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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,541
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:28am Nov 3, 2016 6:28am
Quoting Zaak
{quote} I'm unsure what you mean, do you mean the previous days H print is one spike/excess and the gap being the high of yesterday and the London open? it would be really helpful to understand this.

The spike made by yesterday GB G and H periods is a form of excess (1). The gap above the top of the H period (meaning the top of yesterday GB range) is an other form of excess (2): so you got 2 excess in the same direction: upside. And consequently you have one of the most strong signal you can have to go upwards. (at least initially) Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,542
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:29am Nov 3, 2016 6:29am
Quoting Lock
{quote} The spike made by yesterday GB G and H periods is a form of excess (1). The gap above the top of the H period (meaning the top of yesterday GB range) is an other form of excess (2): so you got 2 excess in the same direction: upside. And consequently you have one of the most strong signal you can have to go upwards. (at least initially) Best L.

got it, thank you.
  • #1,543
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:31am Nov 3, 2016 6:31am
Quoting Lock
12:00+1GMT LATE MORNING REPORT {quote} ... Now take with the needed caution current move for 2 reasons: 1st because it left downside a huge minus development 23678-2420. 2nd Because it is building an anomalous gap higher for upcoming preUS session: now already of 100 pips. I'm not saying the move is already over, I'm saying that is pretty dangerous downside if it will not correct some of the inventories and some of the minus development. Best L....
Quoting Lock
{quote} Let me explain: the fact that this move had a strong support by the 2 "composite" excess was the factor that ignited this move upside, but then all the other weak hands piled on it and made the current extreme elongation of current GB session. So, the fact that it was a strong supported move do not contrast with the fact that its elongation is currently weak because the partecipants who act in this movve are different in the first portion of it and in the last part of it.

In fact as you see current G is retracing a big portion of the minus development left downside by the weak hands piling on the initial move.
Now I'm really off. Please preserve your questions fot this evening. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,544
  • Nov 3, 2016 8:10am Nov 3, 2016 8:10am
Quoting Lock
Current tools used in Lock's Cable Corner. In this post I attached in a single zip most of the tools I'm using to work in this thread. Presets are included. They are all updated. Anyway remember that I'm not a pro coder and they could include errors. I also add a clean template as a base to put all the tools you will decide to employ. Note that I use "scale fix". So if you want to do the same in order to adjust the TPO visualization at wiil: pres F8 on the selected chart and set "scale fix" to on. Best L. This is the coplete lists of the contents:...
I just wanted to use/test the single scripts.... but anyone of them doesn't work. If I attach them to the chart. actually nothing happen? What I'm doing wrong here!

ps: The MarketProfile tool is working oke!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,545
  • Edited 11:51am Nov 3, 2016 8:38am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} In fact as you see current G is retracing a big portion of the minus development left downside by the weak hands piling on the initial move. Now I'm really off. Please preserve your questions fot this evening. Best L.

when you say "weak hands" are you referring to locals (Dalton) or something else?

what indicates weak hands elongated it? (the double print E & G at the top of London session? and/ or at the top of the pit session B & C one tick short of the extreme?) (news)
  • #1,546
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:37pm Nov 3, 2016 6:37pm
On this double whammy I'm looking for a longer and more meaningful reversal given that UK exit will no longer be a hard Brexit on the UK High Court's decision. The other reason is the BOE's reversal on the economic assessment means no rate cute and no more QE. This is just the kind of news to trigger a change of direction on these pound crosses that can last a couple weeks at least.

I did a basket trade buying GBP/JPY GBP/AUD GBP/NZD GBP/USD and I sold EUR/GBP.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,547
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:06am Nov 4, 2016 3:06am
16/11/04 FRIDAY 09:06+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

GB opened with a little gap above yesterday GB session high at 24516.We are just below an old huge GB gap downside from 10.05 (2477-26527).

Main referneces for current session are clearly the second weekly balance high at 24437 (the natural target reached yesterday), the nearest composite poc at 2433 and the minus development left downside by yesterday GB action at 23678-2393.

