360 level. Both of them are clearly very weak.

Also the O period of yesterday pit session made its low just a pip below the day before pit unchanged level 23755.

Current Tokyo session is acting inside yesterday Tokyo range (23513-25455) and it managed to make a poor high at 2442 (just a pip below the 2nd weekly balance high) and a weak low at 2394 (just a pip below yesterday Tokyo unchanged) Also Tokyo period " I" low is at round number 2400.

Conclusions.

For GB session the main question will regards the yesterday weak low at 2352 level and the double pass gap at 2453-24625. If it will solve the gap above without the correction of the weak low: watch out. The same thing if the opposite. Let's see how it will develop.

About the pit session we need to solve one or both of the multi pass gaps above and below: if not we will remain in balance in order to have enough strength to do so. But I will make an update after GB unchanged because the open level of the upcoming pit will be determinant to understand the real intention of current participans.
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  • #1,571
  • Nov 10, 2016 7:55am Nov 10, 2016 7:55am
16/11/10 THURSDAY 14:55+1GMT

EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

After a test above yesterday GB range high today GB session completely corrected the Tokyo inventories also removing all the weak refs left during night. Eventually GB was not able to correct the weak low at 2352 level and it even established a poor low at 2377 that now is an other thing to solve downside. Current preUS opened inside yesterday pit range (23605-2483) and initial acceptation of it is expected.

The important thing for the upcoming pit session will be to verify which issue it will attempt to solve first (if any) of the two main left by previous sessions: the lower double pass pit gap at 23365-23444 and the upper triple pass pit gap upsdie at 2483(yes pit poor high) - 24855(Friday 11.04 low). Also above we got the yesterday poor high at 24855 while below we still have the yesterday weak pit low tagging the pre US low at 23605.

Currently we have also a preUS poor high at 2340 and the very weak GB C period high at 24437 tagging the 2nd weekly balance high.

Today a gap should not eventually save the situation letting price to skip weaknesses above or below, because a further gap will only complicate more the already very complex environment.

In case of balance remember that the main closest composite poc is at 2390.
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  • #1,572
  • Nov 10, 2016 8:27am Nov 10, 2016 8:27am
Quoting Lock
16/11/10 THURSDAY 14:55+1GMT EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT After a test above yesterday GB range high today GB session completely corrected the Tokyo inventories also removing all the weak refs left during night. Eventually GB was not able to correct the weak low at 2352 level and it even established a poor low at 2377 that now is an other thing to solve downside. Current preUS opened inside yesterday pit range (23605-2483) and initial acceptation of it is expected. The important thing for the upcoming pit session will be to verify which issue it will...
Shall you please update a picture of this ?

Thank you
  • #1,573
  • Nov 10, 2016 9:43am Nov 10, 2016 9:43am
Quoting Devart
{quote} Shall you please update a picture of this ? Thank you
Currently the multi pass pit gap upside has already been removed. I will post a summary if I will find the needed time this evening. Best L.

The current situation as required:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 172 KB
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  • #1,574
  • Nov 10, 2016 11:33am Nov 10, 2016 11:33am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Currently the multi pass pit gap upside has already been removed. I will post a summary if I will find the needed time this evening. Best L. The current situation as required: {image}
Wow, hats off to you there, over 500 pips in a day? The time of GBP is here.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,575
  • Nov 10, 2016 12:05pm Nov 10, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Wow, hats off to you there, over 500 pips in a day? The time of GBP is here.
Thank you but:

it is a demo and I'm used to scale out my positions, so if you see 100 pips it could mean a single position splitted in let's say 10 minor closes:15+20+13+...
In fact if you go to my page you will see the copy/paste on live where the same positions are closed at once and as you see the pips income is less then the demo one. By the way the "live" account is only a testing one with "fake" money on it just to exercise or to test some idea. My real account is similar to the live test one but with even less positions opened and obviously with normal % (similar to the profit % of the demo: 0.05, 0.06 etc.)

By the way I added the link to the trade report just to show to those who are interested my entries and escs. Note that the stops are totally remote form price entries and this is due to the fact that I use hidden SL and TP. Also I generally close my positions directly in the 95 % of the time and more. The SL and the TP are only a security tool and not the way a trader should close his positions. The server SL and TP are only an extreme form of warranty in the case my workstations will go down and also my remote machines will do the same (very rare event).

