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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,721
  • Edited 1:30pm Nov 2, 2016 1:13pm | Edited 1:30pm
CME Group indicator was showing 91% chance of no hike November. Bloomie was showing 1 in 6 or something like that
  • #144,722
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:25pm Nov 2, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
CME Group indicator was showing 91% chance of rate hike November. Bloomie was showing 1 in 6 or something like that
Not at all , I think you read it in the wrong way ...91% was the probability of holding the current rate for November .

Currently , CME Group indicator shows 71% for Dec hike .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,723
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:27pm Nov 2, 2016 1:27pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Same here added some more ... Last we had momentum play out here on the same level ... If got breached will get s/o in no time ... Edit : if got stopped not trading it until election is over will leave everything as it is .... It was purely RMT ... Not a single retrace ... Bastards will squeeze till the last penny ...
I was out within 2 minutes after inline news (no yummy surprise) and going flat into NFP...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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PVSRA
  • #144,724
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:28pm Nov 2, 2016 1:28pm
Quoting change
{quote} ... Waiting to see if eu reaches 11.2 or not
got it

now waiting dust to settle, ready to short but with caution, don't trust risk play via fbi/election (am i paranoid?)
  • #144,725
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:29pm Nov 2, 2016 1:29pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} Not at all , I think you read it in the wrong way ...91% was the probability of holding the current rate for November . Currently , CME Group indicator shows 71% for Dec hike .
Damnit! I had a feeling I was reading it wrong because bloomie was the other way, I made that mistake last time as well and I believe you corrected me. I keep looking at the first bar as the hike chance, not the "stay the same" chance..and not bothering to look at the bps on the bottom.

Will correct my post thank you
  • #144,726
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:30pm Nov 2, 2016 1:30pm
That was it ... For the FED

A quick shout @USD-Bear..... Nicely done on the FTSE move, you may get a major ÂJackpot if the US shoot themselves in the foot next week...

Best trade in the thread in the last few weeks...

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
CME Group indicator was showing 91% chance of rate hike November. Bloomie was showing 1 in 6 or something like that
Not sure what u are looking at. We will jump from +/- 70 to +90 by Friday NFP....
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,727
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:45pm Nov 2, 2016 1:45pm
. For entries simple stop limit entries for momentum plays are the no brainer this time both for short and mid term legs and they extend till NFP so clear and simple trades setups. GL all... sisse[/quote]
Sorry to bother but the stop limit for momentum is the range 1.bottom or a 2.rejection entry in today’s play
1. would be 1.091 and
2. around 1.105 on daily
regards
  • #144,728
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:47pm Nov 2, 2016 1:47pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I was out within 2 minutes after inline news (no yummy surprise) and going flat into NFP... {image}
Closed short @ +15 ... 
Not trading any more today ... Not yet flat for nfp/election ... Will be managing the trades of midterm .... 
 
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,729
  • Nov 2, 2016 3:23pm Nov 2, 2016 3:23pm
[quote=sisse;9232502]That was it ... For the FED A quick shout @USD-Bear..... Nicely done on the FTSE move, you may get a major Jackpot if the US shoot themselves in the foot next week... Best trade in the thread in the last few weeks... sisse

thanks sisse must confess I'm still not so sure on this position @ 7010
It was hard to get took 2 BE's and 1 slight loss to finally get a more stickier one
I feel the psychology of the market is still not a give up one for bulls so still might lose this one too but that's all in the game
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #144,730
  • Nov 2, 2016 5:33pm Nov 2, 2016 5:33pm
Interesting, FED day and almost 0 input from the fabled "top 20"

lets see some maps and thoughts!
  • #144,731
  • Edited 6:34pm Nov 2, 2016 5:52pm | Edited 6:34pm
Can't map it on my phone but will try. My plan is to wait for a short entries between 1230 and 1280. Stops at 1330 and tp1 right above 1120, tp2 right above 0964 tp3 way down low somewhere in the 06xx area. Chances of getting entry like that may be less realistic than I think with FOMC out of the way but it's free to wait and see. Caught myself chart fitting a plan last night and killed the idea this morning. This plan I live with better even if it never sees light.

Ok something like this is best I can do on a 5"screen:
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  • #144,732
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:34pm Nov 2, 2016 6:34pm
Are Short term Neutral , Attached is probably my plan for NFP .