The rules are the same as in the case of a gap: if the gap upside is not retraced quickly we could continue higher form here starting a filling of the huge old gap downside. If instead it will be retraced quickly we could see price correcting some of the very long inventories left by yesterday action. Considering the huge movement of the yesterday GB session, balance is also possible.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,548
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:12am Nov 4, 2016 3:12am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} I just wanted to use/test the single scripts.... but anyone of them doesn't work. If I attach them to the chart. actually nothing happen? What I'm doing wrong here! ps: The MarketProfile tool is working oke!

I don't know what could be your issue. First of all these scripts work as drag and drop: so you have to open your navigator panel and drag and drop the selected script directly over the chart in the selected position. Let me know if you are using this method or not. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,549
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:20am Nov 4, 2016 3:20am
Quoting Zaak
{quote} when you say "weak hands" are you referring to locals (Dalton) or something else? what indicates weak hands elongated it? (the double print E & G at the top of London session? and/ or at the top of the pit session B & C one tick short of the extreme?) (news)
As written numerous time in this thread stronger timeframes do not act slaughtering a market with sharp fast moves like this one. So first of all those who produce this move upside were not the strongest partecipants of this market. They probably were slightly bigger timeframe than daily. After they started the move then all the littler timeframes (the weakest hands in a market) started to pile on as normal: how do I know it? Because I saw who were the partecipants involved before this move, I knew who started this move and I knew who could possibly pile on such a move after it started: again, stronger timeframes did not pile on such moves. They make a market and they do not follow it on the spot of a single sharp move. Then, yes, the presence of a poor high let me think that we had an other confirmation of the absence in this move of stronger timeframes, because if the move was supported by stronger timeframes they will never be stopped at an exact reference like a double high. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,550
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:24am Nov 4, 2016 3:24am
Quoting Lock
{quote} I don't know what could be your issue. First of all these scripts work as drag and drop: so you have to open your navigator panel and drag and drop the selected script directly over the chart in the selected position. Let me know if you are using this method or not. Best L.
indeed that is how I do it.... I don't see the problem....mhhh
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,551
  • Edited 4:16am Nov 4, 2016 3:28am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting Temujin
On this double whammy I'm looking for a longer and more meaningful reversal given that UK exit will no longer be a hard Brexit on the UK High Court's decision. The other reason is the BOE's reversal on the economic assessment means no rate cute and no more QE. This is just the kind of news to trigger a change of direction on these pound crosses that can last a couple weeks at least. I did a basket trade buying GBP/JPY GBP/AUD GBP/NZD GBP/USD and I sold EUR/GBP.
Your opinions about macro economics are very interesting and I took them in the needed consideration. Surely we could not trading in a vacuum and we need to be aware of what surrounds current price action. So thanks for your notes here.
Note anyway that the way market prifile organize data generally embeds those information: so generally you could be able to understand what is going on reading Market Generated Information provided by MP. The thing that MGI could not provide are information about exogenous events: for this reason macro economic and other sources of data could be very usefull to prevent those possible events. Exactly as you prevent them Wednsday when you post your considerations about the volatility expected for the next day due to the upcoming decisions in GB. So thanks again. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,552
  • Nov 4, 2016 3:29am Nov 4, 2016 3:29am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} indeed that is how I do it.... I don't see the problem....mhhh
Sorry about that. So for now use the old ones. Than this evening we will try to solve the issue with the needed tests. Best L.

PS: a silly question: do you put the scripts in the script folder? Plus: is your mt4 build 1010?
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,553
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:22am Nov 4, 2016 4:22am
Quoting Zaak
{quote} have they gone off the screen to the very far right? try moving the chart shift to the left and maybe they will show on the right.
No, I also can't see them in the "Indicators list" So they are not on the chart after I drop them...

I will look this evening/weekend to it...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,554
  • Nov 4, 2016 5:27am Nov 4, 2016 5:27am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} No, I also can't see them in the "Indicators list" So they are not on the chart after I drop them... I will look this evening/weekend to it...
You have not to see them in the indicator list because they are not indicators at all. They are scripts executing only once, so after the creation of the references they will not be anymore on the chart.

