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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,881
  • Nov 8, 2016 1:43pm Nov 8, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting sisse
We were here when the conversation was derail into politics.... {quote} Well I was more interesting for tonight to build maps flows for timing and trading rather that the actual election results. --> Basically by +/- 01:00 GMT (08:00pmEST) we will get FL exit polls. If the margin is large we pretty much will see markets switching and killing the risk off mode as statistically the odds will be nearly zero for a surprise. We trade expectation not facts and the early you get in .... Assuming all the earlier results before FL and exit polls goes +/-inline...
sisse, can u write more on this part "...Equities will raise their bid in Equities and trigger all the moves in the risk off assets but here in a more orderly way after the initial knee jerk reaction as it will trigger the certainty play via RATES DEC that serve to position for the mid term swings (that is where Trump will have a heavy burden in the economy if he walk his campaign talk)".

I mean the certainty play - Im still confused how trump victory translates to rates =) hes gonna get into office in January = his wictory can lower mid term rates expectations via uncertainty. On the other hand =) potentional protectionst policies = higher inflation probable =) on contrary can lead to higher mid term rates expectations. Short term? = FED will want to raise in DEC to get as high as possible to have some ammunition just in case. On the other hand = bastards are gonna interpret it as no hike in DEC? So for me the rates play is completely unclear.
  • #144,882
  • Edited 2:28pm Nov 8, 2016 2:06pm | Edited 2:28pm
@sisse, I have not read your pm yet- but to be clear, I have nothing but respect for you (you know that) and feel like your posts we hypocritical. In your quote you said I need to dig a bit deeper into your posts, and my feeling is that you needed to be a bit clearer in your posts, as on the surface- they looked as I said. Regardless, you've since made your thoughts clearer on the subject and the voting demographic therein. So thank you.

The purpose of my post was to accomplish exactly what it did, as I know many intelligent Trump supporters (doctors, two current naval generals, a hand full of engineers and even, believe it or not my GS partner friend)- so no more for me to say there and thank you for your response and your clarification.

My side of the coin, is that Clinton has absolutely too much controversy around her, and that her core principals are evil. Neither her nor her husband represent American values (neither does Trump for that matter) and despite what many of her supporters and campaign say, her track record shows she is absolutely pro war. Again, as is Trump. The fact of war is inevitable for the United States so far as I'm concerned with these two candidates.

The problem with both of these candidates, is that everything bad you have read about them in the papers is true. Factually backed up with recordings and or email. Both Hillary and Trump will say whatever they have to say to get into office. They are both completely dangerous to society as a whole. I see a path of destruction either way, and thus I voted the way I did. The fact that either of these candidates are even in the running for the most powerful position in the world is completely despicable and an absolute disgrace to not only America, but the entirety of society, that we've build such a society that our top leadership options is this bad.

The bright side (to me) for the first time, is that the president is largely a puppet for corporations and banks, therefor- there are at least some roadblocks. Also our do-nothing Congress/Judicial branch, another road block that while less and less relevant to the presidents power...is still relevant for now. It is also my hope that this election has shown the lowest we can sink to (never say never)- so the only way is up from here as far as future presidential candidates are concerned.
  • #144,883
  • Edited 2:27pm Nov 8, 2016 2:13pm | Edited 2:27pm
My opinion on the elections for trading, you're seeing the election legs in play- which seem to already be pricing a Hillary win.

With that in mind, there are some large gaps left to be filled, so those are good places to look for continuation trades in the future should Hillary in fact win.

If Trump wins, S&P will be completely murdered and carry the rest of the board as it is currently trading 100% on faith...(you thought the emails were bad)
  • #144,884
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:22pm Nov 8, 2016 2:22pm
The only way to get blurred in logic (emotional) about the election and its consequences outside of trading frame of reference is to take it too seriously. I catch myself doing it, and I see all those with views I respect doing it too. Next week we will all be reminded of how impotent these blowhards really are. And the only real losers at that point are FB and CNN.
  • #144,885
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:27pm Nov 8, 2016 2:27pm
they are showing some non official results in key states
https://news.vice.com/story/live-ele...icenewstwitter
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_elect...t_tracker.html
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #144,886
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:30pm Nov 8, 2016 2:30pm
Not sure if indicative of what's to come but Trump just filed his first (of many?) voting lawsuit in NV.
  • #144,887
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:30pm Nov 8, 2016 2:30pm
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  • #144,888
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:31pm Nov 8, 2016 2:31pm
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  • #144,889
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:37pm Nov 8, 2016 2:37pm
I lost it- I absolutely died