Finally, about today let me say that I'm definetely not proud of my trading. I made a lot of silly things and I lost a lot of opportunities: the fact is that I was really scared by the waknesses above and below at the same time. Consequently my conviction was near to zero today. So my today positions far from being a good example to follow are a textbook of what a good trader should not do. Best L.
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  • #1,576
  • Nov 10, 2016 2:11pm Nov 10, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Currently the multi pass pit gap upside has already been removed. I will post a summary if I will find the needed time this evening. Best L. The current situation as required: {image}
Thank you
  • #1,577
  • Edited 1:12am Nov 11, 2016 12:55am | Edited 1:12am
16/11/11 FRIDAY 07:55 +1GMT (edited untill 08:05)

EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday the pit session eventually managed to fill the old triple pass pit gap completely (2483 - 24855) and built an upper distribution above it: so the session was a double distribution trend day. Distributions are: upper one at 25085-2584, lower one at 24505-24985. So we got a minus development between them at 24985-25085.
The late afternoon pull back low is at 2538: carry this information forward for upcoming pit session because it is the main reference to verify acceptation or rejection of the yesterday attempt higher. Remember anyway that today is USD bank holiday, consequently any test made by today pit session will not have a great significance. Note that current market is developing above the old pit double pass gap at 23365-23444: this gap is particularly important because it formed for now a huge island reversal for pit session activity (see daily chart)

The GB sesion situation is even more interesting because we left downside the weak low at 2352 level and specially the double pass gap at 2453-24625: if Tokyo activity will remain araund current price level GB will open with a further gap upside from yesterday GB session high at 2455, consequently that double pass gap will became a "TRIPLE" pass gap. Also for GB then we have a possible island reversal.

Above the old GB gap downside could be filled up to 26525 but consider that right now we are right in the middle of it so the situation is very complex. Note the the old pit gap downside 2584-2601 is also the last part of the Sydney minus development from 10.06-07. Also note that we are pretty close to its poor high at 26215. (where all the liquidation started during 10.06-07 night)

This is a daily chart where the GB sessions' ranges are highlighted with a magenta color.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 86 KB


The current session situation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 194 KB
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  • #1,578
  • Nov 11, 2016 3:09am Nov 11, 2016 3:09am
Quoting Lock
16/11/11 FRIDAY 07:55 +1GMT (edited ...) EARLY MORNING REPORT... Above the old GB gap downside could be filled up to 26525 but consider that right now we are right in the middle of it so the situation is very complex. Note the the old pit gap downside 2584-2601 is also the last part of the Sydney minus development from 10.06-07. Also note that we are pretty close to its poor high at 26215. (where all the liquidation started..
10:09 +1GMT
UPDATE

10.06-07 Sydney poor high tagged at the pip 26215. Old minus development 2584-2601 filled. A lot of single pips for B period. Old GB gap downside still in place up to 26525
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  • #1,579
  • Nov 11, 2016 7:01am Nov 11, 2016 7:01am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 10:09 +1GMT UPDATE 10.06-07 Sydney poor high tagged at the pip 26215. Old minus development 2584-2601 filled. A lot of single pips for B period. Old GB gap downside still in place up to 26525
Hit GBP/AUD last night, woke up and logged in my account and was like whoa!
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,580
  • Nov 11, 2016 10:00am Nov 11, 2016 10:00am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 10:09 +1GMT UPDATE 10.06-07 Sydney poor high tagged at the pip 26215. Old minus development 2584-2601 filled. A lot of single pips for B period. Old GB gap downside still in place up to 26525
17:00 +1GMT
UPDATE

GB session concluded its rally just above the gap at 26525: as normal it found slightly stronger timeframes ready to sell above it. Then it spent some time filling it with volume and eventually pit US session went back downside to correct and fill the huge minus development left by the single pips of GB B period that, by the way, was also a double pass pit gap. Note infact the reaction after the fill of it (exactly the same automatic buy mirroring the automatic selling above the GB gap upside.)

Because of the US bank holiday unfortunately I didn't work, spending all the afternoon playing only with my demos and my tests.

See you next week, Best L.
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