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  • #144,801
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:47pm Nov 4, 2016 3:47pm
...and we are rolling with Euro in clean sweep back to break out. Superb ride for those who trade the risk leg, here not even 1 tiny tick on that leg ...well done all longs from last Friday.

For the second week in a row, Euro still in choose your poison time for mid term but risk has added a major variable in the equation in case the US decide to regress in progress and have its first taster in their history of what a nationalistic xenophobe nutter can do to a country ....

The most important factor from all this is for the late mid and long term. Euro opining a tiny window in the horizon for a long term bottom. Whatever is the outcome of US election, Euro is on the last major mid term leg down via Brexit and Dollar but if the EZ hold next couple of quarters it will become the second and strong and realistic global reserve currencies while capturing the vacuum left by Sterling that is in its way out.

1.116x naked for a test with most shorts already took profit and the remaining stops already cleared. Only real money and major hands, sitting at the 1.12xx handle so you can imagine what could happen if the US enters in complete uncertainty during/after elections....

For now ... actively looking for positions in Euro, Gold and Yen for next week...

Quoting goosebone
{quote} If not, then we set our clocks back 1 hour on Saturday night and 50 years on Wednesday morning.
indeed ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,802
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:48pm Nov 4, 2016 3:48pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} If not, then we set our clocks back 1 hour on Saturday night and 50 years on Wednesday morning.
actually, I cant wait to see the result!!! Even though it can be devastating in long run - and even more for Europe if this political course continues to evolve further - Europe has a pretty long tradition of tragedies. I wish I could read some socio-historical analysis of what is going on right now in about 100 years as its almost impossible to have a comprihensive analysis of socio-political-economic factors in real time (the ones nowadays just prove that mostly no-one knows whats going on). Whats seems clear to me that Brexit/EU state/Trump are just symptoms of some much much deeper problems in the West which are hard to understand and are beyond our trading interest - Im almost sure that another symptom is the problem with extremelly low natural interest rates. But definitely something to think about as causes of the times awating if nothing changes. Im not a doomsayer but in Europe things can escalate quickly = i.e. in months.

P.S.: completely agree with Sisse previous post - shall the EU get out of this Brexit problem and crises of political leadership under some new mode of effective and rational political leadership (Q1/Q2/Q3 of 2017) it can shine (+ the relevant trading implications)- the elections next year will answer this.
  • #144,803
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:00pm Nov 4, 2016 4:00pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} actually, I cant wait to see the result!!! Even though it can be devastating in long run - and even more for Europe if this political course continues to evolve further - Europe has a pretty long tradition of tragedies. I wish I could read some socio-historical analysis of what is going on right now in about 100 years as its almost impossible to have a comprihensive analysis of socio-political-economic factors in real time (the ones nowadays just prove that mostly no-one knows whats going on). Whats seems clear to me that Brexit/EU...
Yes that history book would be a very interesting read. Or...not. I mean to say it wouldn't surprise me too much if after all of the careful analysis and theorizing about haves and have-nots, silent majorities, cycles of socioeconomic angst, etc. if the real story is something more akin to the cultural, social and political equivalent of texting while driving.
  • #144,804
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:10pm Nov 4, 2016 4:10pm
lol, the chances of you dying in a fiery nuclear blast are slim to none - no matter what candidate takes the puppet-hand up the ass.
  • #144,805
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:14pm Nov 4, 2016 4:14pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Yes that history book would be a very interesting read. Or...not. I mean to say it wouldn't surprise me too much if after all of the careful analysis and theorizing about haves and have-nots, silent majorities, cycles of socioeconomic angst, etc. if the real story is something more akin to the cultural, social and political equivalent of texting while driving.
nicely said than the question is how we got to the state of "texting while driving" on all fronts

