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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,781
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:30pm Nov 3, 2016 6:30pm
Quoting goosebone
You could envision 'crisis' (from a market point of view) occurring in a plethora of ways.
YEAH, I'm sure anyone so inclined will be doing that. My gut is that HRC will win a clear EC majority. With a normal defeated candidate, we'd get a quick concession and a smooth transition. With media whore DJT, I have no doubt there will be drama in any scenario wherein he does not win. Then things could really start getting ugly, with no clear/quick solution and a lot of trigger happy morons driven mad with "rigged election" and "Lock her up!" rhetoric looking for any excuse to spill their neighbor's blood. No tie-break vote in the SC, with Scalia unreplaced. Whole lotta uncertainty possible, with no quick resolution, and as I suggested above that is not really priced into equities. Market reaction could be a deep, fast correction, 20% or more, if there is no path to a clear transition of power and blood in the streets.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,782
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:39pm Nov 3, 2016 6:39pm
Quoting The Fool
Market reaction could be a deep, fast correction, 20% or more, if there is no path to a clear transition of power and blood in the streets.
IF DJT wins, markets will tank, but maybe not so bad. Best would be a HRC landslide victory to close off potential GOP claims of a "rigged election." In which case, BTFD like it's on sale. I have a few SPX call vert spreads set up for Nov18 week and beyond, but some prolly gonna be too far out at 2165 and higher...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,783
  • Nov 3, 2016 7:07pm Nov 3, 2016 7:07pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subpri...mpact_timeline

In a crisis, risk money flows to cash and to safer assets, like US Treasurys. The chart is TLT in the last months of 2008. I had to look at the handy subprime crisis impact timeline to see what happened in Nov 2008, when TLT started breaking out at a $5-$10 per week clip.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-03_1652tlt.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-03_1705nov2008.png Size: 224 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,784
  • Nov 3, 2016 7:09pm Nov 3, 2016 7:09pm
"Nov 17, Treasury gives out $33.8 billion to 21 banks...."....TLT crashed up $10+ that week, indicating somebody had money to spend on long bonds...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,785
  • Nov 3, 2016 7:34pm Nov 3, 2016 7:34pm
last $10 run for TLT was back around the Brexit scare. I could see a run from $130 +/- to $140 or better, maybe even $150....in a real spook. TLT otm calls are still cheap, maybe get a little cheaper in a bit of calm b4 the storm over the next few td's....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-03_1728tltb.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-03_1732tlt11.png Size: 61 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,786
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:20am Nov 4, 2016 2:20am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} AJ... Moved SL to +BE above H4 consolidation. I made small MM mistake ( only one EP), so either SL Will be hit or TP1. Next time can be better.. {image}
AJ..
Stopped out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYiH4 Short closed 4.11..png Size: 51 KB
PVSRA
  • #144,787
  • Nov 4, 2016 6:21am Nov 4, 2016 6:21am
...that was it for the European session. UK descending one step further into the abyss. Things are happening nasty & fast and today Newspapers (for those outside of the UK please don't read them as it's embarrassing) unlocking a line that hasn't been crossed since the Great War.

...Fascism knocking in little England doors in a poor spectacle. We are aligning to see 'blood' very soon if things don't dramatically change...

Whatever the case, US election and/or risk giving a push and we may have witnessing a multi year long and mid term high in UK Equities. As was expected from the quarter, pressure shifting from Sterling to UK Equities and in contrast with yesterday:

--> Changing short term outlook in UK Equities from Neutral to Soft Sell ... the soft for now is because if macro numbers start shifting down (as is expected in this Quarter) BOE still has a Bazooka under the table....

On the rest of the board, all eyes in the US and only the US for the next few days. NFP for the rates flow but election jitters is in full control via risk short term. A good time today after NFP to open the US election flow maps and beyond.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,788
  • Nov 4, 2016 7:21am Nov 4, 2016 7:21am
NFP November history
Attached Image
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #144,789
  • Nov 4, 2016 7:26am Nov 4, 2016 7:26am
hmm,

I dont have any of my thinked scenarios discussed yesterday for GBPUSD or EURUSD in play. Wait numbers and think again . To much forces going against each other.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,790
  • Nov 4, 2016 7:39am Nov 4, 2016 7:39am
This was pretty solid report - inline/slightly upside in my view =) due to wages and revisions

So maybe finally now with NY we trigger the flow sub-short term I suggested in my previous post =) to 1.1.03X (to wait there for elections maybe??)
  • #144,791
  • Nov 4, 2016 7:41am Nov 4, 2016 7:41am
Slightly miss on the headline, inline with the revision....

Rates Dec are confirmed from tbe macro and economic front.

