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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #20,981
  • Edited 1:19pm Nov 4, 2016 12:51pm | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting Mack2013
Good morning This is my road map this morning. Even though Price has been pretty bullish this morning. I'm looking to enter short. There's still a lot of struggle from the bears. I'm thinking they just need a reason to move. Full disclosure: took a 23 pip loss yesterday. managed it poorly. Thought for sure price was going to bounce off the supply zone . knew there was going to be pain so I never went to BE. Poor decision. oh well {image}
I do not think that price will reverse. However, I am not Jesus. Good luck, it is too late for me to enter in any direction on a friday.

I have to admit that momentum is decreasing, but we are close to 18000. This attracts price action and we have also nearly compensate the move down of yesterday.
Do not distract your decision on my 2 cents.
  • #20,982
  • Nov 4, 2016 12:56pm Nov 4, 2016 12:56pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I do not think that price will reverse. However, I am not Jesus. Good luck, it is too late for me to enter in any direction on a friday. I have to admit that momentum is decreasing, but we are close to 18000. This attracts price action ans we have also nearly compensate the move down of yesterday. Do not distract your decision on my 2 cents.
I might be wasting my time but with the action this last week. short is a better bet then going long but we will see.....
  • #20,983
  • Nov 4, 2016 1:13pm Nov 4, 2016 1:13pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} I might be wasting my time but with the action this last week. short is a better bet then going long but we will see.....
I have seen incredible moves on a friday evening, especially the last 2 hours. There is still a news outstanding (FOMC).
Whatever you take, I wish you many pips. I watch only, it is also educative.

Damian could give you better advice, but he is not publishing his outlook.
  • #20,984
  • Nov 4, 2016 1:52pm Nov 4, 2016 1:52pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} I have seen incredible moves on a friday evening, especially the last 2 hours. There is still a news outstanding (FOMC). Whatever you take, I wish you many pips. I watch only, it is also educative. Damian could give you better advice, but he is not publishing his outlook.
Thanks my friend. currently up 25 and at BE looking for a deeper retrace... possibly the 61.8.

We are in a l/T bearish market and price went from a NSL to L/T LH - Deep so expecting at least a deep continuation (Expecting a retest "most likely" or NSL)

Hope the second chart is readable. pretty messy

Blah..... forgot to move my PT on my broker ... taken out at the 50% retracement for +35pips

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  • #20,985
  • Edited 2:13pm Nov 4, 2016 1:59pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Thanks my friend. currently up 25 and at BE looking for a deeper retrace... possibly the 61.8. We are in a l/T bearish market and price went from a NSL to L/T LH - Deep so expecting at least a deep continuation (Expecting a retest "most likely" or NSL) Hope the second chart is readable. pretty messy Blah..... forgot to move my PT on my broker ... taken out at the 50% retracement for +45pips {image} {image}
Congrats; nice move down
  • #20,986
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:11pm Nov 4, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} Thanks my friend. currently up 25 and at BE looking for a deeper retrace... possibly the 61.8. We are in a l/T bearish market and price went from a NSL to L/T LH - Deep so expecting at least a deep continuation (Expecting a retest "most likely" or NSL) Hope the second chart is readable. pretty messy Blah..... forgot to move my PT on my broker ... taken out at the 50% retracement for +35pips
Excellent intuition to short there. Congrats on your winning ticks.
  • #20,987
  • Nov 4, 2016 10:11pm Nov 4, 2016 10:11pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Congrats; nice move down
Quoting crixus
{quote} Excellent intuition to short there. Congrats on your winning ticks.
Thanks Guys. Even tho my entry was pretty good , I felt like I managed it poorly... again. Took profits too fast. But I guess theirs always something to improve on. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

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  • #20,988
  • Nov 5, 2016 9:22am Nov 5, 2016 9:22am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} {quote} Thanks Guys. Even tho my entry was pretty good , I felt like I managed it poorly... again. Took profits too fast. But I guess theirs always something to improve on. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. {image} {image}
@Mack2013