P.S.: Pharm0r

http://thebulletin.org/timeline

just to make u feel more insecure
  • #144,806
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:17pm Nov 4, 2016 4:17pm
Just got this: (guess my broker has his own doomsday clock)
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  • #144,807
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:18pm Nov 4, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting Pharm0r
lol, the chances of you dying in a fiery nuclear blast are slim to none - no matter what candidate takes the puppet-hand up the ass.
Bill hicks fan by any chance?
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  • #144,808
  • Edited 4:34pm Nov 4, 2016 4:21pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting chester123
..Whats seems clear to me that Brexit/EU state/Trump are just symptoms of some much much deeper problems in the West which are hard to understand and are beyond our trading interest -...
--> Indeed and it has been cooking for years but politicians especially trditional conservatives (Republicans with the 'Tea party' or Torys with Ukip, etc) ignore them and put them under the table leaving a huge room for the extreme right and the populist to make a feast of the unaware, ignored and now even angry masses.

--> The main difference in practice and history is that Liberal thinkers embrace change while Conservative thinkers panic and hide into the past, while in times of status quo, Liberals tend to go over board ignoring the ones behind while Conservative put the hand breaks to keep a decent equilibrium.

As long as the pendulum balance each other sometimes a bit to one or the other is ok, the problem is when one side pulls too far apart as the Hitler's, Mussolini's or Kim Jong-un's, Chavez's , of the world appear fishing on the extremes...

The saddest part in all this for the UK and hopefully not for the US, the ones who will pay the highest price when things go tits up (and they will as there is no case in history nationalism, xenophobia and protectionism has lead to better, healthier, fairer or richer societies) are always the exactly same that support them.

Big corporations, banks and $$$ will run to the exit miles before the average Joe brexiter/Trump zombies notice a Tsunami is about to hit them...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,809
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:45pm Nov 4, 2016 4:45pm
Quoting sisse
......Big corporations, banks and $$$ will run to the exit miles before the average Joe brexiter/Trump zombies notice a Tsunami is about to hit them... sisse
the majority of my US elections volatility trades have already been banked, as we have gotten a very healthy ^VIX spike already. I have more long vol trades to run into the next 2 weeks, but it's house money at this point. Will be contemplating reversion setups, BTFD opps come Monday. Have a nice weekend, all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,810
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:57pm Nov 4, 2016 4:57pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} --> Indeed and it has been cooking for years but politicians especially trditional conservatives (Republicans with the 'Tea party' or Torys with Ukip, etc) ignore them and put them under the table leaving a huge room for the extreme right and the populist to make a feast of the unaware, ignored and now even angry masses. --> The main difference in practice and history is that Liberal thinkers embrace change while Conservative thinkers panic and hide into the past, while in times of status quo, Liberals tend to go over board ignoring the...
I basically agree. Just a few thoughts on this (from european perspective):

under normal conditions the left-right (liberal/conservative) pendulum should work - and it worked after the 2WW lets say til the fall of Soviet union (of course, in the West only). Question is if the traditional left-right division still works: because the traditional political processes in democracies after the 2WW were in some sense hijacked by:

1. expansion of human/basic rights and extensive interpretation of them from the side of constitutional courts = limits the scope of potentional political decisions.
2. comlete elasticity of supply of capital in globalized world = in some areas it indermines the capacity of states to regulate the economy (basically as u say: dollars and banks are the ones to run away before average joe is scrued - well, who would not run - but even that fact is part of the globalization as a fact limiting the national politics =) it works unless the politics does not care - e.g. Theresa May)
4. globalization of dangers, which cannot be dealt with on the national lvls = makes the national political side impotent in these issues
3. =) indirect answer to point three is european union which is also a problem by itself =) as it highly technocratically (there is some kind of democratic deficit of EU institutions and problem of legal and factual sovereignity = i.e. even the states are equal but germany is exercising extreme influence, e.g. area of fiscal rules etc.) sets the rules of common market and not only to that - again limits the national political processes (for good or bad).
.... there may be more of course.