Let me know a thing: do you see them in the script list of the navigator panel or in the indicator list of it? The correct place as written is in the script list. Also in the script panel you have to put both the mq4 and the ext4 files.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,555
  • Nov 4, 2016 5:33am Nov 4, 2016 5:33am
Quoting Lock
{quote} You have not to see them in the indicator list because they are not indicators at all. They are scripts executing only once, so after the creation of the references they will not be anymore on the chart. Let me know a thing: do you see them in the script list of the navigator panel or in the indicator list of it? The correct place as written is in the script list. Also in the script panel you have to put both the mq4 and the ext4 files.
Oh gosh....

Yep that's it, Thanks!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,556
  • Nov 4, 2016 5:36am Nov 4, 2016 5:36am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Oh gosh.... Yep that's it, Thanks!!
Fine. You're wellcome.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,557
  • Nov 4, 2016 8:46am Nov 4, 2016 8:46am
16/11/04 FRIDAY 14:46+1GMT (updated untill 14:53)
EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

Quoting Lock
16/11/04 FRIDAY 09:06+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT GB opened with a little gap above yesterday GB session high at 24516.We are just below an old huge GB gap downside from 10.05 (2477-26527). ... The rules are the same as in the case of a gap: if the gap upside is not retraced quickly we could continue higher form here starting a filling of the huge old gap downside. ... Considering the huge movement of the yesterday GB session, balance is also possible.
GB normaly spent its entire session to balance just above the new gap higher. At the same time filling some of the old huge gap downside.
PreUS opened inside yesterday preUS range 24184-24936 (initial acceptaion of yesterday range expected and infact it occurred as normal)
Current preUS high tagging GB high 24933 is extremely weak.(it is also a TAG of round 2500) Pit US opened with a gap above yesterday pit high 2469, but remember that GB B period low was at GB open 2466 and preUS B period low was at yesterday pit open 2467: so these refs are both weak as well.

PS: note that we got a double pass pit gap at 2469-24853. This space separed current pit action from the rest of the market below. This zone could attract price in order to fill it or could, if left untouched, produce a huge island reversal.

PPS: note that above we got the old huge pit gap downside up to 26015.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,558
  • Nov 4, 2016 10:55am Nov 4, 2016 10:55am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Your opinions about macro economics are very interesting and I took them in the needed consideration. Surely we could not trading in a vacuum and we need to be aware of what surrounds current price action. So thanks for your notes here. Note anyway that the way market prifile organize data generally embeds those information: so generally you could be able to understand what is going on reading Market Generated Information provided by MP. The thing that MGI could not provide are information about exogenous events: for this reason macro economic...
Much thanks Lock. The hard Brexit scenario, stagnating economy, an increase in QE and a November rate cut were all considered and "priced in." The commonality among these factors was that they were potential future events with great probability among bank analysts. Then the two big anomalies were revealed this week that negated that future view. Like revelations in a movie we can now speculate that the ending is not so tragic. Very interesting how that change in foresight immediately affects the spot rate as a new potential future is surmised. Like the present GBP rates now have to measure up to that more likely future reality.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,559
  • Edited 10:05pm Nov 6, 2016 6:56pm | Edited 10:05pm
16/11/07 MONDAY 01:55 +1GMT (edited untill 04:16)
WEEKLY REPORT

In order to have a bigger perspective of what is going on I will present this analysis with a top down approach.

Monthly

After the failed break attempted above August balance (inside month of July) made by September, October successfully made a break below August balance low, managing to close below it. November is now filling some of the "clean" space left by the October break. If this space will be preserved after November close, we could have a new balance below the previous one: this will be very important in order to evaluate the strength of the possible continuation of the monthly trend downside.

  1. If infact November will close inside the upper balance (meaning inside August range) the attempted break downside will be considered failed too and, eventually, the two possible distributions will morph into a single united one.
  2. If instead the "clean" space will be preserved (meaning November close below July low and below August balance), we will have acceptation of the prices below the upper distribution and consequently this will underline a substantial strength and eventually a possible continuation of the major monthly trend downside.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Weekly

As assumed in the last Tuesday report the failure below the double weekly balance low could have led to a substantial correction up to the opposite side of that balance: the end of the last week confirmed that assuption. Also the weekly "one timeframing lower" of the last 8 week from week 09.04 has been interrupted, because the last week high took out the previous 3 week highs in a row.