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  • #144,890
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:42pm Nov 8, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting Pharm0r
My opinion on the elections for trading, you're seeing the election legs in play- which seem to already be pricing a Hillary win. With that in mind, there are some large gaps left to be filled, so those are good places to look for continuation trades in the future should Hillary in fact win. If Trump wins, S&P will be completely murdered and carry the rest of the board as it is currently trading 100% on faith...(you thought the emails were bad)
feels very much like pre-brexit hours. someone may get slaped very hard by de-globalization

P.S.: that mainstream media bias and censtorship in favor of Clinton has been for some time veeery disgusting and funny this time
  • #144,891
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:53pm Nov 8, 2016 2:53pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, can u write more on this part "...Equities will raise their bid in Equities and trigger all the moves in the risk off assets but here in a more orderly way after the initial knee jerk reaction as it will trigger the certainty play via RATES DEC that serve to position for the mid term swings (that is where Trump will have a heavy burden in the economy if he walk his campaign talk)". I mean the certainty play - Im still confused how trump victory translates to rates =) hes gonna get into office in January = his wictory can lower mid...
I think that the interpretation of no hike in Dec if Trump wins come along with the fact that Fed members would likely be cautious on this one as they would face an

indirect threat from Trump presidancy aftewards and my guess is that Fed is not politically independant so whoever is in position to push the rates higher would like to keep

that position in the future by making no step in the wrong direction of what their next president would like to see ie their hands would be tied or that's what investors

would think probably !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,892
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:06pm Nov 8, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting Pharm0r
My opinion on the elections for trading, you're seeing the election legs in play- which seem to already be pricing a Hillary win. With that in mind, there are some large gaps left to be filled, so those are good places to look for continuation trades in the future should Hillary in fact win. If Trump wins, S&P will be completely murdered and carry the rest of the board as it is currently trading 100% on faith...(you thought the emails were bad)
In fact , what you may see as an unfilled gap could have been actually filled but you are looking for the wrong timeframe.

a gap unfilled on H1 or H4 is a gap filled on d1 or w1 so it is not a gap anymore .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,893
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:07pm Nov 8, 2016 3:07pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} In fact , what you may see as an unfilled gap could have been actually filled but you are looking for the wrong timeframe. a gap unfilled on H1 or H4 is a gap filled on d1 or w1 so it is not a gap anymore .
UJ

I don't believe gaps have to be filled regardless, however; they offer trigger points as well as any other TA

But if we follow that logic, lets just watch the monthly and gaps wont exsist
  • #144,894
  • Edited 4:00pm Nov 8, 2016 3:28pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse, can u write more on this part "..Equities will raise their bid in Equities and trigger all the moves in the risk off assets but here in a more orderly way after the initial knee jerk reaction as it will trigger the certainty play via RATES DEC that serve to position for the mid term swings (that is where Trump will have a heavy burden in the economy if he walk his campaign talk)".
---> 'Certainty play for the election flow' = As long as we have a winner there is no drama for the flow. Certainty meaning we got the news, back to economics, markets and 'normal' trading.

--> "Equities rising the bid for the year" = meaning most hands will have to recalibrate expectations next year. Time to clear, analyze, digest, plan and get ready for next year and beyond as so far we have very random and poorly delineate set of policies from the Trump camp with a dislocated party and a country split in two..... Odds of packing bags and taking profits for the year is already on the making but $$$ is still holding for that last potential relief rally ....

--> "RATES DEC play" with a clear winner, no drama short term, a huge ??? for next year, markets will shift to the normal flows we were trading before the last FBI tweet to complete the rate legs especially with Equities ready to play ball retreating until further data....

--> "For the MID term ..." not in play at all for today. Trump winning will only unlock that door nothing else. If that happens will go in details but in a nutshell as for his official plan and comments, the second largest free trade agreement in the world is under threat, protectionism on the raise, unilateralism in foreign policy, weak fiscal management and zero option to build constructive bridges for free market and trade globally.....

In general mid term, soft for the US economy, bad for global markets, Financials, Dollar and Equities, good for Commodities Gold especially OIL and especially good for defence, security, energies related stocks (welcome back!!! HAL [Halliburton] and co) as they will have killer 4 years..... basically we will be entering in buy the dip mode in some specific sectors but in standby/leaning to sell until further data in everything else.

Basically certainty play whoever wins means complete RMT leg....anything else is drama and short circuit in risk off asset classes ....