So these are the factual and procedural limits and some part of the electorate frustration may come from the fact that the political processes cannot produce effective decisions any more (good or bad?)

Plus there are ideological limits to the politics too:

on the left side: social democrats of europe (left generally) til today have not really presented a political idea, which could stand against neo-liberalism as the only legitimate concept in world after the fall of Soviet union.
on the very right side (do not count the moderate-right neoliberals (even there I have doubts about legitimacy of Chicago school style neoliberalism after 2008): there is only a regress to history full of nationalism, politics of identity etc.

So I dont know where the frustration of electorate comes from but I would say this kind of explains what a huge mess is going on the political side. Cannot speak for the US so much.

P.S.: just some random ideas on Friday evening (instead of socializing ) - open to criticism
  • #144,811
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:58pm Nov 4, 2016 4:58pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} nicely said than the question is how we got to the state of "texting while driving" on all fronts P.S.: Pharm0r http://thebulletin.org/timeline just to make u feel more insecure
Heh, I'm aware

I wouldn't call me the insecure one....I haven't be flouting the dooms day / global financial reckoning / etc etc
  • #144,812
  • Nov 4, 2016 5:01pm Nov 4, 2016 5:01pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Bill hicks fan by any chance? {image}
And so many more....especially the following (in no particular order)

Dave Ruben
Ben Shapiro
Milo Yiannopoulos
Stephen Fry
plus of course the ancient philosophers....Plato among them
  • #144,813
  • Nov 4, 2016 5:10pm Nov 4, 2016 5:10pm
You know who I would like to see in the running for President?

Neil deGrasse Tyson

love that guy
  • #144,814
  • Edited 5:45pm Nov 4, 2016 5:21pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting Pharm0r
You know who I would like to see in the running for President? Neil deGrasse Tyson love that guy
He'd get my vote in a minute

Also think Milo Y. should be pretty flattered to be on any list that includes Plato
  • #144,815
  • Nov 4, 2016 6:05pm Nov 4, 2016 6:05pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} He'd get my vote in a minute Also think Milo Y. should be pretty flattered to be on any list that includes Plato
I said no particular order!

Anyways, think I'm gonna lay low for awhile- have a nice weekend
  • #144,816
  • Edited 8:10pm Nov 4, 2016 7:59pm | Edited 8:10pm
The more I read from sisse and chester123, the more ignorant I am. I can't even hold a conversation with you two. College educated and feel like a kindergartener. But

On that note, I am not a supporter of either candidate. I'm a conservative and liberal so I vote for the person most qualified and put biases aside for the common good.

I don't want a tyrant who takes his basketball away when no one wants him on his team or his team loses and I don't want a liar who has no Integreity

However, I need a president who has political coothe regardless of ethics and understands foreign affairs along w a cabinet that can do the real work.

On EU I am disappointed again that "something else"
has come into play. So close to the door again and here we are hanging around the .1100 handle w possibility of .12xx. NFP didn't even allow the current Lows to be tested.

Rates 90% on the way and yet another little storm in US to short circuit it. I'm still looking for .080x /.073x but not sure anymore. Always something to take it out.

Guess ill see what this week holds.
  • #144,817
  • Edited 9:04am Nov 5, 2016 8:29am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I basically agree. Just a few thoughts on this (from european perspective): under normal conditions the left-right (liberal/conservative) pendulum should work - and it worked after the 2WW lets say til the fall of Soviet union (of course, in the West only). Question is if the traditional left-right division still works: because the traditional political processes in democracies after the 2WW were in some sense hijacked by: 1. expansion of human/basic rights and extensive interpretation of them from the side of constitutional courts = limits...