Now, in order to have a confirmation of the possible reversal of the wekly trend downside we have to see current week close above the balance high, meaning 24437. If not, meaning if current week will close below balance high, we will only confirm the current balance environment and the interruption of the previous weekly trend downside.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily

As you see we are in a daily up trend as confirmed by the "one timeframing mode" from 10.28 Friday low: day "1" low didn't take out day"zero" low as day "2" didn't take out day"1" low and so on up to last Friday low 11.04.
Note that current low is tagging Friday low. Generally in order to have a confirmation of the continuation upside we should see it remaining as it is now (only a tag). But consider that a single interruption of the onetimeframing higher could not be so determinant in order to have a confirmation of the stop of the uptrend.
A single stop is generally normal in order to adjust inventories. If more than one in the same trend then it start to be relevant at least to consider that trend "aged".

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Sessions

In the sessions visualization we could observe a lot of nuances that present the current daily uptrend in a different way. What could be seen as an healthy action upside watching the daily progression in a normal chart, looks very different considering the way this action actually occurred. First of all all this move is supported by very weak references left downside, session after session. At the end of this note I'll put a "complete" list of them*.
Furthermore this action presents very elongated profiles, specially for Thursday GB session and a lot of gap upside both of GB and Pit sessions. The presence of numerous anomalies in the last pit profile completes this weak picture.
All these considerations lead me to consider this move as mainly conducted by weak hands traders in a condition of great emotion.
Obviously not only "day timeframes traders" because the fact that it is in a daily one timeframe higher mode for 5 days suggests at least the presence of slightly bigger timeframes involved (those who could support a move for more than a couple of days)
Anyway, for now it looks like a short covering of the inventories too short built coming down exactly in the same emotional way.

To understand who are the current leaders of this market we could wait and see how all the weaknesses left downside will be considered by upcoming sessions: in particular it will be very interesting to evaluate the reaction at the presence of 2 double pass pit gap at 24685-24855 and 23365-23445. Two of them in a row is very very suspect. (and rare if preserved)

Also note the back to back preUS and pit US lows made on thursday at 2418 level and the minus development left by the very elongated session of the same day at 2368-2393.

For the "upside" situation, clearly the main consideration to do is about the huge GB gap downside left from the low of the 10.06 session at 2652. Note that last Friday GB session filled only a little part of it and that it is now still more than 150 pips. Also inside it we have a pit session gap still in place from the top of the Friday pit session at 25565 to the low of the 10.06 pit session at 2601.

If both these gaps will be filled and we will not see a strong reaction above them (meaning strong sellers above them) we will enter in the upper weekly (and monthly) distribution, meaning that all the weaknesses left at the top of it (and the relative stops positioned above it) will then enter in the viewfinder of bigger market participants. If not filled, or if filled and than rejection above them, we will see with any probability a new attempt downside for a better "all time" lower low and the relative correction of all the very bad weaknesses left downside.

*A list of the main weak references left downside:

  1. US PIT 10.28 poor low at 21365.
  2. US PIT 11.01 poor low at 22135.
  3. GB 11.02 poor low at 22537.
  4. Sydney 11.02*03 poor low at 2296.
  5. DOUBLE PASS PIT GAP at 23365-23445.
  6. GB 11.03 minus development at 2368-2393.
  7. Back to back preUS and pit US 11.03 lows at 2418 level.
  8. Tokyo 11.04 poor low tagged by today Sydney low at 24485 level.

A FINAL NOTE: we are in a waiting time for the upcoming election day and generally when a market is in a waiting mode it tend to do 2 things, sharp emotional moves due to rumors and/or strict balance around composite pocs (poles of attraction for weak participants) So, the gaps and the minus development are generally the spaces fitted for the "sharp emotional moves" and you know where those gaps are close to current price location. About the POCs the closest are at 2464(around current price action), 2293 (below) and 2643 (above).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,560
  • Nov 7, 2016 6:59am Nov 7, 2016 6:59am
13:59+1GMT

Note that if pit session will open around here, we will have a triple pass pit gap at 24685-24855 because preUS is going to open with a substantial gap down from Friday pit low at 24855: carry this info forward.
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