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
@sisse, I have not read your pm yet- but to be clear, I have nothing but respect for you (you know that) and feel like your posts we hypocritical. In your quote you said I need to dig a ...
No worries, I just say "WTF was that mate?"

What you are describing is the general feeling and the social consequence and price the US and Europe are paying for the last financial crisis with the baby boomers retiring and the apathetic generation in between that has ignored political participation and took democracy for granted for too long. Letting big money and corporations to be the puppet master of dinosaur politicians and the average Joe paying the cost of their mistakes.

Now the generation below (+/- in your age range) but not the Millennials are having to deal with the costs, feel left outside of the decision making but having to face a fast changing word without the easy ride of the older generations .... natural reaction vote 'against the establishment' whatever that means .... but sadly there also leaving a huge vacuum in between for the extreme right and left to fish in the middle ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,895
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:30pm Nov 8, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} I think that the interpretation of no hike in Dec if Trump wins come along with the fact that Fed members would likely be cautious on this one as they would face an indirect threat from Trump presidancy aftewards and my guess is that Fed is not politically independant so whoever is in position to push the rates higher would like to keep that position in the future by making no step in the wrong direction of what their next president would like to see ie their hands would be tied or that's what investors would think probably !
actually, If I was to guess I would go for the opposite. Still I believe they are pretty much trump-independent (do not see into the internal politics though) and the problem of getting stuck on lower-bound may be much bigger if he is to trigger a bear market. maybe it can also depend on the initial short term reaction. with some mayhem on SP they would nor go
  • #144,896
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:55pm Nov 8, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting sisse
.... Nothing new except take or put some wordings for hikes by default scenario [in play]

...Hikes by default or hawkish will mark the high of the Month on the current highs [TBConfrimed today/tomorrow]

For entries simple stop limit entries for momentum plays [check] are the no brainer this time both for short and mid term legs and they extend till NFP so clear and simple trades setups.

...and we are rolling, last hours before results.

Only update and like last time in BREXIT day close. Here deleveraging @1.101x Euro on the close and aggressively trailing stops to very unhealthy levels (TAwise). Not a super exciting target neither a TA valid one but the risk/gossips/tweet mode plays prevails for the next 5 hours or so.

Well done all that rode the simple ride so far but this time we depend on election noise[the lack of] to pan out ...

Flat across most of the board and actively looking for positions if we get a 'normal' result in Equities, Gold and adding in Euro. Less interested in Sterling and Yen (as we will have clashing sides) and OIL. AUD is also interesting for the next few weeks in case of clean sweep from Clinton.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,897
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:58pm Nov 8, 2016 3:58pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ---> Now the generation below (+/- in your age range) but not the Millennials are having to deal with the costs, feel left outside of the decision making but having to face a fast changing word without the easy ride of the older generations .... natural reaction vote 'against the establishment' whatever that means .... but sadly there also leaving a huge vacuum in between for the extreme right and left to fish in the middle ... sisse
I am very interested to see how the elections are when the Millennials are able to vote (technically I think they are already in 2015) and even more so when the Millennial generation starts filtering into the political realm via age.

There is a noticeable gap between the millennials and the baby boomers, mostly technology like computers/phones and liberalism particularly when it comes to sexual orientation and sexual preferences. Where I see an even larger gap though, is the generation below myself (generation z I believe?) where the liberalism I mention is prevalent in schools as well as wide spread social media. The future politician may very well be a transvestite with a purple mowhawk and tattoos...wouldnt that be a sight

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Z
  • #144,898
  • Nov 8, 2016 4:06pm Nov 8, 2016 4:06pm
Quoting sisse
No worries, I just say "WTF was that mate?" What you are describing is the general feeling and the social consequence and price the US and Europe are paying for the last financial crisis with the baby boomers retiring and the apathetic generation in between that has ignored political participation and taken democracy for granted for too long. Letting big money and corporations to be the puppet master of dinosaur politicians and the average Joe paying the cost of their mistakes. Now the generation below (+/- in your age range) but not the...
perfectly said
  • #144,899
  • Nov 8, 2016 4:31pm Nov 8, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I lost it- I absolutely died https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYY5-3_7LXQ
Hehe you can tell I'm not trading the election Unless the market is surprised like brexit. Lot people learnt their lesson and hedging , for me just sidelines until result known
  • #144,900
  • Nov 8, 2016 4:46pm Nov 8, 2016 4:46pm
current odds jumped
dem from 1/5 to upto 1/8
rep down from 4 to 6
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Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
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