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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #21,041
  • Nov 8, 2016 12:38pm Nov 8, 2016 12:38pm
Quoting juriFX
{quote} Hi Damian, thanks for your time here. It would be interesting for me to hear your thoughts on expectation failures in difficult markets. In particular, how do you handle bigger scale vs smaller scale expectations that sometimes are contradicting. Here some examples: {image} {image} I know about complex corrections. So what is the best approach in these situations? Better to go with bigger scale moves and threat everything else a complex correction (by missing opportunities on smaller scale) or just keep it simple and go with latest swings...
These are tough. and ones I find myself in all the time. Even tho theres some warnings but when is there not. Markets are always giving conflicting signals. The only way to realize your error is with the benefit of hindsight. I look foreword to the answer
  • #21,042
  • Nov 8, 2016 12:44pm Nov 8, 2016 12:44pm
Quoting x3m-PippiN
{quote} I get that, but my question was purely from a bar by bar perspective and that's why I cut out a big chunk of the chart. I'm very obsessed with "perfect" setups and entries (I'm very OCD) which is a mistake. And I'm working on fixing it. I don't feel confident in my analysing skills ... though my setups play out most of the times but I end up skipping them. I always find a stupid excuse like "momentum against me was too strong", "price didn't pullback deep enough in my PRZ" or "didn't get a nice rotation" etc. When I see a "perfect"...
I feel ya. I've been trading this style for a long time and i still have difficulty with quantifying a trades probability and when to ignore certain things

BTW, OCD can be a very beneficial thing in this game. Its definable better then carelessness.
  • #21,043
  • Nov 8, 2016 1:13pm Nov 8, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} I feel ya. I've been trading this style for a long time and i still have difficulty with quantifying a trades probability and when to ignore certain things BTW, OCD can be a very beneficial thing in this game. Its definable better then carelessness.
Yeah, OCD really helps with noticing minor details on the chart but is a pain in the a$$ when it comes to picking out trading opportunities.
  • #21,044
  • Nov 8, 2016 1:50pm Nov 8, 2016 1:50pm
Chalk up another vote for a video on stops, mainly your initial stop. I remember you started out using a 40pt stop and then went to a tighter stop 1-2pts beyond the swing that you're playing, but now it looks like you're back to using a larger stop. Basically interested in hearing your experience on experimenting with different stop placements.

Also am wondering why you choose not to scale out of positions.

Once again shoutout to everyone participating in the thread, really furthers the learning process.
  • #21,045
  • Nov 8, 2016 1:55pm Nov 8, 2016 1:55pm
Quoting x3m-PippiN
{quote} I get that, but my question was purely from a bar by bar perspective and that's why I cut out a big chunk of the chart. I'm very obsessed with "perfect" setups and entries (I'm very OCD) which is a mistake. And I'm working on fixing it. I don't feel confident in my analysing skills ... though my setups play out most of the times but I end up skipping them. I always find a stupid excuse like "momentum against me was too strong", "price didn't pullback deep enough in my PRZ" or "didn't get a nice rotation" etc. When I see a "perfect"...
At the end of the day you can't be too upset with yourself. You had a bad feeling about a possible trade there so you avoided it. That's excellent from a psychological point of view because you want to avoid taking trades if you have a bad feeling about them from the start.

Learning to be patient and stay out of trades until you feel more comfortable about a setup is huge. There will always be another setup.
  • #21,046
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:05pm Nov 8, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
A little more aggression here as we are approaching some areas of structure to the left but progressing well. {image}
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Very nice! And thank you for the question. Your aim should be to capture at least 70% of the move you are trading. The market does need room but if your target are not clear and then your trade management will suffer. You must trade manage with clear and non subjective rules as well. Use ratios or short term structure to trail into your profit target. Stick to it and get aggressive near your profit target but not until then let the trade run it's course. I got taken out as I typed I got very aggressive as price hit the 127 what was my target...
For me, these posts right here reinforce the idea of focusing on finding nice, straightforward setups to play each day. My mentality for a while was that to make good money you had to crush every swing, but the money will come when you're able to wait for clean setups and once you start adding contracts.

