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  • #144,701
  • Nov 2, 2016 5:23am Nov 2, 2016 5:23am
i have a question as like now how will you define that how much % Price is priced in for a rate hike expectation ... ?

retraced almost +/- 250 pips and todays fed hike expectation is almost zero .... expecting inline/neutral from today's meet ,....
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,702
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:15am Nov 2, 2016 6:15am
More relatively good numbers from the EZ keep coming and ECB QE slow down is getting unlocked as soon as we pass the Hike/election combo. Euro cleaned the 1.090x and 1.10xx handle in just one tweet!!!. Stops naked for the FED today and knocking the handle with reports will leave a massive wide range open for the FED and election. For now back 1.108x for the FED.

Quoting goosebone
Totally amazing to me the "there's no difference between the two" and "they are both just as bad" c....a.
Absolutely agree with you. The zombies and the unaware are getting suck in justifying a lunatic is ok because the other alternative represent the establishment. So far from the true.... making them sound in the same league is master stroke from the nutter PR campaign....

...we'll talk politics later after hours, for now we have so much action in the markets ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,703
  • Nov 2, 2016 8:56am Nov 2, 2016 8:56am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}buying UVXY shares is one way to go if you are doing it strategically and with discipline....just a short-term trade if you are stalking a volatility event. I prefer to use a variety of spreads, as they're cheaper and can return much more. The calendar shown will pay well if UVXY rises into election day, with a huge profit range above $20. I would take something off on Nov 08 and let some ride til expiry of the spread on 11/11. If UVXY is below $30 on 11/11. I would let the following week's calls run alone, which is where the huge profit...
So tell me if I understand this strategy correctly: You sold 10 contracts uvxy 30 calls at $24/pc +commission with expiry at 11/11. At the same time bought 10 call contracts with same strike at same price but expiry of 11/18. As price moves your trade is hedged (so to speak) with the exeption of time value between the two expiry dates until the 11th (should you hold through til then) when you will only be long the calls for the 18th. Should price climb above 30 at any point you are sitting in the money managing rewards on the trade. Should it remain where it is now you will be eating what you spent on the options but that's all. Should it drop significantly you'll be hoping for enough profit on the short side before the 11th to cover the cost of the options or much better than that. And the most profitable scenario is a dip before the 11th and pump over 30 after that by the 18th.
I'm sure I'm misunderstanding plenty of it and leaving out important elements of the strategy but wanted to see if I'm anywhere close. Thanks.
  • #144,704
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:07am Nov 2, 2016 9:07am
Just in case anyone is interested - interesting article by Zakaria on Trump and the others and the economic reality of west. to cheer up our waiting for FED


https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...populism-march
  • #144,705
  • Nov 2, 2016 9:53am Nov 2, 2016 9:53am
Quoting goosebone
So tell me if I understand this strategy correctly: You sold 10 contracts uvxy 30 calls at $24/pc +commission with expiry at 11/11. At the same time bought 10 call contracts with same strike at same price but expiry of 11/18. ......
No. Looking at the current pricing, the UVXY Nov 8/Nov 11 call calendar works like this: I sell the front week (Nov08) call for a 55c credit and I buy the back week (Nov11) calls for a 84c debit, for a combined net debit of 29c, or $29 per contract. $29/contract is the max loss I can incur on a calendar like this.

The profit/loss diagram changes over time and I show that in the little vid, from today to the front option expiry of 11/11. The premise of the trade is: implied volatilities will be rising into Election Day, UVXY will be moving up above $20, and the trade will go into profit for both those reasons. I can take profit at any time by buying back the front and selling the back options contracts in equal numbers.

The real reason I might put on this trade is to catch a further volatility spike past Election Day. If we get to expiry day (11/11) of the front option and UVXY trades <$30, those contracts expire worthless and I am left with the long Nov18 $30 calls for a debit of $29/contract. If UVXY spikes above $30 in the week after the election, those calls would go in the money and could be sold for profit. If UVXY spiked to $40, for instance, the $29 debit contracts would be worth $971 less comms.

http://screencast.com/t/Tgpgi2X7AT
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,706
  • Nov 2, 2016 10:05am Nov 2, 2016 10:05am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}No. Looking at the current pricing, the UVXY Nov 8/Nov 11 call calendar works like this: I sell the front week (Nov08) call for a 55c credit and I buy the back week (Nov11) calls for a 84c debit, for a combined net debit of 29c, or $29 per contract. $29/contract is the max loss I can incur on a calendar like this. The profit/loss diagram changes over time and I show that in the little vid, from today to the front option expiry of 11/11. The premise of the trade is: implied volatilities will be rising into Election Day, UVXY will be moving...
Thanks. Lol I was way off! I'll digest that here and see if I can grasp it better. Appreciate it.
  • #144,707
  • Nov 2, 2016 10:37am Nov 2, 2016 10:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}No. Looking at the current pricing, the UVXY Nov 8/Nov 11 call calendar works like this: I sell the front week (Nov08) call for a 55c credit and I buy the back week (Nov11) calls for a 84c debit, for a combined net debit of 29c, or $29 per contract. $29/contract is the max loss I can incur on a calendar like this. The profit/loss diagram changes over time and I show that in the little vid, from today to the front option expiry of 11/11. The premise of the trade is: implied volatilities will be rising into Election Day, UVXY will be moving...
I try to understand. Not sure if I do. When your Nov 08 calls expire . If then price goes to f.eks 54c on the 9th for the NOV 11 calls you was buying for 84c you sit on a DD or potential loss for 30$ ( 300$ in total ) since the Nov 08 expired worthless. So you can get further downside in the period between 8th and 11th?
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,708
  • Nov 2, 2016 11:05am Nov 2, 2016 11:05am
... and that was it. Clearing main target in US Equities right before the FED. 2100.xx unlocks final ext 2070.xx for a full RMT leg.