In the US when trying to understand where this (very recent batch of) frustration comes from I think it's important to go to not just the usual talking points you hear all the time jobs, income inequality, and all that but also at the idea that you had, in the late 90's and 2000's, a group of voters on the right who wanted a change in direction for conservatives. The Tea party wanted a swing towards more libertarian, constitutionalist priorities, less war, less debt, fiscal responsibility, etc. They didn't start out as Republicans but when the GOP feigned an embrace of their ideals, they all ran as republicans (and won). People who supported them felt they were changing Washington. The revolution had finally come. Then Washington didn't change and the Republican party for the tea party's efforts rewarded them with more war, exploding debt, no fiscal responsibility and basically tread all over their "don't tread on me" flags. After the Great Sarah Palin experiment ended abrubtly they were offered Mitt Romney to lead them (kind of like asking Donny Osmond to sing for Slayer). This time around the GOP thought running YET ANOTHER BUSH (!?!) would be just the ticket. So no surprise that given that lay of the land, a guy like Trump can swoop in, call everybody an asshole, and grab that support with both hands and ride it up further than anyone would have believed possible.
Support for Bernie Sanders on the left doesn't look special to me. It often gets grouped in with Trump support but it's hard for me to see it as more than just the usual "starts out as a revolution, finishes as a footnote" fist pumping that marks the beginning of most presidential primaries. But the greatest common denominator between Trump Sanders supporters perhaps is a sense of being ignored. Of impotence. Of being powerless while you are getting ripped off. Or even homeless ("this is not my party, do i even have a party?") Not sure if that's anything new either though.

Either way i would suggest that's how we got to a "texting while driving" state over here. Certainly on the right and to a lesser degree on the left as well, we have political parties totally and absolutely blind and deaf to huge portions their members beliefs and agendas and, brcause of that, now unable to control what happens after they took their eyes off the road for too long.
  • #144,818
  • Nov 5, 2016 1:40pm Nov 5, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting IMARICH1
The more I read from sisse and chester123, the more ignorant I am. I can't even hold a conversation with you two. College educated and feel like a kindergartener. But On that note, I am not a supporter of either candidate. I'm a conservative and liberal so I vote for the person most qualified and put biases aside for the common good. I don't want a tyrant who takes his basketball away when no one wants him on his team or his team loses and I don't want a liar who has no Integreity However, I need a president who has political coothe regardless of...

It's always the same story as we get close to .080 there is always something that brings the price up and everybody is like omg omg the biggest flop so far like on 16.6.2016 with Mario saying the should be no more rate hikes 5 minutes after lowering them, or numerous speculations about number of rate hikes, then was the brexit and everybody was screaming about parity and yet here we are once again.
  • #144,819
  • Nov 5, 2016 2:11pm Nov 5, 2016 2:11pm
Its Time for the Elites to Rise Up Against the Ignorant Masses
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/...p-2016-brexit/

"Did I say ignorant? Yes, I did. It is necessary to say that people are deluded and that the task of leadership is to un-delude them. Is that elitist? Maybe it is; maybe we have become so inclined to celebrate the authenticity of all personal conviction that it is now elitist to believe in reason, expertise, and the lessons of history. If so, the party of accepting reality must be prepared to take on the party of denying reality, and its enablers among those who know better. If that is the coming realignment, we should embrace it."

Good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,820
  • Nov 5, 2016 3:31pm Nov 5, 2016 3:31pm
Quoting The Fool
the majority of my US elections volatility trades have already been banked, as we have gotten a very healthy ^VIX spike already.
certainly we could be in for more. Worst case is a state of confusion or turmoil following the election. If that happens, we might see ^VIX spike to $50. like it did back in Aug '15 on the yuan devaluation surprise. If it's a Trump victory, maybe we see a quick spike to $30 or a little higher. Iv's in the Nov09 VIX calls already jacked up so better to look at the Nov16 calls (or later) even if you're not thinking of holding til expiry. Nov 16 long $40 call is only $15/contract. I show a 20-lot trade that would break even around $31.25 on Nov 14 and could make $20k and change on a spike to $50....max loss on the trade is $300 + comms, or $325.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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