Some of my trades as of late have been fairly aggressive and deviate a bit from the teachings in this thread so I'm thinking I need to dial back some and slow down.
  • #21,047
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:10pm Nov 8, 2016 2:10pm
I got to screens late this morning so I didn't end up making any trades.

Will get ready for some fireworks tomorrow haha.
  • #21,048
  • Nov 8, 2016 4:18pm Nov 8, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting jmezz
{quote} {quote} For me, these posts right here reinforce the idea of focusing on finding nice, straightforward setups to play each day. My mentality for a while was that to make good money you had to crush every swing, but the money will come when you're able to wait for clean setups and once you start adding contracts. Some of my trades as of late have been fairly aggressive and deviate a bit from the teachings in this thread so I'm thinking I need to dial back some and slow down.
I feel the same way. I've been forcing trades rather than waiting for the setup. Im too eager to jump in and that's my main drawback. Patience and discipline!

So to answer your reply Mr. Pip my five top issues are:

1. Stop management.
2. Sort of goes hand in hand with stop management but when to make a graceful exit. I have a really tough time doing this because I put my stop where I believe the market proved me wrong.
3. Realigning myself with the market when Im wrong.
4. Psychology, I know what not to do and yet I end up doing it sometimes which tilts me. I think I know what to do about this, meditation/mindfulness before a session, mental check to see that Im not hungry, angry, sad or tired. Trading strictly according to the plan. Patience is key.
5. Not getting myself lost in short-term PA/order flow and yet knowing what to expect. This is mainly when Im trailing my stop.
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
  • #21,049
  • Nov 8, 2016 6:06pm Nov 8, 2016 6:06pm
Ok Traders I see you all stepped up and raised some very important topics and I will be diving in deep into everyone. Some I will address in writing others in a video or two. I will start doing this tomorrow tonight I'm on the elections. Thank you all for the opportunity to help you.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,050
  • Edited 5:50am Nov 9, 2016 5:21am | Edited 5:50am
gm everyone,

Big surprise during the night. I have updated my LT chart to get a sense of where we are...
(the body of each bar is 12.5 pts)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES_bigpicture.jpg Size: 226 KB


Limit down rules:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/price-limit-guide.html
  • #21,051
  • Nov 9, 2016 6:46am Nov 9, 2016 6:46am
When I look on the YM tick chart, I should look for a continuation up. If I look on the 15 min chart, I should more look for a decent short entry.

I am puzzled.
  • #21,052
  • Nov 9, 2016 7:11am Nov 9, 2016 7:11am
What a ride so far.

Will be patient at open. Grab a six-shooter and get ready for some wild wild west haha.
  • #21,053
  • Nov 9, 2016 8:14am Nov 9, 2016 8:14am
Quoting evocpr19
When I look on the YM tick chart, I should look for a continuation up. If I look on the 15 min chart, I should more look for a decent short entry. I am puzzled.
As you should be. Apples and oranges. Pick one and work with it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,054
  • Nov 9, 2016 8:15am Nov 9, 2016 8:15am
Quoting jmezz
What a ride so far. Will be patient at open. Grab a six-shooter and get ready for some wild wild west haha.
Sounds like a plan.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,055
  • Nov 9, 2016 8:53am Nov 9, 2016 8:53am
My long today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 12-16 (233 Tick) 11_9_2016.jpg Size: 132 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,056
  • Nov 9, 2016 8:57am Nov 9, 2016 8:57am
Took profit am not messing around with a potentially bipolar market +23 points so far.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 12-16 (233 Tick) 11_9_2016.jpg Size: 124 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,057
  • Nov 9, 2016 8:59am Nov 9, 2016 8:59am
Bears are gaining strength showing some price breakdown but it might be temporary. I need more info. Still bullish on this.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #21,058
  • Nov 9, 2016 9:01am Nov 9, 2016 9:01am
This is what i see for the Dow:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM_bigpicture.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #21,059
  • Nov 9, 2016 9:03am Nov 9, 2016 9:03am
+45 on YM. Nice day
  • #21,060
  • Nov 9, 2016 9:28am Nov 9, 2016 9:28am
YM +116
ES +13.75

This opened just like brexit where I bought the open there as well.

I was able to keep risk to reasonable size, if I was unable to keep risk realistic then I would not have taken these trades.

Notes on charts

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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