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AUD/USD

  • #99,481
  • Nov 8, 2016 1:21pm Nov 8, 2016 1:21pm
Quoting rashidyousuf
is there any one could tell me why aud/usd and nzd/usd going north on this election....shit
If Trump gets in would you want to be holding usd? Due to interest rate AUD and NZD are best place to hold while shit sorts itself out.
  • #99,482
  • Nov 8, 2016 1:22pm Nov 8, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting rashidyousuf
is there any one could tell me why aud/usd and nzd/usd going north on this election....shit
Look at the HTFs, say monthly and weekly. For example, AUDUSD has been in a northward mode (a channel) since May 2016.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #99,483
  • Nov 8, 2016 1:31pm Nov 8, 2016 1:31pm
Up until 0.79-0.80,but than I see it way down, maybe even tonight we will see a big drop
  • #99,484
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:20pm Nov 8, 2016 3:20pm
Quoting rashidyousuf
is there any one could tell me why aud/usd and nzd/usd going north on this election....shit
Thin market for one. But all the comdols have rallied over night following the USD. Market is starting pricing in a clinton victory once over Comdols may be sold off again.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,485
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:29pm Nov 8, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Thin market for one. But all the comdols have rallied over night following the USD. Market is starting pricing in a clinton victory once over Comdols may be sold off again.
 
I agree.
Just optimism,  hype, stock market. Thin market, trendlines...
 
Sure it looks scary, going up - and i see people losing money,  me too but it's just a balloon. 77... 78....haha.
I remember when it dropped to 0.95 and all were pushing again for parity
Never again will buy this....
Now i play microlots and learn patience.
GL 
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #99,486
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:52pm Nov 8, 2016 3:52pm
Quoting Not-KPMG
{quote} Â I agree. Just optimism, Â hype, stock market. Thin market, trendlines... Â Sure it looks scary, going up - and i see people losing money, Â me too but it's just a balloon. 77... 78....haha. I remember when it dropped to 0.95 and all were pushing again for parity Never again will buy this.... Now i play microlots and learn patience. GLÂ
Micro lots is the only way to trade unless you have 100k balance
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,487
  • Nov 8, 2016 6:11pm Nov 8, 2016 6:11pm
Showing signs of direction. A Trump victory will tank AUD. Clinton Victory stay in range.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,488
  • Nov 8, 2016 7:15pm Nov 8, 2016 7:15pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
Showing signs of direction. A Trump victory will tank AUD. Clinton Victory stay in range.
coming down hot. might just be for a while though
  • #99,489
  • Nov 8, 2016 7:24pm Nov 8, 2016 7:24pm
Quoting billycajun93
{quote} coming down hot. might just be for a while though
This will be until Trump's foreign policy (specifically with China) is determined.
  • #99,490
  • Nov 8, 2016 7:46pm Nov 8, 2016 7:46pm
Is there anyone here who has some understanding of the differing reactions to the U.S. Presidential election? For instance, EU and GU shot way up while AU and NZU dropped like rocks. UJ dove while UC climbed. Were there reasons for the differing reactions, or was it just coincidental. If Clinton winning the election strengthens, or at least supports, the Dollar why would there be differing reactions to pairs with the USD in the same spot in the pairing? Just tryng to understand.
  • #99,491
  • Nov 8, 2016 7:51pm Nov 8, 2016 7:51pm
Quoting bobby2
Is there anyone here who has some understanding of the differing reactions to the U.S. Presidential election? For instance, EU and GU shot way up while AU and NZU dropped like rocks. UJ dove while UC climbed. Were there reasons for the differing reactions, or was it just coincidental. If Clinton winning the election strengthens, or at least supports, the Dollar why would there be differing reactions to pairs with the USD in the same spot in the pairing? Just tryng to understand.
Because of stocks and oil correlation atm.

EU/GU up = stocks down

AU/NU down = stocks down

UJ down = stocks down due to Yen correlate with UJ

UC up = oil down

oil down = stocks down
  • #99,492
  • Nov 8, 2016 7:51pm Nov 8, 2016 7:51pm
Quoting bobby2
Is there anyone here who has some understanding of the differing reactions to the U.S. Presidential election? For instance, EU and GU shot way up while AU and NZU dropped like rocks. UJ dove while UC climbed. Were there reasons for the differing reactions, or was it just coincidental. If Clinton winning the election strengthens, or at least supports, the Dollar why would there be differing reactions to pairs with the USD in the same spot in the pairing? Just tryng to understand.
Australian economy depends greatly on China, and Trump has mentioned several times that he will re-acess the US ties with China which draws a big question mark. The other currencies mainly depend on the USD or Europe (which is linked in a way to the USD) and therefore to summarise: Trump wins = AUD sink = USD sink = other currencies up. A Clinton win will have the opposite affect.