I still consider you did a good job as you exited where the bulls broke out to the upside at the beginning of your blue zone. Sometimes prices reverse just there. The problematic is that when you use a fixed number of units/contracts and close all without leaving a runner you will always feel as if you mismanaged your trade in hindsight.
  • #20,989
  • Nov 5, 2016 12:54pm Nov 5, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting crixus
{quote} @Mack2013 I still consider you did a good job as you exited where the bulls broke out to the upside at the beginning of your blue zone. Sometimes prices reverse just there. The problematic is that when you use a fixed number of units/contracts and close all without leaving a runner you will always feel as if you mismanaged your trade in hindsight.
Thanks dude
  • #20,990
  • Nov 6, 2016 11:14am Nov 6, 2016 11:14am
Quoting x3m-PippiN
YM +25 We made a weak NSL so I waited for a deep PB and took the trade when I saw the bearish bar. I was going to enter earlier but decided to wait for the 1:1 on the PB. Exit was manually because of the strong bullish bar and there is demand on bigger TF below. Jmezz, nice entry on YM ... I was looking for a re-entry also but my tick chart doesn't show the same candle for an entry as yours. I'm done with YM for the day. {image}
Wanted to elaborate more on this, this was a beautiful trade.

Harmonic correction into the 618 hitting structure and severely weakened order flow. These types of trades really make you wish that all trades could be like that haha.
  • #20,991
  • Nov 6, 2016 11:16am Nov 6, 2016 11:16am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} {quote} Thanks Guys. Even tho my entry was pretty good , I felt like I managed it poorly... again. Took profits too fast. But I guess theirs always something to improve on. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. {image} {image}
This was a sick trade man.

Looks like you are gearing up to go on another one of your trading runs haha.
  • #20,992
  • Nov 6, 2016 11:17am Nov 6, 2016 11:17am
I shafted myself on a good amount of profit last week trying to hold and crush the big reversal trade that never came.

Shame on me.

We'll see what PA we get this week but I will try and manage it better and not go for the grand slam.
  • #20,993
  • Nov 6, 2016 11:56am Nov 6, 2016 11:56am
Quoting jmezz
I shafted myself on a good amount of profit last week trying to hold and crush the big reversal trade that never came. Shame on me. We'll see what PA we get this week but I will try and manage it better and not go for the grand slam.
Thanks man. I'm doing much better then I did in July.... blahhhhh!

Your still doing quit good dude. Even on your bad days your either BE or slightly profitable. Lately I've been just been taking targeted profits and its tough since you always seem to leave pips on the table.

I actually was thinking about this playing poker a few weeks back (instead of focusing on the game play). Which has a lot of similarities. money management, looking for patterns in peoples plays and bet sizes, psychology.... anyway I digress. What I was think was; is it better to take a lot of small pots or go for the jackpot. Which would be better of for your longevity. each has its variables and each has a different risk category.

I ended up winning by holding steady and playing consistently (on the safe side) then I took down 2 huge jackpots in a row late in the game, when I knew I had the nuts (or heavy favored), which made me the chip leader by a wide margin and then I just bullied the rest of the player into bankruptcy... Is this how the game is played???
  • #20,994
  • Nov 7, 2016 2:30am Nov 7, 2016 2:30am
Quoting jmezz
{quote} This is honestly a great post man, and what you wrote really resonated with me simply for the fact that I've experienced much of the same shit that you have...
I know this is a really old post but I was re-reading the thread for I don't know which time.. and every time I read this post it's like I'm reading my biography. It's true that everyone you talk to about your trading endeavours looks at you like you are out of your mind.
I'm 22 and I've been trying to get a hold of the markets since I was 18 and the only people that support me are my best friend (who is an amazing poker player) and my mother. Everyone else from my family is like "oh god, when will you quit and get a real job"
I've dropped out of university (it's cheap here in Bulgaria so no big deal) , I've saved up some money from working 2.5 years and I also have a small passive income...so basically the only thing I'm spending time on for the last couple of months is trading. Can't say I'm making a living out of it..but I'm battling with my stubborn psychology and I see light in the end of the tunnel.