Sadly clean sweep in the Euro. 1.11xx knocked down and trailling and short term swing stops taken with it right before the FED.

Bastards play it flawlessly. Not discussion here. Failure to lock the 1.12xx handle on the M close just leave us with wide range for the FED/NFP/election combo.

Air in between 1.128x -> 1.091x for today.... details later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,709
  • Nov 2, 2016 11:09am Nov 2, 2016 11:09am
Quoting sisse
... and that was it. Clearing main target in US Equities right before the FED. 2100.xx unlocks final ext 2070.xx for a full RMT leg. Sadly clean sweep in the Euro. 1.11xx knocked down and trailling and short term swing stops taken with it right before the FED. Bastards play it flawlessly. Not discussion here. Failure to lock the 1.12xx handle on the M close just leave us with wide range for the FED/NFP/election combo. Air in between 1.128x -> 1.091x for today.... details later. sisse
I am still holding my midterm positions ... And this air just make me Nutts .. this play making me feel like fed going to hike today ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,710
  • Nov 2, 2016 11:30am Nov 2, 2016 11:30am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} I am still holding my midterm positions ... And this air just make me Nutts .. this play making me feel like fed going to hike today ...
I had the same feeling so opened first short here from previous breakdown point again just in case. Enough time to build it better next week and add more bullets if feeling wrong today. But this move up sure sucked some serious longs into mkt...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH4 Short open 2.11..png Size: 69 KB
PVSRA
  • #144,711
  • Nov 2, 2016 11:31am Nov 2, 2016 11:31am
Did those bastards got some leak ... ? I really don't see anything above the current level ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,712
  • Nov 2, 2016 11:32am Nov 2, 2016 11:32am
1.112x was on mine, hooms, and chesters map....I wouldnt go so far as to say unexpected...

dollar looks like it's trading air down to 96.30-96.50

My buy UJ is 102.62 as low as 101.64
  • #144,713
  • Nov 2, 2016 11:33am Nov 2, 2016 11:33am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I had the same feeling so opened first short here from previous breakdown point again just in case. Enough time to build it better next week and add more bullets if feeling wrong today. But this move up sure sucked some serious longs into mkt... {image}
Same here added some more ... Last we had momentum play out here on the same level ... If got breached will get s/o in no time ...
Â
Edit : if got stopped not trading it until election is over will leave everything as it is .... It was purely RMT ... Not a single retrace ... Bastards will squeeze till the last penny ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,714
  • Nov 2, 2016 12:06pm Nov 2, 2016 12:06pm
I'm actively looking for shorts on EU here as well, but don't forget all stops raise for news and especially FOMC, so plan accordingly or you'll be stopped out only to have the trade go back your way (if you're on the right side)
  • #144,715
  • Nov 2, 2016 12:18pm Nov 2, 2016 12:18pm
short around 1.1120 area

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...18#post9232218
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 99999.png Size: 31 KB
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #144,716
  • Nov 2, 2016 12:33pm Nov 2, 2016 12:33pm
Here we go for the FED.

-> On the fundamental side.

No expecting much for today. Basically to simple scenarios. Nothing new except take or put some wordings for hikes by default scenario.

Anything else [not expected at all] about concerns on inflation or employment will only shake out Dollar but not Equities.

-> On the technical side.

Simple choppy continuation in Equities and Commodities until elections in almost all scenarios. Â2000.xx ES, 1265 Gold and 49.3x Oil for the FED/NFP combo.

Dollar is a bit more interesting this time as elections have short-circuit the risk side especially clear in Euro (clear winner in all this) and Yen.

1.108x and 101.8x for mid term swing plays on rates by default. Anythng else is nothing to see till NFP

Any aggressive wording will create as sharp reaction on them creating a wide cluster fck till NFP and elections.

-> For the actual flows (Euro only).

As usual in announcement like this. All micro levels raised. 1.128x top, 1.091x bottom for the range that extends until NFP/elections.

Euro completed a full retrace in only a few sessions. Hikes by default or hawkish will mark the high of the Month on the current highs. Move split in 2 mini legs, NFP for momentum, clearing elections (without problems) for capitulation.

To the other side nit interested here for today and ony a fck up in NFP will make me consider riding the extension to he top on risk.

For entries simple stop limit entries for momentum plays are the no brainer this time both for short and mid term legs and they extend till NFP so clear and simple trades setups.

GL all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,717
  • Nov 2, 2016 12:39pm Nov 2, 2016 12:39pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I'm actively looking for shorts on EU here as well, but don't forget all stops raise for news and especially FOMC, so plan accordingly or you'll be stopped out only to have the trade go back your way (if you're on the right side)
Shorted , yes indeed removed s/l ... Will track it manually ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,718
  • Nov 2, 2016 12:52pm Nov 2, 2016 12:52pm
Your latest posts shows that your are doing everything but managing risk.

My 2 cents to you and a few others that are talking very amateurish. Define and manage risk beforehand not manually and emotionally.

If you are holding a turd already and you got it wrong that will be the end of your account (classic mistake) if you are right and you are not holding anything...the worst it can happen if you dont get any entry in the next 3 days is missing a trade...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,719
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:07pm Nov 2, 2016 1:07pm
Inline with expectations, slightly hawkish. Hikes by default..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,720
  • Nov 2, 2016 1:10pm Nov 2, 2016 1:10pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Shorted , yes indeed removed s/l ... Will track it manually ...
Not quite what I meant lol

I was thinking higher stop with less leverage, or waiting.

No worries now though
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