NY to come, raising the bid in Equities is in play for the election risk play. ...

siss
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,792
  • Nov 4, 2016 7:47am Nov 4, 2016 7:47am
Quoting chester123
This was pretty solid report - inline/slightly upside in my view =) due to wages and revisions So maybe finally now with NY we trigger the flow sub-short term I suggested in my previous post =) to 1.1.03X (to wait there for elections maybe??)
When market is heavily biased short term , no data could shift the sentiment ... the tweet from last friday caught many with their pants down so it's exercising maximum pain for those holding til it clears the risk event .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,793
  • Nov 4, 2016 8:00am Nov 4, 2016 8:00am
Quoting chester123
This was pretty solid report - inline/slightly upside in my view =) due to wages and revisions So maybe finally now with NY we trigger the flow sub-short term I suggested in my previous post =) to 1.1.03X (to wait there for elections maybe??)
We are in risk mode trading short term. Elections became less clear since last week FBI 'tweet'' unlocking uncertainty first.

As you well know majors like Dollar and Euro don't start macro legs on gossip major uncertainty. As soon as things gets clear in the US front, normal macro flows will play out.

Trading wise, Euro couldn't lock the 1.12xx handle last week so we can go as high as the top of the range without invalidating the flow.

My 2 cents, US Equities are in full control until next week. Check ES drifting to the lows of the 207x handle below is risk and soft panic.... anything else ts just noise till elections .... without that, Dollar will have troubles on any rally.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,794
  • Edited 8:26am Nov 4, 2016 8:14am | Edited 8:26am
Ok, I need broader perspective. But in that case..... should not we have short term neutral E/U now?

Ok Its again a question of time perspective..... so the answer is no...... as its just a very small time window (from friday til elections outcome) so it cannot develop into a broader FA factor, which would cause short term chop.

P.S.: sorry, this time I asked before I thought
  • #144,795
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:47pm Nov 4, 2016 2:47pm
That was it for the day. Euro and Gold ruling the risk ride in the FX and commodities board. US elections weighting very heavy since last week and markets not really confortable on what is cooking in the political front.

Here flatten all across the board except soft position in US Equities. Not interested in holding much risk on the table over the weekend as we are in tweet mode trading. Expecting noise and gossips from the US political front hijacking markets the next few days (and hopefully not for long).

--> Equities are holding a very heavy weight, rates, end of ECB QE in sight, Brexit collapse rolling and potentially destroying the largest and richest single free market in the world (EU) and now the nutter with a chance to win and destroy the second largest Free Trade Area in the world (NAFTA) also under threat. All covered on top of what was the worst possible scenario at the beginning of year: Populism, Nationalism and Protectionism.

This year is aligning as the worst year since WWII for free trade, free markets and free liberal democracies.... Let see if Americans take the lead and send a strong signal refusing to run the lowest denominator or if they decide to put the world economy [and security] up side down for next year(s)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,796
  • Nov 4, 2016 2:56pm Nov 4, 2016 2:56pm
Beautiful thread I came across, an ask me anything by a UK institutional trader

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/...atility-trader

Good reading for the weekend, sisse may even know the guy
  • #144,797
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:09pm Nov 4, 2016 3:09pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Three to Swing: Waves, Support & Resistance Levels, S&R Zones, and Trendlines (Continuation) {image} 4. Support and Resistance Zones ... {image} In general if you have a setup to get in a trade, and price is trading inside this zone, you may have a very good entry given the reduced risk of placing your stop. On the other hand, if you are already in a trade and you are using multiple timeframes and price enters in this zone you may consider closing your position or at least banking some profits. Nonetheless, and probably...
Completely OFT question - to anyone and sisse as author - has this TBC been continued? Or am I just incompetent to find it? just going through some lessons and Im not sure where this one ends
  • #144,798
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:10pm Nov 4, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Completely OFT question - to anyone and sisse as author - has this TBC been continued? Or am I just incompetent to find it? just going through some lessons and Im not sure where this one ends
I have more ...but it was enough info for the topic we were discussing...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,799
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:29pm Nov 4, 2016 3:29pm
Quoting The Fool
last $10 run for TLT was back around the Brexit scare. I could see a run from $130 +/- to $140 or better, maybe even $150....in a real spook. TLT otm calls are still cheap, maybe get a little cheaper in a bit of calm b4 the storm over the next few td's.... {image} {image}
Nice insight, I'm relatively new to options so thanks for sharing.
  • #144,800
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:30pm Nov 4, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting sisse
... Let see if Americans take the lead and send a strong signal refusing to run the lowest denominator or if they decide to put the world economy [and security] up side down for next year(s)... sisse
If not, then we set our clocks back 1 hour on Saturday night and 50 years on Wednesday morning.
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