Rate hike IMO priced in.
Market currently trade Presidental election fear , USD bearish.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,733
  • Nov 2, 2016 8:16pm Nov 2, 2016 8:16pm
Nice maps, and actually both your maps play into each other hehe
  • #144,734
  • Nov 2, 2016 8:49pm Nov 2, 2016 8:49pm
Quoting Earleone
Are Short term Neutral , Attached is probably my plan for NFP . Rate hike IMO priced in. Market currently trade Presidental election fear , USD bearish. {image}
While there's a good chance you might be right and EU has more to climb, it's also the classic scenario where we try and catch a sly one against the trend and then get caught when it suddenly reverses back to the original direction (as I've been caught myself way too often!) Maybe I'm just chicken (no maybe about it I am ha! ) but I wouldn't be going long here but rather wait and if it does go up to your TP areas (also those shorting areas in Goosebone's map) then I'd be taking a few short positions on the way up there. Anyways as far as I remember sisse has us in "sell" outlook so another reason not to long, and even if outlook is neutral are you not still trading in the middle of the range with your limit order which should be avoided?
Best of luck of course if it works out
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #144,735
  • Nov 3, 2016 2:24am Nov 3, 2016 2:24am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} While there's a good chance you might be right and EU has more to climb, it's also the classic scenario where we try and catch a sly one against the trend and then get caught when it suddenly reverses back to the original direction (as I've been caught myself way too often!) Maybe I'm just chicken (no maybe about it I am ha! ) but I wouldn't be going long here but rather wait and if it does go up to your TP areas (also those shorting areas in Goosebone's map) then I'd be taking a few short positions on the way up there. Anyways as...
I also take this to consideration.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45#post9230445

Presidental election is in the driver seat stronger then the rate hike imo. Trump has warned that he will not accept result if he is not the winning part. I also see the possibility it can be undecided who becomes the next president in US for weeks after election.

I will not make final decision about this one before close to NFP data release.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,736
  • Nov 3, 2016 2:41am Nov 3, 2016 2:41am
Quoting Fisher755
AJ.. Managed to make almost perfect entry according to the map....posted as encouregement to others and to show that no matter how good your trading is you can improve with Sisse's valuable posts. So thanks again, Sisse. This one is for you. {image}
AJ...
Moved SL to +BE above H4 consolidation. I made small MM mistake ( only one EP), so either SL Will be hit or TP1. Next time can be better..
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PVSRA
  • #144,737
  • Nov 3, 2016 3:48am Nov 3, 2016 3:48am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I also take this to consideration. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45#post9230445 Presidental election is in the driver seat stronger then the rate hike imo. Trump has warned that he will not accept result if he is not the winning part. I also see the possibility it can be undecided who becomes the next president in US for weeks after election. I will not make final decision about this one before close to NFP data release.
Elections put a lot of risk on opening new trade this days.

I'm flat now and evaluating short on EU and long on UJ but with a lot of caution, maybe wait after results (as sisse pointed out better a missed trade than a trade in your face)

For the moment EU and UJ had little reaction on two easy levels, let'see
  • #144,738
  • Nov 3, 2016 4:27am Nov 3, 2016 4:27am
Hey everybody.

The attached image is originally from Genesis Matrix Trading thread. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6162000


The guy posted it says that there is a bearish stoch divergence that could be spotted on the vertical dash line.


Can anybody show it to me, please?


Thanks in advance!
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  • #144,739
  • Nov 3, 2016 4:37am Nov 3, 2016 4:37am
So here is the short term map - we got back to flip - still ST sell - map remains the same for me - so far no reason to readjust the lvls. the moment we clear elections the ST can continue. however, the top of the retrace is here now (based on sisse posts too)

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Looking more closely. I took the short term positions today - see chart - thats the sub-short term flow I expect til the election (Im gonna fold in case of a NFP flop).

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the moment we clear election Im gonna play the game mid term too. as we are at the top of the range in mid term sell outlook.

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  • #144,740
  • Nov 3, 2016 4:49am Nov 3, 2016 4:49am
Quoting Botan626
Hey everybody. The attached image is originally from Genesis Matrix Trading thread. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...00#post6162000 The guy posted it says that there is a bearish stoch divergence that could be spotted on the vertical dash line. Can anybody show it to me, please? Thanks in advance! {image}
Babypips explain this things very well. Try to read back some 100 pages or sow in this thread and spend your time for that instead of trying to catch the runner on 5M tf. It will save you time and money in your trading education.
Trading in the shadow of SM
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