However, keep in mind this will be for the short term until how Trump will be running the foreign policy is clearer.
  • #99,493
  • Nov 8, 2016 8:00pm Nov 8, 2016 8:00pm
Quoting bobby2
Is there anyone here who has some understanding of the differing reactions to the U.S. Presidential election? For instance, EU and GU shot way up while AU and NZU dropped like rocks. UJ dove while UC climbed. Were there reasons for the differing reactions, or was it just coincidental. If Clinton winning the election strengthens, or at least supports, the Dollar why would there be differing reactions to pairs with the USD in the same spot in the pairing? Just tryng to understand.

Very simple, risk off.

Selling risk currencies, buying safe haven.

That means amongst the majors, AUD NZD CAD sold. JPY bought.

Currencies not so closely linked to risk will rise versus the usd as the usd sells off.

Meanwhile the aud is looking like a good buy.
  • #99,494
  • Edited 8:46pm Nov 8, 2016 8:08pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} Very simple, risk off. Selling risk currencies, buying safe haven. That means amongst the majors, AUD NZD CAD sold. JPY bought. Currencies not so closely linked to risk will rise versus the usd as the usd sells off. Meanwhile the aud is looking like a good buy.
still negligible effect on NZD for last several days, just look AUD and NZD....and NZD stays puzzle why is so strong.
  • #99,495
  • Nov 8, 2016 8:42pm Nov 8, 2016 8:42pm
Thank you to everyone for your answers and opinions. I appreciate it.
  • #99,496
  • Nov 8, 2016 9:00pm Nov 8, 2016 9:00pm
Quoting bobby2
Is there anyone here who has some understanding of the differing reactions to the U.S. Presidential election? For instance, EU and GU shot way up while AU and NZU dropped like rocks. UJ dove while UC climbed. Were there reasons for the differing reactions, or was it just coincidental. If Clinton winning the election strengthens, or at least supports, the Dollar why would there be differing reactions to pairs with the USD in the same spot in the pairing? Just tryng to understand.
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} AUD NZD and CAD are all risk currencies and in times of uncertainty they will be sold off. Trumps policies will further slow Chinese and Japanese production which will eventually effect the demand for Aussie commodities, unless the US intends to buy from AU which I highly doubt. Trump wants to stop Japanese imported cars and Chinese products into America and re establish American manufacturing.
Dont have much time to explain it now but have said in another post briefly.

If trump elected AUD will hit .65 in months and possibly .59 as predicted 12 months ago.

EUR GBP JPY CHF all up as USD tanks. AUD NZD CAD all go with the USD
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,497
  • Nov 8, 2016 9:03pm Nov 8, 2016 9:03pm
Quoting ruma29
{quote} still negligible effect on NZD for last several days, just look AUD and NZD....and NZD stays puzzle why is so strong.
I think because if anything at all, the AUD is more vulnerable than the nzd. Strong links between AUD and china, and with all that trump rhetoric Yiu can bet the implications are negative AUD. Perhaps the AUD is also being sold a little by habit in a risk off environment.
  • #99,498
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:30am Nov 9, 2016 2:30am
Classic sell the rumour buy the fact today. Happened so fast I didn't even have a chance to get in. The risk now is to the upside, I feel. If the USD sells off again, I doubt it will happen in a risk-off environment so there's nothing weighing on it.
  • #99,499
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:44am Nov 9, 2016 2:44am
If you guys think you can predict how pairs are going to react based on news and different event that happen in the world then you're going to continue to lose money.
Stop trying to trade fundamentals and use the information that we have as retail traders, which is a chart with data plotted on it. Learn how to trade technically. Learn how to read a chart.

I predicted this pattern to complete like this not because of a presidential election, not because of what Russia or China are doing. But because I study wave patterns. The market obviously moves in waves and these waves create patterns that repeat themselves all the time. These patterns are expected to behave in a certain way 90% of the time giving you a high probability to be in the next move after the pattern completes.

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  • #99,500
  • Nov 9, 2016 2:48am Nov 9, 2016 2:48am
Now to get into a short on AU you want to wait for some type of flag pattern to sell


The flag may not be this big or may be bigger, there is no way of telling that. You just need to be able to recognize that the pattern is form to be able to sell it.
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