I don't know why I wrote this post ...maybe it's just strange to see other people with very very similar life as mine.
  • #20,995
  • Nov 7, 2016 7:54am Nov 7, 2016 7:54am
Quoting x3m-PippiN
{quote} I know this is a really old post but I was re-reading the thread for I don't know which time.. and every time I read this post it's like I'm reading my biography. It's true that everyone you talk to about your trading endeavours looks at you like you are out of your mind. I'm 22 and I've been trying to get a hold of the markets since I was 18 and the only people that support me are my best friend (who is an amazing poker player) and my mother. Everyone else from my family is like "oh god, when will you quit and get a real job" I've dropped...
I think it definitely helps to read about others going through the same struggle that you are, that you're not alone in this madness lol. And it helps to get your story out there, to voice it somewhere or somehow, whether you post it publicly or to a private journal. Personally I really enjoy hearing people's stories as there's something to be learned from everyone's journey whether it lead to ruin or success.

As difficult as it might be, you really have to tune out all the negative bullshit from others. You always read about statistics of traders who don't make it, and you might feel / hear doubt about your own abilities from others but when I read about the low likelihood of being successful in trading I just think that it doesn't apply to me. I try to focus solely on my own journey in that regard.

I only wish I got started in the market when I was 18 but my conception of the market was always that you had to work on Wall St to be involved with stocks. I had no idea you could just setup shop in your living room and trade from a computer. I thought stock trading was always reserved for the smartest of the smart. Reality is pretty far from my misconception lol.

Anyway, becoming successful in trading is a long journey. Sometimes I still have doubts but it's important to keep in mind that there is no replacement for persistence. You can only fail at something if you choose to give up, and that goes for anything not just trading.
  • #20,996
  • Nov 7, 2016 7:57am Nov 7, 2016 7:57am
Well I missed that large move back up I was trying for last week due to this gap up.

What can you do.
  • #20,997
  • Nov 7, 2016 8:10am Nov 7, 2016 8:10am
Well Traders,

That is quite a gap this morning in the YM Futures. These next couple of days may be crazy may be quiet. I expected price to stay within the range and although it pulled a lot lower then I expected it has indeed fallen back into the range. I believe the market to be relatively slow with a here and there period of volatility but at the end of the day we still must dance. We will see what happens. I expect price to stay bullish above 18000 and bearish below17950. The bulls are going to try like hell to get past 18110 and the bears will try to stop them at 18083. I will post my trades today and I will also do a better job at the preview I think I will be recording it as a video. It is easier that way.

For those of you that trade options IV is really high across the board so look to sell premium and use caution.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #20,998
  • Nov 7, 2016 8:12am Nov 7, 2016 8:12am
Simple pop quiz:
Would you enter short from a bar by bar perspective ?

My answer is, nope.
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  • #20,999
  • Nov 7, 2016 8:24am Nov 7, 2016 8:24am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Well Traders, That is quite a gap this morning in the YM Futures. These next couple of days may be crazy may be quiet. I expected price to stay within the range and although it pulled a lot lower then I expected it has indeed fallen back into the range. I believe the market to be relatively slow with a here and there period of volatility but at the end of the day we still must dance. We will see what happens. I expect price to stay bullish above 18000 and bearish below17950. The bulls are going to try like hell to get past 18110 and the bears will...
Today is going to be a cautious, SOH type day unless a must-trade scenario pops up.

Quoting x3m-PippiN
Simple pop quiz: Would you enter short from a bar by bar perspective ? My answer is, nope. {image}
Why wouldn't you?

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Price was slapped by your level 8x and also 2 big rejections from yellow level too.

It came up to what looks like ~618, based for a bit, then moved back down.

From bar by bar there was not a big rotation in a favorable spot but sometimes you have to take everything in. Base with 2 big rejections and 8 total at a level of structure / 618 tells you a short might be worth it.
  • #21,000
  • Nov 7, 2016 9:49am Nov 7, 2016 9:49am
Quoting x3m-PippiN
Simple pop quiz: Would you enter short from a bar by bar perspective ? My answer is, nope. {image}
Why not? I would like to get your take on it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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