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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,521
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:52am Nov 2, 2016 9:52am
Both your considerations are very opportune and reasonable. I will not trade too. There is too volatility. And probably there will be more than this. Anyway I will observe market as always. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,522
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:54am Nov 2, 2016 9:54am
15:54 Weak composite low is no more. It looks like the rejection above the weekly balance high was pretty serious. But let's see.
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  • #1,523
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:55am Nov 2, 2016 9:55am
Just how it's very resilient to go below 1.2100 and how the UK economy has done so much better than though of post Brexit, long positioning is the way now I think. Buy dips. After DEC there will probably be only 1 more rate hike in the U.S. if any. Shorts are peaked out on GBP just like the USD index is over stretched to the upside. We are going to see a huge short squeeze at some point and tomorrow's news could be the trigger.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,524
  • Nov 2, 2016 10:00am Nov 2, 2016 10:00am
Quoting Lock
13:52+1GMT A fast recap: first weekly balance at 23317 that could attract a test by upcoming pit session. old pit gap downside at 23246-23444: also this could attract pit session action in order to fill it. old pit us poor high are below here at 23218, 22739 and 2254: we need only to have upcoming pit opening above the last one (23218) to consider all of them corrected.
Quoting Lock
Downside we left 2 poor lows for pit session at 22137 and 21364 plus a minus development at 21776-21995. Note also that current preUS session is very elongated and that the GB session supporting current action has been extraordinary weak. (with a poor low at 2254 and some minus development for G 2284-2292 and H 2299-2304.) ....
16:00

  1. Upside pit session filled a good part of the old gap downside, tested the weekly balance and remove all the poor highs left upside.
  2. Downside both the minus development revisited by price. The upper one has been totally filled while the second one only partially filled.

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  • #1,525
  • Nov 2, 2016 10:04am Nov 2, 2016 10:04am
Quoting Temujin
Just how it's very resilient to go below 1.2100 and how the UK economy has done so much better than though of post Brexit, long positioning is the way now I think. Buy dips. After DEC there will probably be only 1 more rate hike in the U.S. if any. Shorts are peaked out on GBP just like the USD index is over stretched to the upside. We are going to see a huge short squeeze at some point and tomorrow's news could be the trigger.
Surely the structure downside is very weak and we have not a good low but a Sydney one. About the timing I have no idea: we have a lot of things that could trigger a correction. Anyway I will not forget that also the GB structure upside is extraordinary weak. And a lot of what we have seen downsie looks moved by emotion more than real conviction.
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  • #1,526
  • Nov 2, 2016 10:05am Nov 2, 2016 10:05am
I'll be off untill big news. Have a good continuation. Best L.
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  • #1,527
  • Nov 2, 2016 12:52pm Nov 2, 2016 12:52pm
18:54 +1GMT (edit untill 59)
A fast recap.

  1. During the last US action we only see liquidation of inventories too long made untill preUS B period high at 2354. See the perfect "b" shape of the composite profile preUS+pitUS.
  2. Current C low is suspect as it is GB half back at 2868.
  3. Pit session tested the weekly balance high only once at 23317.
  4. We still have a gap upside above yesterday pit high at 2254.
  5. And the old pit gap downside has not been filled yet at 2337-23444.
  6. H period is weak as it is at open price 23155.
  7. Substantially all the nearest weaknesses above have been removed. The real weaknesses are now downside: so if price will go higher form here we could imagine some new stronger buyer will be the actor of this possible continuation upside.
  8. if it will go lower, the main poc at 2233 is very possible.

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  • #1,528
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:40pm Nov 2, 2016 1:40pm
19:39 +1GMT I see nothing here but a lot of confusion. It could continue lower down to the main poc or it could remain here in balance. But I really don't know what this maket want to do and I'm really very tired. So let's see tomorrow. Obviously all the refs of the previous posts are valid. C low has already been removed. I'm off and have a nice continuation. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,529
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:53pm Nov 2, 2016 9:53pm
Quoting Lock
19:39 +1GMT I see nothing here but a lot of confusion. It could continue lower down to the main poc or it could remain here in balance. But I really don't know what this maket want to do and I'm really very tired. So let's see tomorrow. Obviously all the refs of the previous posts are valid. C low has already been removed. I'm off and have a nice continuation. Best L.
Buy it when it tanks. Dang, I bought at 1.2150 and closed at 100 pips but didn't re-buy when it tanked. Missed out on this resurgence before the UK High Court decision.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,530
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:56pm Nov 2, 2016 9:56pm
One more push down and SELL EUR/GBP, BUY GBP/JPY and BUY GBP/USD.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,531
  • Edited 1:50am Nov 3, 2016 1:25am | Edited 1:50am
16/11/03 THURSDAY 07:25+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

First of all a little note about the way I'm carrying out this thread: after many weeks of detailed chat I decided to continue here posting only one or more report during each day. Because the efforts needed to write down all the information I got during trading hours is really too demanding and I'm seriously risking to lose opportunities while doing so, specially with the volatility we are experiencing these days. In any case you have weeks of past written examples to read again to know more about the market nuances I generally underline in my posts.
Also I will answer late in the day or during evening trime any question about technical aspects of the tools used here or about the market profile: consider that the purpose of this thread was not aimed to them.

Now the early morning report.

Yesterday price tested with both US sessions the first weekly bracket high at 23317: for now we got no acceptation above it. Also GB session made a spike test upside with its last 2 periods G and H, but it left downside a very suspect poor low at 2254.
When a session make a spike it could mean that its participants need more information to evaluate reactions at particular levels. As you remember the 11.01 GB session made exactly the same test downside (spike base at 22388): so in the first 2 days of the month GB participants made 2 separate tests one downside and one upside.

About the last upside (spike base at 22837) you have to apply the spike "rules": if upcoming GB session will open above the spike (23194) or at least well above its base (22837) we could read this simple fact as a form of initial acceptation of that test upside, meaning possible continuation upwards for the new GB session.
If instead the upcoming GB session will open below the spike base ar around it (very close to it) we could read this as a possible rejection of the test and consequently we could experience a GB session in balance (because it will open inside yesterday range) or even downwards.

Note that above current price position we have the old GB gap downside from 10.10.(23316-23663) If we will have continuation upwards for upcoming GB session this space will need a consistent fill: so you could expect some time spent over it by GB.

Remember that while if we will have continuation upwards the possible target is the second weekly balance high at 24437, if something will go wrong upside the possible result could be a strong correction back to the main composite poc at 2233. And as you see we left downside a GB poor low right above it at 2254 (e very suspect one)

TECH NOTE: (added at 07:50) I attached here a mod of the tool used to move the txt references on the right. I noticed that it was engulfing the log file with its continuos print. I suggest to use the new one if you do not want to have a huge log file.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 LOCK_Move line TEXTS_01.ex4   8 KB | 276 downloads
File Type: mq4 LOCK_Move line TEXTS_01.mq4   2 KB | 349 downloads
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,532
  • Edited 5:49am Nov 3, 2016 4:20am | Edited 5:49am
London open, the Market opened above yesterdays range and so is out of balance. The open - auction structure suggests lack of conviction. But, because it is out of balance there is potential for a move in one direction or other, possibly a double distribution. Currently, there is no evidence of active other timeframe participants apart from those that caused the shift to outside the previous days range.
  • #1,533
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:00am Nov 3, 2016 6:00am
12:00+1GMT
LATE MORNING REPORT

Quoting Lock
16/11/03 THURSDAY 07:25+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ... About the last upside (spike base at 22837) you have to apply the spike "rules": if upcoming GB session will open above the spike (23194) or at least well above its base (22837) we could read this simple fact as a form of initial acceptation of that test upside, meaning possible continuation upwards for the new GB session...
GB opens above spike with a gap above it: strong acceptation of the yesterday test upside, because we have price above the spike base and price above yesterday range.

Quoting Lock
Note that above current price position we have the old GB gap downside from 10.10.(23316-23663) If we will have continuation upwards for upcoming GB session this space will need a consistent fill: so you could expect some time spent over it by GB.
GB spent its initial 4 period to fill the old gap downside and only when the entire gap has been filled price eventually started to rally upwards.

Quoting Lock
Remember that while if we will have continuation upwards the possible target is the second weekly balance high at 24437,
Target taken out.

Now take with the needed caution current move for 2 reasons: 1st because it left downside a huge minus development 23678-2420. 2nd Because it is building an anomalous gap higher for upcoming preUS session: now already of 100 pips.
I'm not saying the move is already over, I'm saying that is pretty dangerous downside if it will not correct some of the inventories and some of the minus development.
Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,534
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:08am Nov 3, 2016 6:08am
Quoting Lock
12:00+1GMT LATE MORNING REPORT {quote} GB opens above spike with a gap above it: strong acceptation of the yesterday test upside, because we have price above the spike base and price above yesterday range. {quote} GB spent its initial 4 period to fill the old gap downside and only when the entire gap has been filled price eventually started to rally upwards. {quote} Target taken out. Now take with the needed caution current move for 2 reasons: 1st because it left downside a huge minus development 23678-2420. 2nd Because...
Maybe I have the wrong settings but I do not see how the gap has been filled.
Also using again the settings of last week the gap is not filled.

My broker is GMT +1
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  • #1,535
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:08am Nov 3, 2016 6:08am
Quoting Zaak
London open, the Market opened above yesterdays range and so is out of balance. The open - auction structure suggests lack of conviction. But, because it is out of balance there is potential for a move in one direction or other, possibly a double distribution. Currently, there is no evidence of active other timeframe participants apart from those that caused the shift to outside the previous days range.
Very good analysis. The only thing you should have give more emphasis was the presence of two excess in the same direction: the spike was a form of excess as it was the gap higher above it. When you have 2 excess in the same direction is a must do buy position (obviously if the excess are upwards as in this case). Also the filling of the gap could be read only as indecision if you don't know that this was a very needed and normal behaviour in order to continue higher with more strength and conviction.

Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,536
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:11am Nov 3, 2016 6:11am
Quoting Devart
{quote} Maybe I have the wrong settings but I do not see how the gap has been filled. Also using again the settings of last week the gap is not filled. My broker is GMT +1 {image} {image}
The gap filled was the one left from 10.10 GB session low. USe old settings to visualize it. It was a gap between 10.10 and 10.11 GB sessions.
I'm off the thread again.
Best L.

PS: if you understood where it was the gap, please remove your post I'll do the same for mine. Best again. L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,537
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:14am Nov 3, 2016 6:14am
Quoting Lock
12:00+1GMT LATE MORNING REPORT {quote} GB opens above spike with a gap above it: strong acceptation of the yesterday test upside, because we have price above the spike base and price above yesterday range. {quote} GB spent its initial 4 period to fill the old gap downside and only when the entire gap has been filled price eventually started to rally upwards. {quote} Target taken out. Now take with the needed caution current move for 2 reasons: 1st because it left downside a huge minus development 23678-2420. 2nd Because it is building an anomalous...
Hi Lock....What are you saying ...?!

you take the current move with the needed caution (I think this is the up-move...probably that's already a mistake from my side because of the rest of the text....)...?!
then you speak about the hudge eventually gap and mius development.... and you speak about the dangerous downside if it is not correcting a little

So actually you are saying be carefull it could have a nice correction here before an eventually up-move...

Mhhh it's sometimes difficult to understand what you mean.... because sometimes it's just if I miss some text. Probably it's because you know exactly where you're talking about and with that you skip some steps in writing ...I think...

Anyway...I love this thread!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,538
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:15am Nov 3, 2016 6:15am
Quoting Lock
{quote} The gap filled was the one left from 10.10 GB session low. USe old settings to visualize it. It was a gap between 10.10 and 10.11 GB sessions. I'm off the thread again. Best L. PS: if you understood where it was the gap, please remove your post I'll do the same for mine. Best again. L.
I have this gap, I was thinking that you were speaking about the gap with UK session of yesterday.
It is a weird situation.
Huge minus development down but we have many many gaps (UK, PIT) before 10.10
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  • #1,539
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:21am Nov 3, 2016 6:21am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Hi Lock....What are you saying ...?! you take the current move with the needed caution (I think this is the up-move...probably that's already a mistake from my side because of the rest of the text....)...?! then you speak about the hudge eventually gap and mius development.... and you speak about the dangerous downside if it is not correcting a little So actually you are saying be carefull it could have a nice correction here before an eventually up-move... Mhhh it's sometimes difficult to understand what you mean.... because sometimes it's...

Let me explain: the fact that this move had a strong support by the 2 "composite" excess was the factor that ignited this move upside, but then all the other weak hands piled on it and made the current extreme elongation of current GB session. So, the fact that it was a strong supported move do not contrast with the fact that its elongation is currently weak because the partecipants who act in this movve are different in the first portion of it and in the last part of it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,540
  • Nov 3, 2016 6:22am Nov 3, 2016 6:22am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Very good analysis. The only thing you should have give more emphasis was the presence of two excess in the same direction: the spike was a form of excess as it was the gap higher above it. When you have 2 excess in the same direction is a must do buy position (obviously if the excess are upwards as in this case). Also the filling of the gap could be read only as indecision if you don't know that this was a very needed and normal behaviour in order to continue higher with more strength and conviction. Best L.
I'm unsure what you mean, do you mean the previous days H print is one spike/excess and the gap being the high of yesterday and the London open?

it would be really helpful to